“The introduction of the H160 into Nigeria represents a meaningful step forward for our offshore operations in West Africa. This aircraft brings a combination of advanced technology, operational flexibility, and improved fuel efficiency that strengthens our ability to deliver safe, reliable, and cost-effective transportation for our customers. Its performance profile, particularly its range, payload capability in a 12-passenger configuration, and ability to operate from smaller helidecks, positions Bristow with a distinct advantage in this market. We believe the H160 will play an important role in supporting the evolving needs of the energy sector across the region,” Stu Stavely, Chief Operating Officer, Offshore Energy Services, Bristow Group, said.

“Milestone is pleased to support Bristow with the lease of five new H160s, making us the first lessor to introduce this aircraft type into Bristow’s fleet. Our continued investment in next-generation medium and super medium helicopters ensures our customers have access to the most efficient and capable aircraft on the market, supporting mission-critical operations around the world. We appreciate the strong collaboration with Bristow and Airbus and look forward to further strengthening our partnership in the years ahead,” remarked Pat Sheedy, Chief Executive Officer of Milestone.

“The arrival of these first two H160s in Nigeria is a proud moment for Airbus Helicopters as we see our latest medium-twin aircraft prepare to take flight for Bristow’s offshore missions. This delivery underscores our commitment to supporting the energy sector with a helicopter that sets new standards in safety, comfort, and competitiveness with its 18% reduction in fuel burn. We look forward to seeing the H160 in operation and continuing our long-standing partnership with both Bristow and Milestone,” noted Bruno Even, CEO of Airbus Helicopters.

With three additional H160s planned for delivery to fulfil the five-aircraft agreement, Bristow is well-positioned to operate one of the most modern and capable fleets in Africa to support mission-critical services for the energy industry. One of the world’s most technologically advanced helicopters, the H160 was designed and built to offer the highest levels of operational safety while providing exceptional comfort for rotorcraft in its class.

The H160 can perform a wide variety of missions such as law enforcement, offshore transportation, search and rescue, private and business aviation, and emergency medical services, and has been put into service in Brazil, Canada, China, France, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, the United States and Europe.

Image Credits: Airbus

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Today, there is a Silicon Savannah in Nairobi and a computer village in Lagos. They are infrastructure that were unthinkable just a decade ago. And as a result, the continent is brimming with chaotic and innovative energy.

The GDP growth of Africa is expected to reach around 4.1% by 2025. It is easily one of the fastest-growing regions on the planet. It might sound astounding, but if you take into consideration digital architecture, which includes 570 million users along with 855 million mobile data subscriptions, and if you also notice that the mobile money sector in the region accounts for an astonishing 74% of all global mobile money transactions, the maths adds up.

Of course, where there is growth, there are parasites. The hackers and cyber criminals are outpacing the defensive capabilities of the continent. These nefarious individuals and organisations are weaponising the same APIs, mobile payment gateways, cloud platforms, and other technological advancements that are facilitating the financial inclusion of the region.

There are several malicious groups to worry about, such as the local Yahoo Boys and international groups with state sponsorship, like the hacking group Anonymous Sudan.

This is what happens when you have high digital adoption and low cybersecurity maturity. There’s a gap that is perfect for criminals who want to siphon the continent’s economic gains. Nobody really knows how much of the economy is at risk, but there are even studies that claim that cybercrime causes Africa almost 10% of its GDP. There are conservative estimates that are also alarming, which tell us the number is in the billions. And more than money, reputation and structure are at risk.

The stakes can’t get any higher. Africa is trying to emulate the European Union (EU) through the African Continental Free Trade Area. This organisation, like the EU, is trying to bind the continent into a single market where people can move and trade freely. But this ambitious goal is under threat by cybercriminals.

The financial institutions in Nigeria lost over ₦52 billion to fraud in 2024 alone. And South Africa was dog-piled by ransomware attacks, which were striking with precision at its critical infrastructure. This is a theoretical and operational threat that affects everything about the economies of these nations. The breadth of the issue is so wide that it can affect the issuance of Kenyan visas and the stability of the Central Bank of Uganda.

The anatomy of digital boom

If you have to understand the magnitude of the cyber threat to Africa, you have to understand Africa’s digital story, which is unique in the history of economics. The West had to go through industrialisation over centuries, having to go through so many different types of technologies and slowly evolve into the economy it is today. For example, there were copper wires and land lines, desktop computing, and then mobile connectivity in Europe.

But Africa was colonial and far behind the times. When globalisation hit and technology was being transferred to every nook and corner of the world, Africans skipped telegrams, landline telephones, and desktop computers and jumped directly to the age of mobile connectivity. It is called the “leapfrog effect” and is most visible in the financial sector, which happens to be the bedrock of Africa’s identity. Look no further, in today’s sub-Saharan Africa, there are about 1.1 billion homes with registered mobile money accounts. That’s almost half the global total. And in 2024 alone, these platforms processed about 81 billion transactions, which can be valued at a staggering $1.1 trillion.

The mobile-centric architecture democratised finance, and millions of unbanked individuals are now in the formal economy, sending money to relatives in rural villages and paying for solar power or accessing microloans by pressing a few buttons.

Small and medium enterprises benefited greatly from this. Currently, they contribute about 50% of total GDP and constitute 95% of all registered businesses. Unfortunately, these SMEs are most vulnerable to these cyber attacks as they don’t have the resources to defend themselves and aren’t informed enough to take precautions.

The integration of technology into the daily life of common Africans essentially means that a cyber attack on Africa doesn’t just affect corporations and can also disrupt the subsistence of its citizens.

The infrastructure of vulnerability

The nations of Africa have prioritised speed over security when building digital infrastructures. And this is what industry experts call a maturity gap, where technology is built too fast to be secured. The continent’s digital growth is mostly driven by artificial intelligence, application programming interfaces (APIs), and cloud adoption. These technologies facilitate the connection of disparate financial services. However, they do come with systemic risks. For example, a third-party payment processor can be compromised, which would cascade into banks, telecom operators, government portals, and so on. It is a domino effect where all this interconnectivity creates a risk to the economy as a whole.

And the physical infrastructure supporting this massive boom is expanding at an astounding pace. There are investments in undersea cables, such as Google’s Equiano and Meta’s 2 Africa, and there is also a proliferation of local data centres, thus reducing latency and, of course, data costs too.

Security engineers believe that the modernisation of infrastructure, including shared digital infrastructure (SDI), where governments and companies pool resources, broadens the attack surface. The larger the system, the easier it is for it to fall.

The economic calculus of cybercrime

Determining the exact cost of cybercrime in Africa is difficult, as we discussed earlier. The UN Economic Commission for Africa has a disturbing statistic, pinning the losses at 10% of GDP. One must note that Africa’s GDP is around $2.8 trillion, which should imply that almost $300 billion is lost annually. Many economists are skeptical about this data, but if it’s true, it would mean that cybercrime is actually taking away more money than what is required to combat malaria and HIV combined.

INTERPOL doesn’t truly agree with the UN estimates and believes the direct losses must be in the range of $4 billion to $10 billion annually. While this isn’t the jaw-dropping 10% of GDP, it is still 0.15% to 2.13% of total GDP. To put things into perspective, Sierra Leone has a GDP of $4 billion, and this figure is an exact equivalent.

No matter the precise data, it’s an undeniably alarming trajectory. In Nigeria alone, financial institutions lost ₦52.26 billion to fraud in 2024. There was around a 7.63% increase in fraud cases. The attacks are becoming more precise, targeting high-value, high-net-worth individuals or organisations.

They are no longer casting a wide net, but spearing specific whales. The cost of data breaches in South Africa reached $2.95 million in 2034 (one of the highest in the world) before slightly coming down to $2.45 million in 2035, due to better detection technologies.

The spectrum of threats

There is a wide array of attacks ranging from crude, volume-based to highly sophisticated and targeted campaigns. The spectrum can range from a lone hacker in a cafe to a state-sponsored operative from a distant capital.

Ransomware was just a nuisance once upon a time, but it’s one of the most dominant threats in the economy right now, with South Africa and Egypt bearing most of the brunt of the assault.

In 2024, South Africa reported approximately 18,000 ransomware detections, closely followed by Egypt with around 12,000. Both Nigeria and Kenya also experienced significant threats, with thousands of incidents occurring.

Most of the targets are strategic and high-value. Hackers usually target critical infrastructure, government databases, or major financial institutions. And they also encrypt data to paralyse operations of an organisation or individual and demand a ransom for not blackmailing victims with threats to leak their private data to the public. Organisations like Kenya’s Urban Roads Authority (KURA) and Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are prime examples of organisations that had to pay due to ransomware attacks.

