February 24, 2017: Several Federal Reserve policymakers said it may raise interest rate ‘fairly soon’ should jobs and inflation data come in line with expectations. This is according to the minutes of the Fed’s meeting released on Wednesday.

“Many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon if incoming information on the labour market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations,” the Fed said in the minutes.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said it would be ‘unwise’ to wait for too long to raise the rates again. This gave a strong indication that the central bank remains on track to consider raising rates again by the summer.

Prices for US stocks fell marginally following the publication of the minutes and yields on US government debt also dropped. Expectations on when the Fed will next raise rates were little changed, with investors predicting a move in May at the earliest, according to fed fund futures data compiled by the CME Group.

Among voting members in general, there was much less urgency to raise rates with many seeing only a ‘modest risk’ that inflation would increase significantly and that the Fed would ‘likely have ample time’ to respond if price pressures emerged.

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The good performance has led to speculation of a further rate hike.

The Federal Reserve had raised interest rates in December. The hike was the second time interest rates were hiked since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

“Waiting too long to begin moving toward the neutral rate could risk a nasty surprise down the road — either too much inflation, financial instability, or both,” Yellen told the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco.

“In that scenario, we could be forced to raise interest rates rapidly, which in turn could push the economy into a new recession.”

Benchmark US Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened after the remarks. Yellen said asset valuations, including stock prices in part, reflect expectations that the Fed will normalise rates faster than other central banks.

JP Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon has predicted that interest rates will rise along with a growing US economy. “I believe America is doing better than people think and therefore interest rates are probably going to be stronger than people think,” Dimon told health investors and executives at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco.

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 IFM Correspondent

December 15, 2016: Citing an improving economy, the US Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate on December 14 for the first time in 2016 by a quarter percentage point. In a statement after a two-day meeting, the Fed said policymakers unanimously agreed to lift the benchmark federal funds rate – the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans — from 0.4% to 0.6%.

The hike is only the second since 2008 despite an unemployment rate that has tumbled from 10% in 2009 to a near-normal 4.6%. “Our decision to raise rates should certainly be understood as reflecting the confidence we have in the progress the economy has made and our judgement that will continue,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said at a news conference.

Yellen also said that Trump’s blueprint of cutting taxes and beefing up defence expenses may have been a factor for some policy makers in their decision to raise rates. But she added the details of the plan and how much of it Congress will pass are unknown. “We’re operating under a cloud of uncertainty at the moment,” she said.

The move reflects the Fed’s growing confidence that the economy is on a sustainable growth footing — and its judgment that inflation is becoming a bigger danger to the US economy than sluggish growth or another recession.

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Ken Taubes

September 26, 2016: As expected, the Federal Reserve Board left interest rates unchanged following the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). In its statement following the meeting, the FOMC said, “The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives.”

The Fed appears to be moving its targets. Chair Janet Yellen cited the need to wait for further improvement in the economy, even though there is evidence that the Fed’s goals have been achieved. She indicated that Committee members will continue to assess economic conditions but made no commitment on the timing of a rate increase. According to Bloomberg, the futures market places a 59% probability on a December hike, but the Fed’s shifting views make that uncertain.

Full employment?

The US unemployment rate is at 4.9%, which meets the Fed’s mission of full employment. While Chair Yellen said the labour market has been improving, she also said there is “room for further improvement.” She said, “The fact that unemployment measures have been holding steady while the number of jobs has grown solidly shows that more people, presumably in response to better employment opportunities and higher wages, have started actively seeking and finding jobs.” She added, “This is a very welcome development, both for the individuals involved, and the nation as a whole.”

But Chair Yellen also said there continues to be slack in the labour force and cited the need for further evidence of improvement in the labour market as one reason for leaving rates unchanged. This raises the question of whether the Fed is giving more importance to the broader measure of unemployment, the U6 rate published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes not only the total unemployed but part-time underemployed workers as well. This rates stands at 9.7%. The market is left guessing how much further the labour market needs to improve before the Fed will raise rates.

Mixed inflation signals

The Fed also cited inflation below its 2% target as another reason for holding rates steady. But it is becoming increasingly clear that inflation indicators are being impacted in part by government policies and factors beyond the Fed’s ability to affect the outcome with monetary policy. One such area is healthcare.

