Bitcoin (BTC) saw a brutal sell-off in early 2026 as it plunged from a peak of $126,000 to below $63,000. This has led people to try deciphering the market realities, as the crash exposed the cracks in the mythology of Bitcoin as an ever-booming asset.

Most analysts believe it was a new financial era. The digital asset broke the six-figure threshold in late 2024, and by early 2025, it was seen as the most coveted asset in this new financial landscape. The spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) brought Wall Street money into the crypto market, and the Trump administration, which was initially hostile to cryptocurrencies, became incredibly friendly.

Of course, there was also the halving cycle. Bitcoin’s four-yearly supply shock was as punctual as always. By October 2025, the price touched $126,000, and the faithful acolytes and crypto billionaires were already mapping $200,000 and beyond.

Then the bottom fell out. Prices have been slashed in half from their October peak, with the price plunging way below the $63,000 mark in February 2026 for a staggering fall of around 50% in just four months. This crash has caused significant panic in the market as billions of dollars disappeared over a handful of sessions, and many leveraged traders were flushed out. Furthermore, the Spot ETF, which was intended to legitimise the cryptocurrency as a stable asset, instead forced sellers to mechanically dump coins in a market that was already collapsing.

Yes, it was a bloody season, even by crypto’s permissive standards, but this article is not about how bad it was, but what it reveals. Is crypto the new digital gold, or is it just a speculative asset with institutional backing?

Modern crypto crash

Bitcoin has come a long way from being one of the riskiest assets in the world. It has slowly garnered a reputation as something that will keep increasing in value.

To understand this sell-off and why it hit so hard, we need to look at how the market was built over the last two years and examine the structures that drove the last rally and its inevitable collapse.

Firstly, let’s examine leverage. The crypto derivatives market is a paradise for aggressive traders, and the latest cycle drew hordes of them. When the digital currency eroded from its $80,000 to $90,000 range in early February, the markets saw almost $279 million in leveraged positions liquidated within a single day. Almost $170 million of that was concentrated in long positions.

Just a few days later, within a single hour, $80 million in liquidations were produced, and $48 million of it was Bitcoin alone.

While the data is not record-breaking or particularly alarming in isolation, it remains significant due to the feedback loops and self-fulfilling prophecies it creates.

Academic research specifically examining Bitcoin futures markets at BitMEX revealed that daily forced liquidations average approximately 3.5% of open interest for long positions, largely because many traders utilise effective leverage levels of 60x or more. In an environment like that, even a moderate price decline leads to those margin calls. Exchanges then dump collateral to cover those calls, and the prices dwindle further, liquidating more positions. This cascade is fast, mechanical, and transforms something that is otherwise manageable into a rout.

But we can’t blame everything on leverage. It was just an amplifier and not what started this domino effect. The foundational reasons for this crash were a structural shift in the behaviour of a new and yet consequential set of players. Namely, the ETF complex.

New buyers become sellers

Experts say that the US spot Bitcoin ETF launch was a watershed moment. It allowed retail and institutional investors to access the digital currency through a regulated, familiar vehicle without managing balances or private keys for the first time.

Within the first two trading days of 2026, $1.2 billion in net inflows were recorded on US ETFs. It is an extraordinary pace, which reassured investors that the historic run of 2024 and 2025 probably might not end anytime soon.

Then the rhythm broke. The shockwaves emerged with ETF flows flipping negative by January 6. Research by Binance reported that, in 2026, demand had turned into a net negative, with year-to-date flows of roughly minus 4,595 BTC. This meant that the funds, on balance, were being sold into the market rather than bought.

A separate analysis claimed US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in 2026, which was the longest sustained outflow streak since early 2025.

It’s different this time around because in previous cycles, after every halving, retail enthusiasm fades, and the tourist capital is usually invested in offshore derivatives or speculative altcoins. This is referred to as altseason.

Most traders who make big money during the sell-off re-divert that wealth into up-and-coming coins. But this season, there was no altseason rally. The cryptocurrency kept booming indefinitely. There was even talk that an altcoin season might not happen again.

