The investment, announced at the 25th NOG Energy Week Conference and Exhibition on 8 July, marks ExxonMobil’s return to drilling operations in Nigeria after nearly a decade, with its last drilling campaign in the country conducted in 2016. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, chief executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), described the announcement as a significant development for the country’s upstream oil sector, noting that Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria, an ExxonMobil affiliate, had not drilled in Nigeria since that campaign.

The project falls within Oil Mining Lease 138 and involves on-block operations at the Usan field, which Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria operates under a production sharing contract alongside the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, with Chevron, TotalEnergies, and Nexen, a subsidiary of the China National Offshore Oil Corporation, as co-venture partners.

The Usan field was discovered in 2002 and developed in water depths of 2,400 feet using a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel and 42 subsea wells, comprising 23 production wells and 19 water and gas injection wells connected to a two-million-barrel-capacity FPSO. First oil was produced in February 2012, when the field had a gross production capacity of up to 180,000 barrels per day.

The investment comes as Nigeria, one of Africa’s largest crude producers and an OPEC member, seeks to reverse years of declining output through regulatory reform and renewed investment. The African country has faced persistent challenges, including oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment, prompting the government to accelerate project approvals and encourage fresh capital inflows into the sector.

In a separate development, the NUPRC issued petroleum prospecting licenses to successful applicants from the 2022/2023 Mini Bid Round and the 2024 Nigeria Licensing Round. A total of 12 companies received 19 licenses covering deep offshore, shallow water, and continental shelf areas, with Broron Energy, Petroli Energy Marketing and Supply, Sahara Deepwater Resources, and Tulcan Energy among those receiving awards, underscoring the breadth of opportunities on offer in Nigeria’s licensing rounds.

Apart from its big-ticket investment in Nigeria, Exxon, in partnership with QatarEnergy, has entered Cyprus as well through a deal signed with the Mediterranean country’s government. Prospects of two offshore gas fields have been declared marketable, a milestone in efforts by the ‌East Mediterranean island to develop its energy reserves.

The “Declaration of Marketability” signed in Nicosia has advanced a project central to the region’s ambitions to supply more gas to Europe.

ExxonMobil has reported discoveries in two offshore blocks in fields known as Glaucus and ⁠Pegasus. As per the company and the Cypriot officials, the combined discoveries could be between eight and nine trillion cubic feet.

The “Declaration of Marketability,” according to the Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides, “represents a major step towards establishing the Eastern Mediterranean as a credible alternative energy corridor for Europe.”

“Some additional drilling on the two offshore fields would be required before moving into the front-end engineering and ‌design (FEED),” the administration added further.

“A final investment decision is anticipated around 2029 and production in 2033,” remarked ExxonMobil Vice President and head of global expansion John Ardill.

QatarEnergy signed a preliminary deal with ExxonMobil and Egypt’s government in May 2026 to study ⁠the development and commercialization of gas discoveries in Cyprus using Egypt’s existing gas and LNG infrastructure.

“The reserves from Pegasus and Glaucus would probably be ⁠delivered with a pipeline tie-back to Egypt,” Ardill concluded.

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The purchases come amid more oil shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz, following the US-Iran ceasefire earlier in June 2026. However, the weak demand in Asia has freed up more Middle Eastern crude supply for other regions.

“Dangote imported one cargo of Umm Lulu crude and another ‌of either Das ⁠or Murban ⁠crude in June. The refinery receives about five to seven crude cargoes a month from Nigeria’s state-owned NNPC, benefiting from lower shipping costs, but has previously said it requires about 13 to 15 cargoes per month,” reported Reuters.

As per the Kpler data, the Dangote refinery, which has turned into a major exporter of middle distillates ‌to Europe due to fuel shortages linked ⁠to disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, also sourced up to 65,000 bpd of Libyan crude in May.

The two UAE cargoes, confirmed by S&P Global Commodity Insights on June 29, will arrive at Dangote’s Lekki facility in the coming weeks. Since the beginning of its commercial operations in early 2024, the facility has drawn its crude almost exclusively from Nigeria, the United States, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers. In 2025, approximately 70% of its imports originated from Nigeria under the naira-for-crude arrangement the African country’s federal government struck with the Dangote Group. The remaining 30% was split primarily between US grades.

In 2026, the refinery diversified its import options further, receiving cargoes from Angola, Ghana, Libya, and Guyana alongside domestic Nigerian supply. The UAE purchase marks the first time any Middle Eastern crude has been added to that growing roster.

The import by Dangote also serves as a double delight for the UAE’s crude grades, as the development, along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has brought the commodities back into the global supply picture at competitive prices. Benchmark UAE Murban crude was trading at approximately USD 66.40 per barrel on June 26, nearly USD 6 below pre-Iran war levels, making Middle Eastern grades an increasingly attractive option for a merchant refinery trying to widen the range of crude it can profitably process.

CEO David Bird, who joined Dangote in 2025 after two years running Oman’s Duqm refinery, wants to more than triple the number of crude grades the facility can process from approximately the current capacity of 40 to more than 120 in the coming years. The UAE’s key export grades, including Murban, Das Blend, Umm Lulu, and Upper Zakum, are broadly compatible with the refinery’s distillation unit configuration and would add significant flexibility to a facility currently running at full nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

“The naira-for-crude agreement between NNPC and the refinery has guaranteed 13 to 15 cargoes of Nigerian crude monthly, helping to reduce the refinery’s foreign exchange exposure on the bulk of its feedstock. But that arrangement has faced persistent operational headwinds. Inadequate crude availability at export terminals and recurring technical issues at key loading points have compelled the refinery to seek additional crude sources outside Nigeria on a regular basis, a situation that Bird acknowledged had accelerated the timeline for building out the international procurement infrastructure. The UAE cargoes are the most visible expression yet of that imperative,” reported Billionaires Africa.

