While better-than-expected exports, along with the Xi Jinping administration’s domestic fuel-pricing controls, ‌helped Beijing weather the energy shock, higher input costs threaten to squeeze already weak factory margins, apart from further dampening consumer spending if the Middle East conflict drags on.

As per the data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), factory output grew 4.1% from a year earlier (slowest growth since July 2023), compared with a 5.7% rise in March.

“The strong performance of the exporters helped to mitigate the weaknesses in domestic demand, but not enough to fully offset it,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, while interacting with Reuters.

Exports gathered pace in April as factories raced to meet a wave of orders from AI-related industries, while other buyers sought to stockpile components amid fears of the Iran war potentially pushing global input costs even higher.

Zhang didn’t expect ⁠the Xi Jinping administration to change its policy stance on just one month of weak data, stating that Beijing would likely reassess its policy stance in July when the Q2 GDP data comes out.

“Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, rose just 0.2% in April, cooling sharply from 1.7% in March and sliding to their weakest gain since December 2022. The figures were also well below forecasts centred on a 2% increase. The fragility of household consumption was underscored in April domestic car sales, which dropped 21.6% in April from a year earlier for their seventh straight month of decline, even as automakers ramped up efforts to expand in overseas markets to offset weakness at home,” reuters reported further.

“Retail sales growth in the first four months of 2026 points to still-weak household demand, with consumers concentrating spending on selective discretionary and upgrade categories rather than broad-based consumption,” said Yuhan Zhang, principal economist at the Conference Board’s China Center.

Zhang further added that the split highlights a two-speed recovery: steady spending on small lifestyle and tech upgrades, but weak appetite for big-ticket, credit-driven purchases tied to housing and income.

While the jobless rate reportedly nudged down to 5.2% in April from 5.4% in March, fixed-asset investment (FAI) contracted 1.6% in the first four months of 2026, compared with a 1.7% rise in the January-March period and a ‌1.6% expansion ⁠forecast. Domestic crude steel output also echoed the weak investment data, falling 2.8% from a year earlier.

“We believe weaker credit demand and heavy rainfall in southern China may have contributed to the April FAI decline compared with the first quarter,” said Lisheng Wang, economist at Goldman Sachs in a note, while cautioning that the occasional NBS “statistical correction” of previously reported data may have amplified the volatility.

As the Iran war and the stalemate at the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt the global supply chains, the Chinese leadership have already pledged to strengthen the country’s energy security, accelerate technological self-sufficiency and seek greater control of supply chains, while dealing with external shocks.

The world’s second-largest economy expanded 5.0% in the first three months of 2026, just touching the Beijing’s full-year target range of 4.5% to 5.0%. However, as per analysts, the recovery is running on uneven ground, with industrial output continuing to outstrip domestic demand.

“While a protracted downturn in the property market remains a drag on growth, the Middle East conflict has exposed the economy to external risks at a time of fragile consumption at home. China’s property investment contraction widened in April year-on-year, ⁠but new home prices fell at their slowest monthly pace in a year, offering some signs of stabilisation as local governments deploy measures to boost sales and shore up sentiment,” Reuters noted.

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He Hui, deputy head of the China Logistics Information Center, said: “The increase pointed to relatively strong logistics activity and a positive outlook for the industry.”

Xinhua reported that “the sub-index for new orders expanded to 54.5% from 52.9% in April, while that for inventory turnover came in at 52%, up from 51.4% in April.”

Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics of China observed that the country’s manufacturing sector in May grew at exponentially in eight months as the purchasing managers’ index rose 51.9%.

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The need to achieve fiscal convergence and consolidation in Nigeria cannot be overemphasised. This is especially important considering that the economy recently slipped into recession, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

One notable factor for this is the high level of fiscal indiscipline at the subnational level, which mainly derives from problematic incentives generated by unconditional fiscal transfers from the federal government. Therefore, to incentivise improved fiscal performance at the subnational government level, reforms in compliance with fiscal rules, data openness, as well as the introduction of performance-based grants are required. National anti-corruption agencies (ACAs) should also be used to signal threats of punishment for politicians and top bureaucrats in poor-performing states.

