OPEC maintained its prediction that the world’s oil demand would grow relatively strongly in 2025, stating that driving and flying would boost consumption and that possible trade tariffs would not have an effect on economic expansion.
According to a monthly report, global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026.
Neither prediction changed from the previous month. Unlike the International Energy Agency (IEA), which believes that demand will peak this decade as the world transitions to cleaner fuels, OPEC thinks that oil demand will continue to rise in the years to come.
Although it stated that United States President Donald Trump’s trade policies have increased market uncertainty and may lead to supply-demand imbalances that are not indicative of market fundamentals, OPEC did not alter its forecast for economic growth in 2025.
“It remains to be seen how and to what extent potential tariffs and other policy measures will play out. So far, they are not anticipated to materially impact the current underlying growth assumptions,” OPEC said in the report.
With Brent crude trading lower at USD 76 per barrel following the release of the OPEC report, oil prices remained stable.
Demand growth in 2025 is predicted by the IEA to be 1.05% bpd, which is less than OPEC’s.
However, the gap between the two in 2025 is significantly smaller than it was in 2024, when disagreements over the rate of the energy transition hit a record high.
Since late 2022, the market has been supported by a series of output cuts carried out by OPEC+, which consists of OPEC and allies like Russia.
According to its current plan, oil production will be progressively increased starting in April 2025.
Meanwhile, in January, Russia’s crude production dropped to 8.962 million barrels per day, which was 16,000 barrels per day less than what was required by the OPEC+ supply agreement.