As the 2026 midterm elections approach, all three of those pledges are far from being fulfilled, and the reason is a collision between two of his own decisions. First is the decision to strike Iran, and the second is taxing imports at the highest rate in more than a century.

The consequences are showing up where voters feel them most directly, at the gas pump, in the grocery aisle, and at car dealerships. Surveys show consumer confidence at record lows. If the pain persists into November, Donald Trump’s Republicans could face a serious reckoning at the ballot box.

A war that reignited inflation

In late February, Donald Trump ordered joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Tehran swiftly responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel in the Persian Gulf through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily. That one decision triggered an enormous energy price shock that economists say has reversed much of the hard-won progress the United States made on inflation during 2024 and 2025.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged from about $70 per barrel before the conflict to over $110 at its peak after Iran shut the strait. When Tehran briefly signalled a partial reopening, prices fell below $90, only to climb back above $105 as tensions remained high. The US benchmark, WTI crude, approached $96. As a direct result, US inflation accelerated to 3.3% in March 2026, the highest rate in two years, driven largely by fuel.

The OECD now warns that US headline inflation could hit approximately 4.2% in 2026, up from a previous forecast of just 3%.

The IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has described the situation as a “reversal” of what had been a positive trajectory for prices. Simply put, two years of painful interest-rate increases to bring inflation under control have been significantly set back in a matter of weeks.

Gas prices as political poison

Since the Iran strikes began, pump prices across the United States have risen by roughly 50 cents per gallon, with station price boards changing numbers almost daily in some areas. In California, the average has already crossed five dollars per gallon.

Nationally, analysts expect average US gasoline prices to head toward three dollars fifty if oil stays above $100. The national average was already at $4.16 per gallon on April 8, up from $3.25 just a month earlier, according to AAA data.

Polling shows that voters are angry and anxious. A Reuters/Ipsos survey in early March found that 67% of Americans expect gas prices to get worse over the next year as a result of the Iran campaign.

That fear cuts across party lines. Over 44% of Republicans and 85% of Democrats share it. Only 29% of respondents approved of the strikes at all, and 64% said Trump had never clearly explained what the United States was trying to achieve.

A separate Pew Research survey later in March found that 69% of Americans were worried about rising fuel costs from the conflict. Nearly six in ten Republicans told Pew that gas prices were their biggest concern about the war, while close to eight in ten Democrats said the same.

That bipartisan pain matters enormously heading into November. When a President’s own supporters feel the squeeze at the pump every time they fill their tank, the political shelter that wartime solidarity usually offers starts to crack. Inflation, unlike foreign policy abstractions, is something voters experience personally and remember when they vote.

More than petrol

The disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has inflicted damage well beyond fuel prices. Oil is a raw material for plastics, fertilisers and chemicals, so when its price spikes, the cost of hundreds of everyday products rises in turn. Shipping routes have been disrupted, adding delays and costs throughout global supply chains.

Researchers at the Dallas Federal Reserve modelled the inflation impact depending on how long Hormuz stays restricted. If it remains closed for one quarter, it adds roughly 0.35 percentage points to 2026 inflation.

Two quarters of closure add 0.79 percentage points. Three-quarters would add approximately 1.47 percentage points on top of existing pressures. These figures translate directly into higher prices on goods ranging from groceries to building materials, even if the war itself ends.

OECD economists also note that because of the way prices ripple through supply chains, households will still be feeling the effects in rent, transport costs and consumer goods as they head to the polls in November.

The tariff tax

The Iran shock is not arriving in a vacuum. It is hitting on top of a separate cost increase that Donald Trump himself created. Namely, his sweeping tariff programme, which has imposed taxes on imported goods at levels the United States has not seen in over a hundred years.

When Trump’s second term began, the average effective tariff rate, the actual percentage tax paid on imports, stood at roughly 2.5%. By April 2025, it had jumped to an estimated 27%, the highest in more than a century.

Legal challenges and negotiated deals have since brought it down to approximately 11.8% as of early 2026, with CNN tracking the effective rate at around 16.8% by the end of 2026.

Even at those reduced levels, the tax burden on imported goods is vastly higher than anything Americans faced before Trump’s second term. Initially, companies absorbed most of the extra costs rather than passing them on to shoppers.

In 2025, the US government collected roughly $187 billion more in tariff revenue than in 2024, almost a 200% increase, and businesses covered an estimated 80% of those costs internally. But that cushion is being depleted.

JPMorgan analysts and industry consultants warn that the corporate share of these costs could fall to around 20% in 2026 as pre-tariff stockpiles run out and businesses begin repricing. The bill is now migrating to household budgets.

