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Business Leader of the Week: Peter Carlsson’s stewardship faces stern test as troubles brew for Northvolt

IFM_Peter Carlsson
To pursue his career as an advisor, angel investor, and entrepreneur, Peter Carlsson resigned from his roles as CPO and Head of Supply Chain at Tesla Motors at the end of 2015

Peter Carlsson, CEO and co-founder of Northvolt, a leading battery manufacturer for the European electric vehicle market revealed recently that his venture would be laying off staff, closing a location, and holding talks with investors and partners to ensure the continued existence of a Polish facility.

One of the most valuable privately-held tech companies in Europe, Northvolt is based in Stockholm, Sweden, and produces lithium-ion batteries for the electric vehicle market. Several significant European automakers, such as Volkswagen and Volvo, are in partnership with it.

Northvolt has been under a lot of strain lately, not the least of which is the difficulties with demand that the larger electric vehicle market is now experiencing.

The European Alternative Fuels Observatory released data in July 2024 showing that in May, the number of electric vehicle registrations fell by 3% in comparison to the same period last year in Europe. In contrast, plug-in hybrid vehicle registrations fell 10% from the previous year to 226,000.

There has also been pressure on Northvolt to meet ambitious production targets.

The company suffered a huge blow in June when BMW, a long-time collaborator, called off a 2 billion euro contract for the supply of electric vehicle batteries beginning in 2024.

At the time, BMW stated that Northvolt’s late delivery was the reason the deal had been cancelled.

Problems Galore

Northvolt, currently, is also consolidating several of its key battery-making operations across Europe. In the northern Swedish city of Skelleftea, the cathode active material production facility, Northvolt Ett Upstream 1, would be placed “into care and maintenance until further notice” to streamline operating costs and optimise the sequencing of a ramp-up in production.

The company’s “Northvolt Fem” programme in the town of Kvarnsveden in Borlange, Sweden will be terminated. The company had already agreed a sale of the site, which it acquired in 2022, to an unnamed buyer. In the Polish city of Gdansk, the battery maker is all set to enter into discussions with potential partners and investors about Northvolt Systems, suggesting either a partial or full sale of the division.

Northvolt Systems, which includes the battery systems production site Northvolt Dwa, is fully owned by the firm. In the United States, Northvolt has communicated its intention to integrate its California-based subsidiary Cuberg and lithium metal technology into its “Northvolt Labs” unit in Sweden.

Northvolt, which was last valued privately by investors at USD 12 billion, is backed by several notable blue-chip investors like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Volkswagen, Baillie Gifford (an early Tesla investor), and Singaporean sovereign wealth fund GIC.

Till recently, the company was viewed as a key IPO candidate in Europe’s technology ecosystem. In 2023, there were reports about the firm preparing for a stock market listing that could value the company at north of USD 20 billion.

In Canada, the company is moving ahead with plans to open a 7 billion Canadian dollar battery plant at a slower pace. Construction work at the Montreal plant site and related hiring will continue and further details will be provided in the coming days, Paolo Cerutti, CEO of Northvolt North America told Reuters. Northvolt previously said the plant would begin operations in 2026.

Northvolt’s plan to build one of Europe’s largest battery-grade lithium refineries in Portugal by the 2025-end is also facing delays due to the project’s complexity and uncertainty about grant funding.

The 50-50 joint venture Aurora, set up in 2021, had previously expected the refinery to start commercial operations in early 2026. The refinery, with estimated investments of over 1 billion euros (USD 1.10 billion), aims to have an initial annual production capacity of up to 35,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide, a key material for lithium-ion batteries.

The Aurora consortium still has to secure access to national or European grant funds “that are not yet guaranteed,” as well as carry out the necessary studies for the final investment decision.

“A source familiar with the matter said that although the consortium is expected to receive financing of up to 825 million euros from the European Investment Bank (EIB), that would be a loan rather than European Union (EU) grants required for the project to be competitive versus rivals in Europe, the United States or China,” Reuters reported further.

The Sweden government, on the other hand, will not take a stake in Northvolt and the company’s future must be determined by its private owners, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has stated.

Stern Test For CEO Peter Carlsson

Peter Carlsson started Northvolt. To pursue his career as an advisor, angel investor, and entrepreneur, he resigned from his roles as CPO and Head of Supply Chain at Tesla Motors at the end of 2015.

