Cameroon stands at a crossroads. President Paul Biya, who has ruled since 1982, is 91 years old. He is the oldest leader in Africa, surpassed only by President Teodoro Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea. For decades, Biya has held a tight grip on power. To most Cameroonians, 60% of whom are under 35, he is the only leader they have ever known.
Recently, rumours about Biya’s health have spread like wildfire, prompting the government to ban any public discussion on the topic. This isn’t new as whenever Biya vanishes from public view, people start talking. His most recent public appearance, at Yaounde Airport on October 21, ended weeks of speculation about his death.
The country depends on Biya’s presence rather than strong institutions, making succession a daunting task. Questions linger: Who will lead after Biya? How will his departure affect a country that has known no one else? What happens to the millions struggling with poverty, corruption, and poor infrastructure?
Cameroon is rich in natural resources. It lies at a key crossroads between West and Central Africa, along the Atlantic coast. Yet more than half of Cameroonians live in poverty, and nearly 38% are severely impoverished. The country’s wealth has not translated into widespread prosperity.
This disparity is rooted in corruption and mismanagement. When Biya took power in 1982, he promised a “New Deal” to fight corruption. At first, his stance seemed genuine, and Cameroonians were hopeful. But by the early 1990s, Cameroon topped the world’s corruption lists. Biya’s promise of reform had become empty words.
Today, corruption is part of life. Transparency International ranks Cameroon 140th out of 180 countries for corruption. Biya’s anti-corruption drives are often seen as a tool to silence rivals, not a real effort to clean up government. His ethnic group, the Beti people, hold many senior positions despite being a minority. This nepotism has fuelled resentment and division, breeding a kleptocratic state where few benefit at the cost of many.
Crisis and instability ruling the roost
Cameroon became a federation in 1960, bringing together French-speaking and English-speaking regions. This union was supposed to reflect a unity of diversity. For a time, it worked. But disenchantment, especially among the Anglophone southwest, led to unrest in 2016. What began as peaceful protests turned into a violent conflict now known as the “Anglophone Crisis.”
Thousands have died, and tens of thousands more have been displaced. The government responded to early protests with force, escalating the crisis. The Anglophone regions, feeling neglected and marginalised, have called for autonomy, language rights, and even independence.
In an attempt to ease tensions, the government created the Commission of Bilingualism and Multiculturalism and offered “special status” to the troubled regions. However, these gestures failed to solve the underlying issues. The Anglophone population remains marginalised, and the violence continues. As Biya’s era ends, this unresolved crisis poses a real threat to national unity.
Biya focused on consolidating power, not building institutions. His rule has left Cameroon without structures strong enough to handle change. The country has no clear mechanism for succession. It is uncertain who could take Biya’s place or if any successor has been groomed. Nepotism and favouritism have ensured loyalty to Biya the man, not democratic principles or the law. When Biya is gone, this loyalty may fracture, risking chaos.
The military could also play a major role. It has been a key support for Biya. In times of uncertainty, the military might step in “to safeguard the republic.” If this happens, Cameroon could face a military dictatorship, which would be disastrous for any hope of democratic reform.
Biya has used every tool at his disposal to secure his position, making his presidency effective for life. This has prevented the coups or revolutions seen in Chad, Niger, and the Central African Republic. In 1992, Biya agreed to a multiparty system under pressure. But this was democracy in name only. Biya manipulated the system to weaken the opposition. The use of legal and extralegal means ensured that no real challenge to his power emerged. As a result, Cameroon’s political landscape is fragmented. There is no unified opposition ready to take charge if Biya leaves power.
Foreign role in the region
Regionally, Cameroon is important. It has been a key ally of France and the United States in the fight against Boko Haram. The fight against terrorism has made Cameroon central to regional stability, with military support from its international allies. This cooperation has helped solidify Cameroon as a partner in regional security.
Biya also managed to settle the Bakassi Peninsula dispute with Nigeria peacefully, avoiding regional instability. His diplomatic efforts, while overshadowed by his domestic failures, helped maintain stability in the region.
But as Biya’s reign ends, it’s unclear if these alliances will hold. France’s political and economic ties may continue, but a power struggle or internal chaos in Cameroon could change priorities. International stakeholders want a stable Cameroon, especially given their investments in the region.
Though Cameroon gained independence from France in 1960, Paris has maintained strong ties, which has shaped the trajectory of the country for decades. This ongoing influence is deeply intertwined with Cameroon’s current state of governance and economic disparity.