The Dangote refinery has already confirmed plans to double its processing capacity to approximately 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028, a level that would allow the business to process approximately 80% of Nigeria’s entire daily crude oil production in a single day. However, the drawback with the approach is that, going by things, domestic Nigerian crude supply will become structurally insufficient to feed the expanded facility and international sourcing at scale will become a permanent operational requirement rather than a supplementary buffer.

“The Middle East has historically been one of the primary sources of refined petroleum products imported into West and Central Africa. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India together accounted for the majority of the region’s refined fuel imports before the Dangote Refinery began reshaping those trade flows. The refinery is now not only displacing Middle Eastern refined product imports across African markets but also beginning to buy raw crude from those same Middle Eastern producers to process in Nigeria. The direction of the trade is reversing,” Billionaires Africa concluded.

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The conference, as per the experts, has provided a clear roadmap for insurers seeking growth in a market long constrained by weak penetration, noting that the implementation of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025 has created a regulatory environment that can support rapid expansion.

“The call came as the Commissioner for Insurance, Olusegun Omosehin, declared at the conference that Africa’s low insurance penetration should be viewed as a multi-billion-dollar growth opportunity rather than a market weakness, citing the continent’s existing premium pool of about USD 68 billion,” reported Nigerian daily The Guardian.

At the conference, insurance executives argued that the biggest challenge facing the industry operators was no longer product availability but distribution, warning that conventional agency networks would continue to leave millions of potential customers outside the insurance ecosystem.

According to industry estimates (discussed at the conference), Africa’s digital economy now includes more than 500 million mobile wallet users, offering insurers a ready-made platform to distribute retail products without worrying about the heavy costs associated with physical branch expansion.

The experts also urged Nigerian insurers to accelerate partnerships with telecom companies, fintech firms and digital payment providers to deliver insurance products through mobile applications, unstructured supplementary service data (USSD) channels and embedded financial services.

The Director-General of the Nigerian Insurers Association, Bola Odukale, told The Guardian that the Cairo conference reinforced the need for operators to rethink traditional distribution models and embrace technology-enabled channels that are capable of reaching millions of Nigerians currently facing exclusions, both from the African country’s financial framework and its insurance services.

According to Odukale, the insurance industry can no longer depend solely on conventional agency networks if it hopes to achieve meaningful penetration growth.

“The opportunities are enormous. What the Cairo conference has shown is that insurance penetration can improve significantly when operators leverage existing digital infrastructure and focus on solving customers’ real-life risks through accessible products,” she said.

While stating that innovation must be matched with capacity development and professional competence, President/Chairman of the Council of the Chartered Insurance Institute of Nigeria, Yetunde Ilori, said, “The increasing deployment of policies across digital platforms requires continuous training to ensure ethical standards, customer protection and sustainable growth.”

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As per Dr Tijani, the meeting focused on strengthening collaboration on NUCAP, a major national initiative aimed at providing telecommunications access to more than 20 million Nigerians living in unserved and underserved communities. Through the project, the West African country will deploy 3,700 modern telecommunications towers across its territory, particularly targeting rural and riverine areas lacking reliable network coverage.

Describing NUCAP as a “wholly green network” initiative, Dr Tijani said that the programme has been designed to deliver sustainable and modern digital infrastructure to previously unconnected Nigerian communities.

“Improved connectivity would not only bridge the digital divide but also create opportunities for economic inclusion, education, innovation, and access to digital services for millions of Nigerians,” the minister remarked.

Highlighting the significance of China Industrial Bank’s involvement, Dr Tijani noted that the investment also represents the bank’s first major commitment in Nigeria.

“The partnership demonstrates increasing international confidence in Nigeria’s vision for digital transformation and inclusive economic growth through technology-driven infrastructure development,” he said.

The senior official further expressed optimism about the CIB’s support for the Nigerian government’s immediate target of delivering at least 1,000 telecommunications tower sites before the 2026 end, while stating that achieving this milestone would bring connectivity and new economic opportunities closer to millions of the West African country’s citizens who remain excluded from digital access.

Talking about the NUCAP, it will see the deployment of 3700 telecom towers that, apart from delivering voice and data services, will also provide public WiFi, digital learning tools and associated energy solutions in areas with poor infrastructure. As per the reports, the absence of basic mobile network coverage has limited people’s access to education, healthcare and, most importantly, financial inclusion.

The successful conclusion of NUCAP will usher in steady internet connections, transforming local communities and economies by enabling e-commerce, mobile banking, online education and better delivery of government services.

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In a policy briefing on the recapitalisation exercise, the commission disclosed that equity market capitalisation rose from 99.38 trillion naira at the close of 2025 to 129.21 trillion naira by March 31, 2026. The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) also surged from 155,613 points at the 2025-end to a historic high of 201,287.78 points by the end of Q1 2026, representing a 29.35% gain within three months.

February 2026 alone delivered a market capitalisation gain of 17.6 trillion naira, the highest single-month increase ever recorded in the history of the African country’s stock market.

SEC said the market also demonstrated structural resilience, despite the extraordinary volume of fresh equity supply that was introduced through public offers and rights issues by banks.

“The Nigerian equity market demonstrated reasonable price discovery throughout the recapitalisation period,” it added.

While the NGX Banking Index declined in mid-2024, as investors priced in dilution risks from anticipated large rights issues, the sector later made a strong comeback as capital was successfully raised and market participants reassessed stronger balance sheets, before expanding the lending capacity of recapitalised institutions.

“The market’s ability to manage valuation complexities in real time reflected growing analytical sophistication among institutional investors, stronger broker research, wider analyst coverage, and improved real-time data systems,” the SEC stated.

Beyond the stock market rally, the banking recapitalisation created broader structural benefits across the African country’s capital market ecosystem.

