The ongoing Middle East conflict, hammering of the energy infrastructure, and the near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which enables transportation of over one-fifth of global oil and LNG exports, have resulted in a severe energy shock, casting a cloud over global inflation and GDP prospects.
Antony Froggatt, Senior Director for Aviation, Climate, Energy, and Shipping at T&E, a Brussels-based NGO advocating clean transport and energy, told International Finance, “Many forecasters, such as the IMF (If energy prices sustain just a 10% increase over one year, this would add 0.4 percentage point to inflation and slow economic growth by 0.1%-0.2%,) and Fitch, suggest that higher energy prices will negatively affect global inflation and reduce global growth. The extent of these will depend on how high prices get, and how long they remain high.”
Jan Rosenow, Professor of Energy and Climate Policy at Oxford University and Senior Associate at Cambridge University, said, “The short-term pain is real. Higher inflation, squeezed household budgets, and recession risk in energy-intensive economies. But the adjustment mechanisms are also kicking in: strategic reserve releases, demand destruction, and accelerated supply from non-Gulf producers. The deeper concern is duration. A shock that lasts months reshapes investment decisions in ways that a spike lasting weeks does not.”
Clean energy pivot: A Must For Asia Now
In 2026, Asia has become the Europe of 2022. Back then, Russia, in response to the Western sanctions for the Ukraine war, significantly cut natural gas supplies to the continent, resulting in high energy prices and a cost-of-living crisis. Asia, which buys more than 80% of the crude that transits the Strait of Hormuz, is now facing an “energy emergency.”
This could prompt Asia to have a re-look at renewables and initiatives to future- proof both its energy security and economic outlook.
Froggatt commented, “I would argue that renewables have been a necessity for some time, and the economic case for them is even stronger now. As far back as 2020, the International Energy Agency called solar PV the ‘cheapest source of electricity in history’. Since then, the costs of not only renewables (solar and wind), but also storage options, particularly batteries, have continued to fall.”
Rosenow remarked, “Each successive shock – 2022, and now this – makes the economic and security case for domestic clean energy harder to ignore. Renewables are not just cheaper in many markets; they are now the geopolitically safer choice. The question is no longer whether to accelerate the transition but how fast institutions can move.”
EV: The Best Starting Point
Stating that higher fossil fuel prices affect consumers’ cost of living and the balance of payments of importing countries, Froggatt believes episodes like the 1970s global oil price spikes, and the European energy crisis in 2022 will only motivate policymakers to accelerate their efforts to limit their dependence on fossil fuels for economic and supply security reasons.
“We saw this in the EU with the introduction of the ‘Fit for 55’ package in 2022 to accelerate the transition away from imported fossil fuels. However, the majority of these measures will take time to have an effect. If we want to really reduce dependency on fossil fuel, structural changes with new investment are needed, particularly in infrastructure, such as the grids and buildings,” he stated.
Rosenow, on the other hand, remarked, “The pressure is certainly there. Asia bears the heaviest volumetric burden from Hormuz disruptions, and governments that were already energy-insecure are now facing acute supply anxiety. I’d expect faster permitting of renewables, more serious electrification policy, and renewed interest in long-term LNG alternatives – though the pace will vary significantly by country.”
To deal with the “energy emergency,” Asian countries are advocating solutions like a four-day workweek and preventing unnecessary travel to save fuel. This might make electric vehicles more attractive.
Froggatt says, “I would assume that sales will continue to increase. Globally, only around 10% of car sales are electric, but in leading countries, such as China and Vietnam, we are already seeing over 40% of car sales being electric. Consequently, as the cost of electric vehicles continues to fall and charging infrastructure becomes more available and robust, the pace of sales growth will accelerate, especially in an era of high fossil fuel prices.”
Froggatt also pointed out that in Europe, car manufacturers have failed to develop smaller, low-cost EVs fast enough. This is part of the reason why Chinese vehicles are entering the EU market so quickly.
“I think it is incumbent on all car manufacturers to make EVs to meet a variety of consumer requirements, which include those that are most affordable,” he said.
So, Asia should focus on the affordability factor, introducing tax credits for consumers, apart from setting up intensive charging networks.
“There have been significant cost reductions already. And in many markets, EVs are close to or at cost-parity over their lifetime. Further cost reductions are needed to shift the market faster to EVs,” Rosenow noted, while adding, “The underlying drivers – policy support, falling battery costs, expanding model ranges – remain intact. Short-term, high fuel prices actually reinforce the EV value proposition. The risk to growth is on the supply side: critical mineral availability and manufacturing capacity. I don’t see a near-term peak, but the rate of growth will inevitably moderate as markets mature.”
The Continent Holds Promise
As per the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2025 report, two of Asia’s growth engines, China and India, along with the United States and Europe, were responsible for clean energy’s global expansion. Southeast Asia holds promises too. With an estimated 20 terawatts of untapped solar and wind potential (equivalent to around 55 times the region’s current total power capacity), the IEA sees the region as being more than capable of securing its energy security through the renewable route.
“The case for doing so has never been stronger. Energy import dependence is now visibly a security and economic liability, not just an environmental one. Southeast Asian economies, in particular, have strong renewable resource endowments – solar, geothermal, offshore wind – that remain underexploited. The Gulf crisis should be the catalyst for a serious regional rethink,” Rosenow said.
Froggatt too observed, “It is not just countries in Asia that can and should accelerate their use of renewable energy. Without accelerating deployment in the EU, the 2030 renewable energy target of at least 42.5% of energy from renewables will not be met. In developing countries, renewable energy is a way to meet rapidly increasing demand. Governments can take several steps to support the renewable energy sector. They can reduce construction risks and costs through accelerated planning, grants, soft loans, and other measures. Furthermore, they can implement support schemes, such as contracts for difference or feed-in tariffs, that create stable revenues. Governments can also help develop local supply chains, which provide additional price security and create local jobs. Finally, governments can set targets for renewable energy use, which gives confidence to investors.”
While noting that higher rates will raise the cost of capital precisely when deployment needs to accelerate, Rosenow advised, “The policy response matters enormously here: blended finance, public guarantees, and development bank support can reduce the risk premium that makes projects unfinanceable in the private market alone. Countries that get this right will attract investment; those that don’t will fall behind.”
Despite investing heavily in offshore wind, solar, and hydrogen strategies, Japan and South Korea still fulfil a massive chunk of their energy requirements through imported fossil fuels. Both of them are feeling the Hormuz pinch right now.
Rosenow said, “This crisis is a stress test they (Japan and South Korea) were always likely to fail. Both countries have made genuine progress in renewables but remain structurally dependent on imported fossil fuels in ways that leave them exposed to exactly this kind of shock. A serious reassessment of domestic generation capacity is overdue.”
Maybe, it’s time for Japan to shed the ghost of Fukushima.
Froggatt said, “Electricity generated from renewable energy is, under most conditions, far cheaper than that generated by nuclear power. In addition, renewable energy generation is much quicker to build. Therefore, although some countries may look again at nuclear power, I think that the higher costs and slowness to build – especially in countries that don’t already have a nuclear sector – will reduce the number of countries that actually start building nuclear power plants.”
Rosenow concluded, “The political and public calculus on nuclear in Japan was already shifting before this crisis, with several reactors being restarted. A prolonged Gulf disruption accelerates that conversation considerably. Energy security concerns now outweigh, for many policymakers, the post-Fukushima caution. I would expect Japan to move more decisively on restarts over the next few years.”