One of the most significant symbols of France’s neo-colonial control is Cameroon’s use of the CFA Franc. The currency, created during colonial times and still controlled by France, ties Cameroon’s economic fortunes closely to those of France. Cameroon, like many other countries in Central and West Africa, must deposit 50% of its foreign exchange reserves with the French Treasury, effectively limiting its monetary sovereignty.
The CFA Franc has a fixed exchange rate with the Euro, which benefits French businesses and investors while stifling economic autonomy in Cameroon. This system created a scenario where France remains the major beneficiary of Cameroon’s natural resources and trade.
France is Cameroon’s leading trade partner, with trade between the two countries amounting to over 1.3 billion euros annually, according to France’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
French companies have a dominant presence in Cameroon’s key sectors. This overwhelming economic presence of French corporations means that much of the profit generated from Cameroon’s resources ends up overseas rather than benefiting the local economy.
France has supported Paul Biya’s government for decades, providing diplomatic backing even as corruption, human rights abuses, and nepotism have become defining features of his rule. The French want to maintain its influence in Cameroon. It is this backing that has allowed Biya to remain in power for over four decades, manipulating political structures to his advantage.
Moreover, France has also provided military aid to Cameroon, often under the guise of fighting terrorism, such as the threat posed by Boko Haram. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), France has provided arms and military equipment to Cameroon over the past decades, bolstering the government’s ability to control dissent domestically. This military support helps sustain the current power structures, which benefit France economically and politically.
France also exerts influence through development loans and financial aid. While these funds are often portrayed as a form of benevolence or development assistance, they come with strings attached that primarily benefit French interests. In Cameroon, 90% of the development loans from France are directed towards projects in Francophone regions, further entrenching the inequality between French-speaking and Anglophone regions. This practice has deepened the divisions within the country, contributing to the ongoing Anglophone crisis.
For instance, between 2010 and 2020, France provided over 2.5 billion euros in development loans to Cameroon. These loans often require French contractors, reinforcing France’s economic control over key projects, particularly in infrastructure and energy sectors. This pattern of lending has led to a cycle of debt and dependency, preventing Cameroon from exercising full control over its development agenda.
The direct impact of France’s neo-colonial policies is evident in the socioeconomic conditions experienced by most Cameroonians. Despite its resource wealth, Cameroon ranks 153rd out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index, with a significant portion of its population living below the poverty line. The influence of French companies, the economic straitjacket of the CFA Franc, and conditional development loans have all contributed to a situation where the economic benefits of Cameroon’s resources do not reach its people. Instead, they benefit French corporations and the political elite in Cameroon who maintain close ties to France.
The Anglophone regions, in particular, have suffered from this inequitable distribution of resources. The French-driven policies that favour Francophone areas have exacerbated regional tensions, contributing to the long-standing Anglophone crisis. The fact that most development funds are concentrated in Francophone regions fuels resentment and conflict, further destabilising the country.
France’s neo-colonial influence over Cameroon is pervasive, affecting everything from its economy to its political stability. The use of the CFA Franc, economic dominance by French corporations, political backing of Biya’s regime, and conditional development loans have all contributed to keeping Cameroon tethered to France. This relationship has not fostered development or democracy in Cameroon but rather entrenched inequality, corruption, and economic dependency.
As Cameroon faces the uncertainty of a post-Biya era, the legacy of France’s influence will continue to be a significant factor. For true progress to occur, Cameroon must find a way to break free from the neo-colonial dynamics that have held it back for decades. Without loosening these ties, any attempts at reform will be limited, and the vision of a prosperous, independent Cameroon will remain out of reach.
The Future: Uncertain, but with hope
Cameroon stands on the edge of a new era. Biya’s departure could bring opportunities for change. Some hope that his exit will lead to reforms, greater transparency, and a crackdown on corruption. But without structural changes, these hopes may prove hollow. Biya’s legacy includes weakened institutions and a lack of democratic preparation for what comes next.
Poverty is widespread, infrastructure is crumbling, and economic prospects are bleak. Any future government must address the needs of the people. The Douala port and railway links may be modernised, but the rest of the country remains underdeveloped. Corruption must be fought head-on, and the wealth of the nation must benefit all its people, not just a select few.
In the Anglophone regions, there must be real dialogue. Reconciliation is key to bridging the divide between Anglophones and Francophones. Autonomy or even a federal system may need to be considered to resolve these long-standing grievances. Without addressing these issues, peace will remain out of reach.