According to the SEC, about 500,000 new investors participated in various bank public offers between 2024 and 2026, with many being first-time equity investors.

“A significant number of these investors were expected to remain active in the secondary market and future public offerings, thereby deepening market liquidity and broadening the investor base. The exercise rebuilt institutional capacity across investment banks, stock broking firms, registrars, custodians and issuing houses, which handled unprecedented transaction volumes during the recapitalisation process,” the commission remarked.

According to the SEC, Nigeria’s capital market mobilised 4.65 trillion naira over the 24-month recapitalisation period, proving the capabilities of Nigeria’s market infrastructure, investor community and regulatory framework, when it comes to supporting large-scale national transformation.

Director-General of SEC, Dr Emomotimi Agama, said the recapitalisation exercise should be seen not as an isolated success, but as the foundation for a stronger financial market capable of financing Nigeria’s long-term development.

“The recapitalisation has demonstrated that the Nigerian capital market is resilient. It is the Commission’s unwavering determination to ensure that resilience becomes transformation. The story of the 4.65 trillion naira raised should be remembered not as a peak achievement, but as the beginning of a more consequential era in which the capital market plays a central role in financing the nation’s future,” he concluded.

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Speaking at the 2026 Monetary Policy Forum in Abuja, Olayemi Cardoso further revealed that the reforms under the policy have given rise to positive economic outcomes. He commented, “Gross external reserves increased from USD 38.34 billion in February 2025 to USD 50.12 billion in February 2026, representing a 30.73% year‑on‑year increase, the highest level recorded in 13 years. Similarly, Net External Reserves have surged from USD 3.99 billion at the end of 2023 to USD 34.80 billion at the end of 2025, representing a 772.2% increase and higher than total gross reserves in 2023.”

“This improvement was reinforced by enhanced reserve‑management practices, integration of London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)‑certified gold into the national reserves, restructuring of the external asset management framework, and the initiation of a second global custodian to improve risk diversification. When our administration assumed office in September 2023, the macroeconomic environment was marked by pronounced distortions and significant imbalances, with the economy facing heightened vulnerability and elevated stability risks,” the senior official added.

Noting that headline inflation rose to 29.9% in January 2024, reflecting sustained food price pressures, exchange‑rate pass‑through, and structural supply constraints, Cardoso continued, “Excessive monetary financing had compromised policy integrity; Ways and Means advances had climbed to 26.95 trillion naira by May 2023, far beyond statutory thresholds, weakening the monetary‑fiscal interface and eroding credibility. The foreign exchange market was severely impaired, with over USD 7.0 billion in verified FX backlogs, constraining private‑sector operations and damaging external confidence.”

“Parallel market premium widened sharply to over 60%, and the exchange-rate architecture became increasingly fragmented. External reserves were under severe pressure, with net foreign reserves dropping to as low as USD 3.99 billion at the end of 2023, while Nigeria’s balance of payments position oscillated between deficits and instability. These conditions collectively undermined the transmission of monetary policy, weakened investor sentiment, and strained the credibility of the Central Bank at home and abroad,” he remarked.

The senior official also added that with a clear understanding of the challenges, the CBN has moved on a proactive basis to implement far‑reaching, bold but necessary reforms aimed at restoring credibility, normalising policy conduct, rebuilding confidence, and stabilising the macroeconomic environment.

“The first critical step was restoring monetary–fiscal discipline. Ways and Means financing was reined-in decisively, declining from 26.95 trillion naira to 3.51 trillion naira in December 2024 and further to 2.84 trillion naira by January 2026, marking one of the sharpest fiscal consolidations in recent history,” Cardoso added, informing the media that his institution’s policy actions restored compliance with the law and strengthened central bank independence. The moves also signalled the bank’s commitment to orthodoxy and transparency to markets, with a clear message that the era of fiscal dominance had ended.

“We complemented these actions with a firm but data-driven tightening cycle. Throughout 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained a restrictive stance to rein in inflation expectations by raising the policy rate cumulatively by 875 basis points from 18.75% in January 2024 to 27.50% in November 2024. While the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was kept at elevated levels for most of the year, improved inflation dynamics enabled the first policy rate cut in five years. A modest easing was carefully calibrated, with the policy rate reduced from 27.5 per cent to 27.0 per cent in September 2025, followed by a further cut to 26.5 per cent in February 2026,” he concluded.

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“The introduction of the H160 into Nigeria represents a meaningful step forward for our offshore operations in West Africa. This aircraft brings a combination of advanced technology, operational flexibility, and improved fuel efficiency that strengthens our ability to deliver safe, reliable, and cost-effective transportation for our customers. Its performance profile, particularly its range, payload capability in a 12-passenger configuration, and ability to operate from smaller helidecks, positions Bristow with a distinct advantage in this market. We believe the H160 will play an important role in supporting the evolving needs of the energy sector across the region,” Stu Stavely, Chief Operating Officer, Offshore Energy Services, Bristow Group, said.

“Milestone is pleased to support Bristow with the lease of five new H160s, making us the first lessor to introduce this aircraft type into Bristow’s fleet. Our continued investment in next-generation medium and super medium helicopters ensures our customers have access to the most efficient and capable aircraft on the market, supporting mission-critical operations around the world. We appreciate the strong collaboration with Bristow and Airbus and look forward to further strengthening our partnership in the years ahead,” remarked Pat Sheedy, Chief Executive Officer of Milestone.

“The arrival of these first two H160s in Nigeria is a proud moment for Airbus Helicopters as we see our latest medium-twin aircraft prepare to take flight for Bristow’s offshore missions. This delivery underscores our commitment to supporting the energy sector with a helicopter that sets new standards in safety, comfort, and competitiveness with its 18% reduction in fuel burn. We look forward to seeing the H160 in operation and continuing our long-standing partnership with both Bristow and Milestone,” noted Bruno Even, CEO of Airbus Helicopters.

