As shipping and energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, crude oil is set for its strongest weekly gain since the COVID‑19 outbreak in 2020. While Brent crude futures surged nearly 22% in the first week of March 2026, West Texas Intermediate, on the price front, has gained close to 27%. While Brent Crude’s rise broke the previous high of May 2020, when a record OPEC+ production cut agreement prompted a recovery from the pandemic lows, West Texas Intermediate’s upward trajectory surpassed the previous trend, witnessed in April 2020.
In fact, according to Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister, if the ongoing conflict forces Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks, it could drive oil to USD 150 a barrel. In response to the US-Israel joint strikes on its territory, which were launched on February 28, Tehran has stopped the traffic of tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of global daily oil supply. The conflict has also resulted in the disruption of output, as refineries and liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants are facing shutdowns.
“Every day the Strait stays closed, prices will go higher. The belief in the market was that Donald Trump might pull back at some point because he doesn’t want to have high oil prices, but the longer that takes, the clearer it is how much is at risk,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, while interacting with Reuters.
As per a White House official, the Donald Trump administration will likely announce measures to combat rising energy prices from the conflict.
In fact, the Treasury granted waivers on March 5 for companies to buy sanctioned Russian oil stored on tankers to ease supply constraints that have resulted in Asia-based refineries cutting fuel processing. As per the ship-tracking firm Kpler, about 30 million barrels of Russian oil are available and loaded on vessels in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea region and Singapore Strait, including volumes in floating storage.
Meanwhile, spot Middle East crude premiums have spiked to multi-year highs in the first week of March, a trend that also suggests higher costs for regional refiners, with the latter struggling to find immediate alternatives and facing potential output cuts, resulting in the global hike for crude prices.
Along with Brent crude futures and West Texas Intermediate, benchmark Dubai’s cash premium jumped to USD 19.63 per barrel, the reported highest from 2018. Premiums for Oman and Murban crude also soared, hitting USD 19.15 and USD 17.87 per barrel, respectively.
“Dubai spreads have surged as crude exports remain stranded within the Middle East Gulf, making price discovery nearly impossible. We expect Strait of Hormuz disruptions to continue through at least mid-March. There are concerns that Dubai price assessment will be nearly impossible once Oman- and Fujairah-loading Murban shipment volumes are exhausted this cycle,” said Richard Jones, a crude analyst at Energy Aspects, while interacting with Reuters.