Rates have not changed for the third time since the African country’s apex bank signed an USD 8 billion financial support agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on March 6, when it hiked rates by 600 basis points (bps).

One analyst predicted a 100 basis point drop in rates, while the other fifteen analysts surveyed by Reuters recently predicted that rates would stay unchanged.

“With the gradual easing of previous shocks, inflationary pressures continued to subside, as annual headline and core inflation edged downward for the fifth consecutive month,” the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) wrote in a statement accompanying the decision.

The conflict in Gaza, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the coronavirus have all taken a toll on Egypt’s already fragile economy. For the first time since January 2022, the real interest rate increased as inflation fell to 25.7% in July 2024.

After reaching an all-time high of 38% in September, inflation started to decline gradually. In the coming days, August inflation data is expected.

“Domestically, real GDP growth softened to 2.2% in Q1 2024 compared to 2.3% in Q4 2023. The softening is driven by declining public contribution to economic activity due to the impact of Red Sea maritime trade disruption on the service sector,” the MPC said further.

According to the MPC, inflation would sharply drop in the first quarter of 2025 and economic growth would progressively rebound in the fiscal year that started on July 1.

“The gradual unwinding of food inflation along with the improvement of inflation expectations suggest that inflation is currently on a downward trajectory,” it said.

Talking about Egypt’s fight against inflation, the phenomenon is forecast to have declined for a sixth month in August 2024, helped by a favourable base effect. However, some analysts say it is likely to have increased month on month after a series of government-led price hikes.

One of the conditions of the financial support pact signed between Egypt and the IMF was to make the African nation increase domestic prices. The government as a result has raised the cost of many subsidised products to battle a budget deficit that hit 505 billion Egyptian pounds (USD 10.3 billion) in the fiscal year that ended on June 30.

According to the forecasts of 19 analysts, annual urban consumer inflation slowed to a median of 25.1% in August from 25.7% in July.

“We expect urban inflation to decelerate to 24.9% y-o-y for August on a favourable base effect. However, we anticipate a 1.0% m-o-m increase on the recent energy and transportation cost hikes at the beginning of August,” said Heba Mounir of HC Securities, while interacting with Reuters.

Naeem Holding, which forecast annual headline inflation of 24.8%, predicted an increase of 1.24% month on month from July. This was due to higher summer produce prices, fuel hikes of 10-15% near the end of July, a 25-33% jump in metro tickets at the beginning of August and a 21-31% increase in electricity tariffs.

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It also highlighted how longer approval process under RERA is likely to delay launches and have an impact on growth of construction and ancillary activities. It is also relevant to note that there may not be another rate cut during the remainder of the year as the RBI will continue to look at inflation headwinds. This stance of the MPC will also be important for global investors as the current stable interest rate regime in India will allow for better investor returns in India for global investors. This should keep investors reasonably attracted towards India.

There is already enough surplus liquidity in the system and the policy change may not result in a greater impact on real estate sentiment. However, it must be remembered that buyer sentiment has been impacted by a number of variables, including overall lack of affordability in the larger cities and the slowdown in IT/ITeS-driven employment. RERA has also induced a go-slow in fresh launches, which means that there will be less fresh supply on the market. Consequently, prices are unlikely to reduce further – and more than interest rates, it is property prices which affect buying decisions. Nevertheless, this monetary policy announcement sends out positive signals to global investors, who are already showing renewed interest in Indian residential real estate on account of the transparency reboot brought on by RERA and GST deployment.

Anuj Puri is Chairman at Anarock Property Consultants

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April 18, 2014 : Fed’s March Minutes

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes released on April 9, 2014, reported that policymakers decided to keep the benchmark interest rate to near zero levels, until inflation moves higher. The board of governors unanimously agreed to set a threshold that would increase interest rates, once the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%, provided that figure is followed by a 2.5% inflation rate.

Currently, unemployment rate is at 6.7%, not far from the threshold set, though inflation rate remains well below 2.5%. The Fed’s decision to set a rate-increase threshold, left markets feeling that interest rates will remain low for some time to come, even after winding down the bond-buying programme.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index

On Thursday, April 10, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the number of people filing for unemployment assistance in the week ending April 5, declined by 32,000 to 300,000, which is the lowest level since May, 2007. Previous week’s claims were revised up to 332,000. Economists had anticipated initial jobless claims to fell to 320,000. The four-week average of jobless claims declined to 316,250 from 321,000 the week before, the lowest since late September 2013.

