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OPEC further trims global oil demand outlook for 2024 & 2025

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OPEC maintained its prediction from September 2024 that the global economy would expand by 2.9% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2024, respectively

OPEC predicts that global oil consumption in 2024 will rise by 1.93 billion barrels per day, a decrease from an earlier estimate of 2.03 million bpd.

The alliance’s monthly report projects that, contrary to the previous prediction of 1.74 million bpd, global crude demand will increase by 1.64 million bpd in 2025.

The group has now undergone three consecutive downward revisions. According to the Vienna-based organisation, the revision was “primarily due to actual data received combined with slightly lower expectations” for certain regions.

In addition, OPEC maintained its prediction from September 2024 that the global economy would expand by 2.9% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2024, respectively.

The market is still far above the historical average of 11.4 million bpd observed prior to the pandemic, according to the organisation. This is mainly due to robust air and road travel, as well as expanding industrial, agricultural, and construction activities.

The International Energy Agency’s September 2024 estimate is still below OPEC’s oil demand growth forecast.

As a result of China’s economic slowdown and the growing popularity of electric vehicles, the IEA predicted that global oil demand would rise by 900,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 950,000 barrels per day the following year.

Global oil demand is predicted by OPEC to reach 104 million barrels per day in 2024 and 105 million barrels per day in 2025. Additionally, the alliance revised its estimate of Chinese market growth from 650,000 bpd to 580,000 bpd.

In September, OPEC revised upward its medium- and long-term global oil demand forecasts in an annual outlook amid these revisions.

The growth was led by the Middle East, Africa, and India, and the shift to cleaner fuels and electric vehicles was slower. World crude demand is expected to reach 111 million bpd in 2028 and 112.3 million bpd in 2029, according to the alliance’s annual report.

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