The analysis suggested that the shift had been driven by doubts among labour voters who backed leave originally. The trend is most observable in the north of England and Wales, the labour heartlands in which the sentiment appears to be changin. This development will further pur pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to soften the party’s opposition to reconsidering Britain’s EU departure.

The research was compiled by modelling two YouGov polls of more than 15000 people total—conducted before and after British prime minister Theresa May published her proposed Brexit deal on July 6. The polls were combined with the detailed census information and data from the Office for National Statistics to come to the conclusion.

A total of 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales were examined for the study. It was found that 112 had switched from leave to remain. The new analysis suggested there are now 341 seats with majority remain support, up from 229 seats at the referendum. One seat has switched support in Scotland and 97 have switched in England, while 14 of the 40 seats in Wales have changed from leave to remain. Overall, the model puts remain on 53% support, with 47% backing leave.

Among the constituencies to switch from leave to remain, most significantly– is that of Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary and face of the leave campaign itself. Support for remain in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency has risen from 43.6% to 51.4%, according to the new model.

Surrey Heath, the constituency of the other Leave figurehead, Michael Gove, also emerged as having a pro-remain majority. Support for remain increased from 48% in 2016 to 50.2%. There was also a 12.8 point swing towards remain in shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s seat of Hayes and Harlington.

The seats of three pro-Leave Labour MPs switched to remain. Birkenhead, Frank Field’s constituency, now has a 58.4% majority in favour of remain. Graham Stringer’s Blackley and Broughton constituency now has a 59% in favour of remain. Kelvin Hopkins’s Luton North seat now has 53.1% backing remain.

Eloise Todd, the chief executive of Best for Britain, stated: “This groundbreaking research shows that Brexit is still not inevitable. People across the UK have witnessed the last two years of uncertainty with dismay and are thinking differently – 112 constituencies have switched to majorities that back staying in our current bespoke deal with the EU.

“The sands of public opinion are shifting and politicians risk falling behind. Our research shows that the deal must be put to the people. Westminster should legislate for a people’s vote on the Brexit terms, giving the public the option to stay and build our future on our current deal with the EU.” he added.

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Kamilia Lahrichi

October 27, 2014: Left-leaning president Dilma Rousseff won the election in recession-hit Brazil on October 26 after one of the most dramatic electoral campaigns.

The country’ first female president turfed out the centrist contender Aécio Neves with about 52% of the vote against 48% for her rival during the second round of voting.

Nearly 100 million people casted their vote in this close race. About 3.5 million assistants oversaw the elections in the world’s second biggest emerging market after China.

The presidential campaign revolved around tacking sluggish growth and high inflation. With a US$2.246 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013, the world’s seventh largest economy grew by only 2.5% last year.

In late August, Brazil slid into recession for the first time since the financial crisis. Its GDP decreased by 0.2% in the first quarter and by 0.6% in the second one. The rating agency Standard & Poor’s thus lowered the country’s credit rating in March 2014.

Former Economy Minister Guido Mantega claimed that weak global recovery from the economic downturn as well as a surplus of public holidays during the 2014 World Cup led to the recession.

Notwithstanding that exports to China suffered a setback, other factors, namely poor macro-economic policies, are to blame too. Indeed, Brazil’s growth has mainly relied on domestic demand.

In addition, consumer prices keep rising quickly in Latin America’s largest economy. Official figures set the number at 6.5% in August 2014, despite the government’s target of below 4.5%.

A bitter contest

Just like a Brazilian telenovela (television drama), multiple twists added turmoil to this mercurial election.

First, Eduardo Campos, a presidential candidate, died in a plane accident about two months before the election.

Marina Silva, his running mate and a popular environmentalist, replaced him three weeks before the poll. Although she was supposed to be Brazil’s next president according to most surveys, she came third – with 22 million votes – and endorsed her rival Mr. Neves.

Finally, an ex-executive of the national oil company Petrobras shed light on a nationwide bribery scheme one week before the election. It involved President Rousseff’s top political allies and a key figure in Mr. Neves’ Social Democratic Party.

Ms. Rousseff acknowledged for the first time wrongdoings in the company.

