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Trump’s Bitcoin dream collides with tariff reality

Trump's Bitcoin dream
Even without tariffs, Bitcoin mining is a brutally competitive, low-margin business, and that has only intensified in 2025

Upon returning to the White House, President Donald Trump pledged to make the United States the world’s Bitcoin mining superpower, insisting that Bitcoin should be “mined, minted, and made in the USA.” His administration has introduced crypto-friendly policies to support this ambition. These range from creating a government “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” to appointing a White House “crypto czar” and are all part of Trump’s promise to turn America into the global “crypto capital.”

The Republican also enacted legislation establishing a regulatory framework for dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies, commonly known as stablecoins, a milestone that could help normalise their use for everyday transactions and money transfers. The bill, called the GENIUS Act, was passed by the House of Representatives in July with a vote of 308 to 122, earning support from nearly half of the Democratic members and a majority of Republicans. It had previously cleared the Senate.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the new technology would buttress the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, expand access to the dollar economy, and boost demand for American Treasuries, which back stablecoins. Stablecoins are designed to maintain a constant value, usually a 1:1 US dollar peg, and their use has exploded, notably among crypto traders moving funds between tokens. The industry hopes they will enter mainstream use for sending and receiving payments instantly.

The new law also requires stablecoins to be backed by liquid assets, such as US dollars and short-term Treasury bills, and for issuers to disclose publicly the composition of their reserves monthly. Yet a stark contradiction lies at the heart of these plans, and we will use the Bitcoin example to explain this. Even as Trump champions an all-American “Crypto Vision,” he has unleashed steep import tariffs that jack up the cost of the very hardware US Bitcoin miners depend on, most of which is made in China.

This policy double-edged sword has left US miners, including the Trump family’s own mining company, caught between patriotic rhetoric and harsh economic reality. Industry experts warn that unless this contradiction is resolved, Trump’s dream of US dominance in Bitcoin mining may be undercut by the practical challenges his trade war has created.

Trump’s push for a Bitcoin mining empire

Trump’s recent policy moves mark a stunning 180-degree turn in the crypto world. After once calling Bitcoin a scam, he now openly courts the crypto industry. In his first months back in office, Trump fulfilled key crypto pledges by establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, stockpiling seized Bitcoins as national reserves, and replacing regulators seen as hostile to crypto with crypto-friendly figures.

For example, Trump ousted the prior Securities and Exchange Commission leadership, known for its aggressive stance on crypto, and installed former commissioner Paul Atkins, a pro-Bitcoin advocate, as SEC Chair. He also named tech investor David Sacks as “crypto and AI czar” to coordinate digital asset strategy and scheduled the White House’s first-ever crypto policy summit. All these steps signal that Trump’s administration is throwing its weight behind Bitcoin mining and blockchain businesses.

“Our country must be the leader in the field,” Trump has said of cryptocurrency. A centrepiece of Trump’s vision is for the US to dominate Bitcoin mining, the energy-intensive process that secures the Bitcoin network and mints new coins.

In July 2024, Donald Trump clearly addressed an enthusiastic crowd at the Bitcoin 2024 conference. He reiterated that America would become the undisputed Bitcoin mining capital of the planet. He explicitly called for an all-American Bitcoin: one mined on US soil with US-made equipment. To back miners, Trump has even floated using energy policy as a lever, hinting at measures to provide abundant, cheap power for mining farms.

All told, the administration’s message is clear. It wants Bitcoin’s future to be written in red, white, and blue, with American firms reaping the rewards of the crypto boom.

Global hardware arms race

Grasping the challenge requires first understanding how Bitcoin mining works. Bitcoin mining is a global hardware arms race. Miners worldwide run specialised computers (called ASICs) that race nonstop to solve cryptographic puzzles; the first to succeed earns the right to add a block of transactions to the blockchain and collect newly minted Bitcoins as a reward. The faster and more efficient your machines, the better your odds of winning this race and profiting.

Mining companies must constantly upgrade to cutting-edge hardware and newer rigs with more computational power and better energy efficiency or risk falling behind rivals. “To ensure their fleet is sufficiently powerful to beat out competitors, miners must constantly replace old and weather-beaten hardware with the latest, most advanced machines,” explains one industry report.

In short, access to top-notch mining rigs is crucial for any hope of profitability. Lagging in hardware is a quick road to being edged out of the market.

