Amid the ongoing Iran conflict, new US dollar bond and sukuk issuances from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issuers have fallen significantly, noted Fitch Ratings in its latest report. While deals are reportedly being put on hold due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the credit rating giant sees the trend affecting emerging markets’ (EM) debt issuance flows, as the Gulf region alone has accounted for about 40% of all EM dollar issuance so far in 2026 (excluding China).
“Historically, regional DCM issuances have typically rebounded swiftly once tensions eased following previous geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. However, the ultimate effect will depend on the scope and duration of the Iran war. While some yield widening is visible in GCC bonds and sukuk since the war began, there have not been market-wide selloffs,” the agency stated.
Before the conflict’s beginning, issuance activities in the Middle East were displaying strong investor appetite. While about 84% of Fitch-rated sukuk in the GCC countries were rated investment grade, 63.2% was in the ‘A’ category, while 90% of issuers were on Stable Outlooks. Most importantly, there were no defaults by the end of 2025.
“GCC issuances were strong at the start of 2026, with many entities aiming to benefit from favourable conditions ahead of the typical Ramadan slowdown. GCC debt capital market (DCM) outstanding reached USD1.2 trillion as of March 9, 2026, up 14% year on year, with 63% of issuance denominated in US dollars. Sukuk issuance rose to a record 41% share of GCC DCM volumes, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE making up the majority of GCC DCM outstanding, followed by Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. Sukuk in EMs rose to 16% of all dollar DCM issuance in 2025 (excluding China; 2024: 12%). Local-currency GCC sukuk and bonds continue to be issued, mainly by sovereigns,” Fitch remarked.
While funding needs and diversification priorities remain key focus areas for Gulf countries, governments and issuers are now seeking broader liquidity channels.
Fitch sees issuers planning their funding activities well in advance, particularly for large maturities, which will help limit immediate refinancing pressure.
“Despite heightened geopolitical challenges in recent years, GCC issuer activity has rebounded quickly once tensions eased, with market access broadly maintained for many issuers. However, the duration and scale of the conflict in the Middle East have already surpassed the 2025 Twelve-Day War, testing new levels of market uncertainty,” the agency noted.
MENA (Middle East and North Africa) sukuk continues to trade tighter than bonds originating in the region, reflecting sustained and broader demand, including from Islamic banks, with yield widening more pronounced among non-investment grade issuers. The yield-to-maturity (YTM) on the S&P Global High Yield Sukuk Index rose to 6.61% on 10th March 2026, up from 5.82% on 27th February (a 79bp increase).
“Similar periods of yield widening have occurred, particularly in times of heightened geopolitical or Sharia-related uncertainty. However, the current YTM movement remains below the peak levels recorded in earlier episodes,” Fitch concluded.