While spot gold rose 1.1% to USD 4,559.46 per ounce, hitting its highest since March 20, US gold futures for April delivery gained 0.7% to USD 4,588. However, it was still not enough to offset the bullion’s more than 13% decline in March, putting it on track for its steepest ⁠fall since October 2008.

“You could probably describe the recovery we’re seeing in gold as something of a dead cat bounce, which is to say not much of a bounce at all. If indeed (US President) Donald ⁠Trump can exit himself from what could become a very protracted event, then we could see oil and the dollar coming off, which would be gold positive. But we’re ‌not in that position yet,” independent ‌analyst Ross Norman told Reuters.

The dollar, on the other hand, headed for its biggest monthly gain since July 2025, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive. The month-long Middle East war has already sent oil prices surging, raising the risk of global recession, as the global energy trade through the vital Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, with no conflict resolution on the horizon so far.

Discussing gold, the go-to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, it has fallen more than 14% since the war began on February 28, as rising expectations of a hawkish monetary policy outlook weighed on the non-yielding metal.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, money market participants ‌have completely priced out any chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 from about two cuts expected before the conflict.

Goldman Sachs, however, expects gold prices to reach USD 5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, as the financial giant still sees two US interest-rate cuts this year.

Meanwhile, spot silver rose 4.2% to USD 72.90 per ounce, while spot platinum ‌gained 0.9% to USD 1,916.70, and palladium went up 2.8% at USD 1,445.71.

The post Despite gains, gold heads for biggest loss in nearly two decades appeared first on International Finance.

Fitch assesses liquidity using Bloomberg’s Liquidity Assessment (LQA) scores, which indicate security-level liquidity. The ratio can range from one to 100, with 100 signifying the highest liquidity. Generally, a score of 100 is assigned to securities with the lowest liquidation costs within an asset class, while securities with the highest costs get a score of one.

According to Fitch, LQA is a data-driven model that produces a daily security-specific liquidity surface that captures the relationship between volume, cost, and time.

“The LQA decline for investment-grade sukuk has been less severe than for speculative-grade sukuk on average,” the agency stated further.

“While LQA scores have declined in most GCC debt capital markets since the Iran war’s beginning, as well as for sukuk issuers in Turkey, Egypt and Indonesia. On the other hand, many rated Malaysian, Omani, and supranational sukuk have shown resilience in their LQA scores,” Fitch noted.

“Sukuk in the ‘BB’ and ‘B’ categories have the lowest LQA scores among all Fitch-rated sukuk globally on average, with the steepest liquidity fall compared to other rating categories since the war began. Sukuk in the ‘F1sf’, ‘AAA’, ‘BBB’, ‘AA’, and ‘A’ categories held the highest liquidity of all rated sukuk, but also faced declines, except ‘F1sf’,” it stated.

Sector-wise, corporates, infrastructure and project-finance sukuk had the lowest LQA scores among all rated sukuk globally, with the steepest liquidity falls. Asset-backed, supranational and sovereign sukuk, in contrast, maintained the highest liquidity levels, except asset-backed sukuk, whose scores increased.

“Fitch also analysed liquidity for 52 comparable sukuk and bonds from the same issuers. Liquidity was broadly similar in 50% of cases, sukuk were less liquid than bonds in 31%, and more liquid in 19%. GCC US dollar sukuk and GCC US dollar bonds have displayed broadly similar liquidity trends, with both declining since the war began. The average LQA score for GCC US dollar sukuk fell to 45 on 23 March from 56 at the end of 2025. The average score for GCC US dollar bonds dropped to 48 from 53 in the same timeframe,” the ratings agency remarked.

“About 64% of Fitch-rated sukuk had an LQA score above 50 on 23rd March, down from 82% in January 2025 (excluding local ratings and sukuk without an LQA score). Investment-grade sukuk are generally more liquid, with an average score of 65 as of March 23 (January 2026: 73), compared to 33 for speculative-grade sukuk (January 2026: 48). Historically, GCC DCMs have rebounded fairly quickly when tensions eased following previous Middle East geopolitical episodes, but the impact this time will depend on the scale and duration of the war,” it concluded.

The post Fitch sees varying effects on Sukuk, Gulf debt market liquidity appeared first on International Finance.

“Japanese Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama and South Korean Minister of Economy and Finance Koo Yun-cheol expressed serious concern over the sharp depreciation of the Korean won and the Japanese yen. Furthermore, they reaffirmed that they will closely monitor foreign exchange markets and continue to take appropriate actions against excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates,” said a media note after the officials met in Tokyo.

The yen touched its lowest in 20 months on 13th March, nearing the line of 160.00 to the dollar that the market analysts think might prompt Tokyo to intervene to support the currency. ‌The ⁠won, on the other hand, breached a psychological barrier of 1,500 per dollar this month for the first time since March 2009.

The Iran war has also driven ⁠the dollar higher on safe-haven demand, apart from battering the currencies of countries heavily reliant on imported oil.

The currency is also gaining as traders reduce expectations for how much the US Federal Reserve might cut borrowing costs in 2026, as worries over rising inflation have reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts from two before the war to none now.

Tokyo and Seoul shared the view that significant volatility had emerged in financial markets, including foreign exchange, Satsuki Katayama told a press conference after the meeting.

“The Japanese government ⁠is fully prepared to respond at any time, bearing in mind the impact that currency moves may have on people’s livelihoods amid surging oil prices, and I believe both ⁠sides share that understanding,” she added.

Yen, due to its huge trade surplus and enormous net international investment positions, was once used to enjoy unconditional safe-haven status.

However, that position is under threat now, as Joey Chew, head of Asia FX research at HSBC, told Reuters, “The yen can be vulnerable to potential oil supply shocks – it also weakened last year in mid-June amid Israel-Iran tensions.”

The post Japan, South Korea share volatile currency concerns as Yen faces stern test appeared first on International Finance.

“Historically, regional DCM issuances have typically rebounded swiftly once tensions eased following previous geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. However, the ultimate effect will depend on the scope and duration of the Iran war. While some yield widening is visible in GCC bonds and sukuk since the war began, there have not been market-wide selloffs,” the agency stated.

Before the conflict’s beginning, issuance activities in the Middle East were displaying strong investor appetite. While about 84% of Fitch-rated sukuk in the GCC countries were rated investment grade, 63.2% was in the ‘A’ category, while 90% of issuers were on Stable Outlooks. Most importantly, there were no defaults by the end of 2025.