To construct the biggest lithium-ion battery factory in Europe, Peter Carlsson founded Northvolt in 2016. His focus areas are automotive, cleantech, and high-tech.

Right now, a steep challenge is at his hands. He heads a company which is often considered among one of Europe’s trailblazing green tech ventures, apart from being one of the first start-ups to receive support from giants like Goldman Sachs and BlackRock in the up-and-coming field. Despite holding so much of promises, troubles have surrounded Northvolt now.

As it lost the lucrative USD 2 billion contract with BMW, Samsung emerged as the lucky winner, underscoring the looming threat of Asian competition for the likes of Northvolt.

Northvolt works with some of the biggest automakers, from Volvo to Volkswagen. It has been a flag-bearer in Europe’s pioneering contributions to electric vehicles as the first homegrown company in the battery-making sector otherwise dominated by China and South Korea. The company expanded operations globally in a relatively short period, forging partnerships with big and small vehicle companies.

However, the venture hasn’t been able to save itself from the “EV Winter.” Northvolt’s key factory, located in Skelleftea, Sweden, has fallen behind in its production plans; it is expected to reach full capacity by 2026, which, if achieved, could produce 16 gigawatt-hours—enough to power 272,000 cars.

The EV industry has generally seen a slump in demand owing to higher interest rates, which has also impacted the demand for batteries. This has caused Northvolt’s financial woes to snowball. Northvolt reported a loss of USD 1.2 billion in 2023, up nearly fourfold from a USD 285 million loss in 2022. The venture now looks for a 2025 timeline for its IPO.

Talking about Northvolt’s European rivals, Automotive Cells Company, a battery maker backed by Stellantis, has halted the construction of factories in Germany and Italy. Volkswagen has slowed down its efforts to grow new battery-factory capacities as well.

Bigger Things At Stake

Northvolt’s recent crisis has fuelled fear among analysts that Europe’s best shot at a home-grown electric vehicle battery champion may stall. The company stopping the production of cathode active material (CAM), a crucial battery component, along with developments like scrapping plans for a Swedish facility and seeking investors for the Poland plant can be referred to as “too many shocks at once” for the continent’s EV aspirations.

Northvolt will be now focussing on its core business of making battery cells, rather than committing to its original mission to be an all-in-one shop offering everything from material production and battery making to end-of-life recycling.

The news comes at a time when former European Central Bank head Mario Draghi is warning of green tech competition from China.

Northvolt has had problems in manufacturing high-quality batteries in high volumes to meet its ambitious targets while fighting Chinese rivals such as CATL and BYD, analysts told Reuters. Northvolt will now need to buy its cathode active materials from Chinese or South Korean suppliers, reports suggested.

“The travails of Northvolt, which is still loss-making despite securing orders worth over USD 50 billion from customers including top investor Volkswagen, underscore Europe’s struggle to reduce Western carmakers’ reliance on China, which controls 85% of global battery cells production, International Energy Agency data show,” reported Reuters.

Struggles to produce and deliver batteries reportedly triggered the cancellation of the BMW order. Northvolt was allegedly two years behind on the batteries for that deal, meaning they would be obsolete by the time they would be delivered, an industry source told Reuters.

Volkswagen’s Swedish truckmaking unit Scania in May 2024 told Swedish Svenska Dagbladet that Northvolt’s delivery problems had prevented it from shipping thousands of electric trucks in 2023, underscoring a widespread issue. Contacted by Reuters, Scania declined to comment on its order situation.

Northvolt’s flagship factory in Sweden is far from reaching full capacity. The venture is aiming to reach an initial production of 16 gigawatts per hour (GWh) per year by 2026, a three-year delay from the original target, according to the reports. That further raises questions on when the plant may be able to run at its full capacity of 60 GWh per year, enough to produce batteries for one million cars annually.

And it puts in doubt the future of three gigafactories planned in Germany, Canada, and the Swedish city of Gothenburg, industry analysts said. Add the potential lithium refinery project in Portugal to the list too.

Despite its struggles, Northvolt is still far ahead of such rivals as Norway’s Morrow and Freyr, and Stellantis and Mercedes’ joint venture Automotive Cells Company (ACC). However, customers have been nervous about the whole situation and rightly so.

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