And then there is business email compromise (BEC) and phishing. Phishing is still the primary vector for initial access. Phishing victims in Africa rose from 26% to 32% in 2024. In BEC attacks, which usually follow phishing, fraudsters compromise legitimate email accounts of executives or finance officers and authorise fraudulent wire transfers. It’s most prevalent in West Africa, where there are criminals who have honed their skills over decades.

Digital sextortion is one of the worst forms of cyberattacks. Criminals often use explicit images generated with AI to blackmail victims. With the rise of AI, criminals no longer need real photos; they can use deepfake technologies to blackmail anyone sensitive about their public image. This can disproportionately affect women and public figures.

And finally, there is DDoS. DDoS, or distributed denial of service attacks, has moved beyond vandalism to become a real tool of geopolitical coercion. The high-profile attack by Anonymous Sudan against Kenya’s digital infrastructure in 2023 and 2024 exemplified this shift. Although they claim those attacks were political and for the benefit of the nation of Sudan, security researchers believe Anonymous Sudan may have ties to Russian cybercrime ecosystems like KillNet. This connection was observed when they targeted Kenya’s eCitizen platform, M-PESA services, and power utilities. The attack was so humiliating for Kenya because they were issuing digital visas, which no longer worked, and they had to roll back to issuing visas on arrival. It caused so much chaos in Nairobi without even firing a shot.

Of course, things are at their worst when there is a spy or a colluder in your organisation. For example, Access Bank in Nigeria lost over 800 million Naira because of an employee who was colluding with cybercriminals. If you have underpaid or disgruntled employees, criminals might recruit them to work as insiders.

The insider threat is very difficult to detect because no amount of sophisticated monitoring of the digital infrastructure is going to prevent internal sabotage. Employees might be tempted to sell their credentials if they are going to be paid much more by a criminal than by their employer, especially in poor regions like Africa.

The future of defence

The future of cybersecurity is defined by the sovereignty of data. We are going to see a lot of data nationalism rise, where nations demand that their data be stored locally. This might complicate the operations of global tech giants, but it will spur the growth of local cloud infrastructure.

Rwanda’s Data Governance Policy is a good example of this. However, we are playing a game of catch-up as quantum computing is moving too fast; any current encryption standard is easily overcome by hackers in a matter of weeks or months. Even if Africans use the current technology available in Europe, by the time they implement it, they will be left behind by all the technological advancements happening in the world and adopted by malicious actors. If they want to be ahead of the game, they have to prepare for post-quantum cryptography.

Experts like Dr. Bright Gameli Mawudor predict that attacks will be fully automated, meaning the hacker will be an AI in the near future rather than a human being. He also warns that automated scripts could theoretically compromise national central banks if there are vulnerabilities, suggesting that the future of war is going to be machine against machine, where humans are either spectators or victims.

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Ghana’s growing reputation as a West African investment powerhouse, combined with its track record of political stability and business-friendly regulations, helps draw in foreign capital. The industries that demand attention include financial services, tourism, infrastructure, mining, oil and gas, agriculture and agro-processing, particularly cocoa, and information and communications technology.

China, the United States, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Ireland are among the larger economies with businesses operating in Ghana. Procter & Gamble, Volkswagen, Toyota, and Sinotruk are among the more well-known brands. International telecom providers include Vodafone, AirtelTigo, Huawei Technologies, and MTN of South Africa.

Incoming mining operators include Newmont Ghana Gold Ltd, Gold Fields Ghana Ltd, and Anglogold Ashanti Ghana Ltd., while foreign companies seeking to increase production are also entering Ghana’s relatively new oil industry. These companies include Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, and Italy’s ENI.

Despite growing interest, Ghana’s annual FDI has fluctuated due to macroeconomic uncertainty, culminating in a debt crisis in 2022.

According to Macrotrends, an investor research platform, FDI inflows into Ghana increased by 35% to $2.5 billion in 2021. However, inflows fell to $1.3 billion in 2023, a 7.6% decrease from 2022.

Stabilisation successful

When Ghana and the International Monetary Fund finalised a loan support agreement in May 2023, it might have marked the start of a new era. The stabilisation was further reinforced by the presidential election in December 2024.

In a December 2024 report, the IMF stated, “The capital and financial account is expected to gradually improve over the coming five years, with FDI projected to increase to 3% of GDP by 2028 following the completion of the debt restructuring and gradual reform implementation.”

Recently, fund representatives visited Accra to evaluate Ghana’s economic performance and structural changes under the stabilisation plan.

In his March 2025 budget speech, Minister of Finance Cassiel Ato Forson said, “The commitment to continue implementing the ongoing IMF-supported programme and reforms to forge macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability will restore investor confidence, resulting in further improvement in FDI flows.”

According to Ghana’s Exemption Act of 2022, manufacturing, minerals and mineral processing, mining by Ghanaian indigenous people, oil and gas (value addition), real estate (property development and road infrastructure), pharmaceuticals, agro-processing, and tourism are among the priority investment sectors that will benefit from investor tax incentives.

Politically speaking, Marcel Okeke, a former Senior Economist at Zenith Bank, Nigeria’s top lender, argues that Ghana’s peaceful election in December means that democracy has come to stay.”

John Dramani Mahama, a former president, was chosen by Ghanaians to succeed President Nana Akufo-Addo. There was no demand for court intervention during the changes in government and political party, which suggests that a time of stability may be on the horizon.

There have been some benefits from the financing arrangement with the IMF. A bigger trade surplus and more IMF borrowing were the main drivers of Ghana’s modest gains in external reserves, which grew to $8.8 billion in 2024 from about $6 billion the year before.

Notwithstanding these encouraging indications, difficulties still exist. Although the increase in reserves is a good thing, Ghana still owes $28.3 billion in external debt, which includes a portion of eurobonds whose payments have had to be postponed. In 2027, more than half of the $8.7 billion in foreign debt service is due.

“We will fix it,” Forson said, adding that “these humps are cancerous and pose a significant risk to the economy.”

With only $8.8 billion in total reserves, Ghana’s central bank might run out of money in roughly three and a half months because it owes the IMF about $2.5 billion, or nearly 30% of its reserves.

Emeka Ucheaga, head of Research and Business Intelligence at Credit Direct, a financial company based in Lagos, said, “The reserves are too low to offer tangible protection to investors in the event of external shocks.”

Ucheaga cautions that despite the economy’s improved GDP growth in the second and third quarters of last year, macroeconomic fundamentals are still precarious. Rising inflation is eroding investor profits and purchasing power. According to official data, the rate barely decreased to 23.1% in February 2025 from 23.8% in December 2024. After a brief upswing toward the close of 2024, the Ghanaian cedi has since reverted, falling 5.3% in the first quarter.

Cautious optimism post-crisis

Foreign investors and analysts have reacted to Ghana’s post-crisis landscape with a mix of caution and guarded optimism. In mid-2023, as Ghana grappled with debt restructuring, Fitch Solutions warned that uncertainty and a sharply devalued cedi would “keep foreign investors cautious,” noting that sentiment remained weak and FDI inflows were unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels immediately.

Memories of the 2022 default still loom large, and investors have been awaiting clear signs of stabilisation.

Emeka Ucheaga, head of research at a Lagos-based finance firm, argues that Ghana must “demonstrate a sustained commitment to economic stability,” from taming inflation to building reserves from non-debt sources, before confidence truly returns.

That said, there are growing rays of optimism. The International Monetary Fund’s support programme, secured in 2023, and the successful presidential election in 2024 have improved the outlook.

“Over the coming five years, the capital and financial account is expected to gradually improve,” the IMF observed in late 2024, projecting FDI to rise to 3% of GDP by 2028 once debt restructuring and reforms are complete.

Ghana’s officials echo this optimism: “Commitment to…reforms to forge macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability will restore investor confidence, resulting in further improvement in FDI flows,” Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson affirmed in the 2025 budget speech.

Some regional analysts are bullish on Ghana’s prospects given its stability. Marcel Okeke, a former chief economist at Zenith Bank, points out that, unlike some neighbours plagued by insecurity, “We do not hear about [terrorism] in Ghana… Investors look for a place to put their money and go to sleep. That is why investors will want to put their money into Ghana.”

In short, while scepticism remains until reforms bear fruit, many see Ghana turning the corner, provided it stays the course on prudent policies.

Stacking up against regional peers

Ghana’s bid to attract FDI cannot be viewed in isolation. It competes with regional peers like Kenya, Cote d’Ivoire, and Nigeria, which each offer a different mix of opportunities and risks.

In 2023, Ghana drew about $1.35 billion in FDI inflows, a respectable sum, but slightly behind Cote d’Ivoire (around $1.75 billion) and Kenya (about $1.5 billion).

Notably, Ghana far outpaced Nigeria, which saw FDI plummet to just $377 million amid its own economic challenges. These numbers tell a story. While Ghana remains one of West Africa’s top FDI destinations, accounting for roughly 20% of the region’s FDI stock, it has lost some momentum to rivals.