“GCC issuances were strong at the start of 2026, with many entities aiming to benefit from favourable conditions ahead of the typical Ramadan slowdown. GCC debt capital market (DCM) outstanding reached USD1.2 trillion as of March 9, 2026, up 14% year on year, with 63% of issuance denominated in US dollars. Sukuk issuance rose to a record 41% share of GCC DCM volumes, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE making up the majority of GCC DCM outstanding, followed by Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. Sukuk in EMs rose to 16% of all dollar DCM issuance in 2025 (excluding China; 2024: 12%). Local-currency GCC sukuk and bonds continue to be issued, mainly by sovereigns,” Fitch remarked.

While funding needs and diversification priorities remain key focus areas for Gulf countries, governments and issuers are now seeking broader liquidity channels.

Fitch sees issuers planning their funding activities well in advance, particularly for large maturities, which will help limit immediate refinancing pressure.

“Despite heightened geopolitical challenges in recent years, GCC issuer activity has rebounded quickly once tensions eased, with market access broadly maintained for many issuers. However, the duration and scale of the conflict in the Middle East have already surpassed the 2025 Twelve-Day War, testing new levels of market uncertainty,” the agency noted.

MENA (Middle East and North Africa) sukuk continues to trade tighter than bonds originating in the region, reflecting sustained and broader demand, including from Islamic banks, with yield widening more pronounced among non-investment grade issuers. The yield-to-maturity (YTM) on the S&P Global High Yield Sukuk Index rose to 6.61% on 10th March 2026, up from 5.82% on 27th February (a 79bp increase).

“Similar periods of yield widening have occurred, particularly in times of heightened geopolitical or Sharia-related uncertainty. However, the current YTM movement remains below the peak levels recorded in earlier episodes,” Fitch concluded.

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In 2026, the real question is not whether the dollar dominates; it obviously does. The real question is whether governments are preparing for a future where they rely on it, just a bit less. A shift, yes. A revolution? Not really.

According to Bidisha Bhattacharya, economist and columnist at ThePrint, what we are seeing is not some financial revolution. It is much slower than that. Almost cautious.

“De-dollarisation is real, but it is evolutionary rather than revolutionary. The US dollar continues to account for roughly 60% of global foreign exchange reserves, down from over 70% in the early 2000s. That decline reflects diversification at the margins, not displacement at the core,” Bhattacharya told International Finance.

The fundamentals still favour the dollar – deep financial markets, extremely liquid US Treasury bonds, strong institutional trust, and powerful network effects. The more people use the dollar, the harder it becomes to replace.

“Currency hierarchies do not flip suddenly. They evolve, slowly,” she said.

The world is not abandoning the dollar; it is just becoming less dependent on it.

The gold rush — again

If there is one clear signal of this caution, it is gold. Central banks have been buying massive amounts of gold, levels not seen in decades. Annual purchases have exceeded 1,000 tonnes in recent years. This is not about returning to the gold standard or romanticising the past. It is about protection.

“Gold accumulation has become strategically significant. This is less about replacing the dollar, and more about hedging geopolitical and sanctions risk. Gold carries no counterparty risk and functions as a balance-sheet stabiliser in a fragmented global order,” Bhattacharya said.

However, markets play a role too. Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence argues that central bank demand has been pushing prices higher.

“Central banks purchased about 1,000 tonnes annually in 2022, 2023 and 2024, roughly double the previous decade’s average,” McGlone told International Finance, pointing to geopolitical tensions, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as a key driver.

Yet, McGlone suggests, markets may be overheating. Gold could approach major peaks around 2026, similar to historic highs seen in 1980 and 2011. Some reserve diversification, he says, may reflect in rising gold prices rather than a fundamental move away from the dollar.

He added that most of the statistics on gold outpacing dollar reserves are due to the rapid rise in gold prices.

“Demand is notably driven by geopolitics rather than inflation concerns,” he said, suggesting easing global tensions could weaken momentum. So yes, gold is rising. But it is not replacing the dollar.

Sanctions, control, and financial vulnerability

Politics also plays a big role. Maybe more than markets.

Elnara Omarova, who works on BRICS-related policy issues, says many governments are mainly concerned about control, or the lack of it.

“The key issue is access. When central bank reserves can be frozen, or access to dollar clearing becomes politically contingent, governments start reassessing how much exposure they are comfortable carrying. Diversification then becomes less about ideology and more about insurance,” Omarova told International Finance.

This has taken several forms: larger gold reserves, more holdings in non-dollar currencies, and bilateral trade settled in local currencies. And, it has been especially seen in energy markets. But these changes remain limited. The dollar still wins on liquidity, convertibility, and market depth.

“Diversification is happening, but it is incremental,” Omarova said, describing it as risk management in a more fragmented geopolitical environment rather than an abrupt shift away from the dollar. Omarova calls it a recalibration, not a rupture.

The BRICS Debate: More noise than disruption

Much of the public discussion focuses on BRICS, and whether the group could reshape global finance. Analysts urge caution.

The influence of BRICS comes mostly from coordination, encouraging trade in national currencies, experimenting with alternative financing mechanisms, and building regional frameworks. It signals exploration, not replacement.

Lawrence Ngorand of Busara Advisors sees BRICS as pushing the world toward a more multi-polar financial system.

“The BRICS play a catalytic role, accelerating the transition toward a more multi-polar financial architecture,” Ngorand told International Finance.

Their role lies in building alternative infrastructure and gradually shifting expectations. But structural problems remain. There is no widely trusted BRICS reserve currency. Institutional cohesion varies. Therefore, the shift is evolutionary. It is slow, uneven, and incomplete.

Global trade moves beyond the dollar

This may be the toughest question. Commodity markets still revolve around dollar pricing, largely because the liquidity, benchmarks, and risk-management systems behind them are already deeply built around it.

Omarova suggests bilateral trade settlement could diversify, especially among politically aligned countries. But changing global pricing norms would require deep financial markets, credible alternatives, and global participation. That is a very high barrier.

Ngorand agrees that the dollar’s dominance is not just about politics; it is structural power: capital markets, institutional trust, and global network effects.

Regional diversification is happening, particularly in energy trade and infrastructure financing. But full displacement? Unlikely.

“The most likely outcome is not the replacement of the dollar, but the emergence of a more fragmented system where multiple currencies co-exist,” Ngorand said.

When gold stops being a safe haven

Yet the gold story is also becoming more complicated. For years, gold has been treated almost instinctively as the ultimate reserve hedge. No counterparty risk, no dependence on another country’s financial system, and no sanctions exposure. In a fragmented geopolitical world, that logic sounds almost irresistible. But, not everyone is convinced the current gold surge reflects long-term stability.

