Norway’s USD 2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, posted a record profit of 1.75 trillion Norwegian crowns (USD 184.3 billion) for the first half of the year, lifted by technology stocks.
Investing in the Norwegian state’s revenues from oil and gas production, the fund currently owns on average 1.5% of all listed companies globally, making it the world’s largest single investor.
“The result is driven by good returns in the equity market, particularly from Asian technology stocks,” CEO Nicolai Tangen said in a statement accompanying the half-year results.
The fund, while making public the updated list of its holdings, also announced for the first time of holding a 0.05% stake in Elon Musk-led SpaceX worth USD 1.22 billion.
However, the entity has held a 1.28% stake worth USD 62 billion in Nvidia, a 1.24% stake worth USD 52 billion in Apple, a 1.17% stake worth USD 50 billion in Alphabet, a 1.27% stake worth USD 35 billion in Microsoft and a 1.7% stake worth USD 34 billion in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC).
Overall, the fund has invested in around 7,100 companies globally, apart from pumping money into stocks, property, and renewable projects.
However, Tangen still sounded cautious, as he said that the wealth fund could still suffer devastating losses and, in an extreme market collapse, potentially disappear altogether if headwinds like geopolitical tensions, trade barriers, and inflated artificial intelligence (AI) valuations continue.
Tangen, chief executive of Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which manages the fund, said the extraordinary growth of Norway’s oil fund over the past three decades should not be expected to continue at the same pace.
“Can the oil fund disappear? The answer is yes,” Tangen said in a speech at a political conference in Arendal, southern Norway. He added that, given the current global environment, such an outcome was “not completely improbable.”
The fund was established in 1996 to invest Norway’s oil and gas revenues overseas for the benefit of future generations. Its value has grown from less than two billion Norwegian kroner at inception to more than 22 trillion kroner, or about USD 2 trillion, today.
It invests globally across equities, bonds, property, and renewable infrastructure. The Norwegian government can withdraw up to 3% of the fund’s value annually to help finance public spending, a limit intended to preserve the underlying capital over the long term.
Tangen said the period during which the fund accumulated most of its wealth had been unusual, marked by relatively low inflation, taxes, and interest rates. He cautioned that such conditions could not be assumed to persist.
Among the risks he highlighted were nuclear war, biological terrorism, and a prolonged economic depression triggered by the collapse of an AI investment bubble and an escalating trade conflict between the United States and China.
A severe combination of an AI-led market correction, tariffs, and trade restrictions could produce conditions resembling the Great Depression of the 1920s and 1930s, Tangen said. Such an environment could wipe out at least 80% of stock market investment values in an extreme scenario.
NBIM’s own risk assessments have also highlighted substantial downside risks. A sharp reversal in AI-related valuations could cause a major decline in the fund, while severe geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions could inflict similarly heavy losses.
The fund has already experienced periods of sharp volatility. It recorded a 1.9% decline in the first quarter of 2026, losing about 636 billion kroner, or roughly USD 68 billion, as technology stocks fell and geopolitical tensions weighed on markets.
Despite his warnings, Tangen said he was not predicting an imminent collapse. He noted that markets continued to rally despite significant negative developments and that companies had become more resilient by strengthening supply chains and contingency systems.
His message was instead one of caution: the extraordinary scale of Norway’s wealth fund makes managing long-term risk essential, particularly as global markets become increasingly concentrated in technology stocks and exposed to geopolitical shocks.