ETFs have changed the equation. When investors redeem ETF shares, the fund must sell underlying altcoins to meet these demands. It is programmed that way and is non-discretionary. It happens in large blocks and hits a market which, despite its growth, has relatively thin spot liquidity compared to traditional assets.

The ETF paradox is visible. The institutionalisation of BTC was supposed to stabilise the asset and broaden the ownership base. Instead, it created a new system where retail fear can rapidly and efficiently transmit into largescale spot selling. This legitimisation was celebrated by bulls, yet that same mechanism has handed a button for self-annihilation to the market.

The macro context

And to top it all off, the macroeconomy couldn’t be more hostile to Bitcoin. The wars in Europe, Israel and possible geopolitical crises in Taiwan and Iran, along with the tariff wars, have killed the appetite of central banks around the world. Markets have been tightening and de-risking globally.

The same fears that cause volatility in traditional markets are more profound now. Gold has surged above $5,500 per ounce, serving as a safe haven for assets as it has for thousands of years. Meanwhile, the digital asset (which was supposed to be a storehouse of wealth and was dubbed the ‘digital gold’) has fallen roughly 20% year-todate as of early February. It is a development that is impossible to miss.

The whole idea of the blockchain asset was ‘gold but better’ because someone could steal your gold from your house, banks might collapse, and gold is harder to transport from one country to another. It also had all the good properties of gold in the sense that no one could take it from you. It was in a hidden, encrypted wallet that the government had no access to, and the prices always kept booming.

It was considered a reliable and safe asset, but the global crisis has proven that the digital currency might not be as reliable an asset as people thought it was, and is definitely not a dependable replacement for gold.

The policies that have been baked in place by governments around the world are not conducive either. Since COVID-19, near-zero rates, and quantitative easing, banks have made a coordinated retreat from their usual yet extraordinary monetary accommodation.

The US Federal Reserve drained $2.8 trillion from its balance sheet between the pandemic peak and late 2025, only taking a slight U-turn in December. The European Central Bank was no different and shed $3 trillion since mid-2022. Even the Bank of Japan (which was a perennial holdout historically) has embraced inflation and is shrinking its own balance sheets.

It’s not all doom and gloom. Some rate cuts are set to return in 2026. However, there has been a generational shift. Real yields are positive, and even cash offers dependable returns. The dollar is firm despite day-to-day volatility. Bitcoin, which had thrived in the era of free money, unprofitable growth companies, and speculative tech, is a natural casualty of this change in philosophy.

The cryptocurrency is correlated with the Nasdaq and other high-beta risk assets (assets with high volatility relative to the market). It is telling of what the asset has evolved into, which is a macro trading instrument.

It only rallies when there is abundant liquidity and a great appetite for risk, and is dumped the moment traders have cold feet.

The digital gold question

Now let’s get to the heart of the matter. In a world of uncertainty, war, fatigue, plague, and zero-sum games, gold seems like the most reliable asset to hold on to. Everyone wants it, and no culture would deny it.

The digital gold thesis is underpinned by two important claims, the first being that Bitcoin acts as a store of value that builds and retains purchasing power across full cycles despite its inherent volatility. And the second claim suggests that during a crisis, the cryptocurrency behaves like gold, and serves as an effective hedge against both monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty.

“Bitcoin is sensitive to liquidity. In phases when capital becomes cautious, BTC often behaves not like a protective shield, but like a real risk asset,” according to the views of analysts on the website of Aequifin, a Germany-based fintech platform for litigation funding.

There are no arguments about the first claim. The digital asset has proven its resilience across years, seeing highs and lows but coming back up every halving cycle. Previously, it had lost 70% to 80% of its value, yet it has soared to new heights every time. Long-term holders have been rewarded in a way that no other asset has rewarded its holders.

Research on post-halving dynamics has confirmed that speculative cycle and supply shock patterns are broadly intact.

It is when it comes to the second claim (the idea of the cryptocurrency as a go-to asset during a crisis) that things get murky.

Research across multiple methodologies, including VAR models, GARCH analysis, and multi-factor frameworks, has concluded that BTC cannot function as a safe haven akin to gold. Studies examining correlations between the digital currency, gold, oil, and equities indicate that Bitcoin is the second riskiest asset in the sample, and significantly more volatile than gold, making it more comparable to crude oil or leveraged growth stocks than to defensive instruments.

