On his first day in office (January 20, 2025), President Trump declared an energy emergency, stating, “The integrity and expansion of our Nation’s energy infrastructure is an immediate and pressing priority for the protection of the United States’ national and economic security.”

In January 2025, Trump also signed several executive orders, including one on energy that includes a wide range of provisions aiming to “unleash America’s affordable and reliable energy and natural resources,” thereby ending the Joe Biden administration’s pause on the approval of new LNG exports.

It also commenced processes to ease regulations on oil and gas production. Trump also signed an order to lift restrictions on oil, gas, and mineral production in Alaska and announced plans to establish an inter-agency working group to determine and implement measures to expedite oil and gas development.

Unleashing American energy

The executive order focuses on the “national interest to unleash” America’s affordable and reliable energy and natural resources,” which will in turn, rebuild America’s economic and military security.

The Trump administration has “clear policy goals” for the United States to meet the energy needs of Americans, by exploring federal lands and water, including the Outer Continental Shelf, for energy exploration and production to solidify the United States as a global energy leader. The government will also use the energy sector reforms as a means to create jobs, apart from ensuring prosperity and strengthening supply chains in the United States by establishing the world’s largest economy as the leading producer and processor of non-fuel minerals including rare Earth minerals.

The executive order also speaks on arming the “American Energy Security” to an extent, where across the states, an abundant supply will be readily made accessible to protect the Trump administration’s economic, national and military needs. However, the order also eliminates the Biden government’s electric vehicle mandate to promote “true consumer choice for essential economic growth and innovation, remove the regulatory barriers to motor vehicle access, and terminate state emission waivers that function to limit sales of gasoline-powered automobiles.”

Energy efficiency regulations will be rolled back, involving lightbulbs, dishwashers, washing machines, gas stoves, water heaters, toilets and shower heads to safeguard Americans’ freedom to choose from a variety of goods and appliances and promote market competition.

“The Trump administration will ensure that all regulatory requirements for energy are grounded in clearly applicable law. The global effects of a rule, regulation or action will be reported separate from its domestic costs and benefits to promote sound regulatory decisions and prioritise the interests of Americans,” states the order further, while mandating all agency heads to review existing regulations to identify those that impose an undue burden on domestic energy resources (particularly, oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, biofuels, critical minerals and nuclear energy resources), and to develop a plan to suspend, revise or rescind such measures.

The executive order, in effect, has put an end to all activities, programmes and operations associated with the American Climate Corps, which was entrusted to fight the battle against climate change. All the heads of executive departments will now undertake efforts to eliminate delays with their respective permitting process and use all authorities, including emergency authorities, to expedite their federal permits, including a potential revision or reimagining of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process. The executive order will also prioritise accuracy in environmental analyses through the end of the “Interagency Working Group” on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases.

One of the most significant sections of the executive order is Section 7, which terminates the “Green New Deal,” by directing all agencies to immediately pause the disbursement of funds appropriated through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) or the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IJA), including but not limited to funds for electric vehicle charging stations made available through the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Programme.

“Although Section 7’s effect on the renewable energy tax credits under the IRA is unclear, it appears that the order is aimed at targeting grants, loans and contracts under the IRA and IJA, not tax credits. The IRA’s direct pay mechanism under Section 6417 of the Internal Revenue Code is not likely to be affected by this language since direct pay is a statutory method for claiming a tax refund and not a grant, loan or contract. If the executive order is interpreted to halt direct pay, it will likely be subject to considerable legal scrutiny and ultimately be overturned as taxpayers sue for direct pay payments that they are entitled to by statute,” observed United States-based law firm McGuireWoods.

Additionally, the secretary of energy will restart reviews of applications for approvals of liquified natural gas (LNG) export projects as expeditiously as possible, apart from considering the economic and employment impacts on the United States and on the security of allies and partners that would result from granting such applications.

The executive order also requires the secretary of the interior, secretary of agriculture, administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality and heads of other relevant agencies to revise undue burdens on the domestic mining and processing of nonfuel minerals.

Since Alaska holds an abundant and largely untapped supply of natural resources including energy, minerals, timber and seafood, the Trump administration has now directed the United States departments and agencies to maximise the development and production of natural resources (including LNG) efficiently and effectively on federal and state lands in the region. Federal departments and agencies are directed to prioritise the development of Alaska’s liquified natural gas potential.