One of the key reasons for poor financial management at the subnational level is the perception of soft budget constraints created by unconditional statutory monthly fiscal transfers from the federal government. Specifically, subnational governments receive nearly half (47.32 per cent) of Nigeria’s total consolidated revenue. With the exception of Lagos, all other states are reliant on transfers. As such, there is little or no incentive for state governments to manage their internally-generated revenue by either stepping up tax collection efforts, or broadening their tax base. The scope for political corruption is therefore remarkably high. The recent diversion of federal bailout funds meant for unpaid workers’ salaries by state governments for undisclosed purposes is a case in point.

Although most states in Nigeria adopted the 2007 Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) to institutionalise fiscal prudence, recent events show that sufficient progress has not been made. The ongoing fiscal sustainability crisis in nearly all subnational governments – after a decade-long oil price boom – is clear evidence of fiscal indiscipline and large-scale corruption. Other critical issues such as the lack of accountability in fund utilisation and the non-availability of public finance data for citizenship engagement still remain unresolved. This is rather unsurprising, considering that Nigeria has a track record of poor political accountability and governance, as highlighted in the 2015 Ibrahim Index of African Governance.

Theoretically, decentralised fiscal spending in countries like Nigeria ought to improve the effective and efficient delivery of public services, since, as noted by renowned Professors Ferris and Graddy, lower-level governments are more knowledgeable about the costs, preferences, and the productive capacity of economic agents in their jurisdiction.

In practice, however, delegating responsibilities to states in a federal system creates principal-agent issues, since both levels of government serve different constituents, and therefore have divergent policy objectives. In view of this, a principal-agent problem under adverse selection exists in Nigeria’s fiscal relations since the federal government cannot directly verify the economic (and social) fundamentals of states as well as the outcome of their respective policies. Therefore, while fiscal transfers may be well intentioned, their welfare effects may not be optimal, in countries like Nigeria where strong incentive mechanisms are not in place to resolve agency issues at the subnational level.

The federal government has a critical role to play in improving fiscal governance at the subnational level in Nigeria, given its wider macro-economic implications. The current fiscal crisis in Nigeria is, therefore, a unique opportunity for the federal government to harden the budget constraint of subnational governments.

As a first step, future fiscal transfers, particularly financial bailouts, should be conditioned on compliance with specified fiscal rules (i.e. debt-sustainability ratio, infrastructure prioritisation), as well as the publication of subnational public finance data. Specifically, while the former is expected to enhance fiscal convergence and consolidation in Nigeria, the latter – data openness – would be key to improving the ability of citizens to hold political office-holders and bureaucrats at the subnational government level accountable.

Beyond fiscal rules and an open-data policy, the federal government can incentivise improved fiscal performance and accountability by providing performance-based matching grants to states. However, grant disbursements should be based on agreed performance metrics that are both measurable and verifiable by an independent party. Furthermore, another policy option is to dramatically increase the threat of punishment for non-compliance with fiscal rules. ACAs such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) can be used to curb fiscal indiscipline (and corruption) at the subnational government level. An important caveat to note, however, is that this largely depends on the ability of ACAs to follow due process and withstand political pressures.

Three key policy recommendations are proposed. First, future fiscal transfers should be conditioned on fiscal rules as well as the provision of actual revenue and expenditure data. This will significantly reduce the extent of agency issues faced in federal-state fiscal relations. Second, an incentive structure, in the form of ‘performance grants,’ should be instituted to incentivise and reward fiscal performance. ACAs could be used to signal punishment in states, and consequently reduce the scale of political patronage and corruption. By minimising problems of asymmetric information and moral hazard in federal-state fiscal relations, it is anticipated that these measures can help improve public service delivery in Nigeria.

This article originally appeared in AfricaatLSE blogs 

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Beijing, July 14, 2014: Consumer price rise eased a tad in June in China compared to May, official data released on July 9 said, even as an independent survey of its manufacturing sector – a gauge of the economy’s health – showed factory output rising for the first time since January and stocks of finished goods declining at the strongest rate since September 2011.