Brazil is not foreign to corruption scandals. In 2012, in what was coined “the trial of the century,” about 40 prominent legislators, businessmen and high-level policy-makers, including senior members of President Rousseff’s Workers Party (PT), faced prosecution over alleged vote buying.

A legacy of state interventionism

President Rousseff vowed to carry on with her social programs to boost economic growth whereas Mr. Neves, the business-friendly contender, had pledged to focus on trade and fiscal austerity.

Supporters of the newly re-elected president came from the north of the country where most Brazilians receive the government’s financial aid. They were instrumental to her victory.

In contrast, Mr. Neves’ backers belong to the upper strata, especially around Sao Paulo.

Regardless of the popular discontent with President Rousseff’s handling of the World Cup, she “was never out of the game,” explained Glauco Oliveira, an economist in the capital Brasilia and a civil servant with a government’s agency.

“Her approval rates never felt too much even at the peak of the [2013 anti-government] manifestations, though her governmental policies were indeed blamed for bad timing and a lack of priorities,” he said.

President Rousseff’s popularity stems from her significant headway in expanding social welfare programs to the most disadvantaged.

She increased public investment in social services, such as Bolsa Familia (family scholarship in Portuguese) that help financially 14 million low-income households.

Official statistics estimate that 22 million Brazilians have been lifted out of poverty since President Rousseff took office in 2011. Besides, the income per person grew by 2.3% annually during the years her political party led the country.

The middle class significantly expanded to about 40 million in the past decade – a majority for the first time in this election.

The failure of free market

Mr. Neves’ proponents have pointed the finger at President Rousseff’s state interventionism and protectionism. For instance, the government has managed fuel subsidies and electricity through state-owned companies Petrobras and Eletrobras, the electric utilities company.

Equally emblematic of the government’s intrusion in the economy, public banks have grown since the administration of former president Lula, which sparked much debate between the presidential candidates.

The public banking system has boosted public investments and granted credit subsidies to the lower classes.

Yet, investors have been eager to end President Rousseff’s heavy-handed economic policies. “The truth is that this government failed,” said Mr. Neves, in reaction to the country entering in recession. “And it failed principally in its steering of Brazil’s economy.”

The centrist candidate claimed he would tackle the economic lethargy by bringing back the “tripod” of economic policies, namely substantial primary surplus, inflation targeting and floating exchange rate. Brazil relied on this program 20 years ago to give stability to investors.

“The most unpopular economic policies Rousseff [took that] it is worth stressing is the rejection of the macroeconomic tripod which were substituted by lenient fiscal policy, exchange rate controls and loosening of the inflation target,” explained Mr. Oliveira.

Instead, Mr. Neves wanted to make the central bank more independent of the executive power. He developed a reputation for fiscal austerity.

Yet, President Rousseff’s camp has accused Mr. Neves of siding with bankers and industrialists and cutting back social programs for lower classes.

“It is not true that economists that support Mr. Neves are socially insensible,” said Mr. Oliveira. “The candidate made clear that – if elected – he would not extinguish social programs, but he would reformulate and improve them.”

Challenges ahead

Despite the election’s results, boosting economic growth in recession-hit Brazil requires a change of policy.

“In the short run, the government should restore the confidence about its ability to keep the economy stabilised,” said Celso Toledo, Director at LCA, a consulting firm in Sao Paulo.

This involves breaking with the tradition of state interventionism.

“Non-orthodox macroeconomics, protectionism in trade, fiscal profligacy and interventionism in energy policies can be cited among the most unpopular policies from the perspective of investors,” said Mr. Oliveira.

For instance, the government’s regulation of the price of energy prevents from spurring investment in power grids and transmissions, he explained.

“In the long run, we need measures to boost productivity and to reduce the ‘Brazil Cost’,” said Mr. Toledo, in reference to the complex tax system, the rigidity of the labour market and the poor infrastructure.

In particular, fiscal measures to reduce the public debt are key. The next government needs to cut down public expenditure, which accounted for 37.2% of Brazil’s GDP – a high percentage in South America.

“We need more competition, a trustworthy government that does not use the public infrastructure as a means to defend the interests of a special political party,” said Mr. Toledo.

“Brazil was too complacent during the boom years provided by Chinese demand. Now the challenges are bigger,” he pointed out.

