The US Treasury Department on Monday (June 22) issued a 60-day waiver, known as “General License X”, permitting Iran to produce, sell and transport crude oil, petrochemicals and petroleum products through August 21.

The licence also clears previously sanctioned vessels and entities for transactions and allows payments in US dollars, apart from reopening the door to American imports of Iranian crude, a trade that had largely collapsed since the 1990s.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed the waiver as part of efforts to implement the last week’s US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) while broader negotiations continue. The exemption also covers shipping, insurance and vessel registration services tied to the oil trade.

The financial stakes are significant. Around 67 million barrels of Iranian crude currently sit stranded in floating storage in the Gulf. Unlocking that inventory could generate USD 8-9 billion for Tehran, according to Miad Maleki, a former Treasury sanctions official now at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies. He said the combined measures amount to a sustained reopening of Iran’s most important revenue stream.

“Production, sales, dollar payments, petrochemicals and protected shipping — all switched on at once. Together, they amount to a sustained reopening of Iran’s most important revenue stream,” he told the CNBC.

President Donald Trump defended the move, saying any resulting oil profits were intended for Iran to buy American agricultural products, rather than funding its military.

China, which buys roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, is expected to be the biggest beneficiary. Maleki said dollar clearing would likely prompt Chinese buyers to accelerate purchases, having previously relied on opaque payment channels to avoid secondary sanctions exposure.

Chinese crude imports from Iran had fallen sharply between February and May of 2026, an unprecedented 4.8 million barrels per day, a steeper drop than the one seen during the COVID pandemic (4 mbd decline), according to JPMorgan. Kpler analyst Muyu Xu said buyers were still reviewing the new rules and that any pickup in purchases would depend on pricing and cargo availability.

“The ‘General License X’ also removes the principal banking friction constraining volume, giving both state refiners and independent refineries, or teapots, access to intermediary banking networks they previously had to circumvent,” Maleki noted. He now expects a rapid storage “top-off cycle” under which Chinese buyers could rush to replenish stockpiles before the exemption expires in August this year.

Iranian exports have already shown signs of recovery, with 6.79 million barrels shipped last week, the highest in two months, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward. Geopolitical Strategy chief strategist Michael Feller said Iran would likely use the 60-day window to repair war-damaged oil facilities and secure longer-term contracts with Chinese buyers, calling it a major boost to both Tehran’s economy and morale.

“Iranian crude, which typically trades at a discount to global benchmarks, could also shift to a premium above Brent given demand pressure, further increasing Tehran’s revenue windfall,” said Brett Erickson, a managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors.

Iranian officials have also pointed to other gains from the talks. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Swiss negotiations had produced an agreement to release USD 12 billion in frozen Iranian assets and credited the diplomatic process with reducing violence in Lebanon. He said Iran would keep pushing for Lebanon’s “territorial integrity and national sovereignty” through the talks.

The sanctions relief has drawn criticism from sceptics, who argue Washington is offering major economic concessions before securing firm commitments from Tehran on its nuclear programme or regional conduct. Supporters counter that the measures are designed to build momentum, secure nuclear inspections and lower the risk of renewed conflict in the region.

However, signs of an energy pickup will take time to materialise, said Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at Kpler.

“Buyers are scrambling to assess the new authorisation and complete internal compliance reviews — particularly those not previously active in Iranian crude. That said, Chinese buyers’ interest ultimately will rise, though actual procurement will depend on pricing and cargo availability,” Xu told CNBC.

Also Read: US-Iran peace deal: Shipping industry remains cautious on Hormuz front

Also Read: The Hormuz blockade is not just about the oil

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According to trade intelligence platform Kpler, since the Iran war began, more than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global ⁠market, in what seems to be the largest energy supply disruption of modern history. Talking about the immediate impact, Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told Reuters that the lost fuel may end up curtailing the aviation industry’s energy demand for 10 weeks.

