On the evening of August 18, phones across the UAE lit up with an emergency alert. The Ministry of Defence later confirmed that two ballistic missiles had been launched from Iran towards the country, one falling outside territorial waters and one inside.

It was the first such warning in over a month, and it landed a day after the 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Washington and Tehran expired with no successor agreement in place.

By the next morning, Abu Dhabi had imposed an indefinite trade embargo on Iran. Tehran had denied firing anything at all. A Shakira concert in the capital was cancelled along with the festival built around it.

That is the backdrop against which Dubai is currently asking its residents to invite their relatives over for a holiday.

Launched on July 20 by the Department of Economy and Tourism, A Dubai Invite offers UAE citizens and residents a package of hotel, dining, and attraction benefits worth more than AED 3,000, or roughly USD 800, if a nominated friend or family member arrives in the emirate on a tourist visa before October 31. Residents can claim up to three packages.

The perks remain valid until the end of the year. It is a referral scheme, essentially, of the kind a challenger bank might run to grow its deposit base, and it is being deployed by a destination that welcomed 19.59 million international overnight visitors in 2025, its third consecutive record year.

What actually happened to the numbers
Dubai hotels ran at 84.7% occupancy in February before the US and Israel struck Iran on February 28, and Iran began retaliating against American allies across the Gulf.

In the war’s first six weeks, more than 530 ballistic missiles, dozens of cruise missiles, and over 2,200 drones were directed at the UAE. Within 48 hours of the opening strikes, hotel booking cancellations across Dubai were running at 60%, and more than 80,000 short-term rental bookings went in the first week alone.

By mid-March, occupancy in Dubai had bottomed out at 19.6%. CoStar recorded 33.1% for the month as a whole, a fall of 54.4% year-on-year, with the Emirates-wide figure at 36.2%. The World Travel and Tourism Council put the cost to the wider Middle East at USD 600 million a day in lost visitor spending, roughly USD 180 million of it attributable to the UAE.

The damage did not stay in the hospitality accounts. Real estate transaction volumes fell 37% year-on-year during the first twelve days of March, and 49% against February, on Goldman Sachs figures.

A downgrade of nearly four percentage points by the institution with the best view of the domestic data is not a rounding adjustment. It is an admission that the disruption is not confined to a bad quarter in the hotel trade.

The same report pencils in a rebound to 9.8% in 2027, which tells you how the authorities are framing this. The loss is being treated as deferred rather than destroyed, a hole that fills in once the shooting stops.

Why the recovery is stuck in the middle
The first-half hotel data shows a market that has come off the floor without returning to anything like normal. UAE-wide occupancy fell nearly 28 percentage points year-on-year through June, with revenue per available room down 31.8%, on CBRE analysis of CoStar data.

Dubai took the worst of it, with occupancy down 24.6 points to 56.4% and RevPAR off 35.2%. Average daily rates slipped 7% to AED 701. After the Eid spike, June settled back into the high forties and low fifties.

Abu Dhabi saw occupancy fall only 13.5 points and RevPAR 20.3%, cushioned by domestic and regional demand, and a fixed events calendar. The split is instructive. Dubai’s model, built on long-haul arrivals and transit traffic, is the one most exposed to airspace closures, insurance exclusions, and nervous consumers eight time zones away.

Meanwhile, the quiet closures continue. Several landmark properties have shut for extended refurbishment, including Anantara World Islands and the Burj Al Arab, the latter for an estimated 18 months of capital work.

None has publicly linked the timing to the war. Taking rooms out of a market with no demand is sound asset management. It is also, unmistakably, a supply response to a demand shock.

The honest position
The UAE has the fiscal depth to absorb a bad year without distress, a diversified non-oil base that is still growing, and a genuine record of recovering from regional shocks with prices and volumes higher on the far side.

GlobalData expects UAE international arrivals to fall about 12% this year to 26.4 million before rebounding to 32.1 million in 2027. Dubai is targeting a return towards 19.6 million visitors, and betting heavily on the winter season and on projects such as the USD 3.9 billion Wynn resort at Al Marjan Island in 2027.

But a forecast is not an observation. Every recovery scenario now being briefed rests on de-escalation, and this week, that assumption looked thinner than it has since May. The memorandum has lapsed, the naval blockade is in force, Tehran says its posture has shifted from defensive to offensive, and missiles were fired towards the Emirates again.