Mr. Oliveira forecasted that growth will be weak in 2014 and 2015 will be a year of adjustments – another economic challenge for President’s Rousseff new administration.

More stories:

Uruguay’s presidential election goes to run-off

Bolivia’s Evo Morales wins a third consecutive term

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Kamilia Lahrichi

Oct 27,2014: The two contenders who won Uruguay’s first round of the presidential election on October 26 will not bring about any radical economic change for this small country wedged between two regional heavyweights – Argentina and Brazil.

This nation of 3.4 million people earned the sobriquet “Switzerland of South America” because of its democratic tradition and strong economic growth, a model for its unstable neighbours.

Leandro Zipitría, an Economic Consultant and Professor at the University of Montevideo in Uruguay, explained that Tabare Vazquez, the leftish Broad Front contestant and Lacalle Pou, from the conservative National Party, do not have economic programs notably different than President Jose “Pepe” Mujica’s.

Their political platforms diverge in respect to social policies, namely education and crime reduction.

Mr. Vazquez led the country from 2005 to 2010. He expanded the welfare system to reform the education system and improve working conditions.

Mr. Pou is the son of former president Luis Lacalle. Under the banner “New Hope”, he has reached out mainly to the Uruguayan youth with a focus on education, culture and agriculture.

Following the footsteps of “the most humble” leader

Despite his popularity, President Mujica cannot run for a second mandate because Uruguay’s constitution bars consecutive presidential terms.

He will be remembered as “the poorest” and “the most humble” president due to his austere lifestyle. “Pepe” shunned the lavish presidential mansion and lives in a modest farmhouse on the outskirts of the capital Montevideo with his wife and his three-legged dog.

He gained international renown as he gives away 90% of his salary to charity. He also drives a 25-year-old Volkswagen Beetle.

This 79-year old ex-guerilla was tortured and isolated during 14 years in jail. He was freed in 1985 when Uruguay returned to democracy after more than a decade of dictatorship.

Notwithstanding that the economy has grown significantly during his mandate, the truculent head of state has lambasted rampant consumerism in international summits.

At the United Nations General Assembly in New York in 2013, he said: “it seems that we have been born only to consume, and to consume”.

At the Rio+20 conference in 2012, he asked: “what would happen to this planet if Indians would have the same proportion of cars per household as Germans? How much oxygen would we have left?”

Standing out in Latin America

Despite slowing growth in neighboring countries, affluent Uruguay grew on average by 6.2% from 2004 to 2011, compared to a global average of 2.9% and a Latin American average of 4.5%.

“Uruguay has become a small diamond in a rocky landscape,” noted Claudio Loser, visiting senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, a centre for policy analysis in Washington D.C.

The World Bank sets out that Uruguay’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.4% in 2013. In comparison, the economy of Brazil – Latin America’s largest with 200.4 million people – grew by only 2.5% in 2013.

The South American giant’s GDP reached US$2.246 trillion in 2013 – 40 times Uruguay’s.

While the Argentine and Brazilian economies are highly protectionist, Uruguay is a   “mostly free” marketplace, according to the 2014 Index of Economic Freedom. It assesses the level of economic freedom based on the rule of law, regulatory efficiency, state intervention and open markets.

The Index indicates that Argentina is “repressed” since 2000 – the lowest level of economic freedom. Brazil became “moderately free” for the first time in 2014.

Hence, “Uruguay appears to be the logistical and financial centre of Mercosur,” said Nestor Pablo Aleksink, Executive Director of the Program Argentina Export, an organisation promoting exports, during a press conference in Buenos Aires on October 21.

The Common Market of the South (Mercado Comun del Sur in Spanish) is a free trade bloc and customs union including Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Venezuela. It has a combined GDP of about US$3 trillion.

Uruguayan government officials argue that the country could become a regional door to Asia as China is its biggest export market.

A March 2012 report titled “Uruguay: Economy and Institutions, the Key to Success” released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance points out that the country has the only deep harbours of South America. They operate under a free port regime.

Thanks to its 45 kilometres of paved roads per 1,000 square kilometre, Uruguay has also the most dense highway network in the region.

Sound macroeconomic and investment policies  

Although Uruguay’s economy expanded by only 3.9% in 2012, Mr. Zipitría pointed out to three factors that boosted economic growth in the past decade.