In the Middle East, countries lost about eight million barrels per day of crude production in March, nearly equivalent to the combined production of Exxon Mobil and Chevron, two of the biggest ‌oil companies ⁠in the world. As per Kpler, jet fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman fell from about 19.6 million barrels in February, to just 4.1 million barrels for March and April so far combined.

“With crude prices averaging around USD 100 a barrel since the conflict began, those missing volumes represent roughly USD 50 billion ⁠in lost revenues,” said Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler.

The ratio equates to a 1% cut in Germany’s annual GDP, or roughly the entire GDP of smaller European countries such as Latvia or Estonia.

Kpler even stated that the resumption of energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz would mean little for the global economy, as recovery of ⁠output and flows will remain slow. While global onshore crude inventories have fallen by about 45 million barrels so far in April, production outages, since late March, have reached roughly 12 million bpd.

“Heavier crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq could take four to five months to return ⁠to normal operating levels, extending stock draws through the summer. Damage to refining capacity and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex means full restoration of regional energy infrastructure could take years,” Rauball concluded.

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The crisis has led to rising costs through various channels. With 90% of shipping traffic from the region diverted around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, shipping costs have risen by 15% to 30%, and journey times have increased by 6 to 25 days. While rerouting around Africa has a negligible delay effect on most routes, the Asia-Europe route is a notable exception. Redirecting also increases the risk of port congestion and cancelled shipments. For instance, due to shipping delays, several car manufacturers have temporarily paused production at their European plants.

The World Bank notes that, by the end of 2024, around a year after the crisis began, the strategic Suez and Bab El-Mandeb straits, which once carried 30% of world container traffic, had been cut by three-quarters. At the same time, trade diversions have transformed port activity along the Asia-Europe Corridor, changing the fortunes of key hubs. For example, South Asian ports, such as Colombo, have seized the opportunity to capture more regional cargoes, while Gulf countries have adopted alternative solutions, such as the newly established land link from the Gulf ports to Haifa, bypassing the conflict zones. Reduced traffic, however, led to a 50% drop in Suez Canal revenues.

The crisis in the region has also led to escalating trade costs due to increased war risk insurance premiums, which are often used for maritime insurance of ships navigating through high-risk areas during the conflict. According to the World Bank, war risk premiums for the Red Sea, which were reported at a meagre 0.07% before the Israel-Hamas conflict began in October 2023, had risen to almost 0.7% by December 2023.

The Middle East crisis also threatens to disrupt supply chains and affect the availability of goods, which, in turn, leads to price volatility in the concerned markets. Delays in critical components are disrupting global supply chains. Oil-dependent sectors are facing higher input costs, as countries heavily dependent on oil imports from the Middle East are running larger trade deficits. With a quarter of the world’s urea coming from the Middle East, the shortage of fertilisers raises the cost of food production as well.

Given that 80% of India’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East crisis continues to put the country’s energy security at risk. Further, with an estimated 9 million Indian workers in the region, the escalating conflicts pose a risk for the potential loss of jobs and the inflow of remittances from the region, which stood at around US$ 50 billion in 2023.

Since the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect on January 19, 2025, disruptions to global maritime trade have been largely contained. The World Bank estimates that, if the crisis is resolved by May 2025, the growth of maritime trade in the Red Sea Neighbourhood will increase by about 6%, and by about 5% in the EU, compared to their baseline scenario, where the crisis was to last until October 2025.

Although the current situation is very different from the Suez Canal blockade of 2021, which caused an estimated $6-$10 billion in global trade losses, it underlines the potential intensity of the economic impact if the regional crisis continues. While the escalation of the Middle East crisis will continue to impact global trade volume, the nature of the global response is likely to be marked by a broad shift toward trade diversification—in terms of logistics strategies and markets—rather than trade reduction, with a shift in priority toward near-shoring.

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In 2024, the world’s total oil demand is predicted to reach 105 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 103 million barrels per day in the entire year.

The global demand growth forecast for 2025 was also lowered by OPEC to 11.4 million barrels per day. The estimated global oil demand for 2025 is 105 points per day.

“Growth is expected to be bolstered by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries,” OPEC said in its monthly report, as reported by Zawya.

