According to trade intelligence platform Kpler, since the Iran war began, more than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global ⁠market, in what seems to be the largest energy supply disruption of modern history. Talking about the immediate impact, Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told Reuters that the lost fuel may end up curtailing the aviation industry’s energy demand for 10 weeks.

In the Middle East, countries lost about eight million barrels per day of crude production in March, nearly equivalent to the combined production of Exxon Mobil and Chevron, two of the biggest ‌oil companies ⁠in the world. As per Kpler, jet fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman fell from about 19.6 million barrels in February, to just 4.1 million barrels for March and April so far combined.

“With crude prices averaging around USD 100 a barrel since the conflict began, those missing volumes represent roughly USD 50 billion ⁠in lost revenues,” said Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler.

The ratio equates to a 1% cut in Germany’s annual GDP, or roughly the entire GDP of smaller European countries such as Latvia or Estonia.

Kpler even stated that the resumption of energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz would mean little for the global economy, as recovery of ⁠output and flows will remain slow. While global onshore crude inventories have fallen by about 45 million barrels so far in April, production outages, since late March, have reached roughly 12 million bpd.

“Heavier crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq could take four to five months to return ⁠to normal operating levels, extending stock draws through the summer. Damage to refining capacity and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex means full restoration of regional energy infrastructure could take years,” Rauball concluded.

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The conflict between US-Israel and Iran, which began on February 28, has sent oil prices skyrocketing as much as 65%, with some energy production fields in the Middle East shutting down their activities after the Strait of Hormuz, that sees the passage of the 20%–25% of the world’s total seaborne oil and over 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, has been effectively closed, with Tehran using the marine chokepoint as a geopolitical leverage. Chevron’s upstream fourth-quarter 2025 earnings were USD 3.04 billion.

“Timing effects ⁠tied to hedging and accounting would weigh on first‑quarter results, cutting earnings and operating cash flow excluding working capital by USD 2.7 billion ⁠to USD 3.7 billion after tax, mainly downstream, though the impact is expected to reverse over time,” Exxon noted.

According to the LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) data, Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged USD 78.38 per barrel during the first quarter, up 24% from the previous three months.

As per Chevron’s latest estimates, net oil-equivalent production is expected to average 3.8 million to 3.9 million barrels per day, with volumes affected by downtime at Kazakhstan’s Tengizchevroil project and reduced output in parts of the Middle East.

Chevron’s rival, Exxon Mobil, too, is expecting a mixed bag from the Middle East crisis. While earnings in its upstream business could get a lift of about USD 1.4 billion compared with the Q4 2025, driven by higher oil prices, overall earnings could decline as a multi‑billion‑dollar hit ⁠related to financial hedging was expected, due to the Iran war.

Exxon estimates that disruptions to its UAE and Qatar assets will lower its global oil-equivalent production by 6% in the first quarter compared to Q4 2025, but higher commodity prices may provide a profit lift between USD 2.1 billion and USD 2.9 billion compared to the previous quarter. Iran’s missile attacks in Qatar impacted two LNG trains, which represented roughly 3% of Exxon’s 2025 upstream production.

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According to Exxon, the plant is expected to export its first LNG cargo in Q2 2026.

“Today, we began producing LNG at our terminal in Sabine Pass, marking the completion of a significant effort to construct, commission, and start up the first LNG train,” said Alex Savva, president and CEO of Golden Pass.

He further said that once fully operational, Golden Pass will be able to produce 18 million metric tons per annum.

“Golden Pass LNG will strengthen US energy production and reinforce the nation’s role as a reliable supplier to global markets, enhancing energy security and helping meet worldwide demand,” Exxon said.

Discussing Golden Pass LNG, QatarEnergy holds a 70% stake in the project, while Exxon’s stake stands at 30%.

“Train 1, the initial production unit, will add 6 mtpa of new LNG capacity. Based on equity ownership, QatarEnergy ‌will receive just over 4 mtpa while Exxon will receive just under 2 mtpa. This milestone reflects an unwavering commitment to safety and continued progress toward full operations,” Exxon remarked further.

The development also gives a major breather to QatarEnergy, the world’s second‑largest LNG exporter, after being compelled to declare force majeure on its production activities in the Gulf region, citing the Middle East conflict, which also saw Iranian strikes upon its facilities, which account for roughly 20% of the global LNG supply. Damages to those infrastructures could leave the company without about 17% of its current output for up to five years.

The USD 10 billion Golden Pass project itself faced delays and cost overruns since construction began in 2019, including the bankruptcy of its original lead contractor.