“First, Uruguay has seen an important increase in the price of commodities it exports,” he noted. Exports of soybeans, meat, rice, sulfate chemical wood pulp and wheat more than tripled in the last decade.

In addition, investment increased fivefold in the last 10 years mainly due to massive foreign investment in paper pulp.

“Thirdly, the government has had a pragmatic approach to economics, propelling some important reforms like a new bankruptcy law, a new tax law [and] a non-discretionary tax reduction decree to foster investment,” he concluded.

Uruguay offers a positive investment environment as the tax system is neutral with respect to foreign investors. Also, there are no limits for foreign capital in companies. A 2007 decree incentivises local and foreign investors with income tax cuts for businesses.

Uruguay, hence, regained investment grade status by Fitch Ratings, Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service.

A May 2014 Moody’s Investors Service’s Global Credit Research notes “moderate credit risks, and the country’s reduced vulnerabilities to regional and commodity shocks”. The rating agency forecasts a “steady increase in the investment ratio and productivity gains.”

Yet, a high inflation rate remains a challenge for policy-makers. It stands at 9.1% – well above the central bank’s target of 5% plus to minus 2%.

Slamming the door of Mercosur?

The saying goes: when Brazil or Argentina sneezes, Uruguay catches a cold.

In 2001-2002, Uruguay followed Argentina into crisis because it was commercially tied to the fortune of its ailing neighbour. Uruguay was hit hard: poverty reached 40% and the unemployment rate 20%.

This was caused, in part, by the boom-bust cycle of Argentina’s massive 2001 default, which significantly affected trade flows with its neighbour. The county ran out of cash and faced difficulties in production capacity.

Unlike Argentine, Uruguay handled its recovery efficiently. It achieved macroeconomic stability while tackling its population’s social needs. In fact, it was able to access international credit markets quickly and secured US$1.5 billion from the United States Treasury in 2002.

Uruguay, which today depends less on trade with Argentina, has a robust economy with a well-regulated banking system. It thereby lives up to its reputation as “el país corajudo” (the plucky country in Spanish). Exports to Argentina have fallen from 25% to 4% in a decade.

Uruguay does not rely exclusively on Brazil either so that if the South American giant reduces its demand, Uruguay can strategically reorient its market, explained Minister of Commerce Mario Bergara in September 2014. Uruguay now exports commodities to 140 countries, such as the Netherlands, China and Russia.

In addition to keeping itself safe from unstable neighbors, Uruguay has diversified its goods exports with new segments, namely paper pulp and soybeans.

Thus, “Mercosur has lost its path,” said Mr. Zipitría.

Notwithstanding that the regional free trade zone has sought to boost commerce, discord among member states has stymied economic progress.

“The politics that Argentina is applying today does not favour the process of [regional] integration,” said Mr. Aleksink, in reference to heavy-handed policies to protect the local economy.

Besides, the union of leftist governments in Mercosur appears more ideological than practical.

“Although Uruguay has managed to attract foreign investment, there are some tensions within [the Broad Front] in the government that tends to evaluate international interests in ideological terms, and less in pragmatic terms,” explained Mr. Zipitría.

The political coalition deems trading with foreign countries a “heresy towards Mercosur.”

“If the political direction changes in any of these countries [Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela], maybe the winds could change in Uruguay too,” he added before the presidential election in Brazil on October 26.

Left-leaning president Dilma Rousseff came first before centrist economist Aécio Neves in the race in Brazil

A unique model

Thanks to advanced education and social security systems as well as the legalisation of abortion and gay marriage, Uruguay has pioneered a unique social model in the region.

It was coined “The Netherlands of Latin America” too because of its progressive social laws: Uruguay is the first country on the planet to legalise the production, selling and consumption of marijuana, as part of a groundbreaking experiment.

President Mujica declared that drugs are an “economic power”: drug trafficking exists because there is demand.

Besides, along with its Argentine neighbour, Uruguay has achieved gender development parity. In contrast to most Latin American countries, the nation has one of the lowest perceived levels of corruption in the world.

More stories:

Brazil’s President Rousseff stays in power

Bolivia’s Evo Morales wins a third consecutive term

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