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IF Insights: Decoding the US-Venezuela oil deal, the largest in history

International Finance Business Desk — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:00:45 +0000

Late on Friday (August 28), Donald Trump posted that the United States had entered into what he called the “biggest oil deal” in world history.

Washington, he said, had secured majority American control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in Venezuela, and the arrangement would substantially lower petrol prices for Americans long into the future.

The claim is enormous. The detail, so far, is thin. No text of any agreement has been released, the White House has said little beyond the president’s post, and administration officials initially disagreed among themselves over whether the thing had actually been signed.

ALSO READ | Earthquakes Derail Venezuela’s Escape From Abyss

What settled the question was a statement from Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, who confirmed the accord and framed it as the start of a national recovery.

For a business audience, three things matter here. What the deal actually does. What it says about a country that spent two decades insisting its oil was not for sale. And whether any of it reaches an American petrol pump before voters go to the polls in November.

What has been agreed, and how it is meant to work
The structure is unusual, and that is the most interesting part of it. This is not a purchase of oil, nor a conventional concession round.

According to officials briefed on the arrangement, the US government and an unnamed private operator in Venezuela have formed a new company, and that company has been granted rights to a set of untapped fields for 100 years.

Rodríguez’s statement puts the scope at 17 strategic fields with a proven potential of 65 billion barrels. She said the agreement could pull more than USD 100 billion of investment into the Venezuelan oil industry and generate more than USD 209 billion in tax revenue for Caracas over its life.

On the American side, the United States takes 55% of the new company’s effective output. That figure blends two different things, an equity stake in the vehicle itself and a right to buy crude at cost.

Officials have not yet broken down how much of the 55% comes from each, which is not a trivial gap.

Equity is a claim on profit. Off-take at cost is a claim on physical barrels. They behave very differently on a balance sheet and in a commodity market.

Where those barrels go is also unusual. American purchases are earmarked for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and for the military rather than straight into the commercial pool.

Oversight sits, according to reporting, with the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital, the body that finances projects deemed to serve national defence.

Trump credited Secretary of State Marco Rubio and War Secretary Pete Hegseth with negotiating it alongside Rodríguez.

One official described the resulting entity as the second largest corporate holder of proven reserves anywhere, behind only Saudi Aramco.

On paper that is true. In practice, nobody has yet said who pays for the drilling rigs, the pipelines, the diluent or the refinery repairs, or who the private operator even is. Those are not footnotes. They are the deal.

The quiet death of Venezuelan resource nationalism
None of this would have been legally possible eighteen months ago, and that is the deeper story.

Since Hugo Chavez tightened state control in the mid 2000s, Venezuelan law reserved upstream activity for wholly state-owned entities or for joint ventures in which the state held a controlling stake of at least 60%. Oil sovereignty was not merely policy, it was the founding argument of the Bolivarian project.

That framework collapsed with startling speed. American forces seized then president Nicolas Maduro in a night raid on Caracas in January and flew him to New York to face federal drug trafficking charges.

Three weeks later, on January 29, the National Assembly amended the Organic Hydrocarbons Law, and Rodriguez signed it within two hours of the vote.

Private investors can now conduct exploration and production directly, ending PDVSA’s monopoly on primary activities.

Where a joint venture is used, the state’s minimum share falls from 60% to 50.1%, and private partners can operate fields, market the output and receive sale proceeds even as minority holders.

The implementing regulation followed on July 9, the first comprehensive regulatory overhaul of the Venezuelan oil sector since 1943, and it extended the opening into refining, marketing and distribution. Mining rules were reformed in April.

An electricity overhaul is in the legislature. The Assembly passed the hydrocarbons amendment unanimously, which tells you something about how thoroughly the old consensus has evaporated, and how little room the interim government had to manoeuvre.

Not everyone in Caracas is applauding. Ricardo Hausmann, the Harvard economist and former Venezuelan planning minister, called the new deal shameful and argued that Rodríguez has neither the legitimacy nor the constitutional power to bind the country to it.

Ordinary Venezuelans interviewed after the announcement made a blunter version of the same point, that the resources are being traded for political survival.

That legitimacy question is a live commercial risk, because a contract signed by an interim administration installed after a foreign military operation is a contract that a future government may decline to honour.

The OPEC question
Days before the oil deal surfaced, Bloomberg reported that Venezuela was closely examining plans to leave OPEC, and that the idea had come up in conversations with American officials. No final decision has been taken.

The symbolism would be considerable. Venezuela supplied the original idea for the cartel and helped found it in 1960 alongside Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The practical effect on supply, though, is close to nil in the near term.

Venezuelan output has been so degraded that the country currently sits outside the group’s production limits altogether. Leaving would free Caracas from a ceiling it does not actually face.

The cumulative pattern is what should worry OPEC. Angola walked out in 2024. The United Arab Emirates left earlier this year after prolonged frustration that quotas were capping its expanded capacity. Iraq warned in June that it might follow if a capacity review does not deliver a larger allowance.

By one estimate, the UAE and Venezuela together would strip more than five million barrels a day of capability from the group, roughly 17% of what core members held at the start of 2026. An organisation that loses members during a price spike is an organisation whose discipline is being tested from both directions.

Is that a foreign policy win for Washington? On its own terms, plainly yes. Successive American administrations have objected to a producer cartel setting prices and rationing output, and Trump has been more explicit about it than most.