The plant’s ability to sustain liquefaction operations and meet its commercial and strategic targets will be under the radar, as supply disruptions from Qatar have resulted in a spike in Asian LNG prices, prompting countries to turn to coal or restrict energy exports to contend with the shortages.

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“In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that’s on the water. It’s about 140 million barrels. So, depending on how you count it, that’s 10 days to two weeks of supply,” the senior official told the country during Fox Business ‌Network’s “Mornings with Maria” programme.

According to Scott Bessent, the addition of sanctioned Iranian oil ‌into global ⁠supplies would help keep oil prices down for ⁠the next 10 to 14 days. Discussing oil prices, it has been above USD 100 per barrel for much of the past two weeks, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and tankers carrying energy consignments getting attacked frequently.

The United States Treasury has already taken a similar step, by allowing the sale of sanctioned Russian oil stranded in tankers, which has reportedly added 130 million barrels to stretched global supplies.

Scott Bessent noted that the Trump administration ‌would take other actions to increase oil supply, including a unilateral release of stocks from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve above the recent coordinated joint G-7 release of 400 million ⁠barrels.

He said the Treasury would “absolutely not try to intervene in oil futures markets, but would take actions to increase physical supplies to try ‌to make up for the 10 million to 14 million barrel-per-day deficit caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

“So, to be clear, we’re not intervening in the financial markets. We are supplying the physical markets,” the Treasury Secretary noted, while stating that China had become an “unreliable” supplier of refined products, as it has stopped exporting jet fuel and other products to other Asian countries.

Confirming the news, a Reuters report claimed that if the Trump administration eases sanctions on Iranian oil, one option would be a waiver similar to one used for Russian oil, allowing sales of crude already stranded at sea and confined to a narrow time frame.

“A potential waiver could accelerate the diversion of oil already destined for China into global markets more broadly, helping ensure adequate supply and blunting Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz,” a source familiar with the US Treasury’s planning told the media outlet.

Meanwhile, Trump lauded Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during a White House meeting on March 19 for “really stepping up to the plate” ⁠on Iran. The Asian giant has joined European nations, in taking steps to stabilise energy markets, apart from ensuring safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

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In fact, according to Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister, if the ongoing conflict forces Gulf energy producers to ⁠shut down exports within weeks, it could drive oil to USD 150 a barrel. In response to the US-Israel joint strikes on its territory, which were launched on February 28, Tehran has stopped the traffic of tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of global daily oil supply. The conflict has also resulted in the disruption of output, as refineries and liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants are facing shutdowns.

“Every day the Strait stays closed, prices will go higher. The belief in the market was that Donald Trump might pull back at some point because he doesn’t want to have high oil prices, but the longer that takes, the clearer it is how much is at risk,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, while interacting with Reuters.

As per a White House official, the Donald Trump administration will likely announce measures to combat rising energy prices from the conflict.

In fact, the Treasury granted waivers on March 5 for companies to buy sanctioned Russian oil stored on tankers to ease supply constraints that have resulted in Asia-based refineries cutting fuel processing. As per the ship-tracking firm Kpler, about ⁠30 million barrels of Russian oil are available and loaded on vessels in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea region and Singapore Strait, including volumes in floating storage.

Meanwhile, spot Middle East crude premiums have spiked to multi-year highs in the first week of March, a trend that also suggests higher costs for regional refiners, with the latter struggling to find immediate alternatives and facing potential output cuts, resulting in the global hike for crude prices.

Along with Brent crude futures and West Texas Intermediate, benchmark Dubai’s cash premium jumped to USD 19.63 per barrel, the reported highest from 2018. Premiums for Oman and Murban crude also soared, hitting USD 19.15 and USD 17.87 per barrel, respectively.

“Dubai spreads have surged as crude exports remain stranded within the Middle East Gulf, making price discovery nearly impossible. We expect Strait of Hormuz disruptions to continue through at least mid-March. There are concerns that Dubai price assessment will be nearly impossible once Oman- and Fujairah-loading Murban shipment volumes are exhausted this cycle,” said Richard Jones, a crude analyst at ⁠Energy Aspects, while interacting with Reuters.

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Zawya Projects reveal that the move is part of an energy investment plan approved by the government with private sector partnership at a cost of around JOD 3 billion (USD 4.2 billion).

The plan includes projects covering gas, electricity, solar and wind power, and storage batteries to be offered to private investors. The largest one in the plan involves investment of JOD 700 million to connect the Risha gas field in the eastern desert to the Arab gas pipeline, the Kingdom TV and other media outlets said, citing a government report.

