“At least 16.5 mbd left the region between September 1 and 28, matching the pre-war average excluding Iran. That is 10.5 mbd above March’s monthly average,” said data from ship-tracking firm Kpler.

“The volume recovered. The route did not. Before the war, 83% of the region’s crude crossed Hormuz. In September, 40% left without crossing the strait. Of the crude that did cross in August, more than 70% changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman,” the agency noted, suggesting that the Middle East players might have been successful in adding the “Hormuz Plus One” scenario in their operational plannings.

Kpler, known for its methodology of combining vessel tracking, satellite imagery, draught changes, port data, market sources, and destination checks to prepare maritime traffic data, found tankers crossing the Strait with their AIS transponders off.

Other methods included cargoes changing ships in open water, while Saudi Arabia successfully diversified its energy exports between the Gulf and the Red Sea.

“When the war closed the strait on February 28, the seven-day average of non-Iranian crude leaving the region fell by 72% in 10 days, to 4.5 mbd. It has since climbed back through three exits instead of one. In September, 60% of the energy consignment (9.9 mbd) physically crossed Hormuz, mostly using shuttle tankers. 23% of them loaded outside the Strait, on the Gulf of Oman coast (primarily Fujairah). Another 17% left through the Red Sea,” Kpler said.

While the confirmed volume of crude oil crossing the Strait remains more than a quarter below pre-war levels, the alternative routes have more than doubled and account for almost exactly that difference.

“The workaround changed almost month by month. March belonged to the pipelines: 97% of non-Iranian crude leaving the region bypassed Hormuz. By May, a shuttle system had taken over the strait, with 86% of the crude crossing it changing tankers in the Gulf of Oman,” Kpler noted further.

Decoding the new normal

Saudi Arabia has pushed crude west through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

“Saudi Red Sea loadings rose from 0.75 mbd before the war to 4.3 mbd in June, as the Yanbu bypass took over from the Gulf coast. The UAE sent crude through the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah, where loadings rose from 1.1 mbd to 2.7 mbd,” Kpler said.

Kuwait, Qatar, and most of Iraq have no route around the Strait. Their recovery had to come back through Hormuz.

“Crude crossing the Hormuz came back dark. Iran designated transit corridors through the strait. On those corridors, tankers broadcasting their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal fell from 13 trades in March to none by May,” said Kpler, using its analysis of the shuttle corridors.

As of now, some of the dark tankers are not switching AIS back on until they are as far away as southern India.

“Kpler confirms each crossing from imagery, draught changes, and checks at the destination port. Radar sees through cloud, dust, and darkness: on 21 September, Sentinel-1 imagery showed five tankers loading at once at the Al Basrah Oil Terminal, none broadcasting a position there. Kpler identified all five,” the agency noted.

Instead of carrying a bulk of the crude on a single tanker, exporters are using the method of loading inside the Gulf, followed by using a shuttle tanker to cross Hormuz, transfer off Fujairah or Sohar, and then using the long-haul tanker to send the consignment to Asia or Europe.

“At least 63 VLCCs now work the shuttle trade. A core fleet of 35 has completed at least 3 round trips each, typically about 16 days apart, and accounts for three-quarters of shuttle voyages. Dozens of VLCCs now spend months shuttling between Gulf terminals and transfer points outside Hormuz rather than carrying crude to the final buyer,” Kpler noted.

The shuttles load mostly at Basrah, Zirku, Mina al-Ahmadi, and Das Island. Saudi crude has joined since July, though most Saudi cargoes sail direct on the national fleet. Transfers split almost evenly between Fujairah (54%) and Sohar (45%).

While the Gulf of Oman used to see very few incidents of crude changing the tankers, the Iran war has changed the practice.

More than 70% of the crude that crossed the Hormuz in August involved tanker changeovers.

“That share is now easing, as loadings outgrow transfer capacity and exporters shift to direct voyages,” Kpler said.