According to Mike McGlone, gold’s behaviour in markets has started looking less like a traditional store of value and more like a volatile financial asset.

“Gold has shifted toward a speculative asset from a store of value,” McGlone told International Finance, noting that its 180-day volatility has surged to about 2.4 times that of the S&P 500, the highest relative level in two decades. That is not what investors typically expect from a stability anchor.

In fact, McGlone suggests that in many financial stress scenarios, gold might not behave the way policymakers hope. Instead of rising as a stabiliser, it could actually fall when measured in dollar terms.

“In most scenarios, gold declines in USD terms,” he said.

That observation complicates the narrative that central banks are simply replacing dollar reserves with bullion. In reality, gold still trades in a dollar-dominated financial ecosystem. Its pricing, liquidity, and global trading infrastructure remain deeply tied to the very system some countries are trying to hedge against.

So, the question becomes less about whether gold can hedge geopolitical risk and more about whether it can truly function as a substitute for dollar liquidity during a crisis. So far, the answer remains uncertain.

The signalling game of ‘central bank gold’

There is another dimension to the gold story: signalling. Central banks do not build reserves only for their own balance sheets. Sometimes, what they hold also sends a signal outward to markets, to investors, to anyone watching closely.

For emerging economies in particular, the mix of reserves can quietly influence how strong or stable a country looks from the outside.

Some analysts say the recent gold buying could partly be about that, projecting resilience in a world where capital can move very quickly.

Still, McGlone is not entirely convinced that signalling explains everything.

When asked whether emerging economies might be building gold reserves partly to reassure international investors, his answer was simple: it is not entirely clear.

“I don’t know,” he said.

However, what he does emphasise is the geopolitical context that triggered the surge in demand.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent freezing of foreign reserves forced policymakers everywhere to rethink financial vulnerability. The episode highlighted how even large sovereign reserves could suddenly become inaccessible under sanctions. That shock pushed many countries toward alternative assets, including gold.

But geopolitical dynamics are constantly evolving. And in McGlone’s view, the political drivers behind the gold rally may already be fading.

“The geopolitical bid is diminishing,” he said, pointing to shifting political developments in countries often aligned against US influence, including changes in Syria and evolving political pressures in Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba.

If the geopolitical momentum behind gold weakens, the rally could slow as well. Which raises an uncomfortable possibility for central banks: they may have increased their gold exposure precisely when the market was reaching peak enthusiasm.

When reserve diversification goes too far

Gold accumulation has been dramatic. In some ways, it is historically dramatic. But there is also a point where diversification strategies begin to face diminishing returns. For McGlone, that point may already have been reached.

He argues that gold prices have stretched far beyond their historical norms, reaching the largest premium relative to their 60-month moving average ever recorded, and also hitting unprecedented levels relative to the broader Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index.

In other words, markets may have already priced in much of the geopolitical risk. Gold has seen this kind of moment before.

The last time prices became this detached from historical norms was around 1980. That peak held for nearly three decades before being surpassed again during the 2000s commodity boom.

History, McGlone suggests, does not rule out a similar pattern repeating itself. Gold may simply have gone up too much.

“It faces the curse of going up too much,” he said, suggesting the market could be approaching a long-term peak like earlier historical cycles.

If that happens, central banks could find themselves holding larger gold positions at precisely the moment when prices begin stabilising or retreating. This would not invalidate diversification strategies, but it might reduce their immediate financial benefits.

What could push gold even further?

History shows that major geopolitical events can dramatically reshape reserve strategies. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine already triggered one such shift.

That event accelerated discussions about sanctions exposure, financial sovereignty, and alternative reserve assets. But what could push gold even further into the centre of global reserve strategy?

McGlone believes the catalyst would have to be similarly dramatic.

Russia’s invasion created the current surge. Replicating that shock would require a comparable geopolitical rupture. And, for now, he believes the gold momentum may already be reaching its limit.

“The risk is that the bid for gold has reached its apex,” he said.

Inside BRICS: Between unity and rivalry

If gold represents one hedge against the dollar system, BRICS represents another kind of experiment altogether. But even within the BRICS grouping, the financial dynamics are more complicated than they appear from the outside.

According to Lawrence Ngorand, China plays an unmistakably central role in shaping many of the bloc’s financial initiatives.

“China is the central gravitational force within BRICS financial initiatives,” Ngorand told International Finance. That influence stems from simple economics.

China is the largest economy in the group, the biggest trading partner for most other members, and the only one with a fully developed cross-border payments infrastructure capable of supporting large-scale alternative settlement systems.

As a result, efforts to expand local-currency trade often gravitate naturally toward the Chinese renminbi. But that influence comes with political limits.

India, Brazil, and several other BRICS members remain cautious about allowing any single currency to dominate the bloc’s financial architecture. Concerns about dependency and geopolitical balance remain strong, which is why many BRICS initiatives are carefully framed as multi-polar rather than renminbi-centric.

China brings the scale and liquidity, but the set-up of the system still tries to make sure each member keeps the sense that its own financial sovereignty remains intact.

Is a unified ‘BRICS currency’ difficult?

Even setting politics aside, BRICS financial integration runs into a simpler reality. The member economies are very different from each other.

China maintains a tightly managed capital account. India operates with partial controls. Brazil and South Africa run fairly open financial systems compared with some of the others. Russia’s financial system has been reshaped by sanctions and partial isolation. These differences complicate coordination.

Exchange-rate regimes vary. Inflation dynamics differ. Fiscal policy frameworks are not aligned. Even trade structures diverge significantly.

China’s economy is manufacturing-driven. Several other BRICS members depend heavily on commodities. Others rely more on services. These asymmetries make deeper monetary integration extremely difficult.

According to Ngorand, meaningful integration would require convergence across multiple dimensions: inflation targeting frameworks, exchange-rate policy co-ordination, reserve pooling mechanisms, and credible lender-of-last-resort structures. None of those currently exist.

“The bloc lacks the institutional cohesion that underpinned the euro project,” Ngorand said.

Commodity and currency power

Still, one area where BRICS expansion could make a difference is commodities. The inclusion of major commodity exporters within the group has strengthened the theoretical foundation for alternative trade settlement systems.

Countries like Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Russia sit at the centre of global energy and resource flows. And commodities anchor a significant portion of global trade. If even a small share of these transactions began shifting toward non-dollar settlement, new liquidity corridors could gradually emerge. That possibility matters.

