Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reversed course to inch higher on January 6 after a moderately firm outcome at a same-maturity bond auction. The 10-year JGB yield was up 0.5 basis point (bp) to 2.12%, after falling 1 bp to 2.105% ahead of the auction.
“Despite the current yield level, which is high, the auction outcome was not strong,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, a senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, while interacting with Reuters.
“That is because the market is concerned that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is behind the curve in dealing with the risk of inflation, and it will have to raise the rate higher,” he added.
The 10-year bond yields climbed to a near three-decade high in the previous session, leading to the January 6 auction, as markets braced for further interest rate hikes by the BOJ. The central bank raised its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5% in December 2025, but the yen has struggled to regain ground as markets expect the pace of the BOJ’s rate hikes to remain slow.
A weaker yen, while lifting import costs and fuelling inflation, also reinforces analyst expectations of further interest rate hikes.
“Markets now expect the BOJ’s terminal rate to rise to about 1.7%, based on forward one-year overnight index swaps (OIS) two years ahead, which are pricing in roughly 1.6956%,” Inadome said.
The OIS, a rate for swapping the overnight call rate and a fixed interest rate, provides an effective way to monitor market perceptions about the BOJ’s monetary policy.
“Yields on longer-dated bonds also rose, with the 20-year JGB yield edging up 1.5 bps to 3.06%. The 30-year JGB yield rose 2 bps to 3.475%. The two-year JGB yield inched down 0.5 bp to 1.185%. The five-year yield was flat at 1.595%,” Reuters concluded.