What does it cost a family

Research by the Centre for American Progress, drawing on Harvard Business School analysis, found that between October 2024 and March 2025, prices of everyday nondurable goods such as cleaning products and toilet paper rose approximately 5%.

Furnishings climbed around 8%. Clothing jumped roughly 14%. A Yale Budget Lab estimate puts the ultimate annual cost to the average US household at approximately $1,700 once tariffs are fully passed through.

Food is now entering the pressure zone as well. Tariff effects typically take 12 to 18 months to work through to consumer prices fully, meaning peak pressure will fall between April and October 2026, right in the heart of election season.

Food prices were already up 2.9% year-on-year in January 2026. Yale’s modelling implies an effective annual food cost increase of around $1,500 for a typical household once tariff effects are fully felt. Combined with higher fuel bills, those numbers become punishing for families already stretched thin after years of post-pandemic inflation.

The sharpest tariff increases fall on metals, vehicles, electrical equipment and computers, raising the cost of cars, appliances and new home construction. Consumer goods with thin margins and heavy import dependence, such as coffee and fresh produce, have seen particularly sharp price swings.

For a middle-income family, the combined effect feels less like an America-first economic strategy and more like being squeezed from every direction at once.

Collapsing confidence

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, one of the most closely watched measures of how Americans feel about the economy, fell to a record low in April 2026. The US dollar has also weakened to its lowest point in four years.

While a weaker dollar helps American exporters, it also makes imported goods more expensive, piling onto the inflation already generated by tariffs and the energy shock. JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon, writing in his annual shareholder letter on April 6, laid out the compounding risk in stark terms.

“Now, because of the war in Iran, we additionally face the potential for significant ongoing oil and commodity price shocks, along with the reshaping of global supply chains, which may lead to stickier inflation and ultimately higher interest rates than markets currently expect,” said the document.

Donald Trump’s standing on the Iran conflict itself remains fragile. The same Reuters/Ipsos poll showing only 29% approval for the strikes found that roughly two-thirds of respondents felt the administration had never given a clear picture of what military victory was supposed to look like. When people see their purchasing power shrinking without a clear benefit to offset that sacrifice, frustration tends to find expression in protest votes, especially in the tightly contested districts that decide control of Congress.

Running out of road

Donald Trump could still seek a diplomatic de-escalation with Iran, but after framing the military campaign as a defining test of American resolve, any visible retreat risks being labelled as capitulation.

He could roll back tariffs to ease household budgets, but that would contradict a central pillar of his economic philosophy and anger the constituencies that have benefited from protection.

The White House has already quietly delayed planned tariffs on some furniture and Italian pasta in early 2026, a move analysts read as political damage control rather than principled policy. Wall Street has coined the nickname “TO,” standing for “Totally Chicken Out,” for the administration’s pattern of pulling back from tariff threats whenever markets or polls react badly, suggesting investors see trade policy as more performative than strategic.

Piecemeal retreats like these, however, may not be sufficient to change how voters feel about their household bills by November.

The Dallas Fed’s research suggests that even a relatively brief Hormuz disruption will keep inflation elevated through the end of 2026. The 12-to-18-month lag for tariff pass-through means price pressures will be near their peak immediately before Election Day.

Independent analysts estimate that Donald Trump’s combined policies will cost typical households between $1,500 and $1,700 per year. Consumer sentiment is already at a record low. Neither has the conflict toppled Iran’s leadership, nor has it delivered the concessions the White House sought.

However, the combined arithmetic of oil shocks and tariff costs is already eroding Trump’s standing at home, and as November approaches, his most dangerous political adversary may not be a foreign one, but the monthly household budget.

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Brent crude futures showed a 6 cents decrease and was priced at $68.40/barrel, after recording a 3 percent jump on Monday. West Texas Intermediate futures also showed an 8 cents decrease, standing at $65.97/barrel, after it was increased to 3.9 percent in the previous session.

Media reports also stated that there have been indirect negotiations going on between the United States and Iran, and those discussions are scheduled to resume in Vienna this week and the UN nuclear agency extended a monitoring agreement about Tehran’s atomic program.

Additionally, there have also been some worries that Iran might start selling oil soon if an agreement happens that lifts UN. and other sanctions on crude exports, especially the ones that decreased the prices earlier. Till now, no such conclusive talk has been reported.

Sophie Griffiths, Market Analyst at OANDA, told the media, “US Secretary of State Blinken poured cold water over the prospect of a revival, stating that there was no indication that Iran is willing to comply with nuclear commitments.”