“If even a modest share of oil or critical mineral trade shifts to local currencies, it creates liquidity pools and hedging demand outside the dollar system,” Ngorand said.

However, commodity power alone does not automatically translate into monetary dominance. Even if some commodities start trading in other currencies, the money does not always stay there. In many cases, it quietly circles back to dollar assets anyway.

Take oil revenues. No matter what currency the trade begins with, a large share often ends up parked in United States Treasuries. So, commodities might open alternative payment routes, but that alone does not really dismantle the dollar system. For that, a deeper financial infrastructure would be required.

The shock that could change everything

Ultimately, the speed of any monetary transition depends on shocks. Gradual diversification can go on for years, even decades, without shaking the foundations of global finance. Systems like this rarely change overnight. But, history shows that faster shifts usually come after disruption.

Ngorand suggests that a real acceleration in de-dollarisation would likely require confidence to crack across several pillars of the current financial system at the same time. That could include large-scale sanctions affecting multiple mid-sized economies, a major disruption to global payment networks, such as SWIFT, or a severe dollar liquidity crisis.

Another possibility would be sustained fiscal instability in the United States that undermines confidence in Treasury markets, the backbone of global reserve management. In the absence of such shocks, inertia favours continuity.

“Reserve currency transitions historically occur over decades, not years,” Ngorand said. Which means the dollar system may evolve, diversify, and fragment at the edges without collapsing at the centre, at least for now.

Not the end, just an adjustment

What emerges from all this is not a collapse. It is an adjustment. Central banks are hedging. Governments are managing risk. The world feels more uncertain, thanks to geopolitical, economic, financial, and reserve strategies that reflect that anxiety. The system is becoming more hedged, more political, and slightly more multipolar.

Bhattacharya summed it up thus: “We are not witnessing the end of dollar dominance, but rather the end of unquestioned dollar comfort.”

The dollar remains at the centre. Just no longer alone in commanding unquestioned trust.

The post Sanctions or war, the dollar always wins appeared first on International Finance.

Approximately 30,000 people have died in the fighting, and, when accounting for starvation and disease, the total number of casualties exceeds 400,000. After Omar al-Bashir was overthrown in a coup in 2019 by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), some believed this could mark a new beginning for the nation. However, the formerly allied factions went back on their promises and began battling for power instead of working to restore civilian rule. This situation serves as a stark reminder of what can happen when political discourse breaks down, and a nation becomes fractured due to political and economic greed.

What the numbers really show

The IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook places Sudan’s consumer price inflation at 100% for 2025 on average, a projection that reflects the scale and persistence of price pressures.

Complementing that, the IMF country page for Sudan shows consumer prices rising at triple digits, with real GDP projected to contract slightly in 2025, highlighting a stagflationary environment, which is a rare combination of high inflation, slow economic growth, and elevated unemployment, a squeeze that is both deep and sustained.

World Bank monitoring confirms continued macro fragility, with the May 2025 “Sudan Economic Update” describing entrenched supply constraints, administrative dislocation, and conflict-driven disruptions that keep inflation elevated and unstable.

A World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook note for Sudan indicates inflation decelerated to 78.4% year over year by July 2025, which is a notable moderation that still leaves households struggling as broad money growth, foreign exchange scarcity, and a persistent parallel premium feed through to prices.

When factories are looted, the farms burned, the roads severed, and banks shuttered or relocated under duress, price signals stop disciplining markets and start reflecting scarcity, fear, and speculation.

What fuels inflation?

How can anyone stabilise prices when the country is being torn apart by a civil war that began in April 2023 and has displaced millions, severed supply chains, and turned food, fuel, and cash into instruments of leverage?

United Nations updates since early 2025 have called Sudan the most devastating humanitarian and displacement crisis in the world.

The World Bank’s Sudan overview makes the connection explicit, describing how conflict has produced wide-ranging economic and social damage that constrains production, distorts logistics, and crushes livelihoods, which elevate price pressures and entrench volatility.

Moreover, standard economic analysis often misses the “shadow economy” of resource theft. In Sudan, this is not a small detail. It is the primary engine of the conflict. Official reports state that Sudan produced 64 tonnes of gold in 2024. This record amount should have injected billions into the banking system. It did not.

The reason is simple. Data indicates that between 50% and 80% of this gold is smuggled out of the country. Economic analysts estimate this results in a loss of up to $7 billion in annual revenue. This massive sum bypasses the government entirely. Instead of backing the currency, the wealth flows directly to armed factions like the RSF, who control key mines in Darfur.

Investigations reveal that over 90% of this gold eventually lands in the United Arab Emirates. The proceeds then return to Sudan in the form of weapons rather than food or medicine. This creates a self-sustaining “Gold-for-Guns” loop. The inflation crisis will never end while the nation’s most valuable asset is used to purchase the very bullets destroying it.

Currency collapse and the price spiral

Currencies are stories about credibility, and Sudan’s story has been a slow-motion implosion that turned precipitous as the war intensified.

Radio Dabanga reported that the US dollar surpassed 2,100 Sudanese pounds on the parallel market by July 2024. This violent depreciation quickly translated to increased prices for imported goods and basic necessities linked to import cost structures.

Further reporting captured the widening spread between official and parallel rates, with banks quoting markedly below street prices as the market premium crystallised into a daily tax on transacting outside privileged channels.

The World Bank’s 2025 update documents an official rate around 2,019 pounds per US dollar by March against a parallel rate near 2,679, quantifying an approximate 21% premium that distorts price discovery, encourages hoarding, and penalises the poorest who cannot arbitrage.

By June 2025, Xinhua described a further slide with the dollar trading at 2,760 on the parallel market and the official rate at 2,100, which is an exchange rate anatomy that maps directly onto continued price instability.

None of this is abstract because every currency gap creates space for speculation, counterfeiting, and rent extraction that show up as empty wallets and thinner meals for ordinary households.

Sudan executed a dramatic exchange rate adjustment in February 2021, moving the official rate from 55 to 375 pounds per dollar as part of a push to unify rates and restore competitiveness, a necessary step that proved insufficient in the face of political upheaval and then all-out conflict.

Any talk of new exchange rate reforms without parallel moves on security, revenue, and banking resilience will founder on the same rocks because credibility is earned through results that people can see on shelves and in markets.

That is why the IMF’s WEO snapshots matter less as forecasts to memorise and more as calls to restore the basic preconditions for price stability, starting with security, access, and institutional capacity.

