According to a survey released by the central bank, Singapore’s economy is expected to expand by 3.6% in 2024, up from a previous estimate of 2.6%. Monetary policy settings are forecast to stay the same at an upcoming review in January 2025.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore polled 25 economists, and their median forecasts predicted growth of 3.1% in the last quarter of 2024 and 2.6% in 2025.
Following third-quarter growth that exceeded projections at 5.4%, the trade ministry increased its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% last month from a previous range of 2.0% to 3.0%.
The MAS is expected to stick to its current monetary policy in its quarterly reviews in January, April, and July, according to the majority of economists polled.
Even though inflation decreased and growth increased in October, the MAS maintained its monetary policy settings.
Since a tightening in October 2022—the fifth consecutive tightening—it has not altered its policy.
Just 33% of respondents anticipate monetary policy to be loosened in January through a decrease in the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate, or S$NEER, down from 50% in the September survey.
Singapore’s central bank determines the direction of the S$NEER’s policy band, which influences the value of the local currency relative to its major trading partners.
Core inflation this year was 2.8%, down from 2.9% anticipated in the September survey, while headline inflation for 2024 was 2.5%, down slightly from that forecast. According to the survey, core inflation in the last quarter of this year was 2.1%.
Compared to a year earlier, core inflation decreased to 2.1% in October, the lowest increase in nearly three years. Both headline and core inflation in 2025 are predicted by the economists polled to be between 1.5% and 1.9%.
Meanwhile, US President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to raise tariffs to as high as 20% on imports from around the world including Singapore.