Judging players’ reactions

While the new executive order has given a massive playing field for the oil and gas majors, several of these ventures have already warned about not looking to increase production unless prices increase significantly. In 2024, American oil and gas production rose to record highs. Crude output increased by 260,000 bpd month-on-month, to a record 13.46 million bpd, in October, in line with demand growth, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2024, drilling operations became more efficient, allowing for greater output. However, weaker-than-expected demand growth in several parts of the world, particularly China, contributed to lower oil prices.

Many oil and gas companies have shown support for Trump’s executive orders, which make it easier to conduct operations, including new exploration projects and production increases. However, several oil executives have said these new policies will not lead to an immediate output boost, stating concerns over oil prices. While Trump hopes to help reduce inflation by decreasing energy prices for consumers, many oil companies are hesitant to increase output without the guarantee of higher oil and gas prices.

Ron Gusek, the president of oil field services company Liberty Energy, said, “What you are seeing is a huge amount of positivity. But it’s too early to say that that’s going to translate into a change in actual activity levels here in North America.”

American energy majors have spent large amounts in increasing their oil and gas production in recent years. Things have only accelerated since 2022 in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent sanctions on Moscow’s energy trade, which created an oil and gas shortage around the globe and drove prices up, with Europe particularly feeling the pinch hard.

In addition, with the International Energy Agency’s warning that the demand for fossil fuels will decline from 2030, many oil and gas companies are exploiting their resources while global demand remains high. However, after several years of spending, many are reluctant to invest more without a guarantee of a return.

According to the EIA, Brent Benchmark crude oil prices are expected to average $74 per barrel in 2025, marking a decrease from $81 in 2024. However, with Trump being the US President, several customers have shown interest in signing long-term deals for US gas exports, according to Ben Dell, a managing partner of the energy investment firm Kimmeridge.

Dell noted, “People want to be early and in the forefront of signing up for US products to try and stave off potential tariff threats.”

Trump threatened to introduce 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products, including energy. The Republican also said that he planned to introduce the tariffs on his first day in office.

Following announcements of strong retaliatory measures from Ottawa and Mexico City, Trump has decided to pause his plans. The world’s largest economy will now pursue negotiations to address its bilateral concerns with its North and Latin American neighbours. If tariffs on oil and gas are introduced in the coming weeks, they could drive up energy prices and increase reliance on domestic production.

“We still expect Canadian oil producers to eventually bear most of the burden of the tariff with a $3 to $4 a barrel wider-than-normal discount on Canadian crude given limited alternative export markets, with US consumers of refined products bearing the remaining $2 to $3 a barrel burden. We estimate Canadian natural gas exports to the US might drop by a modest 0.16 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) as a result of 10% import tariffs, with little if any impact on US gas prices,” stated Goldman Sachs on the prospects of Washington imposing tariffs on Ottawa.

Will golden days arrive?

According to analysts at Scotiabank, United States-based exploration and production companies are expected to target 5% production growth in 2025, and flat to slightly lower year-over-year capital expenditures. This is except ExxonMobil, which has plans for a large increase in production.

Talking about ExxonMobil, the energy major has announced plans to increase its oil and gas output by 18% by 2030, with a focus on expanding its operations in the United States and Guyana. The plan includes raising annual project spending to $28-33 billion from 2026 to 2030. The company recently acquired US shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources. Exxon also plans to boost earnings by $20 billion and increase cash flow by $30 billion over the next five years.

This financial boost will support Exxon’s expansion plans in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, while also driving shareholder returns. The venture is already benefitting from its profitable Guyana operations and its growing US shale business. CEO Darren Woods has stated that the increased project spending would “generate returns of more than 30% over the life of the investments.”

The company intends to triple its production in the Permian Basin, the leading US shale field, to 2.3 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) by 2030. Additionally, Exxon aims to produce 1.3mbbl/d from its Guyana operations. Overall, ExxonMobil’s oil and gas output is projected to reach 5.4mbbl/d, marking an 18% increase from the current 4.58mbbl/d.

The company plans to add two projects in Guyana by 2030, aligning with its previous statement of seven to ten projects. Its LNG target remains at 40 million tonnes per annum. These targets aim to reassure shareholders that returns can be maintained despite fluctuations in oil market prices.

However, if we talk about the bigger picture, Wall Street expects American oil and gas companies to keep a lid on spending in 2025, while focussing more on generating shareholder returns, despite Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” call.