Data from China’s data office, the National Bureau of Statistics, said the price index had gone up 2.3 percent in June from a year-ago period, while it was down by 0.1 percent month-on-month. In fact, economists felt the drop, as compared to May, would allow policymakers more leeway to introduce measures in a bid to propel economic growth.

“Inflation isn’t really going anywhere,” The Wall Street Journal quoted HSBC analyst John Chua as saying. “This probably gives Beijing more policy flexibility. They don’t worry about the economy running at full capacity,” Chua said.

The annualised 2.3 percent spike in consumer price index – a measure of inflationary trends – was in line of what was expected. It was a notch below the increase of 2.4 percent predicted by a panel of 21 analysts polled by Wall Street Journal. A similar Reuters’ poll also forecast an increase of 2.4 percent after a 2.5 percent rise in May.

The increase, however, was considerably lower than the annual target of 3.5 percent set by the government.

Bill Adams, economist at PNC Financial Services Group, found the inflation figures within predictions and auguring well for consumers. “Low inflation is good news for Chinese consumption growth, since it preserves the purchasing value of consumers’ disposable income,” he told CNBC.

China’s first quarter growth this year plummeted 7.4 percent compared to the January 1-March 31 period in 2013, the feeblest pace since 2012. Alongside, its manufacturing sector also notched its worst performance in April since last August.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg in May forecast the growth rate to fall even lower to 7.3 percent in 2014, compared to 7.7 percent last year. This would make it the lowest rate of growth since 1990.

The government, which has pegged an expansion of 7.5 percent for this year, has taken steps such as tax breaks for small businesses and measures to speed up investment in housing. The benign inflation figures should also help to stoke spending.

“What’s reflected here is no big surprise,” analyst Medha Samant told CNBC in a televised interview. “Food prices which make up a big chunk of the CPI basket have been stable in China.”

Samant, who is the investment director of Asian equities at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, said the process could be volatile at times, especially during festival times. “But they sort of trend at this slight inflationary level depending on demand, so we are well within expectations,” she said.

CONSUMER PRICE

On a year-on-year basis, the statistics bureau said, prices rose 2.4 percent in cities and 2.1 percent in rural areas in June, with food prices shooting up 3.7 percent and non-food prices by 1.7 percent.

The prices of consumer goods went up by 2.2 percent and the prices of services grew by 2.6 percent. On average from January to June, the overall consumer prices were up by 2.3 percent over the same period of the previous year.

Month-on-month in June, food prices went down by 0.4 percent, while the non-food prices kept at the same level. The prices of consumer goods decreased 0.2 percent while that of services increased 0.1 percent.

Food prices went up by 3.7 percent year-on-year, while that of for clothing rose 2.6 percent. Another area of immediate concern, prices for household facilities, articles and maintenance services, rose 1.2 percent year-on-year. The index for healthcare grew 1.3 percent.

Year-on-year increases were also seen in transportation and communication costs, which increased 0.6 percent. Of which, prices for fuels and parts for vehicles went up by 5.2 percent.

As a result, prices for touring and outing shot up by 7.8 percent while education service went up by 2.2 percent. Consequently, the price index for recreation, education, culture articles and services grew by 2.1 percent year-on-year.

The data also shows that property prices, always a source of concern in China, went north in the month under review. Prices for residence went up by 2.2 percent year-on-year. Of this, renting was 3.2 percent costlier while water, electricity and fuel went up by 1.2 percent.

“According to estimation, in the 2.3 percent growth in June, the carryover effect of last year’s prices rising accounted for 1.5 percentage points, while new prices rising factors in this year accounted for 0.8 percentage points,” the statistics bureau said in a statement.

MANUFACTURING UP

Meanwhile, what should also bring cheer is the latest manufacturing sector survey report by banking and financial services company HSBC, which said factories signalled the first improvement in overall operating conditions for six months in June.

“Output rose for the first time since January, and at a moderate pace,” the report said. “Growth was supported by the strongest expansion of total new work since March 2013, while new export orders rose for the second month running.”