Furthermore, Quantile VAR spillover methods reveal that under normal and bullish conditions, BTC acts as a net transmitter of risk to other assets, while in times of crisis, it amplifies shocks rather than absorbing them, such as gold and treasuries.

The crash of 2026 exposes an uncomfortable reality. The conditions that ought to have been quite attractive, like geopolitical risk, currency uncertainty, and distrust of institutional finance, have not made it soar to new heights. Instead, there has been a 50% depreciation. Gold, however, has reached new heights. It’s not that Bitcoin didn’t rally; it crashed.

Nations that bet big

No one has bet bigger on the digital currency than El Salvador and the Central African Republic. Two nations, continents apart, that granted the blockchain asset full legal tender status. Both nations, as a consequence, have struggled considerably.

El Salvador decided to gamble in September 2021, presenting itself as a visionary. It sounded like a small, dollarised economy was going to leapfrog traditional financial infrastructure to reduce remittance costs and attract crypto- tourists, much like Dubai.

It was going to be a financial laboratory, but the experiment went awry. Research has found that BTC was only used for 1.9% of transactions in the first year. A lot of Salvadorans downloaded the government’s Chivo wallet to collect a one-time $30 incentive, but didn’t open it again.

There were many problems, including technical friction, price volatility, and patchy internet access; consequently, many ordinary citizens saw it as absolutely impractical. However, tourism got a boost, with a rise of 22% in 2024. The digital asset was one of the primary attractions for international visitors, but the macro picture was collapsing. The IMF flagged the legal tender arrangement, citing risks to financial stability, consumer risk, and fiscal integrity.

“El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has failed. Public distrust, low adoption, technological problems, and volatility are leading to a rollback of the legal tender policy in 2025,” tweeted Ricardo V. Lago, an independent commentator on Latin American economics, on X in November 2025.

In early 2025, El Salvador sought a $1.4 billion loan from the IMF. One of the conditions laid down by the IMF for loan eligibility was the demotion of Bitcoin and the revocation of its legal tender status. El Salvador received the loan and revoked the legal tender status of the crypto asset. Now, merchants aren’t required to accept the digital currency. The government still has its digital currency holdings, but the experiment has failed. El Salvador is now just another crypto-friendly jurisdiction, not a Bitcoin economy.

The Central African Republic had an even worse crypto journey. CAR adopted the digital asset as legal tender in April 2022, despite having a population where only 11%-14% have internet access.

The government launched a partially Bitcoin-backed national cryptocurrency called Sango Coin, and promised foreign investors citizenship, land rights, and access to natural resources in exchange for token purchases. However, the country’s constitutional court pushed back against selling citizenship via crypto, calling it unconstitutional.

Sango Coin made less than €2 million, which is far short of its target, and collapsed. Researchers who investigated the experiment described the programme as opaque, poorly designed, and constructed for the benefit of speculators and politically connected intermediaries rather than ordinary CAR citizens.

Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GI-TOC) stated in its report that the opaque nature of the schemes benefited a small circle of insiders and transnational criminal organisations looking for ways to launder money.

“The CAR regime is effectively trading away the country’s sovereignty at the expense of the wider population,” states the report from the Switzerland-based network of some 600 experts tracking international organised crime.

Both these countries were brave, considering that their economies are on the weaker end of the spectrum. Their experiment might have paid dividends if they had sold the assets during historic highs, but these are nations, and not speculating investors or ‘crypto bros’.

For El Salvador, Bitcoin’s volatility created fiscal and reputational risks that brought about a mild U-turn in policy. In CAR, it added more tension and instability to an already fragile economy.

Liquidity shock or structural red flag?

This crash can be seen in two ways, with the simple reading being that it represents the usual cyclical fluctuations of a speculative asset. Bitcoin has encountered this situation many times before, such as the 2018 crash, where prices fell below 80% and caused significant panic, as well as the 2022 crash, which was almost as severe. The pattern remains consistent every time.