While Trump’s oil and gas production-maximising agenda has sky-high ambitions, the reality is that the industry has been driving down costs and increasing production by using more efficient technology rather than drilling many new wells. Producers are also contending with lower global oil prices as the post-COVID demand rebound runs its course, amid China’s economic slowdown.

During an interaction with Reuters, Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, “We expect most oil and gas producers to remain disciplined with capital expenditures. However, less regulation will make it easier to increase drilling activity if commodity prices reach levels that are too high.”

Another American energy major, Chevron, recently reported Q4 earnings below Wall Street estimates as weak margins dragged its refining business into a loss for the first time since 2020. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said that the post-COVID surge in fuel margins had run its course, and the downtrend is set to continue in 2025.

The second-largest American oil producer, one of the first companies to heed Trump’s executive order renaming the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America,” posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.06, way below Wall Street’s $2.11 estimate. Chevron’s downstream business lost $248 million in Q4, compared with a profit of $1.15 billion in the same period a year ago.

In a note, RBC analysts said profit from the company’s oil and gas exploration and production unit rose to $4.3 billion from $1.59 billion a year ago when the figure included charges, but the US business missed consensus estimates.

“A relatively soft set of numbers. With the strong run, CVX has had relative to peers over recent months, we expect these results to be taken as disappointing,” they remarked.

Chevron further noted a trend in the conventional energy sector: refining margins softening in both American and international markets, but weak jet fuel demand aggravating troubles for the American energy majors’ domestic businesses.

The company has also remained locked in a bitter arbitration battle with Exxon over its proposed $53-billion takeover of Hess, which owns a 30% stake in Exxon’s Guyana holdings.

“Producer ConocoPhillips could also grow oil and gas production in the low single-digit percentage in 2025 to focus on returning cash to shareholders,” Barclays said.

In December 2024, the company completed its $22.5 billion buyout of smaller peer Marathon Oil, which had been under a Federal Trade Commission review. According to Scotiabank analysts, this could swing its performance up.

“Occidental, meanwhile, is expected to report $730.9 million in adjusted profit for the fourth quarter, up from $710 million in the same quarter last year. The oil producer closed its acquisition of CrownRock in August and its capex this year is expected to total $7.44 billion, up from $6.9 billion last year,” Barclays continued, while adding, “For Diamondback Energy, Raymond James analysts expect the company to choose free cash flow over growth after its acquisition of Endeavor. Profit is expected to come in at $977 million, up from $854 million in the same quarter last year. Production growth is expected to be flat with lesser spending in 2025.”

Rob Thummel, a senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, said “We expect most oil and gas producers to remain disciplined with capital expenditures. However, less regulation will make it easier to increase drilling activity if commodity prices reach levels that are too high.”

“Despite Trump’s best efforts to immediately push oil and gas production up, it appears that the American fossil fuel producers will only increase output if the price is right. The introduction of several executive orders favouring oil and gas will make it easier to develop new projects and produce more if oil majors desire. It could also encourage more customers to invest in American oil and gas, to avoid tariffs on foreign energy products. However, it is unlikely to have an immediate effect on the oil and gas output-related activities in the world’s largest economy, which is already at a record high, unless the Brent Benchmark looks set to increase,” noted Oilprice.com.

The slogan “Drill, Baby, Drill” is simply unattainable, especially considering that profit margins for fuel sales dropped significantly across the industry in 2024. This decline was driven by a fading surge in post-pandemic demand and a slowdown in economic activity in both the United States and China.

However, there is a development that could brighten the prospects for energy sector players. As the demand for artificial intelligence (AI) continues to rise, data centres are becoming essential components of the 21st-century tech ecosystem. These data centres provide the computational power necessary to train complex algorithms and manage vast amounts of data. Consequently, there is an estimated need for an additional 47 gigawatts of power capacity across the United States by 2030.

Notably, approximately 60% of this US demand is expected to be met by natural gas, thereby creating significant growth opportunities for oil and gas suppliers. Globally, the demand for natural gas will rise substantially, with some analysts forecasting up to 50% market growth over the next five years.

The post Can US energy sector go “Drill, Baby, Drill?” appeared first on International Finance.

According to reports, these future supplies of critical minerals are likely to emerge from a combination of field data parsed by artificial intelligence (AI), providing a glimpse into how the industry will operate in the coming days.