The dichotomy, then, is not really between a struggling economy and an optimistic government. It is between a balance sheet that can wait and a business model that cannot. Sovereign wealth buys time. It does not buy a ceasefire, and it does not persuade a family in Manchester or Melbourne to book a beach holiday under a Level 3 advisory.

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HH Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman of the Dubai Supreme Council of Energy, said the launch marked a strategic step in extending Dubai’s expertise across energy, water, sustainability and digital transformation.

“Thanks to the vision and directives of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, Dubai has become a global model for achievement and accelerated development. Through its world-class infrastructure, particularly in the energy and water sectors, Dubai has firmly established itself as a leading international benchmark,” the official said further.

He further added that DEWA International would strengthen Dubai’s position as a global source of knowledge and technical expertise.

Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD and CEO of DEWA, said the authority’s operational and financial performance had created a strong foundation for international expansion.

“At its core, DEWA embodies Dubai’s inspiring success story. For decades, DEWA has powered Dubai’s extraordinary rise, not through ambition alone, but through the highest performance and efficiency,” Al Tayer said.

DEWA currently ranks first globally across 13 key utility performance indicators and two regional benchmarks covering generation, transmission, distribution and customer service. Apart from that, the authority, in 2025, recorded revenue of AED32.8 billion, while net profit after tax reached a record AED9.06 billion.

As per the Al Tayer, the financial strength has also provided DEWA with the investment capacity and strategic flexibility required to pursue global expansion-related opportunities.

“DEWA International will develop both power and water projects using advanced technologies and will work with leading organisations around the world. The subsidiary is already identifying investment opportunities, building a project pipeline and establishing strategic partnerships intended to shape its future global presence,” the official noted.

“The new company will draw on DEWA’s experience in utility operations, infrastructure delivery, clean energy, digital transformation and sustainable development as it expands into international markets,” Al Tayer concluded.

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The figure, revealed by the Dubai Customs, surpassed the previous record of USD 40.9 billion, set in 2011. The 2025 total was also accompanied by a record 359.5 million carats traded, up 42.5% year-on-year, marking the first such occasion, in which Dubai posted a record in both diamond trade value and physical volume in the same year.

“Total diamond trade value across all categories rose 16.2% year-on-year, from USD 35.8 billion in 2024, adding USD 5.8 billion in a single year. Records were broken in other categories, with trade in coloured gemstones reaching USD 1.1 billion in 2025, up 48% year-on-year,” Dubai Customs data noted.

Dubai’s diamond sector has seen a steady growth momentum in the last few years. Since 2020, total trade through the Emirati city has increased 139% in value and 100% in volume, reflecting its growing role as the preferred gateway connecting producing countries, manufacturing centres and consumer markets across the global diamond industry.

Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, DMCC, said, “Dubai’s latest diamond trade figures demonstrate the success of a long-term strategy to build the world’s most connected, transparent, and efficient precious stones ecosystem. Since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, we have seen trade through Dubai double in physical volume and grow by almost 140% in value. For natural polished diamonds alone, value has grown by 246%. We are the partner of choice for producers, manufacturers, traders, and retailers across the global industry. Through world-class infrastructure, regulatory certainty, access to finance, and one of the world’s most sophisticated ecosystems for precious stones, we will continue to provide the platform the industry needs to grow.”

“The record was driven primarily by continued strength in natural diamonds, which generated USD 39.9 billion in trade during 2025 and accounted for 95.8% of total diamond trade value. Rough diamonds delivered particularly strong momentum,” the official added further.

In 2025, Dubai traded 205.2 million carats of natural rough diamonds, representing the second-highest volume on record and an increase of approximately 34% compared to 2024.

In the natural polished category, trade value reached USD 18.7 billion during the year, a rise of nearly 25% year-on-year. Since 2020, total natural polished trade through Dubai has increased by 246% in value, with the average value per carat increasing approximately eight- to ninefold.

Natural diamonds have become one of the economic foundations of Dubai’s commodity marketplace, despite the recent expansion of gemstone trade and other diamond categories.

The latest figures further reinforce a longer-term shift in the global diamond trade, with Dubai’s diamond trade increasing 63% by value and 44% by volume over the past decade.