“BTC’s well-known four-year cycle may no longer define its long-term behaviour,” Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, stated in a Fox Business interview in December 2025. Yet, she acknowledged past cycles featured ‘sharp crashes, often 75% to 90%’, now steadied by institutions.

There is euphoria followed by leverage, a macro or idiosyncratic shock, a cascade of forced selling, capitulation, and an eventual recovery to new heights. From this perspective, the recent violent crash is considered routine, and long-term holders who are habituated to these cycles will likely continue to hold while awaiting new horizons.

The second way to look at it is through the structural lens. What has changed since 2018 and 2022?

The major change is that there are new players in the market. First, ETFs now represent a major share of institutional BTC exposure. Additionally, derivative markets are deeper and more interconnected, and leverage in the system is larger in absolute dollar terms, even if the percentage of open interest remains similar.

The digital asset’s price is now heavily conditioned by the same liquidity plumbing that governs equity markets, including ETF flows, repo conditions, and prime brokerage leverage.

It is no longer bound to slow-moving fundamentals like on-chain adoption or long-term holder accumulation. If you look at it like that, the decentralised financial asset is more like a leveraged Nasdaq constituent than a traditional monetary asset that is separate from the financial system. This may not be permanent. Markets can deepen, ownership will broaden, and volatility could decline, which may shift all these correlations in the future. But, as of now, empirically, we understand that BTC isn’t gold.

So the practical takeaway for investors is that the cryptocurrency isn’t a safe haven or a hedge, but a high-beta, liquidity-sensitive position. It’s more like a tech asset than a gold bar.

It still might boom and reach new all-time highs, but it isn’t an asset that’s stable enough to bet on when the world around you is burning down.

For governments and policymakers, the digital currency narrative might be appealing, but lessons from CAR and El Salvador are humbling. The volatility of BTC is treated as a feature of its immaturity, but it is not dependable enough for long-term public policy. Small economies with very limited fiscal space to operate cannot absorb a 50% drawdown. When the banks come knocking, arithmetic prevails over ideology.

It is not to say the digital currency isn’t appealing. It still is, just as it was 10 years ago. There are several factors that remain remarkable, including its supply constraint, an ongoing adoption curve, and a consistent history of full cycles.

But the 2026 crash has an important lesson to teach us. Cryptocurrency as an asset class has not matured like gold. We are, without a doubt, in an early and volatile chapter of the Bitcoin story.

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Recently, Ray Dalio, who is the world’s largest hedge fund manager said that if bitcoin becomes too successful, then governments will kill it.

“If it’s successful, governments don’t want to have it. At the end of the day, if it is really successful, they will kill it and they have ways of killing it,” he said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference.

Earlier this month, Bitcoin became a legal tender in El Salvador as the country recently bought its first 400 bitcoins in two tranches of 200. The 400 bitcoins were trading at around $21 million.

On September 6, 2021, President Nayib Bukele tweeted, “Tomorrow, for the first time in history, all the eyes of the world will be on El Salvador. Bitcoin did this.”

Bukele pushed ahead with his plans to make bitcoin a legal tender despite criticism from his own citizens and warning from international experts with regard to the volatile nature of the currency. He has offered $30 for each citizen who adopts the currency.

El Salvador’s parliament approved a law to allow the crypto money to be accepted as tender for all goods and services, along with the US dollar.

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President Nayib Bukele tweeted, “Tomorrow, for the first time in history, all the eyes of the world will be on El Salvador. Bitcoin did this.”

Bukele pushed ahead with his plans to make bitcoin a legal tender despite criticism from his own citizens and warning from international experts with regard to the volatile nature of the currency. He has offered $30 for each citizen who adopts the currency.

Bukele announced in June the country’s plan to make bitcoin a legal tender in the country. Not only that, but Bukele also attached incentives for those dealing in bitcoin in the country, contrary to crypto restrictions in other parts of the world. Back then, he said that bitcoin has a market cap of $680 billion dollars and if even 1 percent of it is invested in El Salvador, that would increase its GDP by 25 percent.

El Salvador’s parliament approved a law to allow the crypto money to be accepted as tender for all goods and services, along with the US dollar.

