In September, Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, surged to over 81% of pre-war levels, with Saudi Arabia leading this recovery despite attacks on the Kingdom’s oil infrastructure and regional shipping.
Iranian exports, on the other hand, fell to zero due to a US blockade.
As per the Kpler data, the blockade has all but choked off Iranian exports, while other Gulf producers have adapted to attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping by relying on so-called dark transits, switching off tankers’ tracking systems to evade detection, to protect the oil flows that underpin their economies.
“Flows of crude, condensate, and refined fuels, including LPG, averaged 19.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq, and the UAE, compared with an average of about 23.6 million bpd in the year that preceded the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28,” said data from energy trading firm Vortexa.
As per Kpler, total September oil exports stood at 18.6 million bpd.
While Vortexa saw crude and condensate flows recovering to 91% of their pre-war levels of 16.3 million bpd, exports of refined fuels, including LPG, remained at 60% of their pre-war levels of 7.3 million bpd.
“The decline in fuel exports has exacerbated global shortages of diesel and jet fuel, contributing to record or near-record prices in several markets. The Middle East is a key supplier of such fuels, making regional disruptions particularly significant for global consumers,” Vortexa noted.
“Daily flows are considerably more volatile than before the war, so the key question is whether recent levels can be sustained,” Vortexa analyst Claire Jungman said.
Saudi Arabia drove a sharp recovery in overall Gulf crude and condensate exports last month, with shipments rising by about 4.2 million bpd from August to 6.6 million bpd.
However, Iran-backed drone attacks forced the Kingdom to shut its East-West Pipeline for a brief period, temporarily halting crude loadings at the kingdom’s Yanbu oil port on the Red Sea.
The Kingdom’s rebound has more than offset declines seen among the other Gulf players, accounting for all of the region’s net export growth and more. Exports from the UAE and Iraq increased as well.
The combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran rose to about 14.7 million bpd in September from 10.8 million bpd in August.
On the other hand, Iranian exports fell to zero, while exports from Kuwait and Qatar declined.
Still, the industry has remained cautious.
Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser, for example, has warned that the global oil market could take up to two years to rebuild inventories depleted by the disruption to crude and refined fuel supplies, even after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.
Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Monday, Nasser said the conflict had removed nearly three billion barrels of gross oil supply from the market, while well over one billion barrels had been drawn from global stocks to cushion the shock. The result, he said, is a supply system with a dangerously thin resilience buffer.
“Until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify,” Nasser said.
“Even then, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years,” he stated further.
The warning comes as governments seek to ease the disruption through emergency stock releases. The Group of Seven (G7) has agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, while oil exporters in the Gulf have increased shipments where possible.
Nasser said the world entered the crisis with almost 10 billion barrels of oil stocks. Nearly three billion barrels of supply have since been lost, equivalent to roughly half the crude and refined products that would normally have moved through the Strait of Hormuz during the period. More than 1 billion barrels have been released from stocks, leaving less than 6 billion barrels in commercial inventories.
Much of what remains cannot be readily accessed. Nasser said up to 90% of the remaining inventory is either in pipelines or needed to maintain minimum operating volumes in storage tanks. That means headline inventory figures overstate the amount of oil that can actually be brought to market quickly.
The squeeze is also complicating refinery and product markets. A shortage of diesel and other refined fuels can persist even when crude availability improves because refineries need time, feedstock, and transport to rebuild product inventories.
That creates a risk of a prolonged divergence between crude and fuel prices, with consumers facing higher costs even as markets stabilise. For import-dependent economies, the problem is acute because freight, insurance, and currency costs can amplify the impact of expensive energy.
The International Monetary Fund has modelled a severe scenario in which global economic growth falls to 2% next year while inflation rises above 6%, Nasser said. Emergency reserves can provide temporary relief but cannot resolve a structural imbalance between supply, demand, and inventories.
Rebuilding stocks could itself create a new source of demand. Nasser said restoring global inventories while continuing to meet consumption would require an additional 2 million barrels a day of oil demand over the next 18 months.
This would be in addition to the global consumption of just over 100 million barrels a day.
Saudi Arabia has some room to respond. Nasser said Aramco’s maximum sustainable production capacity of 12 million barrels a day could be made available within days, with the company’s strategic reserves and operational flexibility intact.
But producing more crude is only part of the challenge. The conflict has highlighted the vulnerability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for Gulf oil and gas exports. Saudi Arabia has therefore been examining alternative ways of moving crude to international markets.
Aramco is studying additional export routes and more overseas storage, Nasser said. The company’s existing East-West pipeline allows Saudi crude to bypass Hormuz and reach Red Sea terminals, from where cargoes can move towards the Suez Canal or through the Bab el-Mandeb.
Nasser said that without the East-West pipeline, Brent crude could have risen to USD 200 a barrel. Therefore, Saudi Arabia has made the pipeline a crucial part of its strategy to maintain exports during disruptions in Gulf shipping routes.
Nasser said Aramco was working on “fourth and fifth” export routes as it seeks to reduce dependence on any single maritime chokepoint. The company is also exploring additional overseas storage to provide greater flexibility during short-term disruptions.
The company says it has continued meeting customer requirements despite the disruption. Gulf producers have also used their tanker fleets to move crude, helping exports recover towards pre-war levels, although security risks continue to weigh on shipping and insurance costs.
The threat extends beyond physical supply. Nasser said satellite imagery and detailed shipping data are increasingly being used by malicious actors to target oil infrastructure and vessels, adding a new layer of risk for producers and traders.
Nasser argued that energy security should be viewed as a long-term economic requirement rather than a cost to be minimised during periods of weak prices. His warning also underlines the difficulty of quickly replacing lost supply.
Even if Hormuz returns to normal and production recovers, rebuilding the inventories that protect consumers from future shocks will require sustained additional production. Until that happens, the global oil market will have a much smaller cushion against another disruption.
The message from the world’s largest crude exporter is therefore clear: the immediate supply crisis may ease before the market returns to normal. Restoring the oil industry’s emergency buffer could take years.