Dubai’s wider diamond and precious stones ecosystem is witnessing rapid growth as well, with coloured gemstone trade achieving an all-time high, as imports rose 68.8% and re-exports increased 33.5%, demonstrating growth across both sourcing and distribution verticals.

On the other hand, synthetic and industrial diamonds together now account for approximately 39% of total diamond carat volume.

To build upon the momentum further, Dubai Diamond Exchange (DDE) has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the London Diamond Bourse (LDB), with the goal of bolstering the international diamond and gemstone trade.

As per the DMCC, the agreement advances closer collaboration by focusing on promoting responsible trade, facilitating commercial opportunities, encouraging knowledge exchange and increasing cooperation among members.

The partnership will also strengthen dialogue on issues affecting the international diamond industry, enabling both bourses to respond better to changes in the global marketplace.

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“Abu Dhabi’s real estate market is evolving toward a more balanced and sustainable growth trajectory. On the supply side, the residential sector maintained a steady delivery rhythm in Q1 2026, with approximately 1,200 units added, while a further 7,000 units are scheduled for completion by year-end,” the report said.

“Development activity also reached record levels, with 22 new projects added to the pipeline, including nine branded residential schemes. In Q1 2026, the rental market transitioned toward a more measured environment, with citywide apartment averages rising 15% year-on-year, while mid-end developments exceeded 20%. The residential villa segment recorded a marginal 1% quarterly increase and 6% annual growth. Notable yearly gains of 7%-10% were sustained in high-quality communities on Yas Island, as well as in specific mid-quality developments such as Al Reef,” it added further.

Talking about the commercial real estate segment, the office market maintained strong performance, with occupancy levels exceeding 95%. Rents across all grades recorded annual growth of between 8% and 20%.

The primary office inventory was bolstered by the handover of Shams Tower on Al Reem Island, with the market currently monitoring the imminent completion of Masdar City Square and The Link, both of which are already capturing robust occupier interest.

As per the Colliers, the trend reflects a continuing appetite for sustainable Grade A workspace within the UAE capital’s core business districts.

“Residential transaction activity in Abu Dhabi continued to accelerate in Q1 2026, with approximately 7,800 deals recorded, reflecting a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 119% surge year-on-year. Average apartment and villa sales prices recorded quarterly growth of 4% and 2% and annual increases of 32% and 21%, respectively,” the agency noted.

A similar trend was seen in Dubai as well, where the real estate market is moving beyond rapid growth into a more mature phase, well-positioned to weather short-term volatility (arising due to the Iran war) on the back of strong fundamentals and ongoing infrastructure investment.

On the supply side, new apartment deliveries exceeded the 10,000-unit threshold for the second consecutive month, while approximately 1,900 villas were delivered during Q1 2026.

“The development pipeline remains substantial, with an additional 65,000 apartments and 12,500 villas scheduled for delivery by year-end, although some deliveries are expected to extend into subsequent periods. During Q1 2026, the rental market demonstrated a robust overall performance, with quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) metrics maintaining a generally positive trajectory,” Colliers’ UAE Real Estate Market Report remarked.

“Average apartment rents grew marginally by 2%, supported by sustained demand in the affordable housing segment. While average villa rates remained stable throughout the quarter, the market showed a more nuanced performance at the community level, with tenants adopting a more value-driven approach,” it noted.

Both the residential and commercial verticals maintained their growth trajectory throughout Q1 2026, though the period was characterised by a notable shift in sector-specific demand.

Off-plan transaction volumes, as per Colliers’, “remained intrinsically linked to the frequency of project launches and subsequent registration timelines”.

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The consultation, announced through Consultation Paper No. 172 (CP 172), proposes several updates, including clearer guidance on when authorised firms must obtain Islamic finance endorsements, enhanced disclosure requirements for Takaful products, and technical amendments to the DFSA’s Islamic Finance Rules module to provide greater regulatory clarity for firms operating Islamic financial services within the DIFC jurisdiction.

The initiative also aligns with the UAE’s broader strategies focused on expanding its Islamic finance sector, including the UAE Strategy for Islamic Finance and Halal Industry and Dubai’s D33 Economic Agenda. The strategy for Islamic finance and the halal industry, launched in 2025, aims to solidify the Gulf as a major global hub for Sharia-compliant economies by 2031. The framework’s key goals are doubling Islamic banking assets to over AED 2.56 trillion (USD 697 billion) and growing Sukuk listings to over AED 660 billion.

