In its latest industry outlook, OPEC maintained its forecast for robust global oil demand growth in the next four years, apart from reiterating its longer-term view, citing a global shift towards more supportive policies for oil use.
As per the 11-member intergovernmental organisation, global oil demand would rise to 113.3 million bpd in 2030 from 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025. Compared to the 2025 report, the overall figures have remained little changed, while the 2030 forecast remains the same.
OPEC has steadily increased its long-term oil demand forecast in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, which in 2020 had prompted a demand contraction. Also, the organisation’s latest report comes amid the energy sector facing unprecedented challenges, as the Iran war has forced Gulf exporters to make huge export cuts, while the departure of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), an OPEC country for almost 60 years, created a void within the group.
“Changes in government policy in the US, Europe and elsewhere and long-term growth in India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America will drive the demand expansion, despite impressive progress by China in its shift to renewable energy,” OPEC said.
“The increased focus on energy security and energy affordability has shifted the energy policy landscape across the globe. This is reflected in policy adjustments and reversals, which are expected to be supportive of oil demand in the medium and long term,” the report stated further.
OPEC also cited factors like a slower-than-expected take-up of electric vehicles in Europe and policy changes by United States President Donald Trump’s administration affecting support for renewables, EVs and fuel efficiency standards.
“For the longer term, OPEC expects world oil demand to reach 124 million barrels per day by 2050, up from 122.9 million bpd expected in last year’s report, and reiterated its view that there is no peak demand on the horizon,” the report noted.
In contrast, the IEA (International Energy Agency) said in November 2025 that oil demand would hit 113 million bpd by mid-century. While the IEA’s 2050 forecast is much lower than OPEC’s, the agency had earlier expected demand to peak by 2029.
As per the ship-tracking data, the United States has become the world’s largest oil exporter in 2026, reflecting the boom in its output driven by shale oil and disruptions to Saudi and Russian exports by wars and sanctions.
“US output of tight crude, another term for shale, likely peaked in 2025 at just over 9 million bpd and sees modest total US liquids supply growth of 400,000 bpd until 2030 and a production plateau thereafter,” OPEC said.
The intergovernmental organisation expects production from countries outside OPEC+ (the wider group that includes OPEC members plus Russia and other allies) to peak from the early 2030s.
OPEC has been calling for more oil industry investment and said the sector needs spending worth USD 17.7 trillion by 2050, compared with USD 18.2 trillion estimated in 2025.