With three additional H160s planned for delivery to fulfil the five-aircraft agreement, Bristow is well-positioned to operate one of the most modern and capable fleets in Africa to support mission-critical services for the energy industry. One of the world’s most technologically advanced helicopters, the H160 was designed and built to offer the highest levels of operational safety while providing exceptional comfort for rotorcraft in its class.

The H160 can perform a wide variety of missions such as law enforcement, offshore transportation, search and rescue, private and business aviation, and emergency medical services, and has been put into service in Brazil, Canada, China, France, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, the United States and Europe.

Image Credits: Airbus

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Today, there is a Silicon Savannah in Nairobi and a computer village in Lagos. They are infrastructure that were unthinkable just a decade ago. And as a result, the continent is brimming with chaotic and innovative energy.

The GDP growth of Africa is expected to reach around 4.1% by 2025. It is easily one of the fastest-growing regions on the planet. It might sound astounding, but if you take into consideration digital architecture, which includes 570 million users along with 855 million mobile data subscriptions, and if you also notice that the mobile money sector in the region accounts for an astonishing 74% of all global mobile money transactions, the maths adds up.

Of course, where there is growth, there are parasites. The hackers and cyber criminals are outpacing the defensive capabilities of the continent. These nefarious individuals and organisations are weaponising the same APIs, mobile payment gateways, cloud platforms, and other technological advancements that are facilitating the financial inclusion of the region.

There are several malicious groups to worry about, such as the local Yahoo Boys and international groups with state sponsorship, like the hacking group Anonymous Sudan.

This is what happens when you have high digital adoption and low cybersecurity maturity. There’s a gap that is perfect for criminals who want to siphon the continent’s economic gains. Nobody really knows how much of the economy is at risk, but there are even studies that claim that cybercrime causes Africa almost 10% of its GDP. There are conservative estimates that are also alarming, which tell us the number is in the billions. And more than money, reputation and structure are at risk.

The stakes can’t get any higher. Africa is trying to emulate the European Union (EU) through the African Continental Free Trade Area. This organisation, like the EU, is trying to bind the continent into a single market where people can move and trade freely. But this ambitious goal is under threat by cybercriminals.

The financial institutions in Nigeria lost over ₦52 billion to fraud in 2024 alone. And South Africa was dog-piled by ransomware attacks, which were striking with precision at its critical infrastructure. This is a theoretical and operational threat that affects everything about the economies of these nations. The breadth of the issue is so wide that it can affect the issuance of Kenyan visas and the stability of the Central Bank of Uganda.

The anatomy of digital boom

If you have to understand the magnitude of the cyber threat to Africa, you have to understand Africa’s digital story, which is unique in the history of economics. The West had to go through industrialisation over centuries, having to go through so many different types of technologies and slowly evolve into the economy it is today. For example, there were copper wires and land lines, desktop computing, and then mobile connectivity in Europe.

But Africa was colonial and far behind the times. When globalisation hit and technology was being transferred to every nook and corner of the world, Africans skipped telegrams, landline telephones, and desktop computers and jumped directly to the age of mobile connectivity. It is called the “leapfrog effect” and is most visible in the financial sector, which happens to be the bedrock of Africa’s identity. Look no further, in today’s sub-Saharan Africa, there are about 1.1 billion homes with registered mobile money accounts. That’s almost half the global total. And in 2024 alone, these platforms processed about 81 billion transactions, which can be valued at a staggering $1.1 trillion.

The mobile-centric architecture democratised finance, and millions of unbanked individuals are now in the formal economy, sending money to relatives in rural villages and paying for solar power or accessing microloans by pressing a few buttons.

Small and medium enterprises benefited greatly from this. Currently, they contribute about 50% of total GDP and constitute 95% of all registered businesses. Unfortunately, these SMEs are most vulnerable to these cyber attacks as they don’t have the resources to defend themselves and aren’t informed enough to take precautions.

The integration of technology into the daily life of common Africans essentially means that a cyber attack on Africa doesn’t just affect corporations and can also disrupt the subsistence of its citizens.

The infrastructure of vulnerability

The nations of Africa have prioritised speed over security when building digital infrastructures. And this is what industry experts call a maturity gap, where technology is built too fast to be secured. The continent’s digital growth is mostly driven by artificial intelligence, application programming interfaces (APIs), and cloud adoption. These technologies facilitate the connection of disparate financial services. However, they do come with systemic risks. For example, a third-party payment processor can be compromised, which would cascade into banks, telecom operators, government portals, and so on. It is a domino effect where all this interconnectivity creates a risk to the economy as a whole.

And the physical infrastructure supporting this massive boom is expanding at an astounding pace. There are investments in undersea cables, such as Google’s Equiano and Meta’s 2 Africa, and there is also a proliferation of local data centres, thus reducing latency and, of course, data costs too.

Security engineers believe that the modernisation of infrastructure, including shared digital infrastructure (SDI), where governments and companies pool resources, broadens the attack surface. The larger the system, the easier it is for it to fall.

The economic calculus of cybercrime

Determining the exact cost of cybercrime in Africa is difficult, as we discussed earlier. The UN Economic Commission for Africa has a disturbing statistic, pinning the losses at 10% of GDP. One must note that Africa’s GDP is around $2.8 trillion, which should imply that almost $300 billion is lost annually. Many economists are skeptical about this data, but if it’s true, it would mean that cybercrime is actually taking away more money than what is required to combat malaria and HIV combined.

INTERPOL doesn’t truly agree with the UN estimates and believes the direct losses must be in the range of $4 billion to $10 billion annually. While this isn’t the jaw-dropping 10% of GDP, it is still 0.15% to 2.13% of total GDP. To put things into perspective, Sierra Leone has a GDP of $4 billion, and this figure is an exact equivalent.