D33 Economic Agenda is a 10-year strategy (2023–2033) launched by UAE PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum to execute the Middle East nation’s vision of doubling Dubai’s economy to AED 32 trillion, solidifying the urban centre’s position as a top-three global city.

According to DFSA data, the UAE remains one of the leading global markets for Islamic finance, while the DIFC has become one of the world’s largest venues for Sukuk listings, with more than USD 100 billion in outstanding Sukuk issuances.

Charlotte Robins, Managing Director of Policy & Legal at the DFSA, told Emirates News Agency (WAM) that the regulator aims to ensure firms have the clarity needed to operate with confidence as adoption of Islamic finance continues to grow globally.

Among the key proposals under CP 172, the DFSA plans to clarify circumstances where firms presenting products or services as Sharia-compliant would need an Islamic endorsement. Takaful products, on the other hand, will need stronger disclosure requirements, including transparency around fee calculations, surplus-sharing mechanisms, and additional contribution obligations for participants.

“The regulator emphasised that firms distributing Islamic financial products without directly representing them as Sharia-compliant may not require additional endorsements, provided existing client protection obligations are met,” WAM reported.

“Industry participants, authorised firms, advisers, and market institutions are invited to submit comments through the DFSA’s online response platform until June 19, 2026. Following the consultation period, the DFSA will review feedback before finalising potential amendments to the Rulebook,” it added.

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“The DMCC Maritime Centre builds on an established base of more than 150 maritime-related companies operating within the district across shipping, logistics, marine services and trade support. The new centre formalises this activity into a structured, transaction-oriented ecosystem aimed at increasing value capture across maritime trade. It reflects a broader shift in the global shipping industry, where companies are increasingly aligning themselves with jurisdictions that offer a combination of trade flows, access to capital and depth of supporting services,” DMCC said.

Instead of functioning like a regulator or port operator, the centre will serve as a commercial platform bringing together the full architecture surrounding shipping activity, including maritime finance, insurance, legal services, digital documentation, risk management and commercial intelligence.

“In doing so, the Centre is designed to ensure that more of the value generated by global shipping is structured, financed and retained within Dubai. This includes enabling stronger connectivity between shipowners, operators, financiers, insurers, legal advisors and technology providers within a single integrated environment,” DMCC remarked.

“Shipping today is not only about the movement of goods but about how that activity is financed, structured and managed. With the DMCC Maritime Centre, we are building the ecosystem around that reality. We are bringing together the companies, capital and services that sit around maritime trade and creating the conditions for more of that value to be captured here in Dubai,” said Ahmed Bin Sulayem, DMCC’s Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

“Working in close alignment with DMCC FinX and DMCC Wealth Hub, the Maritime Centre will connect maritime trade with access to capital, financing and risk management, while supporting the structuring and preservation of wealth linked to shipping and trade assets. This is a natural extension of our model, and it reflects the next phase of growth for both DMCC and the wider trade landscape,” the senior official remarked.

The Maritime Centre will operate in close alignment with DMCC’s wider ecosystems, particularly DMCC FinX and DMCC Wealth Hub, creating a more integrated platform around maritime trade. Through FinX, maritime businesses will be able to access capital, financing solutions and risk management tools that will be directly linked to real shipping activities such as vessel finance and freight-related receivables.

The Wealth Hub, on the other hand, will support shipowners, principals and maritime entrepreneurs in structuring and managing capital flow connected to trade and shipping assets. Taking all these divisions together, the centre will create a more complete environment where physical trade, financial structuring and capital preservation will sit within a single, connected ecosystem.

“The formalisation of the Maritime Centre represents the evolution of DMCC’s earlier Dubai Maritime Club, launched in 2016 as a platform for dialogue and industry engagement. The new Centre moves beyond networking to create a fully-fledged economic cluster focused on execution, services and value creation,” the free zone concluded.

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More than 13,100 accredited consultants and contractors have benefited from its awareness sessions and instructional videos, underscoring the platform’s growing role in smoothing the path for construction professionals across the emirate.

OWNEK, the Arabic word for “Your Help,” was designed with a straightforward premise. Too many project applications fail on the first submission, not because the work is substandard, but because applicants misunderstand DEWA’s documentation requirements.

