Glencore booked USD 2.66 billion in first-half adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) from trading on Wednesday (August 5), up from just USD 40 million a year earlier.

With this, the commodity major joined the trading desks of European oil majors BP, Shell, TotalEnergies and rival trading house Trafigura in reaping billions in profits this year.

Crude, fuel and LNG prices hit all-time record or ‌multi-year ⁠highs earlier 2026 as the Iran war halted tanker traffic leaving the Gulf, with strategically important chokehold Strait of Hormuz becoming the biggest geopolitical leverage for Tehran and Washington.

“The Oil and Gas department was the primary contributor, which benefited from significant dislocations across LNG, oil and shipping markets,” Glencore CEO ⁠Gary Nagle said.

Glencore’s first-half results put it on track to rebound from three straight years of lower earnings from energy marketing. The trading volumes surged to around ⁠5.2 million barrels per day of crude and fuels, about 24% more than its 2025 average.

For the H2, Glencore said that significant inventory drawdowns had left oil markets increasingly sensitive to disruptions.

Glencore is also moving ahead with its planned secondary listing in Australia, a move, that as per the company, signals a push to tap one of the world’s fastest-growing pools of institutional capital to fund its copper growth ambitions and potentially pave the way for transformational M&A.

As per Nagle, Glencore can achieve inclusion in Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 index within 12 months, requiring about AUSD 1.5 billion of market capitalisation, before qualifying for the larger ASX 100 index, which requires roughly AUSD 5.5 billion of shares trading on the Trans-Tasman country’s market.

The CEO said investors had shown strong interest in an Australian listing, particularly after Glencore’s failed merger talks with Rio Tinto earlier this year.

“There have been requests from many investors to meet with us after some of the discussions that had happened about Rio,” he told reporters, While talking about his visit to Australia in March and April, that reportedly generated strong interest from large pension funds.

Australia’s biggest pension fund, ⁠AustralianSuper, said in May that a Glencore ASX listing would be “positive” for both the exchange and the company.

Nagle also said existing Australian shareholders faced limits on how much they could invest overseas, with a local listing potentially unlocking access to more capital.

While Nagle said that Glencore’s focus would be on organic copper growth, an ASX presence could smooth the path for future Australian deals by increasing the commodity giant’s visibility among local investors, aligning its shareholder base, in the process, more closely with Rio Tinto’s.

“Glencore is looking at an Australian listing to access mining-friendly investors, or perhaps at least make their name more well known if Rio Tinto and Glencore decide to have a go again at merging,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said.

Nagle told the media that a secondary listing in Australia would make no difference to any potential merger with Rio.

For the ASX, landing an USD 87 billion global miner and commodities trader in the form of Glencore would be a massive development, adding a big ⁠name to a resources sector that has lost players through consolidation. Realising the opportunity’s potential, ASX has already expressed its “delight” in Glencore choosing the Trans-Tasman country for market listing.

Glencore plans to increase copper production to about 1.6 million metric tons by 2035 from 810,000 to 870,000 tons expected in 2026, requiring substantial capital investment.

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But then there is another fear. If these colossal resource extraction specialists hold hands, there would be a historic concentration of market authority over minerals and metals (resources indispensable to modern civilisation) in the hands of a few, who could indirectly have an indispensable opinion in the global economy. And China, being the factory of the world, and because it requires these resources for its industrial engine, would erect the most impenetrable regulatory fortresses to maintain autonomy and global competitiveness.

“China’s antitrust regulator is likely to be concerned ⁠about a ‌combined entity’s concentration in copper production and marketing, as well as iron ore marketing. Beijing may also see an opportunity to force asset sales to friendly entities,” several analysts and lawyers told Reuters.

In fact, well before the Glencore talks were made public, Rio Tinto was exploring an asset-for-equity swap aimed at trimming the ⁠11% holding of its biggest shareholder, state-run Aluminium Corporation of China, known as Chinalco. Rio Tinto’s Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea and Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia were reportedly among the assets of interest to Chinalco.

“To get the Glencore deal over the line, assets in Africa are especially likely sales candidates, as Latin America has become less accepting of Chinese investment. China will see this as an opportunity to squeeze out assets,” said Glyn Lawcock, an analyst at Barrenjoey in Sydney.

The Copper Market

This proposed megacorporation would own an overwhelming share of worldwide production across multiple strategic commodities.

Let’s take the copper market. The combined behemoth would control roughly 10% of global mine output, establishing dominance over a metal indispensable to electrical grids and decarbonisation efforts. Iron ore concentration would prove even more striking as the merged group would govern approximately 18% of seaborne iron ore commerce, the essential feedstock for steel manufacturing.

China consumes more copper and iron ore than any nation on Earth. Its regulators scrutinise with profound suspicion any supply consolidation that might grant producers excessive leverage over domestic purchasers. Beijing’s competition authorities have consistently demonstrated scepticism toward mining megamergers that concentrate bargaining power against Chinese industrial interests.

Investors and analysts also see the will to control future copper supply as the prime motivator behind the Glencore-Rio Tinto merger talks.

A premium of 15% to 30% to Glencore’s early January 2026 share price could get the deal done and avoid spurring Australian rival BHP bidding for the company, RBC mining analyst Ben Davis said, citing recent conversations with investors. The move will end up valuing Glencore at up to USD 87 billion.

“Securing copper – not creating near-term value – is the key rationale for the transaction,” Davis stressed.

Glencore’s market capitalisation is about USD 76 billion, while Rio is worth about USD 145 billion. A combined “GlenTinto” would leapfrog BHP as the world’s largest mining company by market value, while significantly boosting Rio Tinto’s long-term copper exposure at a time when electrification-driven demand growth is colliding with a thin project development pipeline across the globe. The deal, if pulled off in January 2026, will be a well-timed one, given the way copper prices set multiple records amid supply disruptions and US trade uncertainties, which are fuelling a sharp rally for base metals.