No matter the precise data, it’s an undeniably alarming trajectory. In Nigeria alone, financial institutions lost ₦52.26 billion to fraud in 2024. There was around a 7.63% increase in fraud cases. The attacks are becoming more precise, targeting high-value, high-net-worth individuals or organisations.

They are no longer casting a wide net, but spearing specific whales. The cost of data breaches in South Africa reached $2.95 million in 2034 (one of the highest in the world) before slightly coming down to $2.45 million in 2035, due to better detection technologies.

The spectrum of threats

There is a wide array of attacks ranging from crude, volume-based to highly sophisticated and targeted campaigns. The spectrum can range from a lone hacker in a cafe to a state-sponsored operative from a distant capital.

Ransomware was just a nuisance once upon a time, but it’s one of the most dominant threats in the economy right now, with South Africa and Egypt bearing most of the brunt of the assault.

In 2024, South Africa reported approximately 18,000 ransomware detections, closely followed by Egypt with around 12,000. Both Nigeria and Kenya also experienced significant threats, with thousands of incidents occurring.

Most of the targets are strategic and high-value. Hackers usually target critical infrastructure, government databases, or major financial institutions. And they also encrypt data to paralyse operations of an organisation or individual and demand a ransom for not blackmailing victims with threats to leak their private data to the public. Organisations like Kenya’s Urban Roads Authority (KURA) and Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are prime examples of organisations that had to pay due to ransomware attacks.

And then there is business email compromise (BEC) and phishing. Phishing is still the primary vector for initial access. Phishing victims in Africa rose from 26% to 32% in 2024. In BEC attacks, which usually follow phishing, fraudsters compromise legitimate email accounts of executives or finance officers and authorise fraudulent wire transfers. It’s most prevalent in West Africa, where there are criminals who have honed their skills over decades.

Digital sextortion is one of the worst forms of cyberattacks. Criminals often use explicit images generated with AI to blackmail victims. With the rise of AI, criminals no longer need real photos; they can use deepfake technologies to blackmail anyone sensitive about their public image. This can disproportionately affect women and public figures.

And finally, there is DDoS. DDoS, or distributed denial of service attacks, has moved beyond vandalism to become a real tool of geopolitical coercion. The high-profile attack by Anonymous Sudan against Kenya’s digital infrastructure in 2023 and 2024 exemplified this shift. Although they claim those attacks were political and for the benefit of the nation of Sudan, security researchers believe Anonymous Sudan may have ties to Russian cybercrime ecosystems like KillNet. This connection was observed when they targeted Kenya’s eCitizen platform, M-PESA services, and power utilities. The attack was so humiliating for Kenya because they were issuing digital visas, which no longer worked, and they had to roll back to issuing visas on arrival. It caused so much chaos in Nairobi without even firing a shot.

Of course, things are at their worst when there is a spy or a colluder in your organisation. For example, Access Bank in Nigeria lost over 800 million Naira because of an employee who was colluding with cybercriminals. If you have underpaid or disgruntled employees, criminals might recruit them to work as insiders.

The insider threat is very difficult to detect because no amount of sophisticated monitoring of the digital infrastructure is going to prevent internal sabotage. Employees might be tempted to sell their credentials if they are going to be paid much more by a criminal than by their employer, especially in poor regions like Africa.

The future of defence

The future of cybersecurity is defined by the sovereignty of data. We are going to see a lot of data nationalism rise, where nations demand that their data be stored locally. This might complicate the operations of global tech giants, but it will spur the growth of local cloud infrastructure.

Rwanda’s Data Governance Policy is a good example of this. However, we are playing a game of catch-up as quantum computing is moving too fast; any current encryption standard is easily overcome by hackers in a matter of weeks or months. Even if Africans use the current technology available in Europe, by the time they implement it, they will be left behind by all the technological advancements happening in the world and adopted by malicious actors. If they want to be ahead of the game, they have to prepare for post-quantum cryptography.

Experts like Dr. Bright Gameli Mawudor predict that attacks will be fully automated, meaning the hacker will be an AI in the near future rather than a human being. He also warns that automated scripts could theoretically compromise national central banks if there are vulnerabilities, suggesting that the future of war is going to be machine against machine, where humans are either spectators or victims.

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Ghana’s growing reputation as a West African investment powerhouse, combined with its track record of political stability and business-friendly regulations, helps draw in foreign capital. The industries that demand attention include financial services, tourism, infrastructure, mining, oil and gas, agriculture and agro-processing, particularly cocoa, and information and communications technology.

China, the United States, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Ireland are among the larger economies with businesses operating in Ghana. Procter & Gamble, Volkswagen, Toyota, and Sinotruk are among the more well-known brands. International telecom providers include Vodafone, AirtelTigo, Huawei Technologies, and MTN of South Africa.

Incoming mining operators include Newmont Ghana Gold Ltd, Gold Fields Ghana Ltd, and Anglogold Ashanti Ghana Ltd., while foreign companies seeking to increase production are also entering Ghana’s relatively new oil industry. These companies include Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, and Italy’s ENI.

Despite growing interest, Ghana’s annual FDI has fluctuated due to macroeconomic uncertainty, culminating in a debt crisis in 2022.

According to Macrotrends, an investor research platform, FDI inflows into Ghana increased by 35% to $2.5 billion in 2021. However, inflows fell to $1.3 billion in 2023, a 7.6% decrease from 2022.

Stabilisation successful

When Ghana and the International Monetary Fund finalised a loan support agreement in May 2023, it might have marked the start of a new era. The stabilisation was further reinforced by the presidential election in December 2024.

In a December 2024 report, the IMF stated, “The capital and financial account is expected to gradually improve over the coming five years, with FDI projected to increase to 3% of GDP by 2028 following the completion of the debt restructuring and gradual reform implementation.”