Even after more than a year, it is still not certain how will the economy revive after the Covid-19 pandemic, and experts point out that there is still a mixed outlook for oil demand. While some parts of Europe and the US are reporting fewer cases each passing day, but other parts of the world, such as India the world’s third-biggest oil importer are still struggling to combat the second wave of the pandemic.

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President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the landmark agreement, signed by the U.S. and five other world powers, remains one of the most consequential foreign policy decisions of his presidency so far.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran will be rigorously enforced and remain in place until the Iranian government radically changes course on Sunday. Emphasising that while the sanctions are an important pillar in US policy towards Iran—the administration is also open to looking beyond them and would “require enormous change” from Tehran.

“We’re hopeful that we can find a way to move forward but it’s going to require enormous change on the part of the Iranian regime,” Pompeo told reporters aboard his plane on his way home from a three-nation trip to South East Asia. “They’ve got to behave like a normal country. That’s the ask. It’s pretty simple,” he added.

Pompeo referred to the Iranian leadership as “bad actors” and stated that Trump is intent on getting them to “behave like a normal country.”

This language is believed to be code for regime change among many US allies, according to two European diplomats involved in negotiations with the Trump administration over how sanctions would be re-imposed.

The sanctions that go back into effect on Monday cover Iranian trade in automobiles and metals, including gold. The US also has banned imports of Iranian products like carpets and pistachios, and has revoked licenses that allowed Iran to purchase US and European aircraft. Iran acquired five new European commercial planes on Sunday before the sales were cut off.

The last and most significant sanctions — those on Iran’s oil sector and central bank — will be restored on November 4. This is crucial because Iranian oil sales are a vital source of hard currency.

The US-Iran nuclear deal in 2015 had lifted international sanctions. This was in exchange for Iran agreeing to restrictions on its nuclear program. While UN inspectors had said that Iran had been complying with the deal, Trump argued that it had not done enough to curb Iran’s malign activity in the region. Trump administration officials also argued that because the US lifting sanctions against Iran as part of the agreement, had in effect stripped Washington of one of its most powerful tools to put penalties on Tehran.

European countries have said that theyy remain committed to the agreement, viewing it as the surest way to safeguard their national security.

One of the European diplomats expressed concerns on the future, referring to worries that the US is eyeing regime change as the sanctions’ end goal. Both diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity, as they were not authorized to brief the media on ongoing negotiations.

Iran would either likely devolve into civil war, if the reimposed sanctions cause the government in Tehran to collapse, a situation very similar to what unfolded in Syria – or be under radical occupation, according to the diplomat. A deepening of Iran’s economic crisis could also lead into an influx of refugees and migrants towards Europe, in a situation once again, very similar to what happened on the hells of the Syrian conflict.

Pompeo noted that the US has long designated Iran as the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism and that it cannot expect to be treated as an equal in the international community until it halts such activities.

“Perhaps that will be the path the Iranians choose to go down,” he said Sunday. “But there’s no evidence today of a change in their behavior.”

In the meantime, he said, “we’re going to enforce the sanctions.”

Supporters of the Iran agreement have long argued that the US departure would alienate European allies who partnered with the US in the negotiations.

We “remain firmly committed to ensuring (the deal) is upheld and we continue to abide by our commitments,” the second European diplomat stated. “If we cannot fulfill these, this risks Iran deciding that it no longer has to abide by the restrictions.”

Iran’s economy has plunged into a downward spiral following Trump’s announcement that the United States was scrapping the nuclear deal. The downturn has sparked waves of protests across the country.

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IFM Correspondent

September 21, 2016: Fed up with delay in getting regulatory approvals, Iran has reduced the number of airplanes it plans to buy from Airbus by six and from Boeing by one. The country’s deputy transport minister said Iran finds it unfair on the part of US to delay what had been promised.

The renewed deal of 112 aircraft, instead of the previously decided 118 airplanes, will be finalised with Airbus in the coming weeks.

“There are six fewer aircraft. These are the ones that were due to be delivered in 2016,” the Iranian official told Reuters, speaking on the sidelines of the CAPA Iran Aviation Finance Summit in Tehran. Boeing, which has also agreed to provide jets to Iran as it emerges from sanctions, may see its deal clipped by one jet to 108 aircraft instead of 109, the Iranian official said.

“The majority of the reduction is for aircraft that were to be delivered this year but have been delayed by regulatory approvals,” says Paul Lyons, strategy director at International Bureau of Aviation.

Iran is expected to get a US licence for aircraft by the end of September. This will help facilitate the purchase of the Airbus and Boeing jets. Approvals were expected by the end of August.

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