A founding member defecting into an American commercial orbit, while a second major producer has already gone and a third is grumbling, is the sort of erosion that no amount of anti-cartel rhetoric could buy.

The caveat is that a weaker OPEC is not automatically a cheaper barrel. The group’s other function is holding spare capacity that can be released when supply is disrupted.

Fragment that and you get a market with fewer shock absorbers, which cuts both ways depending on whether the next surprise is a glut or a war.

The midterm arithmetic
Which brings us to the politics, because that is clearly what the timing is about.

American petrol averaged about USD 4.08 a gallon at the end of August, against USD 3.20 at the same point in 2025.

The cause is not Venezuela. It is the war with Iran, which began on February 28, has now passed the six month mark, and has choked Persian Gulf shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude went above USD 100 a barrel within days of the first strikes. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its August report that inventory buffers are depleting and that the urgency of reopening the strait has increased.

For a President elected on affordability, that is a serious exposure. Polling this summer found 63% of Americans blaming the Iran war for higher pump prices, and 46% saying petrol costs would shape how they vote in November.

Trump has repeatedly promised that oil will drop like a rock once the war ends. The war is not ending.

So the Venezuela announcement functions as a supply-side answer to a demand-side political problem. The difficulty is that it cannot deliver on the relevant timescale.

Amy Myers Jaffe of New York University put it plainly, that the deal may help in the long run but will do nothing for the price at the pump this weekend.

Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners noted that Venezuela has genuine headroom, having once produced more than 2.5 million barrels a day above current levels, but that deploying capital at this scale takes many years.

The physical evidence supports the sceptics. At the end of July, Venezuela had two active onshore drilling rigs. Almost all of this year’s production growth has come from Chevron optimising existing wells rather than from new drilling, and optimisation has a ceiling.

Capital Economics cautioned that the reserve figures inherited from the Chavez era may be inflated, and that even with legal and security guarantees American companies may find better commercial opportunities elsewhere.

The likely effect before November, then, is sentiment rather than supply. A large headline number, a story about American energy dominance in the hemisphere, and possibly some softening in futures if traders believe the long-run supply picture has changed.

Democrats are already attacking from the other side, with Senator Tim Kaine calling it corruption at epic scale and questioning whether prices will fall at all.

Republicans such as Senator Bernie Moreno are selling it as a win for both countries.

Barrels vote slowly. Voters do not.

The post IF Insights: Decoding the US-Venezuela oil deal, the largest in history appeared first on International Finance.

Earthquakes Derail Venezuela’s Escape From Abyss

International Finance Business Desk — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 09:51:50 +0000

In May 2026, four months after the Washington-choreographed removal of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, resumed their formal relations with the Latin American nation, in a sharp reversal from the 2019 episode, when the two global monetary bodies suspended dealings with Caracas due to a major dispute over the nation’s ‘legitimate leadership’, and the government’s refusal to provide mandatory, transparent economic data.

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez has asked IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva for access to $5 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs) that Venezuela holds. This would be used for infrastructure, electricity, and water improvements.

The new administration has also opened the energy sector to foreign investment. Shell will develop the Loran field, which had been abandoned for 23 years, and comprises seven natural gas deposits, with six of them straddling the maritime border with Trinidad and Tobago. As per Rodriguez, the project would allow Venezuela ‘to take a very important step forward in its gas development, and also as a gas exporter’.

After taking over Venezuela’s reigns post the US-staged arrest of controversial president Nicholas Maduro, the Rodriguez government has identified the Latin American country’s huge energy reserves as one of the routes to help the nation escape its economic abyss. Agreements have been signed with several of the world’s leading oil companies, including Britain’s BP and Spain’s Repsol.

Chavismo: A period of mixed opportunities

The 1999–2013 phase under Hugo Chavez was all about a massive, oil-fuelled expansion of social spending and poverty reduction, coupled with the erosion of long-term economic stability through nationalisations, rigid price controls, and extreme dependence on petroleum exports.

Under Chavez, Venezuela benefited from a historic surge in global oil prices, which skyrocketed from roughly $11 per barrel in 1998 to over $100 by the late 2000s. The influx of petrodollars allowed the administration to double domestic social spending. It heavily subsidising food, healthcare, and education, which significantly reduced poverty and income inequality during his presidency.

The Chavez administration nationalised major industries. In 2003, it brought forward stringent currency and exchange controls to prevent capital flight from the Latin American nation, alongside strict price controls on basic goods.

However, it missed a trick, by not using its oil wealth to diversify the domestic economy. By the end of Chavez’s term, petroleum accounted for 95% of Venezuela’s export revenues, and about half of all government income.

The move of purging state-run enterprises of experienced workers, and replacing them with political loyalists was another blunder, as the move hindered productivity. By the time of Chavez’s death in 2013, the foundation of the economy was critically damaged by rampant inflation, chronic shortages of basic goods, and an overvalued currency.

Chavez must be credited for sharing Venezuela’s vast oil wealth with the poor and disenfranchised. Chavismo (the term that defined the Chavez-led left-wing populist movement in Venezuela) witnessed the percentage of Venezuelans living below the poverty line falling to 36.3% in 2006 from 50.4% in 1998.