Recently, fund representatives visited Accra to evaluate Ghana’s economic performance and structural changes under the stabilisation plan.

In his March 2025 budget speech, Minister of Finance Cassiel Ato Forson said, “The commitment to continue implementing the ongoing IMF-supported programme and reforms to forge macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability will restore investor confidence, resulting in further improvement in FDI flows.”

According to Ghana’s Exemption Act of 2022, manufacturing, minerals and mineral processing, mining by Ghanaian indigenous people, oil and gas (value addition), real estate (property development and road infrastructure), pharmaceuticals, agro-processing, and tourism are among the priority investment sectors that will benefit from investor tax incentives.

Politically speaking, Marcel Okeke, a former Senior Economist at Zenith Bank, Nigeria’s top lender, argues that Ghana’s peaceful election in December means that democracy has come to stay.”

John Dramani Mahama, a former president, was chosen by Ghanaians to succeed President Nana Akufo-Addo. There was no demand for court intervention during the changes in government and political party, which suggests that a time of stability may be on the horizon.

There have been some benefits from the financing arrangement with the IMF. A bigger trade surplus and more IMF borrowing were the main drivers of Ghana’s modest gains in external reserves, which grew to $8.8 billion in 2024 from about $6 billion the year before.

Notwithstanding these encouraging indications, difficulties still exist. Although the increase in reserves is a good thing, Ghana still owes $28.3 billion in external debt, which includes a portion of eurobonds whose payments have had to be postponed. In 2027, more than half of the $8.7 billion in foreign debt service is due.

“We will fix it,” Forson said, adding that “these humps are cancerous and pose a significant risk to the economy.”

With only $8.8 billion in total reserves, Ghana’s central bank might run out of money in roughly three and a half months because it owes the IMF about $2.5 billion, or nearly 30% of its reserves.

Emeka Ucheaga, head of Research and Business Intelligence at Credit Direct, a financial company based in Lagos, said, “The reserves are too low to offer tangible protection to investors in the event of external shocks.”

Ucheaga cautions that despite the economy’s improved GDP growth in the second and third quarters of last year, macroeconomic fundamentals are still precarious. Rising inflation is eroding investor profits and purchasing power. According to official data, the rate barely decreased to 23.1% in February 2025 from 23.8% in December 2024. After a brief upswing toward the close of 2024, the Ghanaian cedi has since reverted, falling 5.3% in the first quarter.

Cautious optimism post-crisis

Foreign investors and analysts have reacted to Ghana’s post-crisis landscape with a mix of caution and guarded optimism. In mid-2023, as Ghana grappled with debt restructuring, Fitch Solutions warned that uncertainty and a sharply devalued cedi would “keep foreign investors cautious,” noting that sentiment remained weak and FDI inflows were unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels immediately.

Memories of the 2022 default still loom large, and investors have been awaiting clear signs of stabilisation.

Emeka Ucheaga, head of research at a Lagos-based finance firm, argues that Ghana must “demonstrate a sustained commitment to economic stability,” from taming inflation to building reserves from non-debt sources, before confidence truly returns.

That said, there are growing rays of optimism. The International Monetary Fund’s support programme, secured in 2023, and the successful presidential election in 2024 have improved the outlook.

“Over the coming five years, the capital and financial account is expected to gradually improve,” the IMF observed in late 2024, projecting FDI to rise to 3% of GDP by 2028 once debt restructuring and reforms are complete.

Ghana’s officials echo this optimism: “Commitment to…reforms to forge macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability will restore investor confidence, resulting in further improvement in FDI flows,” Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson affirmed in the 2025 budget speech.

Some regional analysts are bullish on Ghana’s prospects given its stability. Marcel Okeke, a former chief economist at Zenith Bank, points out that, unlike some neighbours plagued by insecurity, “We do not hear about [terrorism] in Ghana… Investors look for a place to put their money and go to sleep. That is why investors will want to put their money into Ghana.”

In short, while scepticism remains until reforms bear fruit, many see Ghana turning the corner, provided it stays the course on prudent policies.

Stacking up against regional peers

Ghana’s bid to attract FDI cannot be viewed in isolation. It competes with regional peers like Kenya, Cote d’Ivoire, and Nigeria, which each offer a different mix of opportunities and risks.

In 2023, Ghana drew about $1.35 billion in FDI inflows, a respectable sum, but slightly behind Cote d’Ivoire (around $1.75 billion) and Kenya (about $1.5 billion).

Notably, Ghana far outpaced Nigeria, which saw FDI plummet to just $377 million amid its own economic challenges. These numbers tell a story. While Ghana remains one of West Africa’s top FDI destinations, accounting for roughly 20% of the region’s FDI stock, it has lost some momentum to rivals.

Cote d’Ivoire has emerged as a standout, steadily growing its FDI even through global turbulence. The Ivorian economy, buoyed by annual growth above 5%, attracted more investment in 2022 and 2023 than it did pre-pandemic. Abidjan’s government has implemented pro-business reforms, such as digitising administrative procedures and a major development plan. These changes, combined with political stability, make it a favourable destination for foreign investors.

The result is diversified inflows spanning industry (over 50% of FDI), services, and agriculture, with investors from Europe, Asia, and the region. Even neighbouring Burkina Faso was a top source.

Kenya, for its part, leverages its status as East Africa’s commercial hub. Nairobi hosts numerous regional headquarters for multinationals and has nurtured a dynamic tech sector. These factors helped Kenya remain among Africa’s largest FDI recipients.

Even though FDI to Kenya dipped 5.8% in 2023, totalling $1.5 billion, the country’s appeal lies in its relatively diversified economy and investor-friendly climate. Over nearly two decades, Kenya climbed global rankings for ease of doing business thanks to regulatory improvements. These changes have made it attractive for manufacturing and service offshoring projects.

