The assessment followed an IMF mission to Damascus in July, led by mission chief Ron van Rooden, which reviewed the country’s economic progress and agreed on an extensive programme of technical assistance covering public finances, banking reform and monetary policy.
“Syria’s economic recovery is accelerating,” Van Rooden said, citing stronger consumer and investor sentiment following the political transition in 2024, the return of about 1.5 million refugees and the country’s gradual reintegration into regional and global markets.
The IMF expects Syria’s economy to record double-digit growth in 2026, driven by a recovery in agriculture after improved rainfall, rising hydrocarbon production, increased electricity supply and expanding trade and services. Growing numbers of visitors and returning refugees are also expected to support economic activity.
The optimistic outlook comes after more than a decade of conflict devastated Syria’s economy. According to World Bank estimates, reconstruction needs total about USD 216 billion, including USD 108 billion in direct damage to infrastructure and buildings. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by almost 53% between 2010 and 2022.
International interest in Syria has also increased since the easing of US sanctions and the country’s re-entry into regional economic networks. Gulf investors, including port operator DP World, have announced major projects, while Saudi Arabia has signed agreements covering energy and infrastructure.
Damascus is also seeking to position itself as an alternative trade route to the Strait of Hormuz, with Iraq and Syria agreeing to revive the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline, which is expected to transport up to two million barrels of crude oil per day.
Despite the improving outlook, the IMF warned that growth remains uneven and poverty is still widespread. Inflation, which had slowed to low double digits this year, has accelerated due to higher food and fuel import costs, rising utility prices and stronger domestic demand.
The fund identified banking reform as one of the country’s most urgent priorities, describing Syria’s financial system as highly dysfunctional. It called for new central bank and banking laws, stronger supervision, bank recapitalisation and tighter anti-money laundering controls.
The IMF added that Syria would continue to depend on substantial international financial support to rebuild infrastructure, create jobs and facilitate the long-term return of refugees and displaced communities.