Cote d’Ivoire has emerged as a standout, steadily growing its FDI even through global turbulence. The Ivorian economy, buoyed by annual growth above 5%, attracted more investment in 2022 and 2023 than it did pre-pandemic. Abidjan’s government has implemented pro-business reforms, such as digitising administrative procedures and a major development plan. These changes, combined with political stability, make it a favourable destination for foreign investors.

The result is diversified inflows spanning industry (over 50% of FDI), services, and agriculture, with investors from Europe, Asia, and the region. Even neighbouring Burkina Faso was a top source.

Kenya, for its part, leverages its status as East Africa’s commercial hub. Nairobi hosts numerous regional headquarters for multinationals and has nurtured a dynamic tech sector. These factors helped Kenya remain among Africa’s largest FDI recipients.

Even though FDI to Kenya dipped 5.8% in 2023, totalling $1.5 billion, the country’s appeal lies in its relatively diversified economy and investor-friendly climate. Over nearly two decades, Kenya climbed global rankings for ease of doing business thanks to regulatory improvements. These changes have made it attractive for manufacturing and service offshoring projects.

Nigeria presents a more cautionary tale. Africa’s biggest economy has an unquestionable market size and oil wealth, yet chronic issues have driven foreign investors away.

In 2023, Nigeria’s FDI inflow was not only a fraction of Ghana’s, but it fell by 19% to $377 million, an extraordinarily low figure relative to Nigeria’s GDP.

Capital flight from Nigeria stemmed from political uncertainty, high operating costs, and an unfavourable business climate that saw major multinationals in oil and telecoms curtailing or divesting investments. However, late-2023 policy shifts under a new administration, including removing fuel subsidies and liberalising the exchange rate, have started to restore some confidence. This was evidenced by a modest uptick in capital inflows in Q4 2023. If Nigeria follows through on reforms, such as tackling forex shortages and security issues, it could regain ground. For now, Ghana holds an edge in stability and predictability.

The comparison reveals Ghana’s relative strengths and areas for improvement. Unlike Nigeria, Ghana has maintained peace and a smoother regulatory environment, and unlike smaller peers, it boasts a sizeable consumer base and abundant natural resources.

Yet, Kenya and Cote d’Ivoire have been more aggressive in reforms and infrastructure investment, which enhances their FDI appeal. Ghana still ranks behind Kenya on some competitiveness measures and has recently been leapfrogged by the Ivory Coast in annual FDI.

Ghana’s FDI numbers

Digging into the data reveals where Ghana’s FDI is coming from, and where it is not. According to the Ghana Investment Promotion Centre (GIPC), FDI project commitments in 2023 totalled $649.6 million, spread across 122 projects.

The figure based on GIPC-registered projects was barely half of the previous year’s, mirroring the sharp drop in actual inflows recorded in the balance of payments.

The investments Ghana did secure in 2023 were concentrated in a few key sectors. Manufacturing led the pack, accounting for about $280 million, which was the single largest FDI value by sector. Close behind were services, which drew roughly $226 million, reflecting investor interest in Ghana’s financial services, telecom, and hospitality segments.

Retail and trading activities also saw some investment ($75 million), while sectors like agriculture and construction made up smaller portions of the pie. This sectoral breakdown aligns with Ghana’s traditional strengths: processing of resources (cocoa, gold, etc.), consumer goods manufacturing, and a growing services economy. Oil and mining, often major FDI magnets, were not explicitly broken out in the GIPC figures, likely because much of the recent activity there involves reinvestment by established players rather than new inflows.

Another way to analyse the FDI is by source and structure. Ghana has long welcomed investors from around the globe. By 2023, the stock of FDI in the country had swelled to $47.3 billion, with multinationals from South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, France, Mauritius, and China among the top contributors over time.

Recent project data, however, show a shifting mix of countries driving new investments. In 2023, China was the standout, responsible for the largest portion of new FDI, about $212 million across 31 projects. This likely reflects Chinese firms increasing their footprint in Ghana’s resource and industrial sectors.

Surprisingly, Turkey contributed a substantial $173 million through only four projects, suggesting that a few large Turkish ventures, possibly in construction or manufacturing, made a significant impact. Other notable sources included India ($78 million), traditional partners like the United States ($26 million) and the Netherlands ($22 million).

The dominance of China, which provided one-third of 2023’s FDI value, underscores Ghana’s pivot toward Asian capital. Meanwhile, relatively smaller contributions from Western investors indicate that there is room to rebuild confidence among US and European firms in the post-crisis period.

In terms of investment type, Ghana’s FDI inflows are primarily equity-based. This includes mainly greenfield projects and business expansions, rather than debt-financed deals. For instance, in 2022, Ghana recorded 39 new greenfield projects valued at approximately $1.33 billion, which aligns with the total FDI inflow for that year. This indicates that foreign companies are focused on establishing or expanding their businesses locally, rather than acquiring stakes in or lending to local firms.

By contrast, portfolio investment and loans experienced major volatility during the debt saga. The joint venture model is also significant. In 2023, around 32 out of 122 FDI projects were joint ventures between foreign and local partners, with the remainder wholly foreign-owned. These joint ventures not only bring in capital but also involve Ghanaian stakeholders, which can promote local employment and facilitate knowledge transfer.

Overall, the data depict an FDI profile in transition. While overall volumes have declined, the manufacturing and service sectors have remained resilient. Meanwhile, newer investors like China and Turkey play a more prominent role. Encouragingly, early 2024 showed signs of a rebound. Ghana’s central bank reported net FDI of $1.74 billion for the year, up 32.7% from 2023.

In late 2023, the macroeconomic stability improved, and investor funds began returning. However, reaching the pre-crisis high of over $2.5 billion in 2021 will require sustained investor confidence, underpinned by structural reforms and perhaps a few landmark investments.

The government’s targeted sectors for incentives, including manufacturing, mining value-addition, agriculture and agribusiness, infrastructure, and tourism, highlight where it hopes the next wave of FDI will land. The challenge will ensure that future FDI flows align with these priorities and that policy consistency sustains momentum.

A positive view

Ucheaga said, “When combined, these indicators show a country still in the early stages of stabilisation rather than in a phase of renewed investor confidence. This ongoing uncertainty is reflected in the fluctuations in FDI inflows.”

He argues that investor sentiment continues to be influenced by memories of Ghana’s December 2022 debt default, as well as a broader global economic environment marked by rising protectionism and the looming threat of a global trade war, even in the face of improved trade data and IMF backing.

Ucheaga emphasises that Ghana must show a consistent commitment to economic stability to reverse this trend. That involves steadily increasing foreign reserves through reliable, non-debt-driven sources, maintaining a trade surplus, and continually expanding the real economy.

He also stresses that to preserve the value of investments, inflation must be under control and the exchange rate must be stabilised. The government has outlined targets for economic growth, including a non-oil GDP expansion of 4.8%, an overall real GDP growth of at least 4%, and an inflation rate aimed at reaching 11.9% by the end of the year.

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By 2006, bilateral trade reached USD 3 billion, up from USD 384 million in 1998. In the same year, Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Nigeria, securing several oil-drilling licenses and pledging USD 4 billion for oil and infrastructure projects, including a USD 1 billion loan for modernising railways.

These early years exhibited notable imbalances: Chinese exports comprised nearly 80 % of Nigeria’s imports, stifling local industries (textiles, in particular) and resulting in factory closures and mass layoffs.

Still, this relationship laid the groundwork for large-scale infrastructure investments funded through export-import transactions and loans, often carried out under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) umbrella.

Scaling Up With Strategic Focus

There are three major developments in recent times. They include the Levi Corridor Road, Kano Kaduna railway and the Lagos-Kano Standard-Gauge Railway.

In May 2025, Nigeria’s federal executive council approved a USD 652 million loan from China’s Exim Bank for a critical road linking Lekki Deep Sea Port with the Dangote Refinery and southern states. This corridor is meant to streamline logistics, boost trade flows, and connect major economic hubs.

In January 2025, China Development Bank released a USD 254.76 million instalment to support the 203 km Kano–Kaduna rail project, which is part of the broader Lagos–Kano railway and integral to boosting passenger travel and security in Nigeria’s north.

Since the Abuja–Kaduna segment began in 2016, China has steadily funded and constructed additional segments through CCECC, reviving a rail network that was nearly defunct by the 2000s. Efforts continue on Lagos–Ibadan, Kaduna–Kano, and coastal rail segments valued collectively at billions of dollars.

There are also energy and industrial infrastructure developments. In late 2024, Nigeria inked a USD 1.2 billion deal with China’s CNCEC to refurbish a gas-processing plant critical to its aluminium sector, demonstrating deeper industrial collaboration.