Nigeria presents a more cautionary tale. Africa’s biggest economy has an unquestionable market size and oil wealth, yet chronic issues have driven foreign investors away.

In 2023, Nigeria’s FDI inflow was not only a fraction of Ghana’s, but it fell by 19% to $377 million, an extraordinarily low figure relative to Nigeria’s GDP.

Capital flight from Nigeria stemmed from political uncertainty, high operating costs, and an unfavourable business climate that saw major multinationals in oil and telecoms curtailing or divesting investments. However, late-2023 policy shifts under a new administration, including removing fuel subsidies and liberalising the exchange rate, have started to restore some confidence. This was evidenced by a modest uptick in capital inflows in Q4 2023. If Nigeria follows through on reforms, such as tackling forex shortages and security issues, it could regain ground. For now, Ghana holds an edge in stability and predictability.

The comparison reveals Ghana’s relative strengths and areas for improvement. Unlike Nigeria, Ghana has maintained peace and a smoother regulatory environment, and unlike smaller peers, it boasts a sizeable consumer base and abundant natural resources.

Yet, Kenya and Cote d’Ivoire have been more aggressive in reforms and infrastructure investment, which enhances their FDI appeal. Ghana still ranks behind Kenya on some competitiveness measures and has recently been leapfrogged by the Ivory Coast in annual FDI.

Ghana’s FDI numbers

Digging into the data reveals where Ghana’s FDI is coming from, and where it is not. According to the Ghana Investment Promotion Centre (GIPC), FDI project commitments in 2023 totalled $649.6 million, spread across 122 projects.

The figure based on GIPC-registered projects was barely half of the previous year’s, mirroring the sharp drop in actual inflows recorded in the balance of payments.

The investments Ghana did secure in 2023 were concentrated in a few key sectors. Manufacturing led the pack, accounting for about $280 million, which was the single largest FDI value by sector. Close behind were services, which drew roughly $226 million, reflecting investor interest in Ghana’s financial services, telecom, and hospitality segments.

Retail and trading activities also saw some investment ($75 million), while sectors like agriculture and construction made up smaller portions of the pie. This sectoral breakdown aligns with Ghana’s traditional strengths: processing of resources (cocoa, gold, etc.), consumer goods manufacturing, and a growing services economy. Oil and mining, often major FDI magnets, were not explicitly broken out in the GIPC figures, likely because much of the recent activity there involves reinvestment by established players rather than new inflows.

Another way to analyse the FDI is by source and structure. Ghana has long welcomed investors from around the globe. By 2023, the stock of FDI in the country had swelled to $47.3 billion, with multinationals from South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, France, Mauritius, and China among the top contributors over time.

Recent project data, however, show a shifting mix of countries driving new investments. In 2023, China was the standout, responsible for the largest portion of new FDI, about $212 million across 31 projects. This likely reflects Chinese firms increasing their footprint in Ghana’s resource and industrial sectors.

Surprisingly, Turkey contributed a substantial $173 million through only four projects, suggesting that a few large Turkish ventures, possibly in construction or manufacturing, made a significant impact. Other notable sources included India ($78 million), traditional partners like the United States ($26 million) and the Netherlands ($22 million).

The dominance of China, which provided one-third of 2023’s FDI value, underscores Ghana’s pivot toward Asian capital. Meanwhile, relatively smaller contributions from Western investors indicate that there is room to rebuild confidence among US and European firms in the post-crisis period.

In terms of investment type, Ghana’s FDI inflows are primarily equity-based. This includes mainly greenfield projects and business expansions, rather than debt-financed deals. For instance, in 2022, Ghana recorded 39 new greenfield projects valued at approximately $1.33 billion, which aligns with the total FDI inflow for that year. This indicates that foreign companies are focused on establishing or expanding their businesses locally, rather than acquiring stakes in or lending to local firms.

By contrast, portfolio investment and loans experienced major volatility during the debt saga. The joint venture model is also significant. In 2023, around 32 out of 122 FDI projects were joint ventures between foreign and local partners, with the remainder wholly foreign-owned. These joint ventures not only bring in capital but also involve Ghanaian stakeholders, which can promote local employment and facilitate knowledge transfer.

Overall, the data depict an FDI profile in transition. While overall volumes have declined, the manufacturing and service sectors have remained resilient. Meanwhile, newer investors like China and Turkey play a more prominent role. Encouragingly, early 2024 showed signs of a rebound. Ghana’s central bank reported net FDI of $1.74 billion for the year, up 32.7% from 2023.

In late 2023, the macroeconomic stability improved, and investor funds began returning. However, reaching the pre-crisis high of over $2.5 billion in 2021 will require sustained investor confidence, underpinned by structural reforms and perhaps a few landmark investments.

The government’s targeted sectors for incentives, including manufacturing, mining value-addition, agriculture and agribusiness, infrastructure, and tourism, highlight where it hopes the next wave of FDI will land. The challenge will ensure that future FDI flows align with these priorities and that policy consistency sustains momentum.

A positive view

Ucheaga said, “When combined, these indicators show a country still in the early stages of stabilisation rather than in a phase of renewed investor confidence. This ongoing uncertainty is reflected in the fluctuations in FDI inflows.”

He argues that investor sentiment continues to be influenced by memories of Ghana’s December 2022 debt default, as well as a broader global economic environment marked by rising protectionism and the looming threat of a global trade war, even in the face of improved trade data and IMF backing.

Ucheaga emphasises that Ghana must show a consistent commitment to economic stability to reverse this trend. That involves steadily increasing foreign reserves through reliable, non-debt-driven sources, maintaining a trade surplus, and continually expanding the real economy.

He also stresses that to preserve the value of investments, inflation must be under control and the exchange rate must be stabilised. The government has outlined targets for economic growth, including a non-oil GDP expansion of 4.8%, an overall real GDP growth of at least 4%, and an inflation rate aimed at reaching 11.9% by the end of the year.