Human cost of inflation

The numbers tell a story of collapse, but behind them are people, millions of them. According to UN assessments in 2025, tens of millions of Sudanese now depend on aid just to survive. Entire families are on the move, fleeing violence and hunger, while basic services such as water, health, and electricity fall around them.

The World Bank says poverty is surging and the economy has shrunk again, year after year. Latest data suggests that 26 million (around half the population) are starving, and the nation has more people living in famine than the rest of the world combined. There is also a 40% drop in income, and food inflation has tripled. People have no money for food, medicine, or fuel.

Even if inflation slows a little by mid-2025, it is still devastating. Prices are still high. And because food, housing, and transport make up most of what people spend on, it is the poorest who bear the most.

Humanitarian groups like ACAPS have been sounding the alarm for months. Food prices are spiking far above their multi-year averages. For example, the price of grains like Sorghum and millets in 2024 is 500% higher, which is six times, than in 2023. And it seems to be getting worse.

Markets are fractured. Imports are stuck. Traders are being taxed by armed groups at every checkpoint. Sudanese traders are being taxed or asked for protection money by both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), as well as civil authorities and local militia. The cost of transit for goods itself is appalling. For a single truck to make a return trip in South Sudan, the cost of taxes and bribes to all competing parties is about a whopping $3,000. There are reports that supply trucks pass through almost 100 checkpoints controlled by rival factions on a one-way trip.

It is a human catastrophe that shows, in real time, what happens when war, misrule, and neglect destroy not only a country’s currency but its capacity to care for its people. The displacement map is also a price map because each wave of movement shifts demand toward fragile urban centres and import-dependent corridors where logistics premiums are already elevated.

Almost 13 million people have been displaced, and 8–10 million are internally displaced. It means that they have fled their homes but are still in Sudan. The rest have fled to Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. In that environment, the line between profiteering and survival blurs, and public authority’s absence invites every private tax imaginable, each one manifested in the final price paid in cash or in kind.

Inflation erodes purchasing power, social cohesion, trust in institutions, and the perceived fairness of the economic game, which, in turn, depresses participation and investment.

A broken banking system

If conflict is the match, policy failure is the kindling, and fiscal dominance is the wind that keeps the blaze alive.

Sudan’s central bank has not operated with full independence in years, subordinated to urgent fiscal needs that have encouraged money creation and administrative controls rather than credible anchors and transparent rule-making.

The World Bank’s country work points to disrupted cash replacement, mobile money curbs, and administrative interventions that respond to immediate pressures but often add frictions that widen parallel gaps and degrade confidence.

Banking infrastructure has been looted, relocated, or shuttered across key corridors, with more than half the system at times effectively disabled, which means intermediation is impaired and the transmission of policy signals is weak to non-existent.

When broad money grows 29% in six months, as the World Bank notes for early 2025, in a context of supply destruction and FX scarcity, the predictable result is persistent inflation, even if the monthly path wobbles with seasonal harvests and sporadic aid.

There is an irony here that should not be lost on anyone. The more the state leans on the banking system to absorb shocks it cannot price, the more fragile and politicised that system becomes, and the less able it is to perform the basic tasks of payments, savings, and credit without distortion.

There is no visible horizon for the conflict, and the Sudanese people are experiencing one of the worst economic crises of our times, comparable to the people of Palestine, Yemen, and Ukraine.

Humanitarian access must expand quickly as an inflation management tool that floods famine-threatened regions with food and health services, breaks speculative hoarding, and normalises logistics so that price expectations can reset.

Diplomatic leverage must prioritise a ceasefire that enables corridors and markets to function safely because every day of war deepens scarcity and every week of scarcity hardens inflation expectations.

The post Sudan’s war on survival appeared first on International Finance.

This price shows a small drop of 0.03% from the day before, but it confirms a massive yearly gain that has broken gold’s usual trading patterns. The speed of this rise is clear when noting that prices are up 54.66% compared to the same time in 2024. The market reached its highest point in history in October 2025, when gold hit $4,381.58.

In a normal cycle, rising stock markets and stable economic growth would usually reduce demand for assets like gold that do not pay interest. However, 2025 has seen this relationship break down completely. Gold has delivered returns exceeding 60%, which is far better than the Nifty 50’s return of just 5.7% and significantly higher than the S&P 500.

The metal closed at $4,002.77 in October 2025 before rising to $4,217.36 in November 2025. This continued buying, even at high prices, suggests that the market is driven by deep institutional accumulation rather than just speculation.

The volatility seen this year rivals the most chaotic times in economic history. The rally has surpassed the gains seen during the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the liquidity injections following the 2008 financial crisis. For example, gold prices rose about 27% in 2024, which set the stage for the explosive 54% move in 2025. This compounding effect means gold has nearly doubled in value over just twenty-four months.

Early rallies in 2023 and 2024 were sparked by fears of a US banking crisis and the start of the Ukraine conflict, but the 2025 surge is driven by a deeper realisation that the global financial system is fracturing. The World Gold Council notes that the metal has set over 50 all-time highs in 2025 alone. This constant setting of new records shows the market is struggling to find a stable price for safety, especially as the supply of “safe” government bonds grows while trust in global politics falls.

Gold’s performance is also strong when measured against global currencies, while the rally is most visible in US dollars. In India, gold prices rose 27.9% in 2020 and 10.7% in 2022 before speeding up in 2023 and 2024. This strength across different currencies supports the argument that gold is gaining value, and it’s not just that the dollar is weakening.

The “fear trade” has grown because central banks seem trapped by their government’s debt. The US Federal Reserve, which ended its programme of reducing the money supply on December 1, has effectively admitted it cannot keep interest rates high without risking a debt crisis. This shift toward providing more money, even though inflation remained stuck at 3% as of September 2025, has been seen by the market as a signal to buy hard assets.

Long-term data highlights how big this shift really is. From 2000 to 2025, gold prices are up 1,075%, giving an average annual return of 10.9%. This performance rivals and often beats major stock market indices without the risk of relying on a company or government. The structural shift is also seen in how gold compares to other metals. While silver has risen 91.05% over the past year (trading at $60.98 per ounce) and copper is up 25.38%, gold remains the clear leader of the precious metals market.

Geopolitical doom loop

The extra value built into the gold price in 2025 is largely due to the worsening geopolitical landscape. The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical risk added about 16 percentage points to gold’s performance in 2025. This situation, called the “doom loop” by analysts, implies that investors are buying gold to protect against inflation and as insurance against a breakdown in global relations and the weaponisation of finance.