Recently, some 36 Nigerian governors signed an MoU with Chinese partners to address the African country’s energy crisis through renewables. Concurrently, Nigeria also explored nuclear cooperation with China in small modular reactors.

China is also trying to build a comprehensive strategic partnership in Africa. In January 2025, Nigerian Foreign Minister Tuggar hosted China’s Wang Yi, elevating bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic level. They committed to collaboration on clean energy, defence, infrastructure, a possible currency swap expansion, and support for Nigeria’s “Panda bonds” to raise infrastructure capital. In June 2025, China announced it would eliminate tariffs on exports from its 53 diplomatic partners in Africa, including middle-income nations like Nigeria. This aims to balance trade (where China maintains a USD 62 billion surplus) by easing access for African-manufactured goods.

Sector-Wide Analysis

Robust funding for roads and rail (such as the Lekki corridor and Kano–Kaduna line) is transforming Nigeria’s logistics backbone. These projects reduce transportation costs, enhance distribution networks, and increase competitiveness for Nigerian goods; they also create immediate construction jobs and stimulate regional economic activity.

Energy infrastructure enhancements, in fossil fuels and renewables, directly influence Nigeria’s energy security and industrial productivity. The gas plant rehabilitation supports downstream manufacturing (notably aluminium), while renewable energy projects aim to diversify energy sources beyond traditional fossil fuels and enhance rural electrification.

Duty-free access to the Chinese market marks a significant milestone. Countries like Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, and Morocco (boasting burgeoning manufacturing sectors) stand to gain from tariff elimination. Successful execution could stem the flow of value-added goods to China, rebalance trade, and nurture local manufacturing.

The currency-swap agreement with China and Panda bond mechanisms diversify Nigeria’s capital sources and reduce dependency on Western debt. They also provide buffers against naira volatility and dampen exchange rate pressures, which is critical given Nigeria’s high inflation and currency struggles.

Strategic Considerations And Potential Risks

Nigeria’s debt to China has surpassed USD 5 billion, making China its largest bilateral creditor. While concessional loans fuel growth, they also increase debt-service obligations and potential disputes over repayment terms, especially if projects underperform.

Despite new initiatives, the historical dominance of Chinese imports poses a challenge. Domestic industries (particularly textiles and light manufacturing) have been undone by an influx of cheap imports. Tariff removal is a necessary but not sufficient step; domestic industrial policies must evolve to build real capacities.

Chinese investment’s historically top-down nature risks sidelining community voices, transparency, and labour standards. Future success depends on embedding oversight, environmental diligence, and fair labour practices.

Emerging as West Africa’s logistics nucleus, Nigeria (with deeper Chinese engineering and funding) can serve as a gateway for trade to neighbours. Its ports, railways, and roads could benefit broader regional integration.

Nigeria’s strategy exemplifies a recalibration of relations with China, aligning with African calls for “greater agency” in external partnerships. By demanding better terms, trade access, and project alignment with domestic goals, Nigeria sets a template for other nations.

If the elimination of Chinese tariffs holds, Nigeria’s manufacturing ambitions (especially in agriculture, minerals processing, and light goods) may gain footholds. Complementary policies like subsidies, export incentives, and standards enforcement will be essential for capitalising on new market access.

China remains Africa’s top bilateral trade partner, with USD 282 billion in trade in 2023. Despite complaints over debt traps and slowing GDP in China, Nigerian and African leaders view China as a stable source of development finance. The ongoing partnership challenges Western dominance and offers African states alternative development pathways.

Success means transforming infrastructure into thriving manufacturing sectors, leveraging trade access, and using new financial tools to drive inclusive growth. Failure risks deepening dependency, worsening debt burdens, and allowing policy missteps to marginalise local industries.

Africa and the world are watching. If Nigeria leverages these tools to deliver jobs, reduce poverty, and fuel regional value chains, it could spark a model for Pan-African growth. But it will take strategic governance, local capacity-building, and bold policy reform to turn billions in infrastructure into sustainable, equitable development.

The post IF Insights: China-Nigeria partnership paves way for Africa’s economic growth appeared first on International Finance.

Access Bank Cameroon, a wholly owned subsidiary of Access Bank PLC, proudly reflects the heritage of Africa’s largest bank by customer numbers.

Established in May 2022, Access Bank Cameroon has quickly emerged as a key player in the nation’s financial sector, demonstrating exceptional growth and a steadfast commitment to financial inclusion. The bank’s exponential rise has been a glorious part of Access Bank Group’s wider journey, which began in West Africa in 1989.

“Our strategic goals align with the Access Corporation’s promise of delivering service beyond banking. By leveraging technology and innovation, Access Bank is migrating most of its customers to digital platforms and expanding its footprint to the 24 African countries in which it currently has presence. As Access Bank Cameroon continues to support trade, payments, and investment flows within Cameroon, across Africa, and beyond, its mission remains clear: to be the world’s most respected African bank while driving financial inclusion and innovation,” the bank told International Finance.

A Legacy Of Excellence: Africa’s Gateway To The World

With roots tracing back to 1989 in West Africa, Access Bank has grown into a banking giant, servicing over 65 million customers across 24 markets, including 16 in Africa. Its presence also extends to the UAE, United Kingdom, France and Hong Kong, with representative offices in China, India, and Lebanon.

In 2024, Access Bank executed several major strategic acquisitions, deepening its presence across Africa. These included acquiring Standard Chartered Bank’s subsidiaries in Angola and Sierra Leone, signing a binding agreement to acquire Bidvest Bank in South Africa, and taking over Atlas Mara’s assets in Zambia. These moves highlight the bank’s long-term commitment to connecting African markets and enabling cross-border trade and investment. Credit agencies also have taken note of these measures, with Fitch and Moody’s praising Access Bank for enhancing profitability through smart expansion.
The bank’s efforts have also earned it prestigious recognitions, such as “Best Bank in Ghana by Global Finance,” “Best Bank for ESG in Nigeria and Ghana by Euromoney,” and “Best Trade Partner Bank in West Africa by the IFC.”

Access Bank Cameroon: A New Powerhouse

Access Bank Cameroon is rapidly emerging as a major player in the country’s financial ecosystem. Established in May 2022, the bank has made remarkable strides in just two years.

Customer deposits have grown by XAF 146 billion, a testament to its growing trust. The expansion of its branch network in Douala and Yaoundé, alongside the launch of innovative digital products, demonstrates the bank’s commitment to providing easy access to quality banking services.

In 2024, Access Bank Cameroon was widely recognised for its achievements, and it won honours like Global Brands Magazine’s “Best Banking CEO, Cameroon,” “Leading Mobile Banking App, Cameroon,” “Best CSR Bank, Cameroon,” “Excellence in Banking Innovation – EcoMatin,” “Fastest Growing Bank – Cameroon English Newspaper Publishers,” “Best Customer Service Bank – Guardian Post and International Finance Magazine,” and “Best Services Provider and Best Non-Primary Dealer Bank for Cameroon.”

Driving Financial Inclusion

With only 15% of Cameroonian adults having access to formal financial services, Access Bank Cameroon has prioritised financial inclusion. Its tailored solutions cater to SMEs, youth, women, and unbanked populations. Some of the key innovations undertaken by the venture include AccessMore Mobile App (a smart, user-friendly app for transfers, bill payments, and Payday Loans), USSD Banking (a solution that enables banking access without internet connectivity), PrimusPlus (a platform for seamless account management and transactions across CEMAC), TradePlus (facilitating local and international trade finance), and Prepaid and Debit Cards (offering secure, global payment and withdrawal options).

These tools empower individuals and businesses, facilitating broader economic participation and growth.

Commitment To Sustainability And Social Impact

Access Bank Cameroon champions a corporate culture rooted in empowerment, innovation, and community impact. Its ESG (environmental, social, and governance) and CSR (corporate social responsibility) initiatives have reached over 200,000 Cameroonians in 2024, aligning closely with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In 2024, the venture undertook school infrastructure support and financial literacy outreach, along with providing free health screenings and essential medical supplies in the African country.

On the environment front, Access Bank Cameroon undertook clean-up drives and waste management programmes, along with providing microloans and business training to upcoming entrepreneurs in partnership with government bodies, NGOs, and associations.

In early 2025, the bank partnered with Cameroon’s Ministry of Youth and Civic Education (MINJEC) to support the distribution of biometric youth cards. Other collaborations with microfinance institutions have helped bring financial services to underbanked communities.

Access Bank Cameroon is on a mission to transform banking into a platform for progress. Its 2025 strategic priorities include expanding its branch and digital network, supporting intra-African trade, empowering SMEs and women entrepreneurs, and enhancing national development through financial innovation.