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By 2006, bilateral trade reached USD 3 billion, up from USD 384 million in 1998. In the same year, Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Nigeria, securing several oil-drilling licenses and pledging USD 4 billion for oil and infrastructure projects, including a USD 1 billion loan for modernising railways.

These early years exhibited notable imbalances: Chinese exports comprised nearly 80 % of Nigeria’s imports, stifling local industries (textiles, in particular) and resulting in factory closures and mass layoffs.

Still, this relationship laid the groundwork for large-scale infrastructure investments funded through export-import transactions and loans, often carried out under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) umbrella.

Scaling Up With Strategic Focus

There are three major developments in recent times. They include the Levi Corridor Road, Kano Kaduna railway and the Lagos-Kano Standard-Gauge Railway.

In May 2025, Nigeria’s federal executive council approved a USD 652 million loan from China’s Exim Bank for a critical road linking Lekki Deep Sea Port with the Dangote Refinery and southern states. This corridor is meant to streamline logistics, boost trade flows, and connect major economic hubs.

In January 2025, China Development Bank released a USD 254.76 million instalment to support the 203 km Kano–Kaduna rail project, which is part of the broader Lagos–Kano railway and integral to boosting passenger travel and security in Nigeria’s north.

Since the Abuja–Kaduna segment began in 2016, China has steadily funded and constructed additional segments through CCECC, reviving a rail network that was nearly defunct by the 2000s. Efforts continue on Lagos–Ibadan, Kaduna–Kano, and coastal rail segments valued collectively at billions of dollars.

There are also energy and industrial infrastructure developments. In late 2024, Nigeria inked a USD 1.2 billion deal with China’s CNCEC to refurbish a gas-processing plant critical to its aluminium sector, demonstrating deeper industrial collaboration.

Recently, some 36 Nigerian governors signed an MoU with Chinese partners to address the African country’s energy crisis through renewables. Concurrently, Nigeria also explored nuclear cooperation with China in small modular reactors.

China is also trying to build a comprehensive strategic partnership in Africa. In January 2025, Nigerian Foreign Minister Tuggar hosted China’s Wang Yi, elevating bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic level. They committed to collaboration on clean energy, defence, infrastructure, a possible currency swap expansion, and support for Nigeria’s “Panda bonds” to raise infrastructure capital. In June 2025, China announced it would eliminate tariffs on exports from its 53 diplomatic partners in Africa, including middle-income nations like Nigeria. This aims to balance trade (where China maintains a USD 62 billion surplus) by easing access for African-manufactured goods.

Sector-Wide Analysis

Robust funding for roads and rail (such as the Lekki corridor and Kano–Kaduna line) is transforming Nigeria’s logistics backbone. These projects reduce transportation costs, enhance distribution networks, and increase competitiveness for Nigerian goods; they also create immediate construction jobs and stimulate regional economic activity.

Energy infrastructure enhancements, in fossil fuels and renewables, directly influence Nigeria’s energy security and industrial productivity. The gas plant rehabilitation supports downstream manufacturing (notably aluminium), while renewable energy projects aim to diversify energy sources beyond traditional fossil fuels and enhance rural electrification.

Duty-free access to the Chinese market marks a significant milestone. Countries like Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, and Morocco (boasting burgeoning manufacturing sectors) stand to gain from tariff elimination. Successful execution could stem the flow of value-added goods to China, rebalance trade, and nurture local manufacturing.

The currency-swap agreement with China and Panda bond mechanisms diversify Nigeria’s capital sources and reduce dependency on Western debt. They also provide buffers against naira volatility and dampen exchange rate pressures, which is critical given Nigeria’s high inflation and currency struggles.

Strategic Considerations And Potential Risks

Nigeria’s debt to China has surpassed USD 5 billion, making China its largest bilateral creditor. While concessional loans fuel growth, they also increase debt-service obligations and potential disputes over repayment terms, especially if projects underperform.

Despite new initiatives, the historical dominance of Chinese imports poses a challenge. Domestic industries (particularly textiles and light manufacturing) have been undone by an influx of cheap imports. Tariff removal is a necessary but not sufficient step; domestic industrial policies must evolve to build real capacities.

Chinese investment’s historically top-down nature risks sidelining community voices, transparency, and labour standards. Future success depends on embedding oversight, environmental diligence, and fair labour practices.

Emerging as West Africa’s logistics nucleus, Nigeria (with deeper Chinese engineering and funding) can serve as a gateway for trade to neighbours. Its ports, railways, and roads could benefit broader regional integration.

Nigeria’s strategy exemplifies a recalibration of relations with China, aligning with African calls for “greater agency” in external partnerships. By demanding better terms, trade access, and project alignment with domestic goals, Nigeria sets a template for other nations.

If the elimination of Chinese tariffs holds, Nigeria’s manufacturing ambitions (especially in agriculture, minerals processing, and light goods) may gain footholds. Complementary policies like subsidies, export incentives, and standards enforcement will be essential for capitalising on new market access.

China remains Africa’s top bilateral trade partner, with USD 282 billion in trade in 2023. Despite complaints over debt traps and slowing GDP in China, Nigerian and African leaders view China as a stable source of development finance. The ongoing partnership challenges Western dominance and offers African states alternative development pathways.

Success means transforming infrastructure into thriving manufacturing sectors, leveraging trade access, and using new financial tools to drive inclusive growth. Failure risks deepening dependency, worsening debt burdens, and allowing policy missteps to marginalise local industries.

Africa and the world are watching. If Nigeria leverages these tools to deliver jobs, reduce poverty, and fuel regional value chains, it could spark a model for Pan-African growth. But it will take strategic governance, local capacity-building, and bold policy reform to turn billions in infrastructure into sustainable, equitable development.

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