Infant mortality fell from 20.3 per thousand births when Chavez came to power, to 12.9 by 2011. The access to education was another massive plus for the country, with the number of children enrolled in secondary education rising from 48% in 1999 to 72% in 2010.

However, ‘Chavismo’ came at a cost, as the Latin American country had to reduce state-run oil company PDVSA to the status of a ‘piggy bank’, in order to sponsor the government’s social security projects, while neglecting oil infrastructure and production.

Maduro rule: The abyss kicks in

However, the real downfall happened in March 2013, as Nicholas Maduro took over the administration’s reigns immediately after Chavez’s death.

The domestic economy shrank 71% between 2012 and 2020, while inflation topped 130,000%. Its oil production, the beating heart of the country, dropped to the unthinkable less than 400,000 barrels a day.

Between 2013 and 2025, as per the World Bank and the IMF, approximately 80% of the country’s GDP evaporated, a figure that dwarfs what happened to the United States in the Great Depression (29%), and to the Soviet Union during its collapse.

Along with the structural fragility, Venezuela missed the opportunity to utilise sovereign wealth funds to sterilise the liquidity generating from its trade. Even though the Latin American nation had an entity called Macroeconomic Stabilization Fund (FEM), by 2014, the fund held less than $3 million.

As crude prices collapsed, Venezuela faced a choice between fiscal austerity or monetary expansion. As per Iranian freelance journalist Amirreza Etasi, a keen observer of Maduro’s economic missteps, the administration attempted to plug a fiscal gap, approaching 15% of GDP, not by cutting spending, but by expanding the monetary base.

As inflation ticked upward, the government attacked the symptom (prices) rather than the cause (liquidity). The 2014 ‘Fair Prices Act’ capped profit margins, and mandated sales below replacement cost.

“The economic result was a textbook negative supply shock. Manufacturers, unable to cover marginal costs, halted production lines. The scarcity index for basic goods skyrocketed to over 80%. To manage the fallout, the government militarised food distribution (CLAP), shifting from a market economy to a clientelist rationing system prone to massive corruption,” Etasi said.

Simultaneously, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) was stripped of its autonomy, with Maduro government turning the entity as a printing press for the Ministry of Finance. This triggered hyperinflation (technically defined as monthly inflation exceeding 50%) in November 2016. By 2018, annual inflation hit an astronomical 130,060%, though IMF estimates were higher.

To mask the collapse of the currency’s value, Venezuela engaged in serial redenomination. In 2008, three zeros got removed. In 2018 and 2021, the number stood at five and six, respectively. In total, 14 zeros were removed from the currency in 13 years.

Post the 2002–03 PDVSA strikes, the executive branch of the oil company fired over 18,000 technocrats (geologists, reservoir engineers, and managers) stripping the company of its institutional memory. They were replaced by political loyalists.

“In the capital-intensive oil industry, failure to invest in depreciation and amortization (D&A) is fatal. PDVSA stopped injecting water and gas into aging wells to maintain pressure. Result: production freefall from three million barrels per day (bpd) to a nadir of under 700,000 bpd by 2020. The collapse was sealed by the physical failure of the power grid. The March 2019 nationwide blackout, caused by brush fires and neglected transmission lines at the Guri dam, paralysed the country for days. Without electricity to power the upgraders in the Orinoco Belt, the heavy crude turned into sludge in the pipes, causing permanent damage to the infrastructure. This event alone cost the economy an estimated $2.9 billion in GDP,” Etasi remarked.

By 2019, price controls were abandoned, and the US dollar was allowed to circulate freely (de facto dollarisation). While the move stopped the hyperinflationary bleeding, it bifurcated the nation into two distinct economies.

The dollar economy (20%) was a segment fuelled by remittances, illicit gold exports to Turkey/UAE, and government contracting. On the other hand, emerged the bolivar economy (80%): Public sector workers and pensioners earning in local currency, whose purchasing power was obliterated.

By late 2025, oil production crawled back toward 900,000 bpd, aided by specific licences for United States’ Chevron and swap deals with India’s Reliance Industries involving naphtha for crude. However, with a credit-starved banking sector (due to 73% reserve requirements) and decimated public utilities, sustainable growth remained mathematically impossible.

The Gini coefficient, on the other hand, rose from 40.7 in 2014 to 53.9 in 2024, making Venezuela the most unequal country in the Americas. In 2025, Venezuelan inflation soared to 475% in 2025, the highest in the world.

On 2019, Washington imposed full blocking sanctions on the government of Venezuela, freezing all its assets in the United States, and cutting off state-owned oil company PDVSA from the American financial system.

Facing the heat, Maduro did implement a series of economic measures in 2021 that eventually ended Venezuela’s hyperinflation cycle. He paired the economic changes with concessions to the US-backed political opposition, including negotiations for what many had hoped would be a free and democratic presidential election in 2024.

However, in April 2024, the then Joe Biden government allowed the primary oil and gas waivers to expire, citing a failure by the Maduro government to uphold the democratic commitments made in the 2023 Barbados Agreement.