The biggest geopolitical trigger happened in June when tensions between Israel and Iran turned into a direct conflict. Following a series of attacks that threatened to involve the whole Middle East, gold prices spiked quickly, surging toward $3,500 per ounce immediately. This event showed how fragile global energy supply chains are and how regional conflicts can spread financial panic.

The quick reaction of the gold market, which rose nearly 1% in a single day during the crisis, showed how sensitive the metal is to news from the Persian Gulf. Furthermore, the actions of Iranian citizens, who rushed to buy portable wealth like gold coins and bars, showed how useful gold is when people lose trust in their currency and government. The price of a gold coin in Iran went over 1.2 billion rials for the first time.

The war in Ukraine became more dangerous in late 2025 with the arrival of North Korean troops, causing European and Asian investors to seek safety. This happened when gold reached its all-time high of nearly $4,382 as markets priced in the risk of a direct fight between NATO and North Korea or new sanctions that could hurt global trade. The “fear trade” was also fuelled by reports of Russia selling its gold reserves to pay for its war, which proved that gold is essential for settling debts when a country is cut off from the Western financial system.

In Asia, the risk premium in gold has been kept high by the aggressive actions of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) near Taiwan. After Taiwan’s new president took office in May 2024, China held large military drills called Joint Sword-2024A, which put blockades on the island. These tensions continued through 2025, with gold prices reacting to airspace violations and naval movements.

The chance of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, which is a key route for global computer chip supplies, has driven strong demand for safety within China itself. Chinese retail investors, who are facing a failing property market and weak stocks, have moved aggressively into gold ETFs and physical bars to protect themselves against instability. This anxiety at home is matched by the Chinese central bank’s buying strategy, which many analysts see as preparation for being cut off financially if they force a reunification.

This global fragmentation has caused a major change in how official institutions behave. Central banks, especially in emerging markets, are buying gold reserves strategically. The World Gold Council reports that central bank buying hit a record 483 tonnes in just the first half of 2024.

A survey showed that 95% of central banks expect their gold reserves to keep rising, with 73% expecting the US dollar to become less important in global reserves over the next five years. The National Bank of Poland was a top buyer in 2024, while the Reserve Bank of India added nearly 600 kilogrammes between April and September 2025.

This shows a structural move away from the US dollar, driven by fears that the financial system could be used as a weapon and worries about American debt. The move away from the dollar is no longer just a theory. It is happening right now in the gold market.

Not enough gold to go around

While demand has been the main story, the supply of gold has been unusually stuck despite record prices. Usually, a 50% jump in price would cause a big increase in supply, mostly from more mining and people selling old gold. However, 2025 has broken this rule, creating a shortage of physical metal that has pushed prices even higher.

Global mine production has levelled off, with estimates for 2025 showing only a 1% increase to about 3,660 tonnes. This stagnation is due to a decade of low investment in finding new gold after the price drop in 2013-2015. Major mining companies are struggling to find new gold as fast as they mine it, and it takes 10 to 15 years to start a new mine. This means the current high prices will not lead to new mine supply until the 2030s.

Also, political nationalism and operational problems have made it harder for miners in key areas like West Africa and Latin America, limiting output even more. In Mali, Barrick Gold Corp had to pause operations at its Loulo-Gounkoto complex because of shipping restrictions, which shows how fragile the supply chains are.

The recycling market has also been weaker than expected. In the third quarter, recycled gold supply rose by only 6% to 344 tonnes, even though prices were 40% higher than the year before. In the past, high prices would tempt people to sell their jewellery for cash, but now the expectation that prices will go even higher, fuelled by fears of currency collapse, has encouraged people to hoard their gold. This is very clear in India, where jewellery owners are using their gold as collateral for loans instead of selling it. About 200 tonnes of gold were pledged for loans in 2025.

The shortage is not just in gold. The silver market, which often moves with gold, is expected to have a supply deficit for the fifth year in a row in 2025, estimated at 125 million ounces. This ongoing shortage in precious metals reinforces the feeling of scarcity.

The lack of available physical gold has been made worse by central banks buying so much that they have effectively removed 30% to 33% of all newly mined gold from the market. Since central banks usually hold gold for a long time, a huge chunk of available gold is basically locked away.

Demand for jewellery, which is traditionally the biggest part of the gold market, has fallen in terms of weight because of the high price. In the third quarter, global jewellery consumption dropped by 19% to 371 tonnes, which was the sixth quarterly drop in a row.

However, the value of this demand actually went up by 13% to 41 billion US dollars, showing that while people are buying less gold by weight, they are spending more money on it. This difference is most obvious in price-sensitive markets like India and China, where high prices have reduced the amount bought but not the desire for the metal.

A new source of demand has come from the technology sector, specifically for artificial intelligence (AI) hardware. Gold demand in electronics rose to about 326 tonnes in 2024 (a 7% increase) and has grown faster in 2025.

Gold is essential for high-performance computer chips and AI processors because it conducts electricity well and does not corrode. As the world builds more data centres and AI systems, industrial use of gold is becoming a significant factor in demand. This demand does not change much with price, because the cost of gold in a $30,000 AI server is very small compared to the total cost, meaning tech companies will keep buying gold regardless of the price.

Monetary shift fuels gold

The third major reason for the gold rally is the clear change in monetary policy. As of December 2025, the market strongly expects a rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 10, giving a 90% chance of a 0.25% reduction.

This expectation has caused real yields to collapse. The link between gold and real interest rates has returned strongly in late 2025. As interest rates fall and inflation expectations stay above 3%, real returns on cash have dropped.

This environment has caused Western investors to start buying again, mostly through ETFs. After selling in 2023 and early 2024, global gold ETFs have seen money flow in for six straight months as of November 2025.

In November alone, global gold ETFs added $5.2 billion, bringing total holdings to a record 3,932 tonnes. This marks a key change in psychology among institutional investors who had left gold for high-yielding bonds. Realising that interest rates have peaked and are falling has forced fund managers to buy gold to catch the price rise.

While North American funds are buying again, the biggest growth has come from Asia. Asian funds made up over 60% of global inflows, with Chinese ETFs alone adding $2.2 billion. This “Great Eastern Rotation” is driven by local issues. In China, the weak real estate market and poor stock performance have left investors with few safe options.

The aggressive gold buying by the Chinese central bank has also signalled to regular people that gold is the best asset to own right now. Also, the falling value of the yuan against the dollar has made gold, which is priced in dollars, a good hedge against currency weakness.

