BlackRock expects as much as USD 100 billion of capital that might otherwise have flowed out of the Gulf to remain in the GCC, as infrastructure spending, privatisation and the growing role of sovereign wealth funds reshape the region’s investment landscape.
The world’s largest asset manager said the shift was creating opportunities across infrastructure and private markets, as Gulf states increasingly move from being primarily exporters of capital to becoming destinations for international investment.
“The GCC is equipped with a reasonably solid balance sheet position, but at the margin, our analysis suggests that we are going to see something like USD 100 billion in capital that may have flowed out is going to stay here,” Ben Powell, chief investment strategist for the Middle East and Asia-Pacific at the BlackRock Investment Institute, told Zawya.
BlackRock manages more than USD 175 billion in the Middle East, according to the asset manager, giving it a substantial footprint in a region where governments are deploying sovereign capital to accelerate economic diversification.
The potential capital shift comes as GCC governments expand spending on infrastructure, industry and digital assets while seeking to monetise or privatise state-owned businesses.
BlackRock estimates that GCC countries will invest about USD 2.1 trillion through 2030, with more than 80% of that spending outside upstream oil and gas. Its latest regional analysis identifies energy and industry, strategic trade infrastructure, digital infrastructure, urban development, and human and environmental resilience as major areas of investment.
The infrastructure opportunity extends well beyond conventional transport projects. BlackRock’s estimate includes ports, logistics networks, pipelines, power and water infrastructure, data centres and other assets designed to improve resilience in the face of disruptions to trade and energy flows.
Digital infrastructure alone accounts for an estimated USD 323 billion of the GCC’s strategic investment cycle through 2030, while energy, resources and industry represent about USD 735 billion. Strategic redundancy – including alternative trade routes, ports, power and water projects – accounts for another USD 660 billion.
The changing role of Gulf sovereign wealth funds is also central to the trend.
Ayman Daif, managing director and head of Aladdin business development for the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa and India at BlackRock, said sovereign investors were increasingly becoming “market architects”. Rather than simply allocating capital, they are working with regulators, international companies and asset managers, while anchoring funds and partnerships designed to develop local economies.
That evolution is already visible in infrastructure. In May, BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) joined Singapore’s Temasek, Abu Dhabi wealth fund L’IMAD and ADNOC in a partnership targeting up to USD 30 billion of investments across the Gulf and Central Asia. The partnership covers energy, transport, logistics, digital infrastructure, water and waste management.
More recently, GIP and Qatar’s Lesha Bank signed a memorandum of understanding under which Lesha intends to invest more than USD 1 billion alongside GIP, with the partners targeting infrastructure and real-asset opportunities in the GCC and international markets.
The shift is also changing the composition of private-market activity. BlackRock said Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds allocate about 43% of their exposure to private capital, compared with 35% among peers elsewhere. The proportion of Middle Eastern limited partners that are positive on or considering private-equity mandates has risen from 70% in 2019 to 83% in 2026.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are driving much of this activity. BlackRock said fundraising in the region has shifted significantly towards private equity, with private-equity fundraising rising from USD 100 million in 2015 to USD 4.5 billion so far in 2026. Real estate fundraising, by contrast, fell from USD 4.2 billion in 2021 to USD 100 million last year.
The changing capital flows also coincide with efforts by Gulf governments to open more state-owned assets to private investors. Energy, utilities and water are among the sectors where privatisation and asset monetisation are creating opportunities for both mid-market investors and large infrastructure funds.
Powell said the trend was not driven by an urgent need to find alternatives to US assets, noting that US Treasuries would remain important in global portfolios. Instead, investors are gradually diversifying into private credit and emerging-market bonds, while Gulf allocators increasingly deploy capital domestically.
For global asset managers, the development offers a growing pipeline of investable Gulf assets. For the GCC, it represents a further evolution of the region’s role in global capital markets – from a major source of sovereign investment abroad to a market capable of retaining more capital and attracting international investors into its own transformation.