The ongoing Iran war did little to impact Africa’s air traffic boom, as new analysis released by the African Travel & Tourism Association (ATTA) shows a growing passenger inflow for the May and June 2026 period.
The Middle East disruptions, along with the growing pressure on the aviation industry due to sky-high jet fuel prices, couldn’t deter Africa’s record year-on-year growth. In May and June, North Africa recorded 7.9% growth in air capacity, while Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 4.6%, a significant hike compared with the same period in 2024.
The Atta analysis, prepared with Data Appeal and Mabrian, also saw airlines, on a global scale, reducing seat capacity by 2.1% as carriers responded to headwinds like airspace disruption, operational uncertainty, rising fuel prices and increasing insurance costs. In terms of decline in capacity, Western Asia stood out with a massive 10.1%, followed by Southeast Asia at 7.2%. Sub-Saharan Africa recorded a smaller 2.9% reduction, while North Africa saw a 2.1% adjustment.
“Global seat capacity overall rose by 2.3%, while Western Asia remained the only major region still in contraction year-on-year at 4.9%. The conflict has created immediate operational challenges for aviation globally. Airlines are dealing with disrupted corridors, higher fuel prices and longer routing times. But Africa’s skies have remained open and operating smoothly, with air capacity up approximately 6% in the average year-on-year. While there have been some short-term schedule adjustments, the continent continues to outperform many regions globally, and the figures underline Africa’s growing strategic importance. Members are telling us customers are either seeking reassurance but still travelling or postponing trips rather than cancelling,” said Virginia Messina, group CEO of Atta.
According to the Atta report, as 70 non-African countries are expected to operate direct flights to Africa during 2026, more than 89 million inbound seats will likely be scheduled to the continent, with total inbound capacity forecast to grow by 4.4% year-on-year.
“Europe remains Africa’s largest external aviation market with more than 50.7 million inbound seats scheduled for 2026, reflecting a growth of 5.6%. The strongest-growing origin markets to Africa include Russia (23.1%), Portugal (13.4%), Italy (11%), China (11%), India (9.3%), the United Kingdom (8.6%) and Türkiye (8.6%),” the study stated.
“Intra-African connectivity is forecast to exceed 112 million seats in 2026, up 6.6% year-on-year. South Africa remains the continent’s largest intra-African aviation market with 24.6 million seats. Nigeria, Algeria, Mauritius and Madagascar were among the fastest-growing aviation markets in Africa,” it noted.
Carlos Cendra, chief marketing officer at Data Appeal, remarked, “Africa has a clear medium- to long-term opportunity to leverage growth in both international and regional connectivity to accelerate its tourism sector. In a global market where demand is highly fluid and shifts rapidly in response to the geopolitical environment, the continent now holds a competitive advantage to emerge as a compelling alternative for travellers seeking sustainable and authentic new experiences.”