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To rein in inflation, which stood at 24.48% in January 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria has been pursuing a contractionary monetary policy, an attempt to fend off inflation by reducing the money supply. The apex financial body maintained its benchmark lending rate at 27.50% in its latest meeting.

However, these policies have reduced the living standards of Nigerians. People are now paying higher prices for food, transportation, energy, health, and education. And this benchmark lending rate has also ensured yields and borrowing costs are rising in step with each round of monetary policy tightening, thereby establishing Governor Olayemi Cardoso’s reputation as a fiscal tightening hawk.

However, a rare sweet spot has been the country’s growing yield market, on which the African Banker recently reported: “At a 13 October Treasury bills auction by the central bank under its open market operations aimed at controlling liquidity, the regulator closed the deal at 24.3%. Dealers said the central bank chose that stop rate to keep the transaction to the ₦500 billion on offer and avoid oversubscription.”

Health of Nigerian yield market

On October 15, Treasury and Open Market Operations bills were trading with yields between 21% and 25.96%, with bills due in June 2025 leading the pack. Yields on federal government bonds have been slightly more subdued, ranging from 16.73% to 23.71%, according to data on the Financial Market Dealers Association’s FMDQ platform.

“Commercial papers, through which companies raise short-term financing for working capital and other uses, have led the way toward higher rates. Dufil Prima Foods, which manufactures the popular Indomie noodles brand, is among the first companies to sell commercial papers since the latest central bank rate increase. An offer repayable in April 2025, at 27%, opened on 10 October, with subscribers given a week to take up the offer. One of the first issuers to reach the 30% mark for yields is SKLD Integrated Services Ltd., with 270-day notes that closed on 4 September. A separate 180-day duration offer had an interest rate of 28%,” the African Banker stated.

The ₦5 billion, 270-day commercial papers offered by C&I Leasing two days after the Central Bank decision had a yield of 29%. The Lagos-based company, which is engaged in equipment leasing and logistic services in Nigeria and Ghana, closed the offer on 4 October.

Similarly, two tranches of commercial papers issued by investment bank DLM Capital Group for ₦5 billion, with durations of 180 days and 270 days, attracted yields of 26.9% and 29%, respectively. Both offers closed on 26 September, two days after the central bank raised its key rate.

When Dangote Cement, Africa’s largest manufacturer of building materials and one of Nigeria’s most profitable companies, sold 177- and 266-day commercial papers in May 2024 for ₦150 billion, the yield was 5% and 6%, respectively. However, Dangote Sugar, with less formidable credentials in the same group, raised two tranches a month earlier for a total of ₦42.79 billion at 23% for the shorter tenor and 25% for the longer tenor, indicating that less risky issuers can still raise funds more cheaply.

In December 2024, foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) in Nigerian equities reached their highest post-COVID level, as the investments totalled $284 million in the first nine months of the year. This marked a 19% appreciation from the $239.2 million recorded in the corresponding period in 2023, according to the Capital Importation Data for Q3 2024 provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The positive trend also represented the highest level of interest in Nigerian equities since the first nine months of 2020, when foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in the market reached approximately $737 million.

Comparatively, FPI stood at $168.5 million in 2021, declined to $51.7 million in 2022, and rebounded to $239.2 million in 2023. With an FPI of $84.7 million in Q3 2024, it also represented the highest foreign investment in Nigerian equities in the third quarter of the year since 2019.

Before COVID-19, Nigerian equities attracted significant interest from foreign portfolio investors, with FPI inflows reaching approximately $1.89 billion in 2019 and $2.36 billion in 2018. In Q1 2020, before the pandemic-triggered lockdown, FPI in equities stood at $639 million but plunged sharply to $53.2 million in Q2. The FPI in equities in Q3 2024 represented a 912% growth from the $8.4 million recorded in Q3 2023. However, it represented a 43.5% decline from the $149.9 million recorded in Q2 2024.

In 2024, Nigeria’s economy also exhibited characteristics of a “hot money” hub, with foreign portfolio investments accounting for approximately 61% of the country’s total capital importation in the first nine months of the year.

Short-term money market instruments accounted for $3.43 billion of the $4.38 billion in foreign portfolio investments recorded in the first nine months of 2024. In fact, in the same year, the NGX also provided a year-to-date return of 31.34%, underperforming the country’s inflation rate and 2023’s returns.

Despite the African country experiencing its highest inflation since 1996 and benchmark interest rates surging to a record 27.5%, the increased foreign interest in Nigerian equities can be attributed to significant improvements in the country’s foreign exchange system. The current foreign exchange system also offers greater fluidity, enabling investors to seamlessly invest in Nigerian stocks and repatriate their USD returns without the need for lobbying.

The Nigerian market has also offered appealing returns, with stocks like Seplat Energy, which is also listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), appreciating by 147% in 2024. Airtel Africa, which also got dual-listed, recorded a 14% return year-to-date, while Oando, listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, posted a remarkable 499% return.

Have foreign investors found a winning formula?

The high yields on debt have proved to be an effective bait for foreign portfolio investors seeking higher returns. Foreign capital flows into Nigeria surged in the first half of 2024 to $5.98 billion, over double the $2.16 billion recorded for the same period in 2023, according to data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics.

With the first rate hike of 400 basis points in February 2024, there was an inadequate response time for investors, who brought in more than $1 billion by the end of March of that year. Inflows in Q2 reached $2.6 billion, more than double the figures for the preceding three months.

“At least $3.48 billion, or 58.2%, of the funds that came in between January and June of 2024 have gone to portfolio investments, a more-than-threefold increase from the $750 million spent on the same category of items during the comparable period last year. Out of the funds that went into portfolio investments, $2.68 billion went to money market instruments, $598 million went to bonds, and equities attracted $199 million. The money market investments targeted mainly Treasury bills, open-market-operations bills, and commercial papers,” the African Banker stated.

The naira kicked off 2025 with its strongest rally in 13 years, mirroring an early surge in 2024. Since December 2024, the naira has gained 9%, strengthening from ₦1,662/$ on December 2 to ₦1,509/$ on February 13, the biggest gain among African currencies, according to BusinessDay data.

In January 2025 alone, the currency appreciated 4% (₦63.14), hitting a seven-month high of ₦1,478.22/$. The last time such upward movement was seen was in 2012. Although the rally has cooled slightly in February, with the naira stabilising around ₦1,500/$, its strength in the parallel market has continued. It climbed to ₦1,545/$, up from ₦1,620/$ at the start of the month.

As per market insiders, the sharp reversal can be attributed to a decline in dollar supply and profit-taking by foreign investors. Many had entered the Nigerian market at ₦1,600/$, only to exit when the rate dropped to ₦1,300/$, locking in gains. Those who invested in Nigerian bonds, after the CBN adjusted rates to align with inflation, saw even higher returns upon exiting.

Analysts widely expect the currency to remain largely stable throughout 2025. Total foreign exchange inflows into the Nigerian autonomous foreign exchange market (NAFEM) increased by 53% to USD 4.7 billion at the end of January, up from USD 3.1 billion recorded in December 2024, according to data from the FMDQ.

Rate hike and a $500 million domestic bond

As Nigeria faces threats from severe inflation and exchange-rate pressures, the Tinubu administration has decided to stick to a tighter monetary policy rate while attracting foreign portfolio flows to help ease the pressure on the naira.

Under this approach, the African country sold its first foreign-currency domestic bond in September 2024, a $500 million offer that got a total of $900 million in subscriptions at 9.75%. Nigeria’s foreign reserves jumped 12.74% from the end of June 2024 to $39.12 billion as of 11 October, reversing the depletion of recent years.

Banks have emerged among the major beneficiaries of the current high-interest-rate regime. Guaranty Trust Holding, which operates Nigeria’s largest bank by market value, recently reported a threefold increase in net income for the first half of the year to ₦899.9 billion ($543.7 million). In all, the country’s top 12 banks combined recorded a 100% growth in profit before tax in the first six months compared with 2023.

Talking about the African country’s first-ever $500 million domestic dollar bond, whose issuance got oversubscribed to $900 million, it had local investors, pension funds, and the Nigerian diaspora as top subscribers and has provided a valuable source of hard currency amid ongoing dollar shortages and naira devaluation pressures. The “landmark transaction” also reflected Nigeria’s strategy to diversify funding sources and reduce reliance on international markets, where borrowing costs are higher.

The proceeds from the transaction are already supporting critical sectors of the economy, with plans to list the bond on local exchanges to enhance tradability. In addition to the annual interest rate of 9.75%, the $500 million bond is eligible for tax exemption for pension funds and other investors. The Central Bank of Nigeria has also granted it liquid asset status, meaning that banks can use it when calculating their liquidity ratios.