Rio, which expanded into lithium in 2025 with the USD 6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, expects commodities output to rise about 3% a year by 2030 as new assets such as Guinea’s Simandou iron ore mine and Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi copper complex start producing. At this juncture, Glencore’s copper assets will be the real prize for the British-Australian multinational mining company. The assets which Rio may end up acquiring include a 44% share in the Collahuasi copper mine in Chile.

“While Rio has got a lot right in recent years in developing Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou, the growth beyond this current phase is far less exciting with projects (including copper assets like Resolution in the US and Nuevo Cobre in Chile) either too small to make a difference or still in the development phase or stuck in courts,” Davis noted.

Historical Precedents Illuminate The Path

Previous consolidation attempts illuminate Chinese regulatory philosophy with instructive clarity. When BHP mounted its audacious bid for Rio Tinto in 2008, Chinese resistance figured prominently in the deal’s ultimate disintegration. More recently, in 2020, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation torpedoed Glencore’s proposed acquisition of coal assets from Rio Tinto. Officials cited grave concerns about excessive concentration in seaborne coking coal supply chains.

In fact, Glencore has landed in similar situations before. In 2013, Beijing forced the Swiss-based company to sell its stake in the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, one of the world’s largest, to Chinese investors ‍for nearly USD 6 billion in exchange for the Xstrata takeover. As of January 2026, Glencore has also agreed to sell Chinese customers minimum quantities of copper concentrate at certain prices for just over seven years amid the Xi Jinping government’s growing discomfort over the fact that the Rio Tinto-Glencore joint venture will have too much power over the copper market.

These interventions telegraph that Chinese authorities will dissect the combination with microscopic intensity, particularly given this deal’s potentially seismic ramifications across multiple commodity ecosystems. In fact, as per Reuters, the regulators will also be examining a planned USD 53 billion copper-focused merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, given the fact that copper assets are in even higher demand today, given the metal’s role in the global economy’s green transition and shift towards artificial intelligence (AI).

Divestment Calculus

To mollify regulatory anxieties, the merged corporation would likely sacrifice substantial holdings, especially in markets where the combined entity would wield disproportionate influence. Industry observers identify iron ore operations in Australia’s Pilbara region as prime divestment candidates. Both companies operate extensive facilities there that feed Chinese steel mills directly.

Copper assets might also face the chopping block, though this scenario presents greater complexity. The metal’s pivotal role in global energy transformation and the copper supply’s relatively dispersed character complicate matters. The merged entity might contend that maintaining integrated copper operations advances broader environmental objectives and energy security imperatives.

Additional divestment possibilities encompass coal holdings, where Glencore maintains considerable operations, plus various base metals or industrial minerals where the companies’ portfolios intersect substantially.

Notwithstanding regulatory obstacles, the merger’s strategic architecture remains intellectually compelling for both enterprises. The combination would unlock operational synergies, compress costs through enhanced scale economies, and position the unified entity to capitalise on surging demand for energy transition metals. The deal would simultaneously furnish the combined company with augmented financial resources to bankroll new mine development and processing infrastructure.

Glencore’s trading division, among the planet’s most sophisticated commodity trading operations, would infuse another critical dimension into Rio Tinto’s predominantly extraction-focused business paradigm. Integrating mining and trading capabilities could generate exceptional value through superior market intelligence and optimised production-sales coordination.

Geopolitical Reverberations

And it’s not just a Chinese thing. There will be even more exhaustive scrutiny in the European Union (EU), the United States and Australia as these countries have formidable watchdogs and antitrust enquiries. But the Chinese verdict remains the most important, as China is ultimately the major destination for mined minerals.

Regulatory outcomes could establish momentous precedents for subsequent mining industry consolidation. A successful transaction, even requiring significant asset sales, might embolden other miners to pursue ambitious combinations. Conversely, regulatory rejection could freeze M&A activity across the sector for years, perhaps decades.

Timing any merger attempt demands exquisite judgment. Current commodity market conditions, with numerous metal prices languishing amid economic uncertainties, might incline regulators toward efficiency-enhancing combinations. Alternatively, mounting concerns about supply security amid escalating geopolitical tensions could prompt authorities toward greater caution regarding strategic commodity supply chain concentration.

As Rio Tinto and Glencore navigate continuing discussions, both must traverse a labyrinthine regulatory landscape with surgical precision. Success demands more than identifying palatable asset divestitures. The companies must construct persuasive arguments demonstrating how their merger serves expansive interests in guaranteeing stable, sustainable commodity provision. This is not going to be an easy battle for these companies.

The post IF Insights: China braces for GlenTinto copper dominance appeared first on International Finance.

RMB experts told the media, “Such moves would greatly benefit environments like Zambia that need to beef up their reserve base as part of their economic recovery plan targets. Our current analysis suggests that an increased stake in the mine would enable the Zambian government to benefit from higher dividend pay-outs in future.”

The Democratic Republic of Congo is the largest producer of copper in Africa and Zambia ranks second in the list. The country produced more than 646 000 tonnes of metal in the first nine months of 2020 compared to 590,321 tonnes in the same period the year earlier.

Most of the African economies see Copper as an important tool towards economic boost and 80 percent of the exports are covered by Copper. Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines, earlier, acquired 73 percent stake of Glencore in Mopani Copper Mines.

The country faced challenges towards mine nationalisation, which slumped the treasury and witnessed production plummet.

The country has been the key agricultural producer for Southern Africa and Delta Drone International’s local unit Rocketfarm is planning to expand its presence in Zambia through a project for Syngenta, an agricultural company. Zambia’s 19 percent GDP is contributed from agriculture, employing three quarters of the population.

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