The platform addresses this directly, offering step-by-step guidance in Arabic and English on how to apply for electricity connections, fill out application forms correctly, prepare the right documents in the required formats, and meet all necessary protocols before a single form is officially filed.

The practical result is that contractors and consultants increasingly secure approval for electricity connection applications, including the preliminary no-objection certificate (PNOC), on the first attempt, saving time and cutting the cost of delays.

Feedback from industry professionals has been positive. Mohammed Naseeh at Mazari Contracting LLC said the platform clearly lays out the steps required for PNOC applications and highlights key technical requirements and compliance standards, helping consultants and contractors prepare accurate submissions and avoid rejections.

Usman Jelani at Fixtech Technical Services LLC described it as reflecting a highly professional approach that supports first-submission approvals and DEWA’s commitment to customer convenience and continuous innovation.

MuthuKumar Elangovan at Al Manama Contracting LLC noted that the videos simplify the PNOC submission process by clearly outlining required technical inputs, including load details, plot information, service routing and compliance with DEWA standards.

Ahmed Nael at MEPCO Electro Mechanical Works LLC added that the tutorials offer comprehensive step-by-step guidance covering all required inputs for low-voltage design, including layout requirements, design documentation and submission guidelines.

The tutorial videos also demonstrate what DEWA’s inspection engineers look for during both high-voltage substation and low-voltage inspections, giving contractors a direct view into the evaluation process.

OWNEK sits within DEWA’s broader effort to support Dubai’s Economic Agenda D33, which targets doubling the size of the emirate’s economy over the next decade and cementing its place among the world’s top three cities. For an authority managing infrastructure connections across a rapidly growing metropolis, reducing submission errors and accelerating approvals is not merely an administrative convenience. It is a foundational requirement for keeping pace with Dubai’s growth.

Image Credits: DEWA

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As of March 11, three commercial container vessels were struck by missiles or drones in Gulf waters within days of each other. These incidents included a Thai-flagged vessel that was hit 11 nautical miles north of Oman, a Japanese vessel that struck off the coast of the UAE, and a third vessel targeted northwest of Dubai. And they weren’t near misses or accidents; most were hit directly. This has changed how logistics works in the region.

The industry has responded quickly, though cargo owners have been disoriented. Major container ship operators terminated their contracts, offloaded their legal obligations, and dropped containers at the nearest safe port. However, “the nearest available port” is a loosely applied concept. Because operators make unilateral decisions about where goods land, there is little transparency or logic behind their choices. Cargo owners are now finding their shipments stranded in ports they never contracted for.

Ports in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have suspended operations entirely, while others are working with significant delays. Although the global port network remains open, it is currently absorbing a surge of redirected traffic that has led to congestion and vessel bunching at major hubs like Singapore and Rotterdam. This phenomenon, where ships must queue because ports cannot process arrivals fast enough, has created a prominent side effect characterised by rising labour costs, lower unloading speeds, and significant strains on storage capacity.

Cargo owners will bear the brunt of this catastrophe in the coming days. Goods are sitting exposed at ports without adequate storage infrastructure and are vulnerable to loss and damage.

Recovering these losses depends on the contracts that were signed between shippers and vessel owners, though they vary from company to company and contract to contract. Delay-related losses are usually excluded under the standard Institute Cargo Clauses (A), meaning the cargo policy simply will not pay out.

In addition to cargo owners, ports and terminals face significant hardships as congestion-related incidents become increasingly common and insurance coverage remains dependent on regional policies.

Consequently, businesses moving goods through Gulf waters must review their contracts, stress test their insurance coverage, and prepare for persistent delays and rerouting for the duration of the conflict.

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“Just over 69% of all sales transactions in the secondary market were conducted in cash, as the sector accelerated well beyond the levels seen in the first two months of 2025, which ultimately set all-time annual sales records in value and volume,” the report stated.

The corroborates with the latest data from the local Land Department, that showed the growing resilience of the market, despite the ongoing conflict in the region. Up to February 28, while over 4,800 transactions worth nearly AED 16 billion (approximately USD 4.3 billion) got recorded, most of them were for apartments, with villas, plots, and commercial properties constituting the remaining.

Also, all the major real estate players, including UAE government-backed Emaar Properties, Nakheel Properties, and Dubai Properties, reported extensive sales, while private developers like Damac and Danube also experiencing greener pastures. Despite regional tensions, flagship projects such as Dubai Islands, Jumeirah Village Circle and Dubai Investments Park have continued to attract buyers.