Delcy Rodriguez: Administrator facing a daunting task

Delcy Eloina Rodriguez Gomez, daughter of the Venezuelan guerilla leader and politician Jorge Antonio Rodriguez, wears multiple hats: lawyer, diplomat, and politician. The third is the one she is wearing now. Her promotion from vice-president to President came in January 2026, immediately after Maduro’s arrest.
She has inherited an economically fragile country that needs more than miracle to become ‘great’ again (going by Trump’s immediate reaction on her appointment). The American sanctions on the Venezuelan Central Bank (BCV) have been lifted, and Luis Perez-Gonzalez, deputy of former BCV President Laura Guerra, has been handling the institution’s leadership role since April this year.

It was the same BCV that remained a mere spectator when multiple zeros got stripped from the bolivar after one of the longest hyperinflationary episodes in modern history. Also, the central bank, during Maduro’s time, became notorious for not publishing key economic data. And when it started publishing stats, they were incomplete, forcing IFM and World Bank to stop cooperation with Venezuela in 2019.

The task of converting BCV from a mere spectator of government-sponsored economic miscalculations to the lead actor of Venezuela’s transformation will be a painful task. In the near term, the effects of sanctions relief will likely be most visible in exchange rate auctions, with greater transparency and reliability in these operations potentially helping reduce the gap between the official and the black market rates.

This would directly affect people’s daily life, by reducing price distortions, and helping stabilise inflation expectations. It would also reopen the door to multilateral institutions and international markets, particularly renewed engagement with the IMF, a necessary step toward debt restructuring and access to credit.

However, BCV 2.0 should be independent from political pressures, apart from possessing the ability to communicate a coherent monetary policy. This will satisfy Venezuela’s economic discourse, apart from attracting investment. BCV should be the first ‘government institution’ in the post-Maduro era, that should be capable enough to challenge the administration’s economic narratives.

Despite having abundant natural resource, the state-sponsored mistakes of blocking manufacturing development and industrial diversification have resulted in long-term stagnation and inequality.

Wages in the Venezuelan labour market, based on a mix of public sector, state-owned companies, private activities and a very extensive informal economy, are insufficient to cover basic needs. Being a formal employee no longer guarantees an acceptable standard of living, pushing many public servants to take on side jobs, or turn to the parallel economy.

580,000: the exact number of active businesses, that have been destroyed in Venezuela since early 2000s. The tally of 830,000 from the beginning of the 21st century now stands at less than 250,000 today.

With real GDP collapsing by more than 75%, along with hyperinflation, the country has shifted into a de facto dollarisation, where the sovereign bolivar (VES) coexists with the US dollar, which has become the standard for salaries and prices.

More than 7.5 million Venezuelans have left the country since 2015, about 22.5% of the population. Between 2012 and 2017, 22,000 doctors emigrated, as did more than 167,000 teachers. This exodus has created skill shortages in many sectors, while further weakening education, healthcare, and administration.
Reforms: Key weapon for Rodriguez administration

Rodriguez has brought new laws and regulations reversing Chávez’s nationalisation drive, by reopening key sectors, like hydrocarbons and mining, to private investment.

She has formed a ‘Commission for the Evaluation of Public Assets’, that will audit state ownership in other economic areas, such as agriculture, manufacturing and infrastructure.

Another commission has been formed, consisting representatives from the state, business sector, active workers, and pensioners to ‘review labour conditions, address precariousness, and strengthen the social security system’.

An increase in the so-called ‘integral minimum income’ to the equivalent of $240 per month has been implemented for public sector workers. The amounts are set in US dollars but paid in bolivares at the day’s official exchange rate set by the central bank.

The latest adjustment involved an increase of the ‘economic war bonus’ from $150 to $200 a month, alongside a $40 monthly food bonus. The economic war bonus for pensioners has been raised from $58 to $70 a month, and for public sector retirees from $130 to $168.

There will be a new, one-time ‘professional and academic recognition’ bonus, ranging between $60 and $120, aimed at strategic sectors, such as security, education, and healthcare. Labour inspectorates have been told to address workers’ demands regarding employment conditions.

Venezuela’s National Economic Council has been tasked with designing a more ‘efficient’ tax model aimed at making the Latin American country ‘more competitive’.

The Law on Streamlining and Optimization of Administrative Procedures have been enacted, with the goal of modernising public administration by reducing bureaucracy and incorporating digital tools. The law grants the executive authority to eliminate procedures, shorten timelines, and improve coordination between institutions.

Another mixed commission will evaluate which state-owned assets have ‘strategic’ importance, potentially opening some to private investment. However, the hydrocarbons sector will remain under state control.

The energy sector reform

The partial reform to the ‘Organic Hydrocarbons Law’ has now brought more flexible taxation, apart from lowering royalty baseline rates, and repealing previous restrictive levies to incentivise investment.

On the other hand, the electricity sector has been thrown open to private investment, allowing the creation of joint ventures. The sector, under Maduro administration, earned the infamy of lacking both investment and maintenance. Large parts of the country used to endure hours-long electricity outages, affecting water and telecommunications services.

GE Vernova Venezuela recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Venezuelan government to add at least 1 GW of electrical capacity to the National Electric System (SEN) within 24 months. The broader objective contemplates recovering more than 5 GW of capacity over the next four years.

As per the Financial Times, Wall Street banks and funds have now set their eyes on Venezuelan oil assets after Trump’s $100 billion investment pitch (that came in January) and recent legal reforms. Lionheart Capital and Elliott Management are among those pursuing deals, while JPMorgan and Jefferies lead investor trips to Caracas. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, however, are in the ‘wait and watch’ mode, citing unresolved governance, contract, and debt issues.

