In its latest outlook, American multinational energy giant Chevron says it is now expecting a USD 1.6 billion boost to USD 2.2 billion to its first-quarter upstream earnings versus the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by surging oil and gas prices from volatility linked to the Iran war.
The conflict between US-Israel and Iran, which began on February 28, has sent oil prices skyrocketing as much as 65%, with some energy production fields in the Middle East shutting down their activities after the Strait of Hormuz, that sees the passage of the 20%–25% of the world’s total seaborne oil and over 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, has been effectively closed, with Tehran using the marine chokepoint as a geopolitical leverage. Chevron’s upstream fourth-quarter 2025 earnings were USD 3.04 billion.
“Timing effects tied to hedging and accounting would weigh on first‑quarter results, cutting earnings and operating cash flow excluding working capital by USD 2.7 billion to USD 3.7 billion after tax, mainly downstream, though the impact is expected to reverse over time,” Exxon noted.
According to the LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) data, Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged USD 78.38 per barrel during the first quarter, up 24% from the previous three months.
As per Chevron’s latest estimates, net oil-equivalent production is expected to average 3.8 million to 3.9 million barrels per day, with volumes affected by downtime at Kazakhstan’s Tengizchevroil project and reduced output in parts of the Middle East.
Chevron’s rival, Exxon Mobil, too, is expecting a mixed bag from the Middle East crisis. While earnings in its upstream business could get a lift of about USD 1.4 billion compared with the Q4 2025, driven by higher oil prices, overall earnings could decline as a multi‑billion‑dollar hit related to financial hedging was expected, due to the Iran war.
Exxon estimates that disruptions to its UAE and Qatar assets will lower its global oil-equivalent production by 6% in the first quarter compared to Q4 2025, but higher commodity prices may provide a profit lift between USD 2.1 billion and USD 2.9 billion compared to the previous quarter. Iran’s missile attacks in Qatar impacted two LNG trains, which represented roughly 3% of Exxon’s 2025 upstream production.