The proposed hike in capital gains tax (CGT) in the United Kingdom is raising significant concerns among financial analysts, investors, and policymakers. While higher CGT might seem like a viable solution to plug the 22-billion-pound public finance gap, its potential to discourage investment could create a significant drag on economic growth.
Since the Brexit referendum in 2016, British equities have struggled, losing over USD 100 billion in net outflows from equity funds. Now, a further hike in CGT risks exacerbating existing challenges, including declining equity ownership among pension funds and waning investor interest in domestic stocks.
What Is Capital Gains Tax?
Capital Gains Tax is levied on the profit realised from the sale of assets, including equities, property, and other investments. In the UK, CGT has different rates depending on the income bracket of the individual and the type of asset being sold.
Investors currently pay rates of up to 20% on gains from financial assets, which are lower compared to headline tax rates in most other European economies like France, Germany, and Italy. Nonetheless, there are growing discussions about increasing CGT to help fill a significant budget deficit in the UK.
United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pointed to taxpayers with the “broader shoulders” being asked to contribute more to close a 22-billion-pound (USD 28.58 billion) gap in public finances. This has raised fears that the capital gains tax rates could increase, possibly targeting both wealthy non-domiciled (“non-dom”) individuals and average investors. This move is seen as part of a broader fiscal strategy to shore up public revenues and address the national debt accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic and recent economic crises.
Non-doms—individuals who live in the United Kingdom but pay little or no British tax on their overseas wealth—contributed nearly 9 billion pound (USD 11.6 billion) to the British economy in 2023. However, some wealthy non-doms have already signalled that they may relocate to avoid additional taxation. The potential for an exodus of this wealthy demographic has raised concerns about the risk of asset fire sales and decreased overall tax revenues.
Waning Interest In British Equities
Rising CGT could potentially drive retail investors further away from British equities, which have already seen a steady decline since the Brexit vote. British equities have struggled to keep pace with global peers. Over USD 100 billion has flowed out of United Kingdom-based equity funds on a net basis in the past four years, according to data from the London Stock Exchange.
British stocks have faced multiple challenges in recent years, including the uncertainties surrounding Brexit, stagnating growth, and investor perceptions of less favourable returns compared to other global markets.
This has been compounded by a decline in the level of domestic stock ownership among institutional investors. Pension funds and insurers held 45.7% of all United Kingdom-listed shares in 1997. Today, that figure has fallen drastically to a record low of just 4.2%, according to the Office for National Statistics.
This drop-off is significant as institutional investors like pension funds and insurance companies provide the backbone for a stable, long-term demand for domestic equities. Any increase in CGT could further deter these investors from participating in the market, compounding an already worrying trend.
The potential increase in CGT poses a major risk for average British investors who are already risk-averse. According to financial experts, individuals who shy away from equities are likely to have smaller retirement savings than those who invest, given that stocks offer higher long-term returns compared to bonds and other safe-haven assets.
By raising CGT, the government risks making equity investments even less appealing to the general public, thereby reducing long-term financial security for millions of citizens.
Data from Barclays found that 13 million British adults, who already have more than six months’ worth of income saved in rainy-day funds, are sitting on 430 billion pounds of “possible investments” in cash. Instead of investing these funds in productive assets like equities, many prefer to keep them in cash, partially due to fears of high taxation on any gains realised.
Fear Of A ‘Doom Loop’
The financial industry is warning about the unintended consequences of the proposed tax hikes, leading to fears of a “doom loop” in UK stock markets. If more individuals, both wealthy and average, start selling off assets in anticipation of higher taxes, this could cause a significant drop in share prices, forcing others to sell as well and potentially triggering a self-reinforcing downward spiral.
Nick Lawson, a portfolio manager at Julius Baer International, noted that some clients had already decided to cash in their gains on UK stocks to avoid future higher CGT rates and to protect themselves from possible losses due to forced selling across the market.
This lack of confidence in domestic equities among investors of all wealth brackets could create an environment where investment capital is scarce, precisely when UK companies need it most.
According to the Capital Markets Industry Taskforce, the British economy needs an additional 100 billion pound per year in investment over the next decade to sustain a 3% annual economic growth rate.
However, uncertainty over fiscal policy, including potential CGT hikes, has already contributed to UK equity funds reporting nearly USD 6 billion in outflows in September 2024 alone, placing them in the bottom 10 of all fund categories tracked by Lipper that month.
Canaccord Genuity fund manager Eustace Santa Barbara said that budget uncertainty and fears over CGT have only exacerbated the shortage of available capital for UK companies. Many firms that are already struggling to secure funding are likely to find it even harder to do so if retail and institutional investors are scared off by tax changes that increase their cost of taking risks.
The UK’s domestic business environment is at a critical juncture. With many companies looking for investment to support growth, innovation, and sustainability initiatives, an increase in CGT could deter capital inflows from both local and foreign investors.
This is especially important considering that, according to the Capital Markets Industry Taskforce, such investments are vital to achieving the country’s economic objectives over the next decade.
The potential rise in CGT has also contributed to concerns among entrepreneurs. According to research from Evelyn Partners, one in four British entrepreneurs have fast-tracked business exits over the past 12 months due to fears over potential CGT hikes. This trend could further contribute to the ongoing lull in UK listing activity, hampering the ability of businesses to scale, innovate, and create jobs.
Increasing the highest tax bands can be unpopular even among those not directly affected by the increase, as it creates a perception of reduced incentives to take risks, innovate, or build businesses. Kevin O’Shea, director of wealth planning at RBC Wealth Management, warned that curtailing such ambitions across the broader population could reduce economic dynamism and have significant long-term ramifications.
Need For A Balanced Approach
The rhetoric of deteriorating public finances and a potentially more burdensome tax regime has undermined confidence across the entire wealth spectrum. Investors, entrepreneurs, and institutional fund managers are all reacting cautiously to potential policy shifts.
The challenge for the government is to strike a careful balance: to generate the necessary revenue without stifling investment or discouraging savings and risk-taking among the wider population.
Antonia Medlicott, CEO of Investing Insiders, emphasised that the government needs to ensure that the changes do not accidentally drive away those whom they are trying to encourage to invest more. The UK economy depends on vibrant capital markets, and those markets need participants, both wealthy and average investors, to thrive.
Institutional ownership of UK equities has reached historically low levels, while retail investors are keeping significant amounts of cash out of the market. Combined with fears of a “doom loop” and accelerated business exits, the proposed CGT hike could create a chilling effect on investment, stifling growth and innovation when the United Kingdom needs it most.
A balanced approach is required to ensure that the broader population remains incentivised to invest, innovate, and take risks, ensuring long-term financial stability and economic growth. The government’s challenge lies in crafting policies that bolster public finances without compromising the future of the UK’s capital markets and economic potential.