US Treasury issued sanctions waivers allowing select Western firms to operate, and contract disputes can now be settled in the United Kingdom, France, or Singapore under American law. Venezuelan authorities have already revised proposals under investor pressure, removing clauses allowing government termination for ‘public interest’.

By May, Venezuelan oil production moved past one million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time in over seven years. The feat, confirmed by an OPEC monthly report (apart from measured by secondary sources), was made possible due to a massive 46,000 bpd production increase compared to the March-April period.
It has been a good comeback from the abyss of 2019, when the imposition of American sanctions and export embargo on the Venezuelan energy sector resulted in crude production plummeting under one million bpd, hitting a low of around 350,000 bpd in 2020.

The final take: Nurturing democracy

Rodríguez is not out of the woods yet. Democratic transition is another front, where the acting President will be facing tremendous heat in the coming days.

The return of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who the Maduro government barred from competing in the July 2024 election, is imminent. However, things have got complicated, with the comeback of Dinorah Figuera, an exiled lawmaker and elected president of the parallel opposition National Assembly that emerged after the 2015 parliamentary election, after eight years. As per the reports, she has the backing of both Trump and Rodriguez.

What kind of political economy will emerge in the Latin American country in the coming days is not clear. However, it is clear that the Latin American country is betting on its natural resources to come out of the decades-long rut.

More than the hydrocarbons, investing in and uplifting the fragile social sector will make the real difference, if the country wants to be a healthy and competitive economy in Latin America in the coming days.

The post Earthquakes Derail Venezuela’s Escape From Abyss appeared first on International Finance.

IF Insights: Corporate leaders navigate tensions with Trump administration

IFM Correspondent — Thu, 05 Feb 2026 14:04:24 +0000

It’s a dangerous time for markets around the world, with the United States President Donald Trump moving away from market takeovers to imperial expansion. After the detention of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, Trump has set his eyes on Greenland, and is willing to acquire the territory through purchase or military action. He has imposed sweeping sanctions on European allies who are supporting Denmark’s right to retain Greenland.

Trump has also made immigration tough, and the shooting of a woman in Minneapolis by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) agents has the whole nation on edge.

Amidst such developments, Suzanne Clark, the CEO of the US Chamber of Defence, urged corporate leaders to courageously defend free-market principles against expanding government intervention. Speaking in a dimmed ballroom, Clark emphasised that America must maintain its openness to global commerce, the exchange of talent, innovative ideas, and international trade partnerships.

While Clark avoided directly naming President Donald Trump or his specific policies, her remarks represented a subtle critique of the administration’s unprecedented interference in corporate affairs. The Republican has broken new ground in executive involvement with private business operations, taking positions in technology companies, dictating corporate equity arrangements, implementing sweeping tariffs, and pursuing immigration restrictions that the Chamber opposes.

Clark’s comments reflect a broader pattern emerging among American business leaders, including measured, careful criticism that stops short of confrontation. This cautious approach marks a significant shift from Donald Trump’s first presidential term, when executives were more willing to publicly break with the administration over controversial issues, including the president’s response to the 2017 white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia.

Selective Corporate Criticism

Several high-profile CEOs have recently voiced concerns about specific administration policies, though their objections remain narrowly focused on areas directly affecting their business interests. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon both made headlines with tempered criticisms, but limited their remarks to Venezuela’s oil sector and Federal Reserve independence, respectively.

The muted nature of these responses has drawn criticism from governance experts and political observers. Richard Painter, a University of Minnesota law professor who served as chief ethics counsel under President George W. Bush, characterised the business community’s reaction as disappointingly weak.

He pointed to concerning developments, including immigration enforcement actions affecting US citizens in Minneapolis and Trump’s consideration of claiming Greenland, which could potentially isolate American companies from European markets.

Painter noted the stark contrast between the current administration’s authoritarian tendencies and Bush’s commitment to free-market economics. He emphasised that business leaders need to take a stronger stance against governmental coercion, regardless of whether it targets street protesters or corporate executives who resist presidential pressure.

Mark Levine, New York City’s Comptroller, overseeing substantial public pension fund investments in major US corporations, echoed these concerns. He characterised CEO responses as merely “baby steps,” with executives speaking up only when Trump’s actions directly threaten their bottom lines. Levine warned that capitalism cannot function properly if presidents with autocratic inclinations dictate corporate behaviour across American industry.

The Chamber’s Defence

Responding to criticism, a Chamber spokesperson referenced Clark’s media briefing, where she stated the organisation’s opposition to government intervention in business regardless of partisan source. Clark suggested that CEOs have been engaging in “quiet work” behind the scenes to promote sound public policy, avoiding what she termed a “rush to outrage.”

This approach aligns with the Chamber’s strategic positioning. In August 2025, the organisation’s chief policy officer, Neil Bradley, indicated that the group intended to respond to Trump in a nonpartisan manner to preserve broader support for free-market principles.

Presidential Pushback And Economic Perceptions

The public’s perception of Trump’s economic success contradicts his claims. He presently has a 36% approval rating on economic issues, which is lower than his 41% approval rating overall. Despite Trump’s claims that his policies have produced explosive growth, soaring productivity, booming investment, rising earnings, and conquered inflation, this mismatch still exists.