On September 20, VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) occupied all six offshore loading moorings at the Juaymah terminal.

Current status at the Red Sea

The Red Sea route also came under pressure during the initial months of the Iran war. On July 20, Yemen’s Houthis declared a maritime embargo on vessels serving Saudi ports.

Saudi crude through the Bab el-Mandeb strait then fell from above 3.5 mbd to a few hundred kbd in August, as Yanbu cargoes turned north through Egypt’s Sumed pipeline. On September 10, an attack on the East-West Pipeline halted energy loadings at the Yanbu port.

“Satellite imagery captured the switch from one coast to the other and back. On September 13, Kpler imagery showed no tankers at the Yanbu Crude and Muajjiz terminals. Seven days later, all six Juaymah moorings on the Gulf coast were occupied. By 27 September, as the pipeline restarted, all seven Yanbu berths were full again,” the agency noted.

The flows followed. Confirmed Saudi crude crossing Hormuz jumped from 0.7 mbd in August to 2.8 mbd in September.

The Kingdom led September with at least 5.1 mbd of confirmed crude, or 5.6 mbd with the Red Sea cargoes that are most likely Saudi. The UAE followed at 3.2 mbd and Iraq at 2.6 mbd.

“Another 3.4 mbd has left the region yet without a confirmed country, most of it crude that changed tankers in the Gulf of Oman without satellite imagery to confirm their respective shuttles,” Kpler said, while labeling the consignment “by geography” until the chain back to the loading terminal is proven.

The buyers changed less than the routes. In August, Asia still took 84% of the region’s crude, against 87% before the war. Egypt, Europe, and the wider Mediterranean nearly doubled their share to 16%, as Saudi Red Sea cargoes turned north.

India’s imports of Middle East crude are back at pre-war levels, near 3.0 mbd in September.

Iran excluded from “Hormuz Plus One”

While other Gulf producers have rebuilt routes around and through Hormuz, Iranian energy flows have moved with American policy rather than logistics.

In March, Iranian crude accounted for 1.6 mbd of the 1.8 mbd still crossing the Hormuz.

A US naval blockade from April 13 pushed crossings close to zero by May.

The June 17 MoU and a temporary oil waiver brought the ratio back to 1.1 mbd by the month-end, before the waiver was revoked and the blockade reimposed in July.

“Iranian crossings have stayed near zero since. Talks resumed on September 22, but Washington rejected an Iranian offer to reopen the strait within seven days if the blockade was lifted,” Kpler said.

Iranian crude stocks rose by about 20 mb from mid-February to late May, then drew down as exports resumed in June, and have held near 67 mb since mid-August.

Iranian crude appears to be hiding among the barrels without a confirmed country. More than half of those with a known destination went to India, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Europe. Since March 2025, those markets have taken just 4 mb of Iranian crude, against 382 mb for China,” the agency said.

Iran, on average, used to export 1.7 mbd oil before the war. The absence of Iranian oil explains the difference between September’s export levels, which match pre-war levels when excluding Iran, and those that reach 91% when including it.

Tanker still facing attacks

However, attacks on tankers continued in and around the ‌Strait of ⁠Hormuz, with at least seven incidents reported, shipping intelligence firm Marisks said in a report on Saturday.

The enormous crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile while operating in the Strait, causing a fire onboard the tanker.

As per the Kpler data, Kazimah III was last seen discharging two million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at ⁠the Ras Markaz port on the coast of Oman on September 17.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz ⁠or in the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

Marisks said merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat” given the recent sharp increase in traffic.

“Current intelligence suggests that the recent pattern of incidents may not necessarily represent deliberate targeting of ⁠individually selected merchant vessels,” the shipping intelligence firm noted.

“Instead, available information indicates the possibility that Iranian forces are launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area, or ‘kill box,’ with weapons potentially acquiring and locking onto available radar signatures within that area,” it concluded.

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