Earlier this month, in response to declining prices, OPEC+ postponed its plan to begin increasing output until April 2025. OPEC had maintained its 2024 outlook, which it had adopted in July 2023, until August.

While the forecasts for next year are related to the possible impact that will arise from US tariffs, OPEC claims that the downgrade for this year is due to more pessimistic data that was received in the third quarter.

The largest of the five cuts OPEC has made in its monthly reports since August is the 210,000 bpd cut in the 2024 figure. OPEC predicted a 2 to 25 million barrel per day increase in global demand in July.

“The bulk of this revision is made in the third quarter, taking into account recently received bearish data for the third quarter,” OPEC said in the report.

According to OPEC, China, India, other Asian nations, the Middle East, and Africa were all involved in the most recent downgrade. From 760,000 bpd in July, OPEC now projects a 430,000 bpd increase in Chinese oil demand in 2024.

After decades as the primary force behind rising oil consumption, China’s imports of crude oil are expected to reach a peak as early as 2025 as the world’s largest consumer of crude oil starts to see a decline in demand for transportation fuel.

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Brent crude futures had increased 9 cents, or 0.1%, to USD 73.40 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures had increased 14 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 69.53 per barrel.

According to data from the American Petroleum Institute, market sources reported that US crude oil stocks increased by 4.75 million barrels during the week ending November 15.

On the other hand, gasoline stocks decreased by 248 million barrels. Additionally, according to the sources, distillate stocks dropped, losing 688,000 barrels.

The rising conflict between Ukraine and Russia, two of the world’s largest oil producers, seems to have helped prices.

Moscow said Ukraine was the first to strike Russian territory with US ATACMS missiles. Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, set the stage for a potential nuclear assault.

“This marks a renewed build-up in tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war and brings back into focus the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market,” ANZ analysts said in a note to clients.

Oil price sentiment was bolstered by indications that China, the world’s largest importer of crude, may have increased its oil purchases this month following a period of weak imports.

“China’s crude imports are expected to reach or nearly reach record highs by the end of November, according to data from vessel tracker Kpler,” Zawya reported.

China’s weak imports so far this year have caused oil prices to decline; Brent has dropped 20% from its peak of over USD 92 per barrel in April.

Meanwhile, the largest producer of olive oil in the world is forecasting a cooling of prices after the sector experienced record prices at the beginning of the year due to the combined effects of high interest rates and inflation in the value chain, as well as drought caused by climate change on the harvest.

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According to the minister, Jordan imported about five million barrels of oil between May 4 and July 30, 2023, from the state-of-the-art storage facility in Kirkuk, Iraq. The transport was made possible by tankers from both Jordan and Iraq, guaranteeing a steady supply of oil to the Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company (JPRC).

Importing crude oil from Iraq, according to Kharabsheh, is in line with the original Memorandum of Understanding that the governments of Jordan and Iraq signed on May 4, 2023.

As per the terms of this deal, Jordan buys Kirkuk crude from Iraq at a price that is equivalent to the monthly average of Brent crude oil minus USD 16 per barrel.

This price structure covers 7% of Jordan’s crude oil demand while taking into consideration variations in quality and transportation expenses.

The Iraqi Cabinet has given its approval for an increase in the daily allotment of crude oil to Jordan, commencing in August 2023, from 10,000 barrels to 15,000 barrels. The JPRC in Zarqa will receive these extra quantities via truck from the storage facility in Kirkuk, according to Petra, the Jordan News Agency.

Due to this extension, Iraq’s monthly oil exports to Jordan have risen from 300,000 barrels to about 450,000 barrels or almost 10% of Jordan’s total crude oil needs.

Noting that the extension covers the remaining undelivered quantities mentioned in the original agreement, Kharabsheh emphasised that the Memorandum of Understanding has been extended for an additional three months while keeping the same terms and conditions. This ensures a consistent supply of oil.

Iman Awad, the ministry’s director of oil and gas, mentioned that plans are in motion to draft a new Memorandum of Understanding between Jordan and Iraq, strengthening their existing energy cooperation.