Data from PropTech platform DXBinteract further showed that sales transactions in February climbed by 18.4% in value YoY to AED60.8 billion from 16,979 deals, a 5.1% YoY increase in volume. In January and February 2026, total sales transactions climbed 38.8% in value to AED133.3, as the number of deals rose by 13.32% to 34,452 compared with the same period in 2025.

“The data tells a clear story of how Dubai continues to strengthen its position as one of the world’s most dynamic real estate markets, after a record-breaking month in January. All the early growth we have seen so far this year has been built from firm foundations. That has been reinforced by the enormous lengths that the UAE government goes to in order to safeguard all its citizens, and the country’s business infrastructure, during uncertain times,” said Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fam Properties.

“This is something that we have all witnessed over the last few days, and it sends a powerful message of stability, security, and unwavering commitment, reinforcing why Dubai and the UAE remain premier global destinations for living, working, and investing in property,” he added.

Dubai’s commercial sector was the top performer in February, with office and retail sales totalling 804 deals worth AED4.1 billion, an 81.5% volume jump. The number of apartments sold, on the other hand, climbed by 13.4% to 12,916 deals, thereby amounting to AED 26.6 billion.

“Plots sales also increased in volume by 25.3% YoY to 446 deals worth AED 11.2 billion, while villa sales were down 29.3% in volume YoY to 2,802 valued at AED18.8 billion. The average property price per sqft was up by 12.2% YoY to AED1,740. Overall, Dubai property sales in February have grown steadily over the past five years, from AED7.4 billion (3,800 transactions) in 2021 to AED15.5 billion (6,200) in 2022, AED27.2 billion (9,400) in 2023, AED36.9 billion (12,000) in 2024 and AED 51.3 billion (16,200) in 2025,” the report noted.

“The most expensive villa sold in February was a luxury property at La Mer, which fetched AED350 million, while the most expensive apartment went for AED226 million at The Alba Residences at Palm Jumeirah. With properties worth more than AED5 million accounting for 12.68% of sales, 12.67% were between AED3-5 million, 18.14% between AED2-3 million, 32.41% between AED1-2 million and 24.1% were below AED1 million,” fam Properties concluded.

BEST-SELLING PROJECTS IN FEBRUARY 2026

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In fact, according to Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister, if the ongoing conflict forces Gulf energy producers to ⁠shut down exports within weeks, it could drive oil to USD 150 a barrel. In response to the US-Israel joint strikes on its territory, which were launched on February 28, Tehran has stopped the traffic of tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of global daily oil supply. The conflict has also resulted in the disruption of output, as refineries and liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants are facing shutdowns.

“Every day the Strait stays closed, prices will go higher. The belief in the market was that Donald Trump might pull back at some point because he doesn’t want to have high oil prices, but the longer that takes, the clearer it is how much is at risk,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, while interacting with Reuters.

As per a White House official, the Donald Trump administration will likely announce measures to combat rising energy prices from the conflict.

In fact, the Treasury granted waivers on March 5 for companies to buy sanctioned Russian oil stored on tankers to ease supply constraints that have resulted in Asia-based refineries cutting fuel processing. As per the ship-tracking firm Kpler, about ⁠30 million barrels of Russian oil are available and loaded on vessels in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea region and Singapore Strait, including volumes in floating storage.

Meanwhile, spot Middle East crude premiums have spiked to multi-year highs in the first week of March, a trend that also suggests higher costs for regional refiners, with the latter struggling to find immediate alternatives and facing potential output cuts, resulting in the global hike for crude prices.

Along with Brent crude futures and West Texas Intermediate, benchmark Dubai’s cash premium jumped to USD 19.63 per barrel, the reported highest from 2018. Premiums for Oman and Murban crude also soared, hitting USD 19.15 and USD 17.87 per barrel, respectively.

“Dubai spreads have surged as crude exports remain stranded within the Middle East Gulf, making price discovery nearly impossible. We expect Strait of Hormuz disruptions to continue through at least mid-March. There are concerns that Dubai price assessment will be nearly impossible once Oman- and Fujairah-loading Murban shipment volumes are exhausted this cycle,” said Richard Jones, a crude analyst at ⁠Energy Aspects, while interacting with Reuters.

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