The report, however, did not mention the purpose of the link, but Jordanian officials said in 2025 that such a project would allow the Gulf country to export gas from Risha, apart from expanding the domestic gas distribution network after the field development is completed.

The 1,200-kilometre Arab gas pipeline originates near Arish in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and was built more than 20 years ago to export Egyptian natural gas to Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, with branch underwater and overland pipelines to and from Israel.

The USD 1.2 billion pipeline has been used intermittently since its inauguration. However, it faced huddles like dramatic reduction in Egyptian gas exports in 2011 due to sabotage, followed by gas shortages in the nation, which forced it to discontinue energy exports by the mid-2010s.

From 2015 to 2018, the pipeline was reversed to flow gas from Jordan to Egypt, powered by imported LNG through Jordan’s Aqaba LNG reception terminal.

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As per the credit ratings agency’s report titled “GCC 2026 Energy Outlook: Capex, Capacity, Consolidation,” the main drivers will be capacity expansion plans in the UAE and Qatar, as well as capacity maintenance in Saudi Arabia. However, this level of spending is unlikely to strain the energy giants’ free operating cash flows substantially, even with lower oil prices and a global economic slowdown.

“In the UAE, state-owned energy group ADNOC is targeting a five-million-barrels-per-day increase in production capacity by 2027, while QatarEnergy is expanding its LNG production capacity in phases through its North Field expansion project. We expect capex to taper toward the second half of the decade as the capacity expansion completion dates approach,” the study noted.

Although NOCs’ capex requirements will remain elevated, S&P believes NOCs will adopt a more cautious stance on spending. This will defy the trend among the international oil companies, which, over the past 12-18 months, have generally announced downward revisions to their capex guidance, mainly to balance cash flow generation with their financial policy commitments.

The report further expects that, on average, over half of the GCC-based NOCs’ capex will remain focused on upstream activities, namely exploration and production.

“Domestic oil typically remains the core focus of capex, but the regional NOCs are also increasing their focus on gas and international operations,” the report observed.

In March 2025, XRG, a wholly owned subsidiary of ADNOC, acquired a 10% stake in Area 4 Mozambique for USD 881 million. Similarly, QatarEnergy is actively seeking and securing interests in Africa and South America. As per the ratings agency, these moves by GCC NOCs are increasingly aligned with their ambitions to expand their LNG and trading businesses on a global basis.

“On the other hand, a more cautious approach by NOCs on spending is likely to reduce rig demand, rationalise average day rates and weigh on the overall profitability of the region’s oil drillers. We think that oil drillers’ rating headroom could shrink as a result, but we do not expect any rating pressure in the short term. In addition, industry consolidation could help balance rig supply and demand and subsequently support day rates,” the report remarked.

“In addition, NOCs are aiming to achieve greater integration along the value chain and are leveraging their trading arms to make the supply of feedstock from upstream to downstream operations more reliable. Aramco’s downstream operations (manufacturing, marketing, refining, and processing) utilise more than 50% of the crude oil it produces (53% as of end-2024),” S&P concluded.

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Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE flared in December 2025 over a decade-long conflict in Yemen, when a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government. The crisis triggered the biggest split in decades between the former close allies. And on January 3rd, the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with Donald Trump announcing Washington’s move to take control of the Latin American country’s oil resources. While Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, bigger even than those of OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, its production has plummeted due to years of mismanagement and sanctions.

“Right now, oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty. And OPEC+ is clearly prioritising stability over action,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official, while interacting with Reuters.

The eight OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman, raised oil output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day in 2025, equal to almost 3% of world oil demand, to regain market share.

“The eight members agreed in November 2025 to pause output hikes for January, February and March 2026 due to relatively low demand in the northern hemisphere winter. Sunday’s (January 4) brief online meeting affirmed that policy and did not discuss Venezuela,” one OPEC+ delegate said.

“The eight countries will next meet on February 1,” the source stated.

While the Saudi-UAE and Venezuela episodes will likely dominate OPEC’s 2026 agenda, at some point in time, the group has in the past managed to overcome many internal rifts, such as the Iran–Iraq War, by prioritising market management over political disputes.

Yet the group is facing other crises, with Russian oil exports falling due to American sanctions over its war in Ukraine, apart from Iran facing protests and possible American intervention. Analysts said it is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years, even if American oil majors do invest billions of dollars in Venezuela in 2026.

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“Today, I approved the largest gas deal in Israel’s history. The deal is worth 112 billion shekels (USD 34.7 billion). Of this total, 58 billion shekels (USD 18 billion) will go to the state coffers. The agreement is with the American company Chevron, with Israeli partners who will supply gas to Egypt,” Benjamin Netanyahu said during a televised address.