When CEOs have dared to question his approach, Trump has responded swiftly and sharply. After Woods expressed scepticism about Venezuela as an investment destination, calling it “uninvestable,” Trump threatened to exclude Exxon from future deals in the country, criticising the company for “playing too cute.” Similarly, when Dimon defended Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s independence following a criminal investigation into Powell’s conduct, Trump dismissed the CEO’s concerns outright.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla also voiced frustration over Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s efforts to roll back childhood vaccine recommendations, calling the moves scientifically baseless. However, representatives from Exxon, JPMorgan, and Pfizer all declined to provide additional comments for this story.

A Climate Of Uncertainty

The dread that permeates business boardrooms is highlighted by recent surveys. According to the Conference Board’s most recent study, uncertainty will be the biggest risk factor for American CEOs in 2026. Chief economist Dana Peterson pointed out that executives are aware that the lobbying environment has drastically changed, even if the study did not specifically address Trump.

According to Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a senior scholar at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, CEOs might be carefully calibrating their public remarks to prevent reprisals while positioning their businesses to profit from Trump’s aims and policies. He cautioned, though, that this laissez-faire strategy might backfire and lead to even more stringent regulations after Trump leaves office.

Executives may see the current interventionist policies as transient anomalies, according to Hufbauer. However, he warned that since state capitalism appeals to both progressive Democrats and some MAGA Republicans, investors and business executives may be dangerously complacent about long-term defence of free-market values.

The conflict between corporate America and the Trump administration raises important issues regarding the balance between private industry and governmental authority, as business executives must balance safeguarding their own interests with upholding more general economic liberties.

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In its first meeting of 2026, OPEC+ keeps oil output steady amid geopolitical turmoil

IFM Correspondent — Thu, 08 Jan 2026 12:20:26 +0000

Amid the Venezuela crisis, OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged after a quick meeting that avoided discussion of the geopolitical events affecting several of the hydrocarbon producer group’s members. The eight stakeholders (members), who pump about half the world’s oil, met amid the background of prices falling more than 18% in 2025, the steepest yearly drop since 2020, amid growing oversupply concerns.

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE flared in December 2025 over a decade-long conflict in Yemen, when a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government. The crisis triggered the biggest split in decades between the former close allies. And on January 3rd, the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with Donald Trump announcing Washington’s move to take control of the Latin American country’s oil resources. While Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, bigger even than those of OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, its production has plummeted due to years of mismanagement and sanctions.

“Right now, oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty. And OPEC+ is clearly prioritising stability over action,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official, while interacting with Reuters.

The eight OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman, raised oil output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day in 2025, equal to almost 3% of world oil demand, to regain market share.

“The eight members agreed in November 2025 to pause output hikes for January, February and March 2026 due to relatively low demand in the northern hemisphere winter. Sunday’s (January 4) brief online meeting affirmed that policy and did not discuss Venezuela,” one OPEC+ delegate said.

“The eight countries will next meet on February 1,” the source stated.

While the Saudi-UAE and Venezuela episodes will likely dominate OPEC’s 2026 agenda, at some point in time, the group has in the past managed to overcome many internal rifts, such as the Iran–Iraq War, by prioritising market management over political disputes.

Yet the group is facing other crises, with Russian oil exports falling due to American sanctions over its war in Ukraine, apart from Iran facing protests and possible American intervention. Analysts said it is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years, even if American oil majors do invest billions of dollars in Venezuela in 2026.

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Gold smashes 4,500 per ounce level amid United States-Venezuela tensions

International Finance Business Desk — Fri, 26 Dec 2025 09:09:53 +0000

Gold touched a record high on December 23, coming within a whisker of breaching the key USD 4,500 per ounce level, as investors flocked to the safe-haven metal amid the United States-Venezuela tensions. On the other hand, silver too rallied to an all-time peak.

While spot gold rose 0.7% to USD 4,476.15 per ounce, US gold futures for February delivery rose 0.9% to USD 4,509.80. Spot silver advanced 0.6% to USD 69.44 per ounce after touching a record high of USD 69.98, with its year-to-date gains topping 141% and outpacing gold on supply deficits, industrial demand, and investment inflows.

“United States-Venezuelan tensions are keeping gold on the radar for investors as an uncertainty hedge,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst ⁠at KCM Trade, adding that gold had surged in the penultimate week of 2025 as part of a broader positioning shift, as analysts project the Federal Reserve’s interest rates to ease further.

Waterer said buyers continued to see precious metals as an effective way to diversify portfolios and preserve value amid geopolitical uncertainties, adding that “I don’t think we are at the high ⁠watermark yet for gold or silver.”

President Donald Trump, in the middle of December, announced a “blockade” of all oil tankers under sanctions entering and leaving Venezuela.

Meanwhile, further support for gold came from reports ‍that the Republican could name a new Federal Reserve Chair by early January 2026, with markets pricing in two rate cuts for next year amid expectations of a more dovish policy stance.

Bullion, a classic refuge in times of geopolitical and economic unease, has surged more than 70% so far in 2025, riding a potent mix of factors like geopolitical risks, rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarisation, and renewed exchange-traded fund inflows.

“With year-end approaching, thinner liquidity conditions could amplify price swings,” said Frank Walbaum, a market analyst at trading and investment platform Naga, noting that gold might remain especially sensitive to geopolitical headlines and shifts in rate expectations.

