Elon Musk-led Tesla looks all set to end two straight years of falling sales after its Q3 ‌deliveries beat Wall Street estimates, along with a rebound in Europe.

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the July-September 2026 period, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 456,896 vehicles, according to data compiled by Visible Alpha.

The EV giant needs 311,448 more deliveries to match 2025’s total, fewer than it has delivered in any quarter since mid-2022.

While the latest sales figures suggest Tesla’s core car business may be regaining momentum, investors will be looking at the bigger picture: Musk’s push into AI, robotaxis, and humanoid robots.

While the EV sales have remained Tesla’s main revenue generator, the automaker’s roughly USD 1.40 trillion ⁠valuation depends heavily on those AI, robotaxis, and humanoid-related ambitions.

While Tesla is about to end its two straight years of sales decline, in the United States, the firm’s deliveries were still expected to fall from a record third quarter in 2025.

The reason is the decision made by the Trump administration last year to scrap a USD 7,500 federal tax credit for EV buyers. Since then, the American EV market has remained tepid.

However, the European sales uptick has compensated for the American slump well.

EU registrations rose by about two-thirds in the January-August period from a year earlier, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).

In Q3, France and Denmark experienced strong registration growth, driven by government incentives, easier year-ago comparisons, and increasing consumer interest in EVs.

In September, Tesla registrations soared 128.3% in Portugal, 61.9% in France, 38.4% in Sweden, and 24.8% in Spain from a year ago, data released by Portugal’s ACAP, French car body PFA, Mobility Sweden, and industry group ANFAC showed.

Registrations also rose 2.2% in Norway and 2.9% in Denmark, Norway’s data compiler OFV and Danish vehicle data platform bilstatistik.dk said.

As per the ACEA, Tesla registrations across the European Union, Britain, and the European Free Trade Association leaped 43.3% between January and August, outpacing the ‌broader ⁠battery-electric vehicle market’s 38.8% growth over the same period.

Tesla continues to rely heavily on its ⁠Model 3 and Model Y to consolidate its European footing against a wide range of offerings provided by the Chinese and EU-based players.

Non-Chinese brands have revealed 27 all-new BEV models ⁠in Europe this year through September, as the vehicle buyers want relief from the ongoing energy shock caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars.

While Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software has been approved ⁠in eight European countries, the technology’s rollout in the continent, in general, has been slow due to heightened regulatory scrutiny.

Tesla has already entered into credit agreements totaling USD 30 billion, including a USD 20 billion delayed draw-term loan facility, with the goal of directing much of the amount toward AI compute infrastructure, solar cell-manufacturing capacity, and a semiconductor fabrication project with SpaceX, as ⁠well as other expansion areas.

Earlier this year, Tesla ⁠forecast its 2026 capital expenditure of more than USD 25 billion, after spending USD 8.53 billion in 2025.

“SpaceX is aiming together with Tesla to do 200 gigawatts of solar production per year,” ⁠CEO Musk said at an event in Washington last week.