Japan will have 36% fewer truck drivers than required to meet its logistical demands in 2030 due to its ageing population and the introduced reforms in 2024 aimed at curbing overwork, according to a recent study.
“The country’s road freight volume in the fiscal year ending March 2031 is projected to be 1.40 billion tons, declining slightly from 1.43 billion tons in fiscal 2020,” the Nomura Research Institute said.
“The number of truck drivers is expected to fall drastically from 660,000 in fiscal 2020 to 480,000 in fiscal 2030, 36% short of the workforce required to deliver 1.40 billion tons of cargo,” the think tank remarked.
To deal with the problem, the Asian country is going to build a “conveyor belt road,” automated cargo transport corridor, between the capital city of Tokyo and Osaka. Yuri Endo, a senior deputy director overseeing the effort at the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism told the media that the trial system will likely start test runs in 2027 or early 2028, with the full operations expected to start by the mid-2030s.
“We need to be innovative with the way we approach roads. The key concept of the auto flow-road is to create dedicated spaces within the road network for logistics, utilising a 24-hour automated and unstaffed transport system,” the official remarked.
“The key concept of the auto flow road is to create dedicated spaces within the road network for logistics, utilising a 24-hour automated and unmanned transportation system,” he added.
A computer-graphic video released by the government in October showed large containers on pallets, each capable of supporting up to a ton of produce, moving three side by side along an “auto flow road” in the middle of a motorway, with vehicles travelling in opposite directions on either side. Automated forklifts will load items into the containers as part of a network that links airports, railways and ports.
The system (intended for business deliveries) may be expanded to other routes as well if the trial runs are successful. However, human drivers will still be required to complete the last-mile deliveries.
When it comes to thinking out of the box to deal with the ‘freight-moving’ problem, Japan is not the only country thinking about such a maverick solution. Switzerland is reportedly planning an underground pathway to shift cargo while the United Kingdom is planning to build a fully automated system running on low-cost liber motors in London.
The number of citizens aged 65 and over, reached a staggering 36.25 million in Japan in 2024, constituting 29.3% of the overall population, according to the latest government data. Projections from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research suggest that by 2040, elderly individuals will make up 34.8% of the population. Additionally, Japan’s overall transport capacity will likely plunge by 34% by 2030.
Japan is facing an increasing labour shortage and it has been exacerbated in the present day after laws took effect earlier in 2024 that limit the amount of overtime that truck drivers can log. The move aims to avoid overwork and accidents to make the job tolerable.
In terms of having fewer truck drivers than required, the most notably affected regions will be Tohoku in Japan’s northeast and Shikoku in the west, which will both see shortfalls of 41%, followed by Kyushu in the southwest at 40%, according to the Nomura study.
An overtime limit of around 18 hours per week for drivers of trucks, taxis and buses was introduced in April 2024 as the Asian giant looks to improve working conditions in industries struggling with acute labour shortages.
However, there is concern that shorter working hours will translate into a drop in transport delivery capacity, a fall in service operators’ revenue and higher fees charged to shippers. Amid pay increases due to driver shortages and rising fuel prices, the Nomura study further estimated that transportation costs borne by shippers will rise 34% between fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2030.