“Some consolidation was possible over ⁠the festive period as liquidity thinned,” said Michael Brown, a senior ‌strategist at Pepperstone, while talking about silver’s current price volatility. He, however, concluded the rally should resume in earnest once volumes returned, with the USD 5,000 level a natural target for gold in 2026.

During the December 23 rally, spot platinum jumped 2.2% to USD 2,167.25, its ‌highest in more than ⁠17 years, while palladium rose 2.5% to a three-year high of USD 1,803.91, tracking strength in gold and silver.

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Will Venezuela become oil biggie? As US lifts sanctions, experts weigh in

IFM Correspondent — Tue, 31 Oct 2023 04:57:46 +0000

The state-run oil company of Venezuela, PDVSA, has started contacting customers with contracts for crude supply, amid the temporary lifting of United States sanctions, resuming cash sales to international refiners.

The Joe Biden administration removed the majority of the six-month limitations on Venezuela’s ability to produce, sell, and export oil to specific markets. Some Venezuelan crude will again be available to consumers who were previously prohibited from transacting, thanks to the wide relaxation of sanctions that have been in place since 2019 in the wake of an election that Washington viewed as fraudulent.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury issued the license with the intention of promoting a free and fair presidential election in Venezuela in 2024. However, it is not anticipated to instantly result in more exports or dramatically improve Venezuela’s declining oil production.

A large number of PDVSA’s highly qualified employees have left the trading business as a result of inadequate pay for oil traders.

According to experts, this loss of experience means that new discussions can take some time, or result in few new export deals in the six months of the license.

With the greatest crude reserves in the world, Venezuela currently produces 780,000 barrels per day (bpd) on average. The revisions to the license could help PDVSA generate more cash flow by removing some of the intermediaries who are selling its oil to consumers, primarily in Asia, at a discount.

“The OFAC has issued an unprecedented general license that suspends the broad siege imposed on PDVSA,” the company’s CEO and Oil Minister Pedro Tellechea said on social media, Reuters reported.

Under the license granted by OFAC, which is in charge of US sanctions, Venezuela is now able to get paid directly for goods or services.

The limitations on payment had diminished the earnings from sales to PDVSA and its joint companies, which were only permitted to ship goods to settle debt; cash transfers to Venezuela were not permitted. Some US sanctions against PDVSA remained in place.

Experts’ take on the matter

The easing of sanctions on Venezuela may not quickly expand its oil output but can boost profits by returning some foreign companies to its oilfields and providing its crude to a wider set of cash-paying customers, experts believe.

“This looks like a wide lifting of oil sanctions on Venezuela, which is surprising because the license is more expensive than expected,” said Francisco Monaldi, a Latin American energy expert with Rice University’s Baker Institute, while speaking with Reuters.

The Joe Biden government’s move is seen as a measure to ease high oil prices caused due to sanctions on Russia and OPEC output cuts. However, experts believe that Venezuela’s overall exports are unlikely to offset those global production cuts.

To once again become a relevant oil exporter, the Southern American country needs dozens of drilling rigs, billions of dollars in infrastructure replacements for refineries, flow stations and crude upgraders and a reliable power supply.

Venezuela can also inaugurate gas exports if United States-authorized negotiations with Trinidad and Tobago for joint offshore projects progress, while a portion of oil currently going to China can end up in the Caribbean if President Nicolas Maduro re-establishes the country’s Petrocaribe supply program.

Venezuela’s exports to China directly and through trans-shipment hubs have fallen to 437,000 bpd so far in 2023 from 477,000 bpd in 2022, according to vessel monitoring data.

“If Venezuela and China reach a pact to resume debt payments and expand joint oil projects, that could add some extra 100,000 bpd of output in the two-year period,” Monaldi remarked, while adding, “But if no sustained investment happens, it is difficult to predict overall output of more than 1.1 million bpd in the short and medium terms.”

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Citigroup to exit Venezuela after more than 100 years

International Finance Business Desk — Thu, 15 Jul 2021 11:13:30 +0000

Citigroup is planning to exit the Venezuelan market after being operational for more than 100 years in the country, media reports said. The lender will sell its operations to Banco Nacional de Crédito (BNC).

Citigroup has entered into an agreement under which BNC will acquire Citi’s operations in the Latin American country. The agreement has received regulatory approval and is expected to be closed in the coming weeks.

Citigroup opened its offices in Venezuela back in 1917 but it was noticed that the number of employees in the company’s operations has been decreasing in the past few years. Media reports also mention that there are less than 100 employees in the country, all of whom have been given the option to continue with BNC.

BNC President and CEO Jorge Nogueroles told the media, “BNC is committed to supporting Citi’s clients in Venezuela who will continue receiving high-quality financial services while benefiting from the advantages of an expanding local bank with a skilled professional team and a modern technological platform.”

Citigroup has been operating in the country for more than 100 years and the acquisition of its operations and talented workforce will let BNC create business opportunities for multinational corporations and Venezuelan companies. They can also offer an attractive portfolio of products and services and a nationwide network.

BNC comes with 18 years of experience in supporting the productive sectors of the economy where they adopt financial solutions that are in tune with the current economic conditions of the region.