While speaking with TechCrunch, Roman Teslyuk, founder and CEO of Earth AI, stated, “The actual, real frontier [in mining] is not so much geographical as it is technological.”

His company has identified deposits of copper, cobalt, and gold in Australia’s Northern Territory, and silver, molybdenum, and tin at another site in New South Wales, 310 miles (500 kilometres) northwest of Sydney.

Earth AI emerged from Teslyuk’s graduate studies. The Ukraine native, while working toward a doctorate at the University of Sydney, became familiar with Australia’s mining industry. There, the government owns the rights to mineral deposits and leases them for six-year terms. According to Teslyuk, under the current rule, exploration companies are required to submit their data to a national archive.

“For some reason, nobody’s using them. If I could build an algorithm that can absorb all that knowledge and learn from the failures and successes of millions of geologists in the past, I can make much better predictions about where to find minerals in the future,” he said.

In today’s episode of the “Start-up of the Week,” International Finance will discuss in detail how Earth AI is redefining 21st-century mining activities.

Knowing The Company In Detail

Earth AI, in its early days, started as a software company focused on making predictions about potential deposits before approaching customers who might be interested in exploring sites further. However, customers were hesitant to invest, partly due to their reluctance to spend millions on the predictions of an “unproven technology.”

To address this hesitancy, Earth AI developed its own drilling equipment to prove that the sites it identified were as promising as its software suggested. The company was accepted into Y Combinator’s Spring 2019 cohort and spent the next few years refining its hardware and software.

In January 2025, Earth AI raised a USD 20 million Series B. Even though the company uses AI to search for minerals, the start-up takes a different approach in terms of algorithms, as the latter has been trained to scan wide areas quickly and efficiently to find deposits that might otherwise have been overlooked.

With the global economy’s rush toward a net-zero transition, Earth AI’s prospects look bright, given the explosion in demand for critical metals.

Earth AI is now aiming to help mineral explorers discover untapped critical metal deposits at half the cost and in a fraction of the time through its AI-driven field data parsing method (the process of analysing and converting data from one format to another, typically to make it more structured, readable, and usable for analysis or storage), offering its clients three significant benefits: the lowest drilling costs, precise prospect detection, and minimal environmental impact.

“With accurate AI-driven prospect detection, modular hardware, and streamlined operations, Earth AI can move from detecting a prospect to drilling in just three to six months. Our revenue model is independent of service profits, and our process is four times faster than traditional methods. Once a discovery is made, we partner with explorers and development companies to bring these deposits into production,” the start-up stated.

Meet The Key Technology

Earth AI is decoding complex geology and turbocharging exploration drilling to scale up mineral exploration. With the industry’s most precise mineral detection technology, fundamental geology, and responsible drilling, the start-up now possesses the ability to move from detecting a prospect to drill testing in just three to six months. At the heart of these efforts remains Earth AI’s “Mineral Discovery Engine,” a system of key processes and technologies that bring precision, efficiency, and scalability to critical minerals exploration.

The “Mineral Discovery Engine” has its own prediction tools, which Earth AI claims are the “most accurate in the mining industry,” improving discovery success rates from 0.5% to 66%.

“By studying multiple datasets and learning to identify mineralisation, our AI replicates and scales the mind of a geoscientist. Our models train on 400 million geological cases from the entire continent, creating new knowledge and formulating conclusions. This experience, achieved through extensive training, allows us to deliver repeatable, high-quality predictions,” the venture explained.

To understand the origin of mineralisation, the start-up applies a generalist approach to studying and understanding the geology of the area. With every project, data leads the way. Earth AI then applies a unique set of field and laboratory methods to decode the mineral system, form hypotheses, and test them through drilling. This approach leads to the detection of brand-new prospects.

Earth AI has added another first to its achievements by developing the first modular drilling system for self-sufficient mineral exploration in remote desert environments. From drilling hardware and fluid treatment systems to crew housing, the start-up has meticulously optimised every step in the process while minimising environmental impact.

Earth AI’s mineral exploration activities follow three stages: discovery (one year), feasibility study (three years), and mine construction (two years). During this five-year cycle, the “Mineral Discovery Engine” and its “Mineral Targeting Platform” predict areas with possible mineral enrichment, followed by the start-up’s field teams sampling the sites to confirm or deny the presence of minerals.

