The Consultative Shipping Group (CSG), representing 18 major maritime nations and about a fifth of the world’s shipping tonnage, said the disruptions facing the industry were no longer isolated shocks but signs of a “structural shift” in the operating environment of global trade.
The group includes major shipping nations such as Singapore, Greece, Denmark, Japan, Canada, the UK, the Netherlands, and South Korea. Its intervention marks the first time in more than six decades that the CSG has issued a public statement on the state of global shipping.
“Without maritime trade, supply chains would fragment and the global economy as we know it would come to a sudden halt,” the group said.
At the heart of its concerns is the erosion of long-established principles of free navigation and neutrality for commercial vessels.
Brian Wessel, director-general of the Danish Maritime Authority and chairman of the CSG, said the group had decided to speak out because of growing concern about the fragmentation of maritime governance.
“For decades, we have built global trade on the assumption that ships can move freely across borders. That assumption is now under pressure,” Wessel said.
He also warned that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has long overlooked the global regulatory framework.
More than 80% of global trade by volume is carried by sea, according to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), making the reliability of shipping routes critical to everything from energy and food to manufactured goods.
The warning comes as the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, remains at the center of escalating tensions in the Middle East. Shipping traffic through the waterway has fallen sharply amid the US-Iran conflict and threats of further retaliation.
Only seven commodity vessels passed through Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters, compared with substantially higher traffic levels before the conflict. The data may understate activity because some vessels have switched off their automatic identification systems.
The consequences extend far beyond the Gulf. UNCTAD has warned that disruption at Hormuz can increase freight rates, bunker fuel costs, and insurance premiums while raising prices for energy, fertilisers, and food.
The organisation has also highlighted the particular vulnerability of developing economies with limited fiscal room to absorb higher transport and commodity costs.
Hormuz is not the only chokepoint under pressure. The Red Sea crisis has already forced many container ships to abandon the Suez Canal and sail around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to some journeys.
UNCTAD’s latest maritime transport review found that tonnage passing through the Suez Canal remained about 70% below 2023 levels by May 2025.
Ships that rerouted around Africa increased their travel distance, leading to higher fuel consumption, emissions, and operating costs.
The CSG is also increasingly concerned about the shadow fleet that has expanded in response to Western sanctions on Russia and Iran. More than 1,500 tankers are now estimated to operate within this opaque network, according to data cited by the Financial Times.
Many do not carry conventional insurance, creating additional risks for governments, ports, cargo owners, and marine insurers when accidents occur.
The rise of such vessels creates what maritime authorities describe as a two-tier shipping system: one operating under established safety, environmental, transparency, and insurance requirements, and another operating largely outside those frameworks.
The CSG has warned that this uneven application of rules could distort competition and weaken confidence in shipping as a reliable backbone of international commerce. It is calling for stronger international cooperation and consistent enforcement of existing maritime rules rather than a proliferation of unilateral measures.
That concern extends to proposals for new fees or tolls at strategic waterways. Iran has been discussing arrangements for managing shipping through Hormuz, raising fears among shipowners that a fee-paying regime at one major chokepoint could encourage similar measures elsewhere.
Pressure elsewhere in the maritime network compounds the problem.
The Panama Canal is facing renewed restrictions because of low water levels, with daily transits potentially falling to 27 from the normal 36-40.
The combination of climate-related constraints and geopolitical disruption is leaving shipping companies with fewer reliable alternatives.
UNCTAD has already warned that global maritime trade growth is weakening. After expanding 2.2% in 2024, seaborne trade was expected to grow by only 0.5% in 2025, while freight rates remained volatile and substantially affected by geopolitical developments.
For shipowners, insurers, and commodity traders, the latest warning therefore points to a risk that goes beyond another temporary freight shock.
The concern is that geopolitical conflict is gradually changing the architecture of global shipping itself—turning once predictable trade routes into strategic pressure points and making the rules governing the world’s maritime economy increasingly difficult to enforce.