Market consensus described the bond pricing as highly attractive, with reports further suggesting the pricing was in alignment with the current yield of Nigeria’s Eurobond of equivalent tenor. Nigeria’s Eurobond of between three and five years currently yields between 9.662% and 10.03%; thus, the mid-point pricing of 9.75% was considered attractive.

A major advantage of the bond route pursued by Nigeria lies in the fact that the mechanism is the best alternative to borrowing to fund developmental projects and programmes, with no financial obligations on the government.

According to the Trust Deed for the bond, the Federal Government has pledged an irrevocable commitment that it shall keep fidelity to the nature of the bond as a dollar-based issuance, with both the principal and the coupon to be paid in the same currency.

Banks accelerate capital-raising further

Some five banks have rounded off preliminary documentation and approval processes to raise more than ₦1 trillion ($616.8 million) in the second wave of capital-raising as part of the ongoing banking recapitalisation exercise.

The banks—United Bank for Africa (UBA), Stanbic IBTC Holdings, Wema Bank, Premium Trust Bank, and Jaiz Bank—have reached advanced stages in their pre-offer processes, with the two largest banks within the cluster expected to headline the capital-raising this quarter.

Recently, another five banks raised more than ₦1.5 trillion ($925.2 million) in a momentous opening to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s directed programme. These institutions were Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO), Access Holdings, Zenith Bank International, Fidelity Bank, and FCMB Group.

The African country’s Securities and Exchange Commission is already considering applications from the banks. While some six offers are undergoing the regulatory approval process, UBA, which has its shareholders’ approval for a multi-instrument capital-raising programme, is expected to start with a rights issue, under which the bank plans to raise more than ₦384 billion ($236.8 million).

According to reports, Stanbic IBTC Holdings, which had launched a ₦550 billion ($339.2 million) capital-raising process, has also reached an advanced stage for the first tranche of its multi-instrument capital-raising. The company is also headlining its equity-raising with a rights issue, a favourite method under the recapitalisation programme.

The holding company’s ₦550 billion ($339.2 million) capital-raising includes a rights issue of ₦150 billion ($92.5 million) and a ₦400 billion ($246.7 million) debt instrument. Shareholders of the company also authorised the board “to raise additional equity capital of up to ₦150 billion ($92.5 million) by way of a rights issue or offer for subscription on such terms, tranches, conditions and dates as may be determined by the directors.”

Wema Bank, with a national banking licence, is concluding its pre-issuance processes to raise ₦200 billion ($123.3 million) in new equity funds, in a bid to preserve the 79-year-old bank as a standalone entity post-recapitalisation. With a share capital and share premium of ₦15.13 billion ($9.33 million), the venture reportedly has one of the smallest starting points among Nigerian banks.

“In March 2024, the CBN released its review of the minimum capital requirements for commercial, merchant, and non-interest banks. It increased the minimum capital for commercial banks with an international affiliation, otherwise known as mega banks, to ₦500 billion ($308 million); for commercial banks with national authorisation, to ₦200 billion ($123.3 million); and for commercial banks with a regional licence, to ₦50 billion ($30.8 million). Other new thresholds apply to merchant banks at ₦50 billion ($30.84 million); non-interest banks with a national licence at ₦20 billion ($12.33 million); and any non-interest bank with a regional licence will now be required to have ₦10 billion ($6.16 million) minimum capital. The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on 31 March 2026,” African Banker concluded.

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The lawsuit alleges that Binance has avoided paying taxes on its local profits and that its operations in Nigeria have seriously harmed the country’s economy.

Nigeria is taking a daring step in regulating its quickly expanding cryptocurrency industry and holding foreign operators responsible.

Court documents state that the government is requesting USD 2 billion in back taxes for 2022 and 2023 as well as USD 791.5 billion for alleged economic losses.

Authorities detained two Binance executives in 2024 after accusing the company of facilitating naira trading, and they blamed Binance for Nigeria’s currency problems.

Although Binance, which is not registered in Nigeria, has not yet commented, it has previously declared that it would work with the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) of Nigeria to address potential historical tax liabilities.

Because of its “significant economic presence” in the nation, according to the FIRS, Binance is subject to corporate income taxes, a 10% yearly penalty, and a 26.75% interest rate on overdue taxes based on Nigeria’s lending rate.

The cryptocurrency exchange is already facing four tax evasion-related charges, including non-compliance with tax return filings, corporate income tax, and failure to pay value-added tax (VAT).

Additionally, it was charged with allowing users to use its platform to avoid paying taxes. In March 2024, in response to increased scrutiny, Binance suspended all naira transactions and is still contesting the accusations.

Nigeria’s anti-corruption agency has also filed separate money laundering accusations against the company, which it has continuously refuted.

In a related development, Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan is the target of an A1 billion defamation lawsuit brought by Philip Agbese, a member of Nigeria’s House of Representatives.

Agbese claimed that Gambaryan had harmed his reputation by unjustly linking him and two other lawmakers to a USD 150 million bribery scandal.

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The banking industry’s resilience is demonstrated by data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), which indicates that profits have increased from $1.09 billion during the same period last year.

CBK Governor Kamau Thugge claims that March was the banks’ best-performing month, with pre-tax profits hitting $184 million.

On the other hand, August saw the lowest profits of $119 million, the only month since January when profits fell below $136 million. Despite this minor decline, the banking industry has continued to grow while other economic sectors have experienced severe disruptions.

Kenya had a difficult year, marked by challenges such as severe flooding and rain from March to June, political turmoil with anti-government demonstrations in June and July, and limited liquidity.

Despite challenges, banks have shown resilience, with the finance and insurance industry expanding by 7% in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

However, in the second quarter, this growth slowed to 5.1%. According to the CBK, the banking industry will expand by 6% for the entire year, which is the slowest growth since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the economy in 2020, when growth was only 5.9%.

The general economic outlook seems more muted. The CBK has revised its prediction for the growth of the national economy from 5.4% to 5.1%. This change follows a slowdown in the second quarter, when growth slowed to 4.6% compared to 5.6% during the same time last year. Lending has decreased, which has also affected Kenyan banks.

The loan book for this sector was $27.2 billion at the end of August, a $1 billion decrease from $28.2 billion at the end of 2023. As the value of the Kenyan shilling increased relative to the United States dollar, this indicates both a decrease in lending and a depreciation of loans denominated in dollars.

The expansion of private sector credit has decreased dramatically; in August, it was only 1.3%, the lowest level in over five years. At the same time, the non-performing loan ratio rose to 16.7%, the highest level in 18 years. High credit costs have coincided with an increase in defaults and a decrease in borrowing. In February 2024, Kenya’s benchmark lending rate reached a 12-year high of 13%.

The CBK implemented consecutive reductions to the benchmark rate, bringing it down to 12%, in an effort to alleviate the burden on borrowers in response to these economic pressures. Reviving economic activity and encouraging borrowing are the goals of this.

In a statement, CBK said, “The Monetary Policy Committee noted the sharp deceleration in private sector credit and the slowdown in economic growth during the second quarter of 2024. It concluded that there was scope for further easing of monetary policy to boost economic activity while ensuring exchange rate stability.”

The performance of the industry will still be strongly correlated with more general economic developments, such as initiatives to control inflation, exchange rate swings, and international financial circumstances.

Strong security over PoS rollout

Network International, a Middle Eastern and African digital commerce enabler, has reaffirmed its commitment to ensuring strong cybersecurity measures as it launches new payment solutions in Kenya.

Judy Waruiru, its Regional Managing Director for East and South Africa, said, “We are introducing our point-of-sale (POS) solutions as part of our strategy to enter the in-person payments market in Kenya, a key hub for East Africa.”

Network International is providing merchants with new point-of-sale solutions at no cost as part of this rollout, enabling companies of all sizes to conveniently accept payments in-store or while on the go.

In order to accommodate a variety of payment preferences, customers will also have the option to pay with cards or mobile wallets. As the number of digital transactions in the area rises, the business is expanding its service portfolio and addressing growing concerns about payment system security.

During an interaction with African Banker, Paul Mutethia, Head of Commercial at Network International Kenya, said, “The risks in cyberspace have increased, especially Denial of Service, malicious codes, botnets, and bugs which hamper operations. We secure our internal systems when they interact with the external environment. Our transactions are encrypted, and all our solutions are secure. We ensure there is no exposure to cyber-attacks because we hold sensitive customer data.”

He revealed that there is a dedicated department within the company that handles threat management and cyberspace monitoring. It would be better to close the business if you don’t make any investments in cybersecurity.

According to data from the Central Bank of Kenya, there are only slightly more than 55,000 point-of-sale machines in the country. This is insignificant when you consider that the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics reports that there are 7.4 million registered micro, small, and medium-sized businesses (MSMEs). This reveals a serious weakness in the infrastructure for digital payments for companies across the nation.

