According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is projected to become the world’s largest generator of solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity per capita by 2031, surpassing Australia as its renewable energy expansion accelerates.
Solar PV generation in the UAE is forecast to exceed 4,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person by 2031, compared with about 1,500 kWh in 2025, the IEA said in its Renewables 2026 report.
The distinction is important: the forecast does not mean the UAE will produce more solar electricity in absolute terms than larger countries such as China. It measures annual solar generation relative to population, placing the UAE among the world’s leading economies.
Australia is projected to generate about 3,600 kWh per person by 2031, followed by Oman at 3,300 kWh, Bulgaria at 2,750 kWh, and Qatar at 2,700 kWh. Greece, Austria, Spain, China, and Chile are also expected among the 10 leading countries. The global average is forecast at about 800 kWh per person.
The UAE’s improved outlook reflects plans to expand solar capacity and raise its clean energy ambitions. The IEA points to the expansion of Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park and the country’s more ambitious clean energy target.
The UAE raised its target in January 2026 to meet 35% of its energy needs from clean sources by 2031, up from an earlier goal of 32% by 2030, the report said. The target covers renewables and nuclear power, rather than solar alone.
Dubai’s flagship solar park is central to the expansion. Developed by the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA), it has an installed capacity of about 3,860 megawatts (MW). DEWA aims to raise this to more than 8,000MW by 2030, above its original 5,000MW target.
The seventh phase, now out for tender, is designed to add 2,000MW of photovoltaic capacity and a 1,400MW battery storage system with six hours of capacity. Batteries can help address solar power’s intermittency by storing electricity for use after sunset.
Abu Dhabi is also expanding its solar portfolio. The 2GW Al Dhafra plant, inaugurated in 2023, is among the world’s largest single-site solar facilities. Projects in the pipeline include the 1.5GW Al Ajban solar plant. The IEA has also highlighted a major solar-and-storage project designed to provide round-the-clock clean electricity.
The expansion comes as electricity demand rises. In its Electricity 2026 analysis, the IEA estimated that gas accounted for about 65% of UAE power generation in 2025, while nuclear supplied around 24%. Renewables accounted for about 11%.
The agency expects renewable generation to grow by an average of 18% a year between 2026 and 2030, meeting all additional electricity demand over the period. Gas is expected to remain the largest source, although its share is projected to fall to 58% by 2030.
The regional outlook is also changing. Renewable energy capacity across the Middle East is forecast to triple by 2031, as governments pursue energy security, diversify their economies, and take advantage of increasingly competitive solar and wind technology.
Saudi Arabia is expected to record the region’s most dramatic expansion, with renewable capacity forecast to increase fivefold. The UAE is also expected to be a major contributor, signalling a shift in a region whose electricity systems have traditionally depended heavily on oil and natural gas.
The IEA said stronger policy commitments, energy security considerations, and improving technology competitiveness had lifted its forecast for renewable growth in emerging and developing economies by almost 20% compared with its previous report.
Globally, renewable power capacity is projected to expand by more than 4,770 GW between 2026 and 2031, a 57% acceleration compared with the previous six years.
Solar PV is expected to account for about three-quarters of that increase.
Renewables are forecast to provide 43% of global electricity generation by 2031, up from 33% in 2025. Solar PV alone is expected to supply about 16%, overtaking hydropower.
For the UAE, the challenge will be to turn capacity plans into reliable electricity supply while integrating more variable solar generation into the grid.
Investment in storage, transmission, and flexible power systems will be important as the country seeks to reduce fossil fuel use without compromising security of supply.