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Iran prepares to launch cryptocurrency ‘to overcome US-led financial blockade’

International Finance Desk — Thu, 30 Aug 2018 05:54:41 +0000

Iran is planning to launch its own state cryptocurrency in an effort to avoid the latest economic sanctions enforced by US President Donald Trump. At first, the Central Bank of Iran had imposed a ban on cryptocurrency and Ethereum in all financial transactions to “prevent crimes such as money laundering and terrorism.” However, changes are being implemented for a different cause. According to Ibena, a local news outlet, the Central Bank of Iran has disclosed details about the cryptocurrency developed by the Iranian National Cyberspace Center. The channel also confirmed that the cryptocurrency will be backed by Iranian rials.

Now, all transactions will be recorded on a private blockchain-based Hyperledger Fabric technology. Alireza Daliri, deputy for management and investment at the Directorate for Scientific and Technological Affairs, said: the “currency would facilitate the transfer of money (to and from) anywhere in the world,” and will help Iran “at the time of sanctions.”

An Iranian official said: “We are trying to prepare the grounds to use a domestic digital currency in the country. This currency would facilitate the transfer of money [to and from] anywhere in the world. Besides, it can help us at the time of sanctions.” In addition, the state media explained that the government is hoping to integrate blockchain within its domestic banking system over the next quarter and the tokenised cryptocurrency will enable financial transactions in several commercial banks commonly linked on a decentralised ledger.

Previously, Venenzuela had launched its oil-backed cryptocurrency earlier this year, Petro—the world’ s first state-crypto. Galia Benartzi, Co-Founder of Bancor Network, the largest decentralised coin exchange (DEX) by volume, said: “It is unsurprising that countries like Iran and Venezuela are opting for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) following US sanctions. These national governments need ways of managing their economy without relying on the dollar. The adoption of CBDCs can provide a dynamic boost to local economies by retaining and maintaining value.

“The problem with creating commodity-backed national currencies, is that you need to cap the issuance, or have a process of continual measurement of the underlying asset. We urge them to simultaneously create reserve systems that are transparent in nature, easily verifiable on the blockchain and most importantly, based on real demand in international markets.”

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OPEC members to decide on oil prices this week

International Finance Desk — Tue, 19 Jun 2018 07:26:37 +0000

There is already disagreement between OPEC members on how much oil should be returned to the market, with Russia propagating its own view on this, stating that OPEC would consider returning 1.5mn barrels to the market for Q3 2018 only, when demand is high.

Credit Suisse analysts said in a report on Sunday, “Importantly, OPEC needs a consensus of all members to officially change its output policy, leading some to believe it may end in a broken meeting.”

Analysts say Saudi Arabia would like to initially return just 500,000 and watch the market before adding more, while Iran and Venezuela want to keep the status quo.”There’s a big push to get more oil on the market in this Q3 period, so they can avoid a price spike and tightness in the market,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital. Oil use inside of Saudi Arabia rises sharply in the summer months, as the kingdom burns crude to meet its higher electricity demand and it typically sends less to the world market. That coincides with the tail end of the U.S. summer driving season, another big period for stronger demand.

Oil prices have already been swinging ahead of the OPEC meeting. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose above $75 per barrel on Monday, a gain of better than 2.7 percent, after falling sharply on Friday. Oil moved higher on a news report that OPEC could raise production by 300,000 to 600,000 barrels a day, less than many expected.

“Here they are moving into summer term, which is a high-demand quarter, and now they want to basically make sure that the decision that they make in the June meeting does not involve basically taking oil prices once again towards $80 or above because that could potentially basically counteract what they had initially done, [which] was to balance the market,” said Abhishek Deshpande, J. P. Morgan’s senior oil analyst, on CNBC’s Power Lunch.

Analysts who watch OPEC also don’t agree on how much oil could come back on the market. Macquarie Research said the events in Vienna this week could be bearish, or negative for oil , and it expects an 800,000 barrel a day increase in production, which could dent prices by $2 to $4 a barrel. There could be a $6 to $8 decline if 1 million barrels a day were returned instead, they added.

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Donald Trump bans the US from transacting in Venezuelan cryptocurrency Petro

International Finance Desk — Tue, 20 Mar 2018 10:05:35 +0000

Signing an executive order, US President Donald Trump has imposed a ban on the US companies and citizens from dealing in Venezuela’s oil-backed cryptocurrency, Petro.

The cryptocurrency created to help the country’s collapsed economy was launched in February. According to the US President, Petro is an ‘attempt to circumvent US sanctions’. Trump has urged the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to sanction all the regulations to implement the order. Trump has undertaken the move to pressurise the Venezuelan government of President Nicolas Maduro.

In a statement, Mnuchin stated: “President Maduro decimated the Venezuelan economy and spurred a humanitarian crisis. Instead of correcting course to avoid further catastrophe, the Maduro regime is attempting to circumvent sanctions through the Petro digital currency – a ploy that Venezuela’s democratically-elected National Assembly has denounced and Treasury has cautioned US persons to avoid.”

The Venezuelan government that is stranded in economic jeopardy again, called the ban a ‘new imperial aggression’.

“While Venezuela’s attempt to issue a cryptocurrency is novel, there’s nothing new about the US restricting financial dealings with sanctioned countries,” stated think tank Coin Center executive director Jerry Brito, “Issuing a cryptocurrency is not going to help Venezuela escape sanctions.”

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