Recto stated that the country will outperform economies in the ASEAN region despite external challenges, with a projected growth rate between 5.8% and 6.3% in 2024. This was stated during the Philippine Economic Briefing in Manila. Even more optimistically, a 5.9% to 6.5% forecast is provided for 2025.

“This trajectory puts us firmly on course to become a trillion-dollar economy in less than a decade. This means that by 2033, our economy will nearly triple in size, placing us in the league of economic giants like China, Japan, India and South Korea,” Recto said, as reported by Zawya.

Going forward, the Philippines is predicted to continue growing faster than the economic superpowers in the Asian region.

“Fast forward to 2075, the Philippines will overtake France to become the 14th largest economy in the world,” Recto noted further.

The objective is achievable with the appropriate policy instruments and the government’s growth-promoting initiatives.

“We will continue bolstering growth by arresting inflation through a whole-of-government approach. Ensuring food security is our top priority,” he said.

According to the most recent data available from the Philippine Statistics Authority, the economy grew by 5.7% in the first quarter, which was slightly faster than the 5.5% growth in the fourth quarter but still fell short of the government’s target range of 6% to 7%.

Recto also mentioned that a growing number of Filipinos, who make up the majority of the labour force in the nation, are employed in formal, steady jobs.

“This is an indication of an expanding middle class and reinforces the Philippines’ path towards becoming an upper-middle-income country next year,” he said.

He stated that this growth will raise the average annual income per person in the country, almost doubling to USD 6,500 by 2030 from USD 3,541 in the previous year.

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This is mainly due to the fact that economic activities were hampered by the coronavirus pandemic, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan last year.

A lockdown was imposed during the month of March to help curb the spread of the Covid-19 virus.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, it was the biggest slump in the government’s quarterly GDP data dating back to 1981.

ING senior economist Nicholas Antonio Mapa told the media, “The Philippine economy crash-landed into recession with the 2Q GDP meltdown showcasing the destructive impact of lockdowns on the consumption-dependent economy.”

“With record-high unemployment expected to climb in the coming months, we do not expect a quick turnaround in consumption behaviour, all the more with COVID-19 cases still on the rise.”

During the month of May, the Philippines Statistics Authority reported that the Philippines Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of this year.

In the last quarter of 2019, the Philippines reported a GDP of 6.7 percent, which was a significant increase from the 5.7 percent reported in the first quarter of last year.

It was the first economic contraction recorded by the Philippines since 1998.

Claire Dennis Mapa, the PSA head and National Statistician and Civil Registrar General, said in a virtual media briefing that the main contributors to the decline were manufacturing; transportation and storage; and accommodation and food service activities.

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In the last quarter of 2019, the Philippines reported a GDP of 6.7 percent, which was a significant increase from the 5.7 percent reported in the first quarter of last year.

However due to the recent lockdown measures introduced by the government to deal with the novel coronavirus pandemic, the country’s GDP has contracted for the first time since 1998.

Claire Dennis Mapa, the PSA head and National Statistician and Civil Registrar General, recently said in a virtual media briefing that the main contributors to the decline were manufacturing; transportation and storage; and accommodation and food service activities.

However, she also added that the service sector posted a growth of 1.4 percent during the same period.

The contraction of the GDP has surprised many, as experts predicted the Philippines’ GDP to contract in the second or third quarter of this year.

A negative GDP growth will be a major cause of concern or many as it will result in the closure of businesses and job losses in the economy.

Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua told the media in an online briefing, “Containing the spread of the virus and saving hundreds of thousands of lives through the imposition of the ECQ (enhanced community quarantine) has come at great cost to the Philippine economy. Even so, our priorities are clear: to protect lives and health of our people.”

The Philippines was the first country to shut financial markets as a preventive measure against the virus. As of today, the country has reported more than 10,000 positive cases of the coronavirus, with 685 deaths.

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The Philippines Economic Update, released today by the World Bank, projects growth of 6.6 percent in 2017 and 6.7 percent in 2018 and 2019.

Steady consumption growth, improved remittances, and higher incomes, as well as an expansion of credit, are the main drivers of growth. Exports are projected to grow at a robust rate as stronger growth is expected in the Philippines’ main trading partners.

“An increase in public spending on infrastructure building is expected to boost investment growth,” said World Bank Lead Economist for the Philippines, Birgit Hansl. “Higher investment growth could push the country’s growth rate towards the upper end of the government’s target of 6.5 to 7.5 percent of GDP, but this is contingent on the public infrastructure program gaining full traction.”

Slightly lower economic growth might slow the pace of poverty reduction, but the report expects poverty reduction to continue as the government’s strategy for more inclusive growth strengthens.

The report also discusses some risks that could threaten growth. The ongoing US Federal Reserve rate hikes could cause further depreciation of the peso and continuing capital outflows. Rising protectionism in some developed countries could also affect remittances and foreign trade. Bottlenecks in the planning and project approval process can also hamper implementation of infrastructure projects.

Commitment to the government’s policy goals of achieving stable inflation, fiscal stability and security will help preserve consumer and business confidence, the report underscored.

In the long term, the report says that attaining peace and development in Mindanao is essential for sustaining progress nationwide.

“The central policy challenge for Mindanao and the rest of the country is how to accelerate inclusive growth, to create more and better jobs and reduce poverty,” said Mara K. Warwick, World Bank Country Director for Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. “This task is more challenging in Mindanao, because of the long-standing armed conflict. While the government and other sectors of society are addressing the key drivers of conflict, programs that create jobs can strengthen the process of peace-building.”

A huge proportion of the country’s poor are in Mindanao, a province that has about 25 percent of the country’s population and 37 percent of the country’s poor. Mindanao is also a major source of the country’s food and farm products. Increasing productivity in this area, the report highlights, could reduce prices for food and other goods across the country and improve the competitiveness of the agriculture sector.

This strategy for job creation, the report says, may anchor on the government’s programs, focusing on:

• Raising agricultural productivity and improving connectivity of the farms to the markets;
• Boosting human development through greater investments in health, education and skills; and
• Building effective institutions in conflict-affected areas for better service delivery.

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