The 2024 global oil demand growth forecast was updated by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), falling from 11.8 million barrels per day to 11.6 million barrels per day.
In 2024, the world’s total oil demand is predicted to reach 105 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 103 million barrels per day in the entire year.
The global demand growth forecast for 2025 was also lowered by OPEC to 11.4 million barrels per day. The estimated global oil demand for 2025 is 105 points per day.
“Growth is expected to be bolstered by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries,” OPEC said in its monthly report, as reported by Zawya.
Earlier this month, in response to declining prices, OPEC+ postponed its plan to begin increasing output until April 2025. OPEC had maintained its 2024 outlook, which it had adopted in July 2023, until August.
While the forecasts for next year are related to the possible impact that will arise from US tariffs, OPEC claims that the downgrade for this year is due to more pessimistic data that was received in the third quarter.
The largest of the five cuts OPEC has made in its monthly reports since August is the 210,000 bpd cut in the 2024 figure. OPEC predicted a 2 to 25 million barrel per day increase in global demand in July.
“The bulk of this revision is made in the third quarter, taking into account recently received bearish data for the third quarter,” OPEC said in the report.
According to OPEC, China, India, other Asian nations, the Middle East, and Africa were all involved in the most recent downgrade. From 760,000 bpd in July, OPEC now projects a 430,000 bpd increase in Chinese oil demand in 2024.
After decades as the primary force behind rising oil consumption, China’s imports of crude oil are expected to reach a peak as early as 2025 as the world’s largest consumer of crude oil starts to see a decline in demand for transportation fuel.