In 2026, Qatar’s banking industry is expected to remain strong, and the Gulf nation will benefit from the swift expansion of its LNG production capabilities, stated a recently released S&P Global Ratings report, highlighting the resilience of the country’s financial sector by stating, “We anticipate continued strong capitalisation and adequate liquidity; modest declines in profit margins due to interest rate cuts and taxes; and somewhat muted growth, despite expectation of a rapid expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production that will benefit the country’s headline growth and its budget and current account surpluses.”
“We predict that Qatar’s North Field Expansion project will boost LNG production by roughly 32% by 2027 and contribute to stronger real GDP growth of an average of 5% in 2026-2028, up from 2.7% growth in 2024-2025,” the report stated.
“Government revenue and the non-hydrocarbon economy are expected to benefit from increased LNG production. But we anticipate lending growth to stay at about 4% to 5%,” S&P Global Ratings noted.
High-risk cyclical industries, such as real estate, real estate rental services, hotels, contractors, commercial agencies and investment firms have seen a comparatively concentrated increase in lending in recent years. These industries make up somewhat less than half of all domestic loans.
The real estate market in Qatar is making a modest comeback. According to data released by the Real Estate Regulatory Authority, the total number of properties and units sold in 2025 rose by almost 51% year over year. Strong demand in the residential housing market in strategic Doha neighbourhoods was the primary cause of this. Regulatory changes like the new “Qatar Residency by Investment” programme, which grants long-term residency to foreigners who make commercial or real estate investments, help to sustain the current recovery.
In the first three quarters of 2025, the hotel business gradually recovered, with tourist arrivals up 2% year over year, mostly from Gulf nations. According to the S&P Global Ratings report, “We expect the estimated systemwide average non-performing loan ratio to decline to about 3.4% in 2026-2027, down from an estimated 3.7% in 2024-2025, supported by the stable asset quality of the two largest banks, the Qatar National Bank (QNB) and Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB).”
The report concluded, “We anticipate that the number of new non-performing loans will be low while the real estate industry continues to function better. However, several mid-sized banks will have substantial Stage 2 loan risk due to historical real estate holdings.”
There is also an anticipation that a mix of recoveries and write-offs, as well as interest rate reductions and precautionary provisions booked during the previous several years, will help stabilise asset quality. According to our estimates, the systemwide coverage ratio was around 128% as of September 30, 2025, and it will continue to be higher than 100% in 2026-2027.