The relationship between the Federal Reserve and global liquidity is crucial. The Fed’s decision to stop reducing its balance sheet officially ended the period of tightening the money supply. Putting more money into the financial system is historically good for hard assets.

Analysts at Sprott note that stress in the repo markets forced the Fed to change course. If the Fed has to cut rates aggressively in 2026 to stop a recession (the “hard landing” scenario), real interest rates could turn negative, potentially pushing gold toward the $5,000 targets seen by some experts.

Beyond traditional ETFs, gold is now being integrated into the digital financial system. Major banks are using blockchain to create digital versions of physical gold. HSBC reported that trading volume for its “HSBC Gold Token” went over $1 billion in 2025, with over 100,000 transactions. JP Morgan’s Kinexys platform is also active, allowing clients to use tokenised gold as collateral.

The integration of gold into banking rules, specifically as a Tier 1 asset under “Basel III,” has changed demand. As of July 1, 2025, Basel III rules allow banks to count allocated gold as a high-quality liquid asset at 100% value. This change encourages banks to hold physical gold instead of paper contracts, tightening the physical market further.

Future trajectories

Major financial institutions disagree, with price targets ranging from a bearish $3,000 to a very bullish $5,300 per ounce. This wide range shows a market at a turning point, where gold’s path depends on US government spending, geopolitical conflicts, and how much central banks keep buying.

Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are the most bullish, predicting prices to reach $5,000 and $4,900, respectively, by 2026. Their view is based on the “Doom Loop” scenario described by the World Gold Council. In this scenario, a global downturn caused by trade wars and conflict forces central banks to cut rates to zero or print more money.

Under these conditions, the US dollar would likely weaken, and government debt levels would spiral, hurting trust in government bonds. Goldman Sachs specifically points to central bank buying, predicting they will keep buying 80 tonnes per month through 2026.

This constant demand creates a “price floor” that keeps rising. Also, the risk of new tariffs and trade wars under a Trump presidency, mentioned in several reports, could increase inflation while hurting growth, creating a perfect storm for gold.

On the other hand, Citi Research has a bearish view, warning that gold could drop to $3,000 or lower in 2026. This scenario relies on the “Reflation Return.” If pro-growth policies in the United States, like deregulation and tax cuts, succeed in boosting the economy without causing high inflation, and if geopolitical tensions calm down, the need for gold as a safety net could disappear.

Citi argues that as the US economy improves, money will move out of defensive assets like gold and into industrial metals and stocks. They give a 20% chance to a scenario where gold falls back to $3,000 as fears ease. This view also assumes the Fed will not cut rates as much as the market expects, keeping the cost of holding gold high.

Gold has been restored as a primary reserve asset for a world with multiple powers. The “weaponisation” of the US dollar through sanctions has forced emerging market central banks to find a neutral place to store value.

As noted by the World Gold Council (WGC), 73% of central banks expect the US dollar’s share of global reserves to fall over the next five years. This long-term trend provides support for gold that does not depend on daily economic data.

The gold rally of 2025 represents more than just a quick price surge. It signifies a significant shift in how investors, institutions, and governments perceive risk, money, and trust in the financial system. Gold did not increase in value due to a single crisis or momentary panic. Instead, its rise was driven by several long-standing pressures converging simultaneously, including rising debt, declining confidence in politics, limited supply, and a noticeable change in global monetary policy.

What makes this rally different from past episodes is its breadth. Demand has come from central banks, large funds, retail investors, and even the technology sector. At the same time, supply has failed to respond in the way markets would normally expect. This imbalance has created a situation where high prices are not slowing demand but instead reinforcing the belief that gold is necessary protection.

The role of central banks is especially important. Their steady buying shows that gold is no longer treated as a legacy asset, but as a strategic reserve for a divided world. The move away from reliance on the US dollar is gradual, but it is real, and gold sits at the centre of that shift. Monetary policy has added fuel to this trend, as falling real interest rates reduce the appeal of cash and bonds.

Looking ahead, price forecasts vary widely, which itself shows how uncertain the global outlook has become. Whether gold moves higher or corrects, the events of 2025 have already changed its role. Gold has reasserted itself as a core asset in a world where financial stability can no longer be taken for granted. But only time can tell the true trajectory of the historic gold rally.

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Under the GENIUS Act’s framework, stablecoin issuers must play by strict rules designed to safeguard users and the broader financial system.

Only regulated institutions can issue US dollar stablecoins. This means insured depository institutions (banks, credit unions, and their subsidiaries) or other non-bank firms that secure Federal Reserve approval and demonstrate compliance capabilities. In other words, no fly-by-night startups, because issuers must have serious oversight.

Every stablecoin must be backed 1:1 by high-quality liquid assets. Issuers are required to hold an equivalent dollar in reserve (cash, US Treasury bills, repurchase agreements, or other low-risk assets) for each token in circulation. They must also report their reserve holdings and undergo regular audits by accredited accounting firms, ensuring the promised peg isn’t a mere mirage.

All stablecoin issuers fall under “Bank Secrecy Act” obligations, meaning robust anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) programmes are mandatory. This brings stablecoins in line with traditional financial norms, aiming to prevent illicit use and bolster consumer protection.

Opening Door To A Digital Dollar Economy

The GENIUS Act’s passage marks a new era for stablecoins and the broader crypto sector. For the first time, there are clear federal guidelines acknowledging these digital dollars as legitimate financial instruments.

Stablecoins, which maintain a constant value (typically 1:1 with the dollar), have already exploded in use in recent years, primarily as grease in the wheels of crypto trading. Traders use them to hop in and out of volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. Now, with official rules in place, stablecoins are poised to move from trading desks to everyday wallets.

Experts say this law “could pave the way for [stablecoins] to become an everyday way to make payments and move money” in the real economy. The allure is clear because transactions in stablecoins settle in seconds, 24/7, instead of days.

Sending money via traditional bank networks can take several business days, and even longer for international wires, but a stablecoin payment can zip across the world almost instantly, at any hour.

Fees can be pennies, not the hefty charges typical of cross-border bank transfers. For consumers and businesses, that means faster e-commerce checkouts, cheaper remittances to family overseas, and the ability to transfer funds without banking delays.

No wonder a slate of companies is now exploring how stablecoins might fit into their strategies. Imagine checking out online and opting to pay with a Walmart or Amazon stablecoin, an idea those retail giants have reportedly considered in recent months. Such a token could give customers a seamless digital payment method and potentially power loyalty rewards or other perks.