The most recent products from Network International include contactless payment systems, improved mobile payment gateways, and e-commerce solutions designed to increase convenience while upholding strict security regulations.

JPMorgan Chase eyes presence in Nairobi

JPMorgan Chase, the biggest bank in the world by market capitalisation, is expanding in Africa, with plans to open an office in Nairobi, Kenya.

The bank is the largest lender in the United States, with $4 trillion in assets and operations in more than 100 countries.

It received an operating license from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) just days before Jamie Dimon, the CEO of the bank, travelled to the country. The action is part of the bank’s strategy for global expansion and demonstrates its increasing interest in making investments in the African market.

The bank has identified Africa, which has the youngest population in the world, as a key growth region due to its fintech innovations and the rise in institutional bankers.

In October 2024, JPMorgan Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon travelled to Kenya as part of a trip to Africa that also included stops in South Africa and Nigeria.

“We are opening our first branch in Kenya, which we are really happy to do. We want to add a country or two in Africa every couple of years or so. And when you do it, you are basically covering the government, maybe some big government enterprises, and the multinationals that are going in there with traditional banking services,” Jamie Dimon said during an event in Nigeria.

Sailepu Montet, a former executive at CBK, has been appointed as the bank’s new Country Manager for Kenya. He has more than 20 years of banking experience and a solid foundation in financial markets from both the public and private sectors.

According to Dimon, the bank’s primary areas of interest are treasury services, commercial and investment banking, and possibly some lending in Kenya. Nevertheless, it does not currently have any plans to provide asset and wealth management services in the country, which are already offered in Nigeria and South Africa.

“We are not doing asset and wealth management now, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the next few years,” Dimon added.

Nairobi was selected as the site for JPMorgan Chase’s office because of its growing prominence as a technology hub and its status as the gateway to the wider East African market, which makes it a desirable location for companies wishing to grow throughout the region.

Ten international banks, including Bank of China, Access Bank of Nigeria, Bank of Kigali, First Rand Bank and Nedbank of South Africa, Rabobank of Mauritius, and French lender Societe Generale, have representative offices in Nairobi.

The bank must, however, differentiate its offerings in various markets, such as Kenya, where regional and local lenders are well-represented. There are 46 commercial banks in the nation, providing services to 55 million people.

Nigerian banks go big

One of Nigeria’s leading commercial banks, First Bank, is now planning to expand to at least three African countries in its next growth phase, starting in 2025.

According to the Deputy Managing Director of the bank, Ini Ebong, the countries being targeted include Ethiopia, Angola, Cameroon, and Ivory Coast.

He asserted that there are growing opportunities in markets across the African continent, similar to “what we saw in the early 2000s in some of the larger African markets. We believe it is an opportune time to take part in this phase of growth.”

In December 2024, the Ethiopian parliament passed a law that allows foreign banks to open subsidiaries in Ethiopia. Foreign firms will only be allowed to own 49% of shares.

Also, during a panel session at the recently concluded Africa Financial Industry Summit, Ethiopia’s central bank governor, Mamo Mihretu, said the country had been working on the legislation that would finally open the banking sector to foreign competition over the past year.

FirstBank, which has been operating in Nigeria for 130 years, began establishing subsidiaries in other African markets in 2011 when it acquired Banque International de Credit, one of the leading banks in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In November 2013, it acquired subsidiaries of International Commercial Bank Financial Group Holdings AG (ICBFGH) in The Gambia, Sierra Leone, Ghana, and Guinea. It purchased ICB Senegal the following year, completing its acquisition of West African assets and operations of ICBFGH. FirstBank also has operations in London and Paris, France, as well as a representative office in Beijing, China.

In January 2025, news emerged about Bidvest Bank being sold to Nigerian-based Access Bank, which is set to expand the latter’s operations in South Africa substantially. Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed Bidvest is now eyeing the disposal of 100% of its holdings to Access Bank.

Bidvest is expected to raise R2.8 billion from the sale, which will then be used to settle its existing debt. Access Bank, on the other hand, plans to implement Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) ownership, including an Employee Stock Ownership Plan. The acquisition is expected to close in the second half of 2025, subject to regulatory approvals in South Africa and Nigeria.

The Bidvest Bank book, which mainly consists of leased assets, loans and advances, totalled R6 billion in December, and was funded by deposits of R8 billion. In its most recent financial year, Bidvest Bank generated a trading profit of R371 million and an operating income of R377 million.

Speaking of Access Bank, the largest lender in Nigeria by assets, it has established itself as a full-service bank with over 60 million customers globally across three continents, serving three principal segments: retail, business, commercial, and corporate.

Following the acquisition, Bidvest Bank is set to be merged with Access Bank’s existing South African subsidiary to create an enlarged platform to anchor the regional growth strategy for the SADC region.

Using Bidvest Bank’s local capabilities and its established pan-African presence, Access Bank now hopes to have increased capacity for intra- and inter-Africa trade, connect businesses, and create new opportunities for regional integration.

The Nigerian-based company noted that South Africa’s banking sector is the largest in Africa, with a combined tier-one capital exceeding $42.2 billion in 2022. Despite a tough operating environment, the industry still achieved headline earnings growth of 2.5% year-on-year and maintained strong profitability (ROE of 17%) in the first half of 2024. Access Bank will now leverage the latest acquisition to strengthen its business and SME banking as well as its foreign exchange services, while also introducing new services tailored to the South African market.

Access Bank has already been operating in South Africa since 2021 after it acquired Grobank Limited. Grobank, which was previously known as Bank of Athens, was primarily focused on agriculture before Access Bank transformed it into a retail banking operation. The group currently offers personal, business, and corporate banking in South Africa.

Banks embrace WhatsApp banking

In order to process payments more quickly and interact with customers more effectively, Kenyan banks are increasingly using WhatsApp banking. Conversational banking is encouraged by this model, which also streamlines customer journeys and improves user intuitiveness.

Kenya’s Housing Finance Group, commonly referred to as HF Group, became the first major bank in the country to deploy WhatsApp banking in 2019.

HF Group CEO Robert Kibaara said, “Customers can simply add HF’s WhatsApp phone number to begin a secure banking chat session.”

Since 2019, the KCB Group, Kenya’s biggest bank by assets, has also adopted WhatsApp banking. KCB hopes to improve its communications by utilising widely used messaging platforms as part of a larger plan to offer individualised services.

A subsidiary of South Africa’s Absa Group, Absa Bank Kenya, followed suit in 2021 by launching the “Abby” WhatsApp banking service.

A Mumbai doctor’s loss of $2,000 from his WhatsApp wallet raised cybersecurity concerns, while many Kenyan consumers were ecstatic about the new banking model at the time.

“We have put up stringent measures to make WhatsApp banking secure for everyone. We have several security layers on the platform,” the bank’s head of digital channels, Andrew Mwithiga, told African Banker.

In 2022, Equity Group, which has the largest customer base in Kenya, introduced the Equity Virtual Assistant, a WhatsApp banking platform. With its open banking model, I&M Bank has also entered the WhatsApp banking space, initially providing customer service for non-transactional enquiries.

Through its AI-powered chatbot, Zuri, M-Pesa, the top mobile money platform in the world, has integrated WhatsApp banking since 2020. In Kenya, M-Pesa is used by more than 95% of households.

According to Statista, as of January 2024, 86% of Kenyan internet users were using WhatsApp, making it the most popular messaging app in the country. In Kenya, there were 7.9 million WhatsApp users as of 2023.

Meanwhile, an €8.51 million loan from the African Development Bank has been approved for Senegal’s “Programme to Promote Efficient Lighting Lamps” (PPLEEF), a groundbreaking project aimed at promoting energy efficiency in the nation. This establishes a new standard for sustainable development in Africa and is the bank’s first entirely focused demand-side energy efficiency investment project.

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This airline crisis was just the tip of the iceberg. The reality is that Africa has become a hot zone of suffering for multinational corporations. The main culprit? Weak local currencies. These currencies made repatriating profits a nightmare. Assets held by local subsidiaries lost value. Unlike Emirates, which chose to make noise, most multinationals packed up and left without much fuss. Others, unable to leave entirely, have scaled back their operations, hoping to minimise their losses.

Irmgard Erasmus, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, said, “The high cost of doing business, bureaucratic red tape, and the looming risk of further currency devaluations have rendered operations in Africa unprofitable.”

Across Africa, the currency crisis is spreading. South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, Zambia, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe are all facing the brunt of it. Egypt’s pound, for example, has lost over two-thirds of its value since early 2022. In 2023, Nigeria’s naira was ranked among the worst-performing currencies globally, having depreciated by 49.4%.

Zimbabwe has fared no better. Its dollar has lost over 70% of its value on the official market since January 2024. Traders have abandoned it, favouring US dollars. In response, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe launched a new currency, the ZiG, backed by gold reserves and foreign currencies. But for ordinary citizens, the shift has not brought immediate relief. Many are struggling with rising prices and diminishing purchasing power, with basic commodities slipping further out of reach.

