Italy and Brazil only countries where employers report negative hiring plans
June 10, 2015: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released by ManpowerGroup, reveals US employers’ hiring intentions are among the strongest globally for the third quarter of 2015. Taking into account seasonal variations, the Net Employment Outlook is +16%, which is on par with Q2 2015 and up from Q3 2014 when the Outlook was +14%.
Only employers in Taiwan, India, Japan and Hong Kong make more optimistic hiring predictions than their American counterparts. Although most forecasts globally indicate payrolls will grow in the July-September time frame, the results suggest hiring will proceed at an uneven pace and overall hiring momentum will be marginally slower in comparison to the prior quarter and the same time last year. The forecast in Brazil is the weakest since the survey began in Q4 2009, and is also the country’s first negative forecast.
US Results Summary
Of the more than 11,000 US employers surveyed, 24 percent anticipate increasing staff levels in Q3 2015, the highest percentage of employers adding staff since Quarter 3 2008. Four percent of employers expect workforce reductions, and 70 percent expect no change in hiring plans. The final 2 percent of employers are undecided about their hiring intentions, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +20%. When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook becomes +16%.
“US employers have reported the same steady hiring plans throughout 2015, and the third-quarter results are no exception,” said ManpowerGroup CEO, Jonas Prising. “We are seeing the signs of a healthy labor market, with the outlook improving compared to 2014. Although there is some variance in optimism across sectors, employers are focused on growth and adding to their workforces at a controlled rate so as not to face the consequences of over-hiring.”
US hiring plans by regions, industry sectors and metro areas/states
Third-quarter research shows US employers’ quarter-over-quarter hiring intentions improve slightly in the South and remain unchanged in the Northeast, Midwest and West. Year-over-year, employers in the West are planning for a moderate increase in the hiring pace. Employers in the Northeast, Midwest and South are slightly more confident about staff additions.
Among the 50 states, employers in North Dakota, Michigan, Virginia and Iowa indicate the strongest Net Employment Outlooks, whileAlaska, Illinois, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Arizona project the weakest Outlooks.
Global results summary
- Third-quarter forecasts are mostly positive with employers in 40 of 42 countries and territories expecting to add to their workforces by varying margins over the next three months.
- The most optimistic Net Employment Outlooks are reported in Taiwan, India, Japan, Hong Kong and the United States, while the weakest hiring plans are reported in Italy, Brazil, Austria, Spain and Switzerland. The only negative forecasts are reported in Italyand Brazil.
- Hiring prospects strengthen in 11 of 42 countries and territories when compared with Q2, but decline in 22. Outlooks improve in 15 countries and territories year-over-year but weaken in 23.
“Employers are seeing few signs of accelerating momentum in the global economy, but, while caution remains widespread, the good news is most are recognizing the need to tentatively add to their workforces to meet demand rather than being stuck in wait-and-see mode. This is contributing to a generally positive hiring outlook,” added Prising.