The core problem is a combination of rising energy costs and shaky consumer confidence. Oil prices have surged to an average of $103 per barrel, while natural gas, which powers homes and factories across Europe, is trading at €55 per megawatt-hour. These are not abstract numbers. When energy gets expensive, it costs more to produce goods, transport them, and heat homes. Businesses hold back on investment. Families spend less. That chain reaction is precisely what Italy is experiencing right now.

Consumer price inflation, the rate at which everyday prices rise, is expected to hit 2.6% this year as a direct result of these commodity spikes. To put that in plain terms, goods and services that cost €100 last year will cost around €102.60 this year. The bank projects inflation will ease below 2% by 2027 and 2028, provided that energy prices gradually fall as futures markets currently suggest.

Geopolitical instability, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, adds another layer of risk. In a worst-case scenario where hostilities drag on, Italy’s 2026 growth could shrink by a further 0.5 percentage points, and 2027 could lose a full percentage point off its forecast, a significant blow to an already fragile recovery.

There are some bright spots. The labour market remains relatively stable, wages are growing, and the bank expects a slow recovery to begin in early 2027 once inflationary pressure eases. However, Italian manufacturers face stiffening competition from cheaper Chinese goods, which limits their ability to grow.

The Banca d’Italia is urging policymakers to pursue productivity reforms and keep a close watch on global risks before conditions worsen further.

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Speaking at the 2026 Monetary Policy Forum in Abuja, Olayemi Cardoso further revealed that the reforms under the policy have given rise to positive economic outcomes. He commented, “Gross external reserves increased from USD 38.34 billion in February 2025 to USD 50.12 billion in February 2026, representing a 30.73% year‑on‑year increase, the highest level recorded in 13 years. Similarly, Net External Reserves have surged from USD 3.99 billion at the end of 2023 to USD 34.80 billion at the end of 2025, representing a 772.2% increase and higher than total gross reserves in 2023.”

“This improvement was reinforced by enhanced reserve‑management practices, integration of London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)‑certified gold into the national reserves, restructuring of the external asset management framework, and the initiation of a second global custodian to improve risk diversification. When our administration assumed office in September 2023, the macroeconomic environment was marked by pronounced distortions and significant imbalances, with the economy facing heightened vulnerability and elevated stability risks,” the senior official added.

Noting that headline inflation rose to 29.9% in January 2024, reflecting sustained food price pressures, exchange‑rate pass‑through, and structural supply constraints, Cardoso continued, “Excessive monetary financing had compromised policy integrity; Ways and Means advances had climbed to 26.95 trillion naira by May 2023, far beyond statutory thresholds, weakening the monetary‑fiscal interface and eroding credibility. The foreign exchange market was severely impaired, with over USD 7.0 billion in verified FX backlogs, constraining private‑sector operations and damaging external confidence.”

“Parallel market premium widened sharply to over 60%, and the exchange-rate architecture became increasingly fragmented. External reserves were under severe pressure, with net foreign reserves dropping to as low as USD 3.99 billion at the end of 2023, while Nigeria’s balance of payments position oscillated between deficits and instability. These conditions collectively undermined the transmission of monetary policy, weakened investor sentiment, and strained the credibility of the Central Bank at home and abroad,” he remarked.

The senior official also added that with a clear understanding of the challenges, the CBN has moved on a proactive basis to implement far‑reaching, bold but necessary reforms aimed at restoring credibility, normalising policy conduct, rebuilding confidence, and stabilising the macroeconomic environment.

“The first critical step was restoring monetary–fiscal discipline. Ways and Means financing was reined-in decisively, declining from 26.95 trillion naira to 3.51 trillion naira in December 2024 and further to 2.84 trillion naira by January 2026, marking one of the sharpest fiscal consolidations in recent history,” Cardoso added, informing the media that his institution’s policy actions restored compliance with the law and strengthened central bank independence. The moves also signalled the bank’s commitment to orthodoxy and transparency to markets, with a clear message that the era of fiscal dominance had ended.

“We complemented these actions with a firm but data-driven tightening cycle. Throughout 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained a restrictive stance to rein in inflation expectations by raising the policy rate cumulatively by 875 basis points from 18.75% in January 2024 to 27.50% in November 2024. While the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was kept at elevated levels for most of the year, improved inflation dynamics enabled the first policy rate cut in five years. A modest easing was carefully calibrated, with the policy rate reduced from 27.5 per cent to 27.0 per cent in September 2025, followed by a further cut to 26.5 per cent in February 2026,” he concluded.

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In the first quarter, the total value of goods moving through China’s nationwide logistics system reached 91 trillion yuan (USD 12.51 trillion), representing a 5.7% year-over-year increase and a growth rate that was 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the first two months.

The data demonstrated that the macroeconomy of China maintained its trajectory of modest recovery. According to the CFLP, the demand structure kept getting better, logistics operations started steadily and favourably, and the upstream and downstream supply chain segments further solidified their recovery. The primary driver of the growth in logistics demand, industrial product logistics volume, which made up more than 80% of the total social logistics volume, increased by 51.9% annually.

“Logistics serves as a leading indicator for the macroeconomy, particularly for the real economy. The accelerated growth pace reflects the sustained recovery of the domestic economy and heightened economic vitality. This positive trend will significantly boost market confidence and is expected to have ripple effects across both the real economy and capital markets,” Hu Qimu, a deputy secretary-general of the Digital-Real Economies Integration Forum 50, said, as reported by the Global Times.

A rising logistics prosperity index also demonstrates how China’s industries are leveraging the strength of the domestic market to create robust supply chains in the face of trade frictions and external uncertainties.

According to Hu, seamless domestic circulation will support resilience and economic growth even more. High-tech manufacturing and emerging energy-related industries were the primary drivers of the expansion in industrial product logistics.

Liu Yuhang, director of the China Logistics Information Centre, stated that the country’s industrial structure was optimised as evidenced by the sharp increase in the demand for logistics products like intelligent manufacturing equipment, new-energy vehicles, and photovoltaic devices.

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