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According to Shana, Iran’s official news agency for the oil industry, the deals pertaining to six oil fields were signed by the oil ministry and Iranian businesses in a ceremony that was televised on state TV.

Iran has not waited for foreign contractors and investors, according to Oil Minister Javad Owji during the signing.

“Despite a year filled with ups and downs for the nation’s oil industry, exports were unaffected,” the official remarked.

Well Services of Iran (WSI) and Well Services Development of Petro Iranian Arvand (PIA) were given a USD 245 million contract by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to develop the oil fields of Soumar, Saman, and Delavaran. Over a 20-year period, the wells are anticipated to yield 404 million barrels of crude oil.

In order to start the second phase of development for the Masjed Soleyman oil field, NIOC also signed a USD 260 million contract with Sina Energy Development Company (SEDCO). The northern wing of the Masjed Soleyman oil field is to be developed and exploited over the course of a 14-year contract with the goal of producing 21 million barrels.

The oldest oil field in Iran and the Middle East, Masjed Soleyman, is situated in the southwest region of Khuzestan.

According to Shana, the estimated amount of oil in place (OIP) is 6.2 billion barrels, with approximately 1.2 billion barrels located in its northern wing.

A contract for the second phase of the Azar oil field’s development, involving direct investments of USD 1.04 billion, was signed by NIOC and Sarvak Azar Engineering and Development Company. In 20 years, the deal is expected to add 177 million barrels of crude oil.

Due to Western sanctions, Iran’s oil production and exports have been restricted. Iran can produce about 31.8 million barrels of crude oil per day, according to the IEA’s most recent estimate.

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The business in January 2024 announced the production of its first oil find in Egypt, the Al Wasl field (North Safa), which began at a rate of 3,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

With an oil reserve surpassing 95 million barrels, the field was discovered in 2021 and ranks among the largest oil discoveries made in the Gulf of Suez over the previous 20 years.

To increase crude output and better penetrate the Egyptian market, the business announced that it will step up its oil exploration and expansion efforts in the Gulf of Suez by developing fields and repairing wells.

The statement stated, “Dragon Oil intends to permanently increase the scope of petroleum discoveries in Egypt over long-term periods, especially since the Egyptian market is currently considered one of the most economically attractive markets in the Middle East.”

Al Wasl Field

Dragon Oil said it will spend USD 200 million to develop the Al Wasl oil field. By 2026, the company hopes to have drilled more wells and more than doubled the daily production.

Establishing a new offshore production platform, extending an electrical and production line to run oil production pumps, and implementing a water injection project to sustain high production rates are all part of the project.

By linking the second well south of Belayim 293-6 with the production line this month, the business hopes to finish the Al Wasl field’s development work “as soon as possible” and increase the platform’s daily production capacity to 6,000 barrels of crude oil.

The company announcement stated further, “Dragon Oil will drill seven more wells throughout the following two years, aiming to attain 15,000 barrels per day of crude oil production from the Al Wasl field, according to the plan agreed upon with the Egyptian authorities.”

“The massive Al Wasl project embodies our readiness to finish the path of growth and expansion in the Egyptian market during the current year by building fields and repairing wells to increase the production of Gulf of Suez oil fields and by intensifying exploration and expansion in several regions,” the market note concluded.

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Even though paying less for gas may be beneficial, the market impact goes beyond just decreased consumer pricing. The global economy is affected in a rippling manner by changes in oil prices. One of the biggest casualties is the oil industry itself. The stakeholders’ profit margins go down significantly as they sell their products for less money, resulting in job losses, output decrease or possibly bankruptcy. It encompasses both the oil companies and the countries whose economies heavily rely on oil exports.

In response to the failure of two prestigious American banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, oil prices fell in the first quarter of 2023. Investors are in a difficult position too. The fear about the impact of this banking sector crisis spreading to the wider financial sector caused hefty projections for oil demand to be quashed. Analysts are now cautioning that the oil market will be “locked in a surplus for most of the first half of the year” because of persistent “contagion” risks brought on by the turmoil in the banking sector.

