In response to the recent tariffs on Chinese imports implemented by the United States, analysts have become increasingly concerned about the future of the PC market, as global trends and geopolitical challenges continue to influence the industry. As a result, IDC has adjusted its forecast and reduced the projected market growth to only 3.7%.
“Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US, combined with subdued demand, are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.
In addition, the market at Canalys grew by 3.9% for the entire year of 2024, regaining some of its seasonal trends. According to their analysts, the market share of AI PCs could reach 35% in 2025, up from 23% in the last three months of 2024.
Canalys Analyst Kieren Jessop said, “Looming trade policy shifts in the US threaten to disrupt the market, which accounts for around one in three shipped PCs, and could hamper the upcoming commercial refresh cycle while dampening an already muted consumer outlook.”
“So far, the Trump administration has placed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, which accounts for a significant majority of laptops shipped to the US,” Jessop added.
Additionally, IDC is concerned about the general consumer PC market, which expanded by only 2% in 2024. The shift to Windows 11 was characterised by the company as “modest” because, according to Statcounter, the flagship OS only makes up about 37% of all Windows installations, compared to 60% for Windows 10.
IDC projects yearly growth rates of less than 1% through 2029, following calendar year 2025. For 2025–2029, the compound annual growth rate is expected to average just 0.4%.
Meanwhile, United States President Donald Trump has now imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, in addition to other countries.
Warren Buffett, the renowned investor, has spoken out against Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, calling them “an act of war, to some degree.”