Increased volumes of new business led to the quickest depletion of stocks of finished goods for nearly three years, while job shedding was the weakest in three months, it added.

The HSBC PMI – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted at 50.7 in June, up from 49.4 in May, and signalled the first improvement in business conditions since last December.

“That said, the rate of improvement was only slight and weaker than the historical average,” HSBC added.

The report said an improvement in the health of the sector partly reflected the first expansion of total new business placed at Chinese manufacturers for five months during June. “Furthermore, it was the strongest rate of new order growth in 15 months,” it added.

Reports from panellists suggested that improving market conditions boosted sales in the latest survey period. New export business also rose in June, albeit at a marginal pace that was weaker than May’s 49-month high.

Anecdotal evidence suggested that unfinished business rose due to increased amounts of new work. Consequently, stocks of finished goods declined at a moderate pace, which was still the fastest since September 2011.

“The economy continues to show more signs of recovery, and this momentum will likely continue over the next few months, supported by stronger infrastructure investments,” said Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC.

“We expect both fiscal and monetary policy to remain accommodative until the recovery is sustained,” he added.

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China’s industrial output growth during April declined below forecasts, according to data released by its statistics office earlier this week, while its retail sector disappointed even as recent trends show the country is going through an online shopping boom like never before.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s data office, said on Tuesday that China’s industrial output rose 8.7 percent in April from the year-ago period, skidding a tad from an 8.8 percent annualised increase over that in March.

It was also below economists’ expectations of an 8.9 percent rise.

Similarly, the data showed, China’s retail sales grew 11.9 percent year on year to 1.97 trillion yuan ($322.97 billion) in the month under review, missing forecasts of 12.2 percent.

China, which is eyeing an economic growth of around 7.5 percent in the current fiscal, at par with that targeted in 2013, wants to achieve a growth of 14.5 percent in retail sales. The economy grew 7.7 percent in 2013, the same rate as 2012, and above the official target.

“All the activity data are disappointing, indicating the domestic demand is weak and underscoring the downward pressure faced by the economy,” said Li Huiyong, Chief Macro Analyst at Shenyin and Wanguo Securities.

“I think the government should provide a relatively loose policy environment and needs to increase spending and fast track the approvals of investment projects,” Li told Reuters

Meanwhile, as across-the-counter retail sales stumble along, more and more Chinese are shopping online, reports said, with e-marketer Alibaba saying it expected its China sales to increase from last year’s 1,841 billion yuan ($295 billion) to 3,790 billion yuan in 2016 – or more than the nominal GDP of Sweden or Switzerland in 2013.

“Already, the amount of money spent in the Chinese retail cyber sphere is larger than the entire economies of Egypt or Finland,” said US news portal Quartz.

FACTORY DAMPENER

If the industrial output as a whole was a letdown, the trend was set by the manufacturing sector. According to economic health tracker Markit, Chinese manufacturers believe the overall operating conditions have deteriorated during April even as the factory sector registered a modest recovery.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index or PMI – a composite indicator designed by Markit to reflect the operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted 48.1 in April, down fractionally from the earlier flash reading of 48.3, and up from 48 in March.

“This signalled the fourth successive monthly deterioration in the health of the sector,” Markit said in its report released on Monday.

Earlier in the month, official statistician NBS said the manufacturing PMI for April nosed up to 50.4 from 50.3 the month before. A reading above 50 indicates expansion from the previous month, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The HSBC-Markit report is broader-based and factors in smaller privately-owned firms. In contrast, the Development Research Centre, the official data compilers in Beijing, considers only the bigger state-owned companies to prepare its report – which is likely to be skewed, painting a healthier picture of the economy than it actually is.

Last month, China’s manufacturing sector notched its worst performance since August 2013. Alongside, the government also announced a few small steps to prop up certain sectors such as announcing tax breaks for small businesses and invest more in the nation’s railway network.

“The data remain weak despite the improvement from March,” Reuters quoted Citigroup economist Ding Shuang as saying. “But the full impact of the economic support measures hasn’t been felt yet.”