Out of Africa

The currency crisis has led to widespread suffering and sleepless nights for policymakers. For foreign companies, the impact has been devastating. Many have found it impossible to endure the economic pain. UK’s financial conglomerate Atlas Mara cited currency volatility as a key factor in its 2021 decision to exit Africa, reporting a staggering $145 million decline in the dollar value of its assets due to depreciating local currencies.

Barclays Bank, Procter & Gamble, GlaxoSmithKline, Cadbury, Eveready, Bayer, Nestle, and Unilever have all exited or drastically scaled down operations. Although other factors have been involved, weak currencies were the common denominator.

Foreign investors in Africa’s capital markets are also feeling the pain. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange saw $53 billion in foreign investment outflows over the past eight years. In 2023 alone, equities worth $8.3 billion were dumped. In Kenya, the situation has been similar: foreign investors sold $17 million worth of stocks in the first quarter of 2024.
The biggest hit for investors is not just repatriation issues; it’s the conversion loss when weak African currencies are exchanged for dollars or pounds.

Jonathan Munemo, an economics professor at Salisbury University, said, “The exits and outflows are a sign of how quickly foreign investors will flee when a cratering currency shakes their confidence.”

The causes of this crisis are both internal and external. Structural imbalances within countries are coupled with pressures from the outside. Tight global funding conditions, geopolitical risks, and aggressive rate hikes by the United States Federal Reserve since March 2022 have all played a role. The result? The dollar soared, and African currencies dived. Many countries are stuck in a cycle of dependency, reliant on external borrowing to stay afloat, with each new loan increasing vulnerability.

Turning up the heat

Global food and energy prices soared due to the war in Ukraine, adding more fuel to Africa’s inflation fire. High debt loads meant countries spent dwindling revenues on costly debt repayments. About 40% of Africa’s public debt is external, and over 60% is in US dollars. Countries like Kenya, burdened with an $82 billion public debt, have faced persistent deficits and shrinking reserves.

Between March 2022 and December 2023, the Kenyan shilling fell by 22% against the dollar. The decline only stopped after Kenya’s government concluded a buyback operation on a maturing $2 billion Eurobond in early 2024.

The broader impact of these conditions has been devastating for ordinary citizens. Inflation has eroded purchasing power, with prices for staples like bread, cooking oil, and fuel surging across the continent. In Ghana, the inflation rate hit 54% in late 2023, and many households have had to make difficult choices: cutting back on meals, delaying healthcare, and even pulling children out of school to save money.

The depreciation of currencies has forced foreign companies to rethink their African investments. Hasty actions by governments to stabilise domestic currencies have, in many cases, made things worse. Risks associated with repatriation are acute, especially in countries with rigid forex regimes. Even in nations with flexible regimes, currency convertibility remains a thorny issue.

Desperation has driven many African governments to take extreme measures. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has pursued reform policies such as unifying exchange rates and allowing market forces to determine the exchange rate. His government aims to raise $10 billion to boost foreign exchange liquidity. These reforms have also included subsidy removal and public sector cost-cutting, moves that have made life tougher for ordinary Nigerians in the short term but aim to restore economic balance in the future.

Egypt, too, has been forced to acknowledge that economic transformation requires painful sacrifices. The country adopted a flexible exchange rate to access an $8 billion IMF bailout. Moreover, it secured $35 billion from the UAE, $7 billion from the European Union, and $6 billion from the World Bank.

These funds eased Egypt’s forex crunch and allowed the pound to float more freely. But the effects on the ground have been mixed; while foreign reserves have stabilised, the impact on inflation and the cost of living has been severe. Many Egyptians are finding it hard to afford necessities like bread and electricity.

Hard road ahead

The efforts to fix structural issues, such as liquidity problems, market distortions, and a lack of transparency in forex markets, have yielded mixed results. Nigeria’s naira took a turn for the better in early 2024, becoming one of the world’s best-performing currencies, rising 12% in April after a 14% rise in March, according to Goldman Sachs.

However, it’s a hard road ahead. Many African countries are willing to accept tough measures for long-term currency stability. Ethiopia, for instance, still clings to a rigid forex regime. As a result, foreign interest in Ethiopia’s ambitious privatisation and liberalisation plans remains lukewarm.

The government has tried to incentivise investment, in September 2023, the National Bank of Ethiopia approved offshore accounts for strategic investors, making it easier for them to manage their funds and guaranteeing currency convertibility for dividends and loans.

Despite these initiatives, progress has been slow. Ethiopia’s economy remains under pressure, and the reluctance to fully open up its forex market is holding back potential growth. Businesses continue to struggle with access to foreign currency, which has hindered imports of essential goods and stunted industrial activity. Meanwhile, inflation in Ethiopia climbed to 30% by early 2024, driven by rising food prices and a depreciating birr.

The parallel forex market is thriving across Africa. In some countries, it’s a lifeline, offering better rates than official exchanges. While the black market may provide a crucial source of foreign exchange, it also undermines stability.

When restrictions are imposed to stabilise exchange rates, companies and individuals look for ways around them. This fuels black market activity.

That entanglement with the dollar, and other hard currencies, has caused tremendous suffering for Africa. This is why leaders, including Kenya’s William Ruto, are calling for de-dollarisation and the development of local currency debt markets. There is a belief that advanced economies, in pursuit of stability, often ignore how their actions create havoc for developing nations. Borrowing in their currencies would shield African nations from volatile exchange rates and the impact of rising global interest rates. But this is easier said than done.

A lack of deep financial markets, political instability, and the sheer scale of existing foreign-denominated debt make de-dollarisation a daunting task. Still, some progress is being made. In 2024, Nigeria announced plans to issue more bonds in naira rather than in dollars, attempting to wean itself off foreign dependency. Ghana is also exploring options to tap into domestic capital markets to finance public projects.

Moving forward

To address this crisis, Africa will need support and must continue demonstrating the resilience it has always shown. Leaders must make tough decisions, often unpopular ones, to bring stability. Citizens must keep adapting, keep working, and keep believing that better times will come. And the rest of the world? It must not look away. Africa’s struggle is a shared challenge, one that demands a collective response.

International support must go beyond loans and aid. There is a need for technology transfer, capacity building, and fairer trade practices that allow African economies to flourish. The international community must help create an environment where African nations can stand on their own, reduce their debt burden, and build resilient economies.

Africa’s currencies may be shaky, but its spirit remains unbroken. It is this resilience that will ultimately prevail, because it always has. Within the hardship lies an opportunity for change, a chance for a more balanced and just global economy, where no nation is so vulnerable to another’s economic whims.

These nations are now taking steps to boost regional trade and reduce dependency on foreign goods. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2021, aims to create the largest free trade area in the world by connecting over 1.3 billion people. This initiative could be a game-changer, reducing reliance on external markets and fostering intra-continental economic resilience.

However, for AfCFTA to fulfil its promise, political will and infrastructure development must align to remove trade barriers and streamline customs processes.

If successful, such initiatives could allow African economies to diversify, boosting manufacturing and value-added services that have long lagged. For now, Africa remains at a crossroads, one path leads to deeper crisis and greater dependency, while the other points toward sustainable development and self-sufficiency. The choice will depend on the decisions made by its leaders and the support provided by the global community.

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As a result, these members are starting to worry. The association’s Director General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, voiced the concerns during the 52nd Annual General Meeting (AGM) media briefing recently in Lagos.

He said that the new electricity tariff’s unviability poses a serious threat to the industry in Nigeria, with over 2,500 members fearing for the future of their companies.

He conveyed his concerns about what would happen if these companies were forced to close due to the development and how that would affect the overall state of the economy.

Therefore, Kadir urged the federal government to step in and subsidise a significant portion of the cost for members, just as it had done in the country’s post-secondary institutions, pointing out that many businesses would not handle the current tariff.

“We wouldn’t mind if we were made to pay a 100% increase. But hiking the electricity tariff by 250% for manufacturers is not just done. It is not sustainable. Many of our members cannot afford it. Some are even thinking of shutting down. But you can imagine what would happen if this number of businesses shut down. Definitely, that would not be in tune with the President’s economic agenda,” he added.

Speaking about the association’s upcoming AGM, President Otunba Francis Meshioye said that the three-day event, scheduled for October 22–24, provides a great opportunity for the association to further its advocacy mandate.

One of the highlights of the three-day event, he said, is the Adeola Odutola Lecture, which is currently in its fourth edition.

Mr. Dot Samaila Zubairu, the President and CEO of the Africa Finance Corporation, will address the imperatives of an intentional development of the manufacturing sector as the event’s guest speaker.

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