The US inflation rate, since 2022, reached its highest level in 40 years as a result of the sanctions placed on Moscow amid the Ukraine war. To combat this, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to their highest level since 2007. Although the inflation has come down below 4%, there are talks around further rate increases, even though some have projected that the banking crisis would likely end shortly and that the oil price would rebound too. The impact of the interest rate rises is also difficult to forecast and may continue to draw attention to specific financial market segments as well as vulnerabilities brought on by excessive debt and stretched asset valuations.

Low oil prices may be tough for nations that export it, but the phenomenon will be manageable, according to a WEF analysis, because “with price changes, there is a shift in profiting between oil-producing and oil-consuming countries.”

To mitigate the effects on their economies, oil exporting nations will go for options like reducing government spending, boosting taxes, ending subsidies, and implementing measures to tighten the financial system like hiking interest rates.

In addition, the US CPI has significantly grown, placing stress on the economy at a time when the Federal Reserve is already grappling with inflation among banking issues. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest and inflation rates, the oil market may recover. However, it appears that the market is currently either bracing for a future recession or that one or more funds are being forced to raise cash and reduce risk on their books as a result of worries about liquidity in the wake of bank collapses.

Tracing the ‘hope’

Large investors like Warren Buffet, who boosted his investment in the oil business Occidental Petroleum. are drawn to lower oil prices. Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway now owns a 22.2% stake in the corporation as a result of the most recent acquisitions. It has purchased more than 200 million shares worth $12.2 billion. The Chinese market will likely be the source of demand in 2023.

China is the world’s largest consumer of oil, therefore an increase in Chinese demand might help oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a two million barrel daily rise in oil demand by 2023. The IEA Executive Director asserted that “With the Chinese economy now recovering, it will have major implications for oil and gas market balances.” The OECD has also increased its projection for world economic growth by 0.2% points, from 2.2% in November to 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2024.

China’s recovery

Despite the upward revision of growth projections, the OECD issued a warning that the recovery is still fragile and that the risks are still disproportionately to the downside. According to customs statistics, China’s crude oil imports dropped 18.8% to the lowest daily rate since January in July 2023 as major exporters reduced their international exports and domestic reserves kept growing.

The largest oil importer in the world imported 10.29 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in July, according to figures from the General Administration of Customs.

The second-highest import volume on record was reached in June at 12.67 million bpd.

However, despite China’s economy being severely impacted by widespread COVID outbreaks and massive lockdowns a year earlier, oil imports were 17% greater than the 8.79 million bpd brought in at that time.

Some 325.8 million metric tons of crude were imported during the first seven months of the year, an increase of 12.4% from the same time in 2022.

“The (month-on-month) decline was led by lower imports from the big-3 crude exporters, namely the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia, which have cut exports amid reduced production targets and/or higher domestic demand,” said Emma Li, a China crude oil analyst at Vortexa in Singapore.

Li pointed out that at the end of July, China’s onshore crude oil inventories were over 1.02 billion barrels, and that the steady increase in those stockpiles would enable Chinese refiners to reduce their imports in the months to come.

Despite the overall decrease in imports, data from consultancy Zhuochuang showed that state-owned refineries increased their processing rates in July to an average of 78%–82%, up 2-3% points from June.

The need for summer travel had been predicted to increase gasoline usage.

According to data from the Longzhong consultancy, domestic diesel inventories increased by around 2% while domestic gasoline inventories decreased by about 3% between mid-June and mid-July as sluggish export volumes and a downturn in the real estate industry continued to dampen demand.

Chinese oil product exports increased in July as a result of better fuel profit margins in Asia, which also supported higher processing rates.

Exports of refined petroleum increased in July 2023 from 4.51 million metric tons the month before by 55.8% to 5.31 million metric tons.

Some 10.31 million metric tons of natural gas were imported into China in July, an increase of 18.5% from 8.7 million a year earlier when importers reduced spot purchases due to high liquefied natural gas prices around the world.

In conclusion, the oil market is currently facing a complex web of factors that are influencing its dynamics.