Walmart and Amazon, among others, see the promise of instant, low-cost payments to improve user experience, though neither has publicly detailed plans yet. On the corporate side, stablecoins could also revolutionise business treasury operations. A multinational could use stablecoins internally to shuffle funds between international subsidiaries in real time, avoiding slow correspondent banking networks. In sum, stablecoins offer the internet’s speed in finance, and the GENIUS Act provides the green light for companies to harness that.

A banner for Bullish, a crypto exchange operator, was displayed on the New York Stock Exchange floor during its IPO in August 2025. Bullish’s public debut amid new US crypto regulations highlights growing mainstream confidence in the sector.

The optimism extends to the broader crypto market as well. Bullish, a cryptocurrency exchange backed by investor Peter Thiel, made headlines by doubling in value in its NYSE debut this August, reaching a staggering USD 13.2 billion valuation. Its stock launch, one of the first major US listings of a crypto exchange, underscored rising investor confidence in the sector’s future under clearer regulations.

In fact, Bullish announced its plans to convert a significant chunk of its IPO proceeds into stablecoins, signalling just how bullish (no pun intended) it is on this segment of crypto. The company noted that stablecoin usage has boomed since the GENIUS Act was signed, thanks to the new regulatory regime for these dollar-pegged tokens.

To market watchers, moves like this suggest that Washington’s crypto-friendly shift, described by Reuters as “a string of regulatory wins under a pro-crypto White House,” is encouraging mainstream adoption and investment.

Even beyond Bullish, several US financial institutions (from exchange Gemini to asset manager Grayscale) are eyeing public listings, emboldened by the sense that the crypto industry is stepping out of legal limbo and into the regulated mainstream.

Perhaps the strongest sign of stablecoins’ coming of age is the lineup of heavyweight companies now preparing to launch their own dollar-backed coins. Reuters reported that “financial companies from Bank of America to Fiserv are preparing to launch their own dollar-backed crypto tokens” in the wake of the GENIUS Act.

This range spans traditional Wall Street titans (like Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank) to fintech service providers (Fiserv, a Fortune 500 payments and tech company), which shows that interest in stablecoins is broad-based across financial services.

Tricky Considerations

The GENIUS Act may open new doors for stablecoins, but experts warn that implementation involves “numerous tricky considerations” spanning strategy, compliance, and technology. Firms must first clarify purpose, which means deciding whether to issue customer-facing coins for loyalty and payments or internal tokens for cross-border settlements, since intended use shapes every decision.

Then comes the build-versus-partner dilemma, because launching an in-house stablecoin offers control and branding but requires massive technical, regulatory, and governance investment, while partnering with issuers like Circle provides speed and credibility. Compliance is another major hurdle, with non-bank firms needing to adopt bank-level KYC, AML, and reporting systems, while banks face capital treatment questions that could affect profitability.

Technology choices add complexity, as public blockchains like Ethereum offer scale and accessibility but less control, while private ledgers ensure governance but may lack resilience and interoperability.

In addition, regulatory uncertainty remains, as agencies like the OCC and Treasury must still draft detailed rules, meaning stablecoin adoption will phase in gradually. Companies face a long list of strategic, technical, and financial hurdles before the GENIUS Act’s promise can be fully realised.

The post The GENIUS Act: All you need to know about America’s first ‘Stablecoin Law’ appeared first on International Finance.

Almost 40% of the debt was raised through sukuk, Bashar Al Natoor told the media, predicting the market is poised for growth in 2025. The key drivers include financing government projects, maturing debt, fiscal deficits, diversification goals, and regulatory reforms.

Fitch rates around 70% of GCC US dollar sukuk, 81% of which is investment-grade and with no defaults.

As per Bashar Al Natoor, the GCC is expected to remain among the largest emerging-market dollar debt issuers in 2025 and 2026, excluding China, and the largest sukuk issuers and investors globally.

“Oil revenues are among the main drivers of debt capital market activity. However, sovereign issuances will likely rise as oil prices fall to USD 70-65 per barrel in 2025 and 2026,” the official continued.

Fitch further expects the United States Federal Reserve to cut rates by 125 basis points to 3.5% by Q4 2025, with most GCC central banks likely to follow suit.

“This should make the funding environment more favourable,” Bashar Al Natoor said.

“However, the evolution of the Middle East conflict is uncertain and escalation could limit debt capital market growth. In addition, Sharia complexities, including those linked to AAOIFI Standard 62, could be a risk for sukuk. The debt capital market remains fragmented across the GCC. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the most developed debt markets, followed by Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman,” he added.

“While Kuwait is the least mature, the new government aims to update the liquidity law to permit borrowing in capital markets, but the timeline is uncertain,” Al Natoor noted, while concluding, “the introduction of GCC fund passporting regulations could further enhance regional debt market investment opportunities.”

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The prospect of an African currency has long been dismissed as a pipe dream. Yet, Donald Trump’s alleged stance could act as a catalyst, reviving conversations about the continent’s economic independence and unity. Historically, Africa has struggled with external influences shaping its destiny. This moment presents a chance to turn the tables.

Donald Trump’s rhetoric is no stranger to controversy. His “America First” philosophy, encapsulated in the slogan “Make America Great Again,” thrives on disruption and negotiation. Critics suggest that this latest move may be a calculated ploy, positioning the United States as the indispensable player in global trade while subtly nudging BRICS nations into negotiations favourable to American interests.

But Africa stands at a crossroads. With its abundant rare earth metals crucial to global energy transitions, the continent holds a strategic advantage. The African Union (AU) could seize this moment to establish a single African currency, bolstering intra-continental trade and reducing reliance on external powers.

Such a move would not be without challenges. BRICS nations, particularly China, have faced growing scrutiny for their handling of African debt. Donald Trump’s warnings could exacerbate concerns, steering African nations toward the dollar or prompting them to chart an independent course. In either scenario, the continent’s leaders must act decisively.

An African central bank and a unified currency could eliminate non-tariff barriers that currently stifle trade. A continental standards body could ensure product quality, paving the way for an e-mobility revolution led by African innovation. Citizens could travel across the continent freely, breaking down the artificial barriers that divide its airspace and economies.

The stakes are high. If the AU adopts this bold vision, it could redefine Africa’s economic future, making the continent a formidable force in global affairs. The decision, however, must be swift and strategic. As Donald Trump’s presidency looms, Africa has a unique opportunity to awaken as a unified, self-reliant power—or risk being pulled back into complacency.

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