Amid the Venezuela crisis, OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged after a quick meeting that avoided discussion of the geopolitical events affecting several of the hydrocarbon producer group’s members. The eight stakeholders (members), who pump about half the world’s oil, met amid the background of prices falling more than 18% in 2025, the steepest yearly drop since 2020, amid growing oversupply concerns.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE flared in December 2025 over a decade-long conflict in Yemen, when a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government. The crisis triggered the biggest split in decades between the former close allies. And on January 3rd, the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with Donald Trump announcing Washington’s move to take control of the Latin American country’s oil resources. While Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, bigger even than those of OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, its production has plummeted due to years of mismanagement and sanctions.
“Right now, oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty. And OPEC+ is clearly prioritising stability over action,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official, while interacting with Reuters.
The eight OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman, raised oil output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day in 2025, equal to almost 3% of world oil demand, to regain market share.
“The eight members agreed in November 2025 to pause output hikes for January, February and March 2026 due to relatively low demand in the northern hemisphere winter. Sunday’s (January 4) brief online meeting affirmed that policy and did not discuss Venezuela,” one OPEC+ delegate said.
“The eight countries will next meet on February 1,” the source stated.
While the Saudi-UAE and Venezuela episodes will likely dominate OPEC’s 2026 agenda, at some point in time, the group has in the past managed to overcome many internal rifts, such as the Iran–Iraq War, by prioritising market management over political disputes.
Yet the group is facing other crises, with Russian oil exports falling due to American sanctions over its war in Ukraine, apart from Iran facing protests and possible American intervention. Analysts said it is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years, even if American oil majors do invest billions of dollars in Venezuela in 2026.