Sun Wencun, an economist at CITIC Securities in Beijing, China’s moribund property sector remained a big concern.

“The economy is showing slight improvements due to recent policy measures but there is no sign of a bottoming out, and the trend of slowdown is continuing as the sluggish property market weighs on related industries,” Sun told Reuters.

STIMULUS AWAITED

The Development Research Centre data was announced a day after Premier Li Keqiang, who is grappling with a slowdown triggered by a construction sector slump in the first quarter this year, promised a leg-up for the business community.

Last month, data showed exports fell in annual terms for a second straight month in March. This was the poorest stretch since 2009.

“It’s uniformly disappointing and shows broad weakening of momentum across the board,” CNBC quoted Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist at Credit Agricole, as saying. “This is not overly surprising as it takes time for government stimulus to work through to the real economy.”

Kowalczyk bank, the largest retail banking group in France and second largest in Europe, expects China’s GDP) to lose pace to an annual growth of 7.3 percent in the second quarter, compared to 7.4 percent in the January-March period.

The market is hoping for fresh stimulus but China’s central bank has hinted that the government could be waiting for more data before taking a call on easing of policy.

“We expect activity indicators to continue to weaken in May and the government to loosen monetary policy in Q2 by cutting the reserve requirement ratio by 50bp,” Nomura’s Chief China Economist told Reuters. “If policy easing does not take place in Q2, we see downside risks to our GDP forecast of 7.5 per cent in H2,” Zhang added.

According to Zhang, “the most” concerning number is the fixed-asset investment number. “Given that the government is trying to push for infrastructure investment, the number basically tells us the housing downturn has more than offset the investment push from the government so far,” he told Reuters.

Other economists hold similar views. Julian Evans-Pritchard, economist with research firm Capital Economics, said the situation called for a state leg-up. “I don’t think there’s an argument for further stimulus at this point,” Evans-Pritchard told The Wall Street Journal.

Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, noted in the Markit report that “over the past few days”, Beijing has introduced more reform measures which could support growth by inducing more private sector investment. “We think bolder actions will be required to ensure the economy regains its momentum,” Qu said.

E-TAILING BOOM

The trending story of the times, of course, is the surging online shopping business in China. An estimated 80% of 618 million internet users in China now go online wirelessly, and e-tailers such as Alibaba, which is planning a bumper IPO in the US, are  rushing in with mobile-friendly services.

Reuters quoted Ben Cavender, an analyst for China Market Research Group, a Shanghai-based consulting firm, as saying that the shift to mobile internet is “putting a lot of pressure on traditional retailers and banks to offer a better service”.

It also talked to Cao Ying, a 30-year-old software engineer in Shanghai, who the agency said lived through her smart-phone by shopping for grocery, paying bills or finding a taxi.

“I try to buy everything online,” Cao told Reuters. “I’m one of those people who are driving shopping centres out of business.”

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Beijing, February 22: After two investor confidence-boosting announcements earlier this month, there’s dampening news emanating from behind the Great Wall – February was the worst month for China’s manufacturing sector since last August.

A key gauge of factory performance – the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index or PMI – was at a seven-month low in February, data released on Thursday by economic health tracker Markit showed.

The flash HSBC China PMI, a measure of the country’s factory output, fell to 48.3 in the month under review from 49.5 in January, Markit said. A reading above 50 indicates expansion from the previous month, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

A more accurate picture will emerge on March 3 when Markit releases its final data for February, it said in a statement. Incidentally, the HSBC- Markit PMI factors in more smaller and private companies and accords them greater weightage than the official index, which contains more large and state-owned firms, and which is in the positive territory.

The news came on the heels of announcements by Chinese officials on a remarkable turnaround in its current account situation and increased foreign fund inflows. On Tuesday, China said it had attracted nearly $11 billion in foreign investment in January, reflecting a little over a 16 per cent year-on-year jump.

On February 12, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said Chinese trade surplus rose to $31.86 billion in January from $25.6 billion the previous month.