The core personal consumption expenditures index (Core PCE), which is the Fed’s preferred inflation index, and the consumer price index (CPI), use different methods to track healthcare expenses, resulting in sharply different data. CPI tracks what American consumers spend out-of-pocket (including insurance premiums) on healthcare, while PCE takes into account all healthcare spending, including costs paid by insurers, Medicare and Medicaid. Under Obamacare, Medicare and Medicaid have been aggressively pushing down reimbursement rates to healthcare providers while consumers are shouldering higher out-of-pocket costs for healthcare-related expenses.

This government-engineered cost shifting has resulted in significantly different inflation data between PCE and CPI. PCE healthcare inflation was up only 1.1% year-over-year based on the most recent July report, while CPI healthcare jumped 1% in August alone, to 4.9% year-over year. It’s worth noting that healthcare has twice the weighting in PCE vs. CPI, at 19.1% vs. 8.5%, reflecting the fact that healthcare providers pick up most healthcare costs. Monetary policy has little influence over the effect of government-mandated healthcare reimbursement rates built into Obamacare, which are holding down Core PCE inflation, while pushing up CPI inflation.

Investment outlook

Following the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady we expect further gains for risk assets. In fixed income, we expect yields to drift, with little change in the yield curve until there is a shift in the economic data or a change in Fed policy. We continue to believe that developed markets sovereigns, including most US government debt, look unattractive. Investors are being poorly compensated for duration risk as a result of negative nominal yields and negative real yields. Corporate credit is generally more desirable than Treasuries, however even here values are well below historical averages, with an upward bias on leverage. Floating rate securities, including structured securities and event-linked (catastrophe) bonds, may be attractive to hedge interest rate risk without too much yield give-up. With yields so low and a flatter yield curve, shorter duration positions have become less costly.

In equities, we favour large cap stocks over small cap stocks, and see opportunities in mid-cap stocks, many of which are benefitting from secular growth.

Ken Taubes is US Chief Investment Officer at Pioneer Investments

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Seth Roman

September 02, 2016: The intention of the Federal Reserve Board to raise rates is clear, but it is still a question of when. In her annual speech at the Jackson Hole Summit in Wyoming, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the data is moving in the right direction and she is philosophically inclined to increase interest rates. Nevertheless, she also indicated the data does not yet support a rate hike.

The US economy is growing at a gradual pace and the jobs market is strong. However, inflation remains a sticking point. Core PCE (personal consumption expenditure), which is the Fed’s primary gauge of inflation, has been slowly rising, but remains stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% target. The July inflation report released on August 26 confirmed that inflation data remains tame, but in a slowly rising trend. Personal consumption rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in July from a month earlier. Consumer spending climbed 0.5% in June, 0.3% in May, and 1.1% in April.

Market expectations for one or even two rate increases this year moved higher after Yellen’s speech. Within hours after the speech, the probability of a September hike rose to 42% from 24% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in December increased to 63.6% from 51% one week ago.

Yellen’s speech led to another leg up in short-term bond yields, which have been drifting up in recent weeks in anticipation of rising rates. The sharpest moves have been at the short end of the curve.

Two-year Treasury notes rose to 0.82% from 0.74% one week ago. Although this is down from the year-to-date high of 1.05% at the beginning of the year, the current yield is above the average for the year of 0.77%. Five-year T-bills increased to 1.20% from 1.13% one week ago, and 1.03% on August 4.

It’s worth noting that Libor (London Interbank Offer Rate), which is a key rate used by banks to price variable rate loans, has also been rising steadily this year due mostly to technical factors unrelated to Fed jawboning – more specifically, the movement of cash out of prime money market funds in response to money market reform. Libor could continue moving higher spurred in part by the expectation of a Fed rate increase.

The question now is not if, but when the Fed will raise rates. Jackson Hole revealed little new information, but only confirmed that no matter when it begins, the rate hike will be slow and gradual. The market will closely parse future data on growth, jobs and inflation for any likely impact on Fed policy.

Seth Roman is a portfolio manager with Pioneer Investments

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