Continuing jobless claims also dropped to 2.77 million, the lowest since January 2008. These figures reflect the fewest number of American citizens filing for unemployment benefit since before the last recession, indicating a progress in the labour market.

A day after, official data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index, which measures the change in selling prices, increased by 0.5% in March, following a 0.1% decline in February. The median estimate was calling for a 0.1% rise. Core producer price inflation, excluding energy, trade and food, rose 0.6% in March, against the forecasts anticipating a 0.2% increase, following a 0.2% fall the previous month.

BoE’s March minutes

On Thursday,10, the Bank of England said that is keeping the benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, where it has been since March 2009, as officials try to measure the amount of spare capacity in the  economy. The specific decision was broadly anticipated among economists. The BoE also stated that is maintaining the asset purchase programme at £375 billion.

The meeting took place amid signs that the country’s economic recovery is strengthening, following data published earlier on the week, showing that industrial production rose beyond economists’ expectations in February. The Monetary Policy Committee stated that it will not contemplate increasing borrowing costs at least until the unemployment rate drops to 7% – currently at 7.2%. It is anticipated that the BoE will rise its interest rate by 25 basis points by May 2015.

Greece back to markets

Meanwhile in the euro zone, Greece made a successful return to financial markets on Thursday, April 10, raising €3 billion in its first bond auction since 2010, when the country entered the bailout programme. Greece auctioned €3 billion of five-year benchmark bonds at a yield of 4.95%, with the orders exceeding €20 billion. Traders looked optimistically to Greece’s return to bond markets, as a further sign that euro zone’s economic recovery is gaining pace.

U.S. Dollar

Despite the upbeat official data on initial jobless claims on Thursday, 10, the numbers did little to boost the dollar. Traders continued to avoid the currency, following the Fed’s minutes indicating that an interest rate rise is unlikely to occur for some time. While on Friday, the greenback gained strength against other major currencies, as the release of better-than-expected inflation data supported demand for the currency. The U.S. dollar rose against the euro, with EUR/USD declining 0.15% to 1.3867.

Euro and Sterling

On Thursday, the euro found support from Greece’s successful return to bond markets, ending a four-year exile from them. During the U.S. trading session, the EUR/USD was up 0.27% at 1.3893. Elsewhere, EUR/USD hit 1.3875, the highest since March 24 and was last trading at 1.3869.

Following the release of BoE minutes to left the interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, the sterling lowered against the dollar on Thursday, with GBP/USD down 0.02% at 1.6790. The cable remained also slightly lower against the euro, with EUR/GBP gaining 0.21% to 0.8266. On Friday, the sterling followed the same course against the dollar, with GBP/USD dropping 0.34% to 1.6727.

Yen

The greenback was down against the yen on Thursday, 10, with USD/JPY declining 0.55% at 101.43. On Friday, however, the dollar traded higher against the yen, after the release of the Bank of Japan’s March minutes saying that BoJ will continue to seek quantitative and qualitative easing measures, thus fuelling concerns for implementation of additional stimulus measures in the near future.  USD/JPY rose to 101.86 during Asian trade.

AUD/CAD/NZD

On Thursday, the dollar was mixed against its counterparts in Australia, Canada and New Zealand. AUD/USD traded up 0.37% at 0.9425, USD/CAD gained 0.39% at 1.0923, and NZD/USD fell 0.20% at 0.8697. The Aussie found support by official data released earlier reporting that the number of individuals employed in Australia rose by 18,100 in March, well above the forecasts for a 5,000 increase. The country’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% in March, from 6.1% in February.

On Friday, the U.S. dollar traded higher against all its cousins, with AUD/USD sliding 0.27% to 0.9389, NZD/USD falling 0.15% to 0.8667 and USD/CAD up 0.39% to 1.0977.

The U.S. Dollar Index tracking the performance of the dollar versus six other majors, dropped by 0.20% at 79.44 on Thursday, while gained 0.15% to 79.60 on Friday.

Gold

Gold prices gained more than 1% on Thursday, after the release of Fed’s minutes. Gold futures for June delivery rose 1.13% to $1.320.60 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since March 24, 2014. The precious metal remained supported on Friday, trading near three-week highs with gold futures for June delivery trading at $1,322.10 a troy ounce, up 0.12%.

Source: TeleTrade

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