Analysts, who had expected it to fall to $23.65 billion, were sceptical, and a leading financial services and news provider questioned the veracity of the official shipment data. Though China later denied any wrongdoing, apparently such doubts persist.

Stephen Green, an economist with Standard Chartered bank, told news agency Reuters the indices should be more correlated with the export economy than the domestic economy. “So it’s slightly surprising given stronger export numbers we’ve seen in the last couple of months.”

While Green said it looked like an “across-the-board weakness”, Ding Shuang, economist at Citigroup, feared worse. “There is continued downward pressure on the economy,” he said. “Economic growth will continue to decline to 7 per cent over the next two quarters.”

Moribund Dragon

In tune with all-round scepticism, China’s manufacturing contracted in February, the non-official Markit data showed, bolstering belief that contrary to the official stance, the dragon was actually undergoing a slowdown.

February’s flash reading of the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI moderated further as new orders and production contracted, “reflecting the renewed destocking activities,” Markit said.

Listing its key findings, Markit said the flash China manufacturing PMI stood at 48.3 in February, down from 49.5 in January, marking a seven-month low. Similarly, the preliminary manufacturing output index was at 49.2, a decline’s from the previous month’s 50.8 also a seven-month low.

The data compiler said business conditions deteriorated “at moderate pace in February”, a development that could partially be attributed to the Chinese Lunar New Year festivities from January 31, China’s biggest festival, when commercial establishments including factories shut down operations for several days.

Moreover, two Hong Kong analysts with the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch while admitting that the “visibility of short-term growth momentum is quite low” at the moment, it would be unwise to read too much into it.

“Macro numbers from national statistics agencies so far painted a mixed picture, with trade growth and credit expansion above market estimates,” Ting Lu and Xiaojia Zhi said in a note.

However, the overall picture as painted by the flash Markit figures was grim. Save for suppliers’ delivery time, the flash PMI shrank in every vertical; crucially, that for the new orders category dipped below 50 for the first time in seven months.

The index for new export orders was in step with official claims and was higher than that in January, but remained below 50.

The worst scenario was in the employment sub-category: the PMI for the staffing patterns also plummeted – a fall for the fourth straight month in February – to touch 46.9. This was the lowest the index has fallen in five years – since February 2009 – when the global meltdown was beginning to be felt following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

The contraction of new orders and production was behind the PMI moderation, said Qu Hongbin, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asia Economic Research at HSBC. This, according to him, reflected renewed destocking activities.

“The building-up of disinflationary pressures implies that the underlying momentum for manufacturing growth could be weakening ,” Qu said in a statement. “We believe Beijing policy makers should and can fine-tune policy to keep growth at a steady pace in the coming year.”

Policy Impact

Of late, China’s Commerce Ministry spokesman Shen Danyang said at a recent media interaction, more government thrust was now being accorded to attracting FDI inflows to China’s high-end manufacturing, the services sector and energy saving and environmental industries.

As result, reforms seem to have driven the economy to be propelled by the service sector and consumers, instead of new investments and exports on which China has traditionally depended upon for growth.

As a result, overseas investments in the services sector rose 7.4 per cent in January 2014 from January 2013. Similarly, FDI inflow into telecom equipment and the computer sector jumped 9.2 per cent.

But like Qu, other analysts too believe the Chinese government should initiate other steps, such as loosening monetary policy, to keep the economy growing at 7.5 per cent, which many believe Beijing will aim at this year despite Premier Li Keqiang saying China could manage with growth of 7.2 per cent.

First Shanghai Securities strategist Linus Yip told Reuters he expected Beijing to act if the economy slowed down any more. “They cannot proceed with their reform agenda without maintaining a certain level of growth,” Yip was quoted as saying.

Zhiwei Zhang, an economist at Japanese financial holding company, similarly said he expected Beijing to act.

“We reiterate our view that the recovery in China is not sustainable and that GDP growth will slow to 7.5 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter and 7.1 per cent in the second,” he said.

“We expect the government to loosen monetary policy in the second quarter to support growth.”

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