Energy Minister Eli Cohen, who was present during the address, said it was the “largest export deal in the state’s history.”

Israeli firm NewMed Energy announced in August 2025 the signing of a USD 35 billion deal to provide Egypt with natural gas, and as per the firm, the deal would increase the total volume of gas supplied to Egypt to 130 billion cubic metres.

In a statement issued late on November 17, NewMed CEO Yossi Abu said it was “a historic day for the natural gas sector, one that guarantees continued investment in Israel and creates regulatory stability for years to come.”

In 2024, Egypt imported a record 981 million cubic feet per day of natural gas from Israel, registering a 18.2% year-over-year increase. Egypt imports up to 20% of its gas from Israel. Over the past couple of years, the nation has witnessed its ambitions to become a regional natural gas supply and LNG export hub go up in flames, with a series of setbacks turning the country from a net exporter of the vital commodity to an importer.

Egypt’s natural gas production has experienced a significant decline in recent years, particularly since its peak in 2021 at around 6.6 bcf/d. Data from early 2025 indicated an eight-year low of below 5 billion cubic feet per day.

Egypt’s existing gas fields, including the massive Zohr one, are facing the phenomenon of natural depletion, and it has become a headache for Cairo as Zohr itself accounts for about 40% of the North African country’s total gas production. Production at Zohr has dropped by about a third since 2019.

Lack of discoveries and investment has also taken a toll, with very few significant new gas fields discovered since Zohr in 2015. Also, insufficient investment in exploration and development, partly due to the government’s arrears owed to foreign oil companies, has hampered efforts to offset the natural decline of existing wells.

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According to Zawya Projects, in October 2025, the energy major accepted an offer from Switzerland-based commodity trader Gunvor Group to buy its international subsidiary.

Lukoil, which has come under Uncle Sam’s hammer as the Donald Trump administration eyes punishing Moscow for its Ukraine invasion, participates in projects in Iraq, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Mexico, the UAE and the Republic of the Congo.

Lukoil holds a 75% stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield, while the rest is controlled by the state-owned South Oil Company. Reacting to the latest development, an Iraqi official told the Aliqtisad news, “Should Lukoil quit the field and production be halted, this will deprive Iraq’s crude oil exports from 450,000-500,000 bpd.”

A well-known Iraqi analyst close to the government said reports that Lukoil has declared force majeure in its operations in south Iraq show that the Western sanctions are working and that such a declaration is a “big geopolitical triumph” for the US-led bloc against Moscow.

“I believe Lukoil’s move will open new opportunities for such Western companies as ExxonMobil, BP and TotalEnergies to bolster their presence in Iraq. The road now appears clear for any arrangement between Iraq and Western companies, which are gradually returning to Iraq…I see a good chance for ExxonMobil in West Qurna 2 given its long experience in the nearby West Qurna 1,” said Nabil Al-Marsouimi, an author of several books on Iraq’s energy sector and economy, while interacting with the Zawya Projects.

In early 2024, ExxonMobil quit West Qurna 1 and handed its operations to PetroChina as the lead contractor as part of a plan to phase out its presence in Iraq for security and contractual reasons, including unattractive project terms offered by Baghdad. The American company is set to return to Iraq after it signed a head of agreement (HOA) with Baghdad in October 2025 for the development of the southern Majnoon oilfield, one of the world’s largest single crude reservoirs.

“Iraq needs to find a new foreign partner in West Qurna 2 because Lukoil’s stake is too large for the government to afford,” said Walid Khaddouri, an Iraqi energy expert and former information chief at the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC).

As per Reuters, ExxonMobil is studying a potential bid for West Qurna 2, while Iraqi sources, quoted by Al-Iqtisad news, said they expected Chinese companies to join the race for that field given their strong presence in the country after they won most of the contracts awarded within Iraq’s oil concession licensing rounds in 2024.

The sources reportedly believed that PetroChina is a strong candidate to take over Lukoil’s operations in West Qurna 2 since it operates the nearby Qurna 1. Iraq, however, has expressed its anger over Lukoil’s decision to declare force majeure in its Qurna operations, describing the move “illegal.”

“The declaration is against the law because it is unilateral…the Iraqi oil ministry has not made a similar declaration, although it is party to the agreement with Lukoil. An Iraqi oil company could handle production at Qurna field in case of Lukoil withdrawal for now…another solution is that the field could be handed over to one of the foreign companies already operating in Iraq,” said Ali Al-Shatri, director general of the state oil marketing organisation (SOMO).

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