The government has also begun installing 200 ATMs in the country to help convert the cryptocurrency into US dollars and withdraw it in cash. In June, it was also reported that US-based Athena Bitcoin announced its plan to install nearly 1500 bitcoin ATMs in El Salvador.

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It was confirmed that Ether has surpassed bitcoin in daily active address by Santiment, a crypto analytics company. This indicates that a growing number of investors are drifting towards Ether.

One possible reason for this could be China’s crackdown on bitcoin mining in the country amid growing environmental concerns.

Recently, Brazil’s federal police arrested Bitcoin Banco Group president Cláudio Oliveira on the charges of embezzlement. It is alleged that the self-proclaimed ‘King of Bitcoin’ embezzled $300 million through a cryptocurrency scheme.

“Police investigations also revealed that the investigated person also committed, in the past, crimes of the same nature in the United States and possibly in other European countries. The investigative work in the field also made it possible to identify people suspected of concurring in the commission of the crimes under investigation,” Brazilian Police said in a press release.

Central American country El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele recently announced the country’s plan to make bitcoin a legal tender in the country. Not only that, Bukele has now attached incentives for those dealing in bitcoin in the country, contrary to crypto restrictions in other parts of the world. He said that bitcoin has a market cap of $680 billion dollars and if even 1 percent of it is invested in El Salvador, that would increase its GDP by 25 percent.

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Currently, Athena Bitcoin operates only 2 ATMs in El Salvador. While the first one is located at El Zonte beach, the second one is at El Tunco. It also plans to add to its workforce and open an office to carry out operations in El Salvador.

Athena’s director for Latin America, Matias Goldenhörn told the media, “Initially we are going to bring dozens of machines, (we’ll) test what the business model is like in El Salvador, which will probably be different than in the United States.”

El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele recently announced the country’s plan to make bitcoin a legal tender in the country. Not only that, Bukele has now attached incentives for those dealing in bitcoin in the country, contrary to crypto restrictions in other parts of the world. He said that bitcoin has a market cap of $680 billion dollars and if even 1 percent of it is invested in El Salvador, that would increase its GDP by 25 percent.

He tweeted, “No capital gains tax on bitcoin since it will be a legal tender. Immediate permanent residence for crypto entrepreneurs. We hope that this decision (to make Bitcoin as legal tender) will be just the beginning in providing a space where some of the leading innovators can reimagine the future of finance, potentially helping billions around the world.”

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February 8, 2016: Grupo Aval is Colombia and Central America’s largest financial conglomerate; it operates in 12 countries, serving more than 13 million banking customers and 11 million pension and severance fund affiliates. It consolidates more than $68 billion in assets, with over $128 billion in assets under management. Grupo Aval posted a net income of $592 million in the last 12 months (LTM) ended on September 2015. Furthermore, the company has posted strong growth and profitability metrics, as evidenced by a compound annual growth rate of more than 20%[1] and a solid return on average equity currently standing at 13.5% (LTM).

Its current position within the markets it operates is the result of both the vision of Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Angulo, founder, Chairman of the Board and majority shareholder of the group, and the leadership skills and tenacity of Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutiérrez, CEO and President of Grupo Aval, who has led Aval into the international arena and who now leads the innovation strategy for the group, a key area of future success as traditional banking is being redefined and as the needs of the clients have to be met in diverse ways.

Grupo Aval consolidates four commercial banks in Colombia (Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular and Banco AV Villas); one bank in Central America: Banco de America Central (BAC) Credomatic with presence in Panama, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Honduras; the largest private pension and severance fund manager (Porvenir); and the largest merchant bank (Corficolombiana), both in Colombia.

Grupo Aval operates through a multi-brand banking model that allows maximum penetration and profitability. Banco de Bogotá is a full-service bank with nationwide coverage and focuses on commercial lending; Banco de Occidente focuses on mid-market and affluent segments and has a leading presence in the southwest region of Colombia and in niche products, such as auto loans and leasing.

Banco Popular is the market leader in payroll loans and is the leading provider of financial solutions to government entities across Colombia; and finally, Banco AV Villas is a consumer-focused bank and targets mid-income segments of the population.

