LNG and natural gas exporters have targeted Turkey as a major prospective growth market because it is one of the fastest-growing power markets in the world. However, the rapid expansion of Turkey’s clean energy sources would disappoint them.
Last month, Turkey’s solar-powered electricity supply surpassed gas-fired electricity output for the first time, thanks to a surge in solar capacity, and the nation’s first nuclear reactor is expected to begin production in the coming months.
To effectively store the excess energy generated by wind and solar farms, especially during high-demand periods, Turkey is rapidly implementing utility-scale battery systems. The country aims to achieve a battery storage capacity of 80 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030.
Turkey’s reliance on gas and other fossil fuels for power generation seems to be decreasing due to the growing supply of clean energy and the expansion of battery storage capacity. As a result, those bullish on the gas market may need to explore other growth opportunities.
Path Of Growth
World Bank data noted that Turkey’s GDP has grown by an average of 4.7% per year since 2019, which is more than four times the growth rate of the Eurozone and almost double the growth rate of the global economy during the same period.
According to Ember data, the nation’s electricity usage increased by 14% between 2019 and 2024, contrasting sharply with the roughly 5% decline in electricity demand throughout the European Union for the same period.
The data further revealed that Turkey’s electricity demand, which exceeded 340 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024, has been primarily driven by government spending on infrastructure as well as the growth of heavy industry and manufacturing.
In recent years, Turkey’s energy consumption has also increased due to the reshoring of several heavy industries from other parts of Europe, such as some German steel and cement production.
Cutting Gas
Despite this consistent growth in power consumption, gas-fired generation has decreased over the last three years, with alternative power sources displacing natural gas in Turkey’s generation system.
According to Ember, 36% of Turkey’s utility electricity supply last year came from coal-fired power plants, making them the nation’s single largest source of electricity.
Key to coal’s staying power has been cheap shipments from Russia, which has struggled to find willing buyers for its energy products since being slapped with sanctions in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine.
Russian coal exporters have lowered their prices relative to other coal vendors in order to guarantee consistent purchases by Turkey’s power suppliers. As a result, they have been able to secure a significant portion of Turkey’s coal purchases since 2022.
In fact, according to statistics from commodity intelligence firm Kpler, Russia has provided almost 88% of Turkey’s coal imports thus far in 2025, up from an average share of 24% from 2018 to 2021.
However, Turkey’s demand for more expensive natural gas has decreased as a result of the consistent supply of inexpensive coal. Last year, gas-fired power plants provided only 19% of the country’s electricity.
Another 22% came from hydro dams, while the next largest sources of electricity in Turkey were wind farms (11%) and solar farms (7%).
Is There A Rebound?
Turkey’s gas-fired power generation increased by 52% in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024, giving bulls in the gas market cause for confidence.
The current gas-fired generation peaks, however, are still below earlier gas-fired production spikes, indicating that Turkey’s power companies are still cautious about depending too much on gas to generate energy.
Clean power supplies are also increasing. Last month, the combined production of solar and wind farms produced a record 30% share of electricity supplies, and solar generation this year has increased by 47% compared to the same period last year.
Additionally, Turkey’s first nuclear power plant is only a few months away from starting production on the first of four planned reactors. Once operational, the Akkuyu plant will provide utilities with a fresh supply of clean power, which can be deployed on command instead of gas or coal power to help balance system needs.
Furthermore, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM), nearly 90% of the approximately 13,000 megawatts (MW) of new power capacity being built or in the pre-construction stage comes from renewable energy sources.
With over 4,800 MW being constructed, nuclear facilities are the single largest source of new capacity in the near-term development pipeline.
According to GEM data, wind farms account for the second-largest percentage of new capacity (2,460 MW), with solar farms coming in third with 1,336 MW.
When finished, clean energy sources will account for more than half of Turkey’s power firms’ total capacity, dominating its near-term development pipeline. This is because only 700 MW of new coal capacity and 890 MW of new gas capacity are being constructed.
As a result, even if Turkey’s power demand growth continues to outperform that of its regional and international counterparts, there is little room for natural gas to make significant gains in the country’s energy mix.