Earth AI then conducts generalist geological research to understand the mineral system and plan drilling. During this phase, each drill hole tests a hypothesis. The learnings derived from this process are then applied to refine future hypotheses. Next, the mining alliance partners working with Earth AI take the deposit through the feasibility stage, and upon clearance, the metals enter the production stage. After feasibility confirms the site’s economic viability, mine construction begins.

A single mine in Australia, with a lifespan ranging from eight to over 100 years, can produce annual revenues from USD 50 million to USD 3 billion. Earth AI uses drill samples of economic-grade ore as its “success criteria,” after which it gains a perpetual royalty from the mine’s revenue.

At the same time, commercial miners partnering with the start-up benefit from its efficient, modular drilling design and streamlined operations, translating into best-in-class drilling economics. Additionally, the drilling system requires no groundwork and causes close to zero environmental impact, while the onboard mud filtration system minimises water wastage and prevents soil contamination, reducing downtime and costs.

The Willow Glen Success Story

Another success story of Earth AI is its discovery of a new gold system at its molybdenum-gold project in Willow Glen. The discovery, made using AI software to drill 650 metres of rock, yielded seven intercept samples of mineralised gold. The discovery was of economic-grade gold, at approximately 1.14 grams of gold per tonne of rock. Earth AI will follow up with continued mapping and drilling to assess the nature of the mineralisation and the size, grade, and economic value of the deposit.

Earth AI acquired the project in May 2021, following a state-wide analysis using its patented AI software to develop predictive clusters of potential base metal targets. Predictive targets were subsequently investigated, and areas of surface metal enrichments became targets for the maiden drilling campaign that commenced in December 2022. By January 2025, six diamond drill holes had been drilled, totalling 3,000 metres in length.

The post Start-up of the Week: Earth AI discovers untapped Aussie mineral deposits appeared first on International Finance.

IFM Correspondent

June 7, 2016: About 50% of all oil and gas companies in the UK were forced to cut jobs in the past 12 months, says a recent report. The Bank of Scotland/Lloyds Banking Group surveyed 141 companies in the sector. The report further states that a third of the businesses planned to cut jobs further during the year. Since the slump in oil prices, the industry has been facing a tough time. Cuts have been announced by producers, contractors who work alongside producers’ workforces, and by suppliers of specialised skills and equipment, but many of these announcements also include positions that are based overseas. There have also been announced losses – jobs which have gone in low, single digits from smaller companies, self-employed workers whose contracts have dried up, or by the non-replacement of retirees. Since the survey has not picked up these minute details, it has not sought to quantify the UK employment.

The worst hit sectors have been drilling (83% of companies recording jobs lost), marine services (66% have made reductions) and inspection, repair and maintenance companies (70% recording job losses). Further, the study states that the younger generation prefer to look away from the oil and gas industry, thanks to its uncertain nature. Two-fifths (41%) of those surveyed thought that young people would not see the sector as a viable career option, creating a skills gap that is further exacerbated by the cyclical nature of the industry.

It may be recalled that during the 2008 global recession, a number of organisations cut back or stopped their graduate programmes for a couple of years. Stuart White, industry specialist with Bank of Scotland, says, “This trend is a big concern and will automatically mean that there is a gap in the supply of talented men and women coming into the industry. But there are some who believe that concerns surrounding the sector would dissipate once the industry is on an upwards trajectory.”

Silver lining among dark clouds

It has been often noticed that adversities create great ideas. And the same has been true for the oil and gas industry. The industry has faced some severe employment downside, but there are still opportunities which present some potential upside. Though the sector as a whole is reducing its capital spending, many companies have developed strategies to move forward. More than half of all companies surveyed (55%) believed that there are new opportunities despite the current business climate. Amongst all businesses, diversification tops the list of potential new opportunities (51%).

For example, Total, Europe’s third-largest company in deepwater production and liquefied natural gas (LNG), aims to raise $15 billion through asset sales between 2015 and 2017 to spend on projects such as the Laggan/Tormore gas fields west of Shetland, which came on stream in February 2016. Although it cost £3.5 billion ($5 billion) to develop, its use of sub-sea installations instead of platforms keeps operational cost low.

Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive, Total, said, “The opportunities will really come if oil prices remain low over a longer period. Then you will see real opportunities for major companies like Total”.

At the same time, there are opportunities at the other end of the business size scale,particularly for small companies which have developed specialist skills and technologies that cut costs and improve efficiency. The smaller companies want to invest in renewables,though many are unsure about the government’s stand towards the sector.

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