As of September 2015, Grupo Aval´s banks in Colombia held a 30% market share of loans and a 34% market share of net income and served more than 10 million banking clients through its 1,397 branches and 3,775 ATMs.

Grupo Aval’s merchant bank Corficolombiana holds investments in various sectors, such as energy and gas, infrastructure, agro-industrial and hospitality, among others. The company focuses mainly on two areas: infrastructure projects and energy. In infrastructure, Corficolombiana stands out as the largest concessionaire in the country, while in energy, it consolidates the largest gas pipeline in Colombia.

Grupo Aval´s Private Pension Fund Manager, Porvenir, is the largest private pension and severance fund manager in Colombia and holds close to 50% of market share in each category. Porvenir has 7.1 million affiliates in the mandatory pension fund, 3.8 million affiliates in the severance fund and 169 thousand affiliates in the voluntary pension fund.

Grupo Aval will continue to benefit from its scale and leadership position in Colombia as growth expectations in the country are amongst the strongest in the region despite the economic difficulties resulting from the drastic drop in oil prices and its implications on government revenues.

One of the main drivers of marginal GDP growth in the coming years in Colombia is the 4^th generation concession program. This program includes the construction of more than 3,000 km of new roads and will demand at least $15 billion of capital investments. The program is expected to contribute with more than 100 pbs of GDP each year in the coming years and will increase the competitiveness of the country as it will decrease the transportation in a material form.

Grupo Aval will take part in the 4^th generation concession program in two ways. On the one hand, it expects to participate, with its natural market share and through its four banks, providing funds to the constructors who were granted the concessions. On the other hand, it will participate as an equity investor through Corficolombiana, which has already been granted three concessions, which involve the construction of 366 kilometres of roads and will require demand CAPEX of approximately $2 billion.

Aside from a positive mid-term GDP scenario, banking penetration will continue to favour financial institutions in Colombia. Measured as total loans to nominal gross domestic product (GDP), banking penetration stands below 50% suggesting that loan growth can continue to outpace that of the economy. Furthermore, the country’s middle-income class is expected to continue to expand and unemployment is expected to improve in the mid-term, both positive for the financial industry.

On top of the Colombian story, new foreign winds are boosting the size and profitability of Grupo Aval thanks to a decision taken five years ago to diversify risks and sources of revenue. Back in 2010, Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutiérrez decided to start the internationalisation process of Grupo Aval with the acquisition of BAC Credomatic, the leading and most profitable regional banking group in Central America with operations in six countries.

Central America, as a region, presented vast opportunities because of its size, low banking penetration and high returns. Having close ties to the United States, the region’s economy is expected to grow more than Colombia both in 2015 and 2016. Furthermore, being a net importer of oil the region has benefited from the decline in oil prices that affected Colombia negatively. From a macroeconomic standpoint the diversification option taken by Aval has proven to be successful.

Aside from the culture similarities, BAC Credomatic turned out to be the perfect fit for Grupo Aval. Led with solid corporate governance standards and similar risk and reporting models, BAC started to generate synergies almost immediately after the acquisition. Between 2010 and 2014, Grupo Aval was able to double the size of the bank in Central America and double its net income. It now serves more than 3 million clients in those six countries (on top of the 10 million it serves in Colombia), through 356 full-service branches and 1,736 ATMs.

Cross synergies include best in class credit card operations imported to Colombia and solid corporate banking practices exported to Central America. With room for further improvement, returns should remain strong over the coming years.

The internationalisation process of Grupo Aval has surpassed the M&A field. In 2012, Grupo Aval entered the debt capital markets when it issued two Reg S/144A senior bonds, and in 2014 it entered the equity capital markets when it issued fully registered ADRs in the NYSE.

The last five years have been transformational for this group and new projects are already on their way. Materialisation of further synergies among its Colombian and Central American subsidiaries and investments on innovation are on top of Mr. Sarmiento´s to-do list. Aside from this, the group will remain true to its core principles and continue to look for growth opportunities in close-by markets where it can achieve a dominant position with sizable market share.

To be noted

[1] Compound annual growth rate for the last 5 years

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