The impact of the price fluctuations extends beyond the pump. Many oil businesses, especially those heavily reliant on higher oil prices, are grappling with reduced profits, potential job losses, decreased output, and even the threat of bankruptcy. The banking crisis and uncertainty in the financial sector have further exacerbated the situation, leading to cautious projections for oil demand and market surplus.

The broader economy is also feeling the effects, with the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates to counterbalance inflation. This move, however, brings its own set of uncertainties and potential repercussions, including impacts on specific financial segments and vulnerabilities arising from debt and asset valuations.

Amid the challenges, there are glimmers of hope. Key investors like Warren Buffet see opportunity in lower oil prices, and the recovery of the Chinese economy, as the world’s largest oil consumer, holds promise for increased oil demand. The International Energy Agency’s projection of a rise in oil demand by 2023, driven by China’s recovery, suggests a potential positive shift in the market.

However, caution remains. The recovery is still fragile, as evidenced by China’s cautious oil import trends and the ongoing risks associated with the pandemic. The world economy’s growth projections have been revised upwards, yet the OECD emphasises that the downside risks remain significant.

In this intricate landscape, the oil market’s future trajectory remains uncertain. It will likely depend on a delicate balance between geopolitical events, economic recovery, investor sentiment, and government policies. While challenges persist, the interplay of various factors also presents opportunities for adaptation, innovation, and growth across industries and economies.

Despite all the encouraging indicators, there is still a lot of uncertainty over the future of the oil industry, the recovery of China, the implications of the ongoing Ukraine conflict, and the geopolitical environment as a whole. It’s a waiting game, at least for the moment.

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In 2023, American oil exports reached a new high of 4.5 million barrels per day due to competitive pricing for US grades and China’s reopening following COVID-19, which increased oil demand globally.

According to data from Refinitiv Eikon and energy data provider Kpler, the tanker Sonangol Porto Amboim, carrying light sweet oil, departed Corpus Christi, Texas, on May 16 2023, for Saldanha Bay on the west coast of South Africa.

Kpler data show that Saudi Arabia, West and Central Africa, and South Africa are the primary sources of South Africa’s oil. However, since Russia invaded Ukraine, disruptions to oil flows and competitive pricing for U.S. crude have created new markets. According to U.S. customs data, South Africa received the last cargo of American oil in May 2021.

According to sources, Swiss commodities trader Glencore purchased the 850,000-barrel cargo of West Texas Light.

Nearly three years after a fatal explosion shut down operations and claimed the lives of two employees, Glencore’s majority-owned Astron Energy resumed production at its 100,000-barrel-per-day Cape Town refinery.

Regarding the shipment, Glencore declined to comment. However, Astron said the refinery restarted gradually and was operating at its intended capacity.

According to the refiner’s website, Astron, the second-largest retail petroleum network in southern Africa, obtains its oil from tankers discharging in Saldanha Bay and ships it by pipeline to the refinery in Cape Town.

The development comes after the recent incident where Iran seized an oil tanker named Advantage Sweet in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil passes.

The Turkish-operated, Chinese-owned tanker entered the Gulf of Oman after moving through the Strait of Hormuz and was reportedly bound for Houston, Texas carrying Kuwaiti crude oil for US energy firm Chevron Corp.

Tehran said the tanker collided with an unidentified Iranian vessel hours before its seizure, leading to several crew members falling overboard and going missing and others getting injured. The tanker then fled the scene and ignored radio calls for eight hours before its seizure based on a court order, the Iranian army said.

“We repeatedly called on the vessel to stop so we can conduct a more comprehensive investigation, but there was no cooperation,” Mostafa Tajodini, deputy for operations at the Iranian navy, told state media.

The Middle East-based US Navy Fifth Fleet called Iran’s actions a violation of international law, with Washington asking Tehran to immediately release the tanker.

“Iran’s continued harassment of vessels and interference with navigational rights in regional waters are a threat to maritime security and the global economy,” the US authorities said, adding this was at least the fifth commercial vessel taken by Iran in the past two years.

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