Here lies a fundamental tension for Trump’s “made in the USA” mining dream. The world’s best mining machines are not made in America. In fact, the global mining rig market is overwhelmingly dominated by Chinese manufacturers. Two companies from China, Bitmain Technologies and MicroBT, are kingpins of mining hardware, together accounting for an estimated 97% of all Bitcoin mining machine sales. A third Chinese-origin firm, Canaan, makes up much of the remainder.

These firms produce the popular Antminer and WhatsMiner series ASICs that power a huge share of Bitcoin’s network. According to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, this Chinese duopoly controls virtually the entire market for Bitcoin rigs. Bitmain and MicroBT’s near-monopoly didn’t happen by accident. They had an early start in developing specialised mining chips and achieved massive economies of scale, fending off countless would-be Western challengers.

“The road is lined with the corpses of people who tried,” jokes Chris Bendiksen, a Bitcoin research lead at CoinShares, about past failed US mining rig ventures. The result is a lopsided reality. While the United States now hosts a large share of Bitcoin mining operations (over 30% of global mining power is in North America), more than 90% of the physical machines powering the network are built in China.

This imbalance in geographic supply and demand means American miners remain heavily reliant on imported gear, and it’s not only an economic factor but also a strategic one. “Hundreds of thousands” of Chinese-made mining rigs are plugged into the US electrical grid, notes Sanjay Gupta, chief strategy officer of US-based manufacturer Auradine. It’s something that he and others consider a security risk if tensions with China worsen. In essence, China dominates Bitcoin’s hardware supply chain, and any American bid for mining supremacy must contend with that fact.

Tariffs backfire on US miners

Trump’s trademark policy tool—tariffs on imports—has now been extended to this supply chain, with far-reaching consequences. On April 2, 2025, the president shocked the crypto mining sector by announcing punitive new tariffs on dozens of countries, including those crucial to mining equipment production.

China was the primary target in Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariff package. Shipments of high-tech goods from China were set to face a whopping 55% import duty. But the measures went further. Trump also slapped tariffs in the range of 24–36% on imports from countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. These were the locations where Chinese companies often assemble mining rigs or route shipments to evade direct China–US duties.

In short, the administration moved to seal off any backdoor for Chinese-made miners, ensuring that whether a machine comes directly from Beijing or through a third country, it would incur steep US tariffs.

For US Bitcoin mining firms, which collectively import hundreds of thousands of ASIC rigs, these levies landed like a sledgehammer. Suddenly, the cost of new hardware could spiral by 25%, 50%, or even higher for Chinese-origin machines. “The tariffs included a levy on shipments from China, later revised to 55%, and tariffs between 24 and 36% on Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia,” WIRED reported, noting that many American miners “faced the prospect of spiralling hardware costs” as a result.

Even American Bitcoin, the new mining venture started by Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr., was not spared, as it too planned to source cutting-edge machines from the dominant Chinese suppliers. The irony was palpable. The president’s family business, launched to champion US mining, was now pinched by his trade policy.

Existing orders that US mining companies had placed with Bitmain or MicroBT suddenly became much more expensive, as any unfulfilled deliveries would be hit with the new import taxes. Long-term supply contracts offered no escape clause for tariffs, meaning miners were stuck either swallowing the additional costs or deferring equipment shipments altogether.

US miners, large and small, have decried the tariffs as a serious setback. One industry lobbying group, the Digital Energy Council, has reportedly pressed the Commerce Department to exempt cryptocurrency mining rigs from the tariff lists, warning that the policy could handicap American miners against foreign competitors.

“The tariffs are clearly destructive,” argues Chris Bendiksen of CoinShares, who says they directly undermine Trump’s goal of expanding the US mining sector. The situation indeed seems counterproductive. How can the US lead in Bitcoin mining if its miners struggle to afford the latest equipment?

In effect, Trump’s nationalist tariff policy is colliding with his nationalist crypto ambitions. The cost pressure comes at an already challenging time for miners, as we’ll see, intensifying a broader shakeout in the industry.

On the other hand, Trump officials insist this short-term pain is for a longer-term gain. The White House argues that two things can be accomplished at once. The tariffs can push manufacturing to American soil and use leverage to drive down other costs for mining firms.

“Two things can be accomplished at once,” a White House spokesperson told WIRED, describing the aim to onshore hardware production while using US energy policy to reduce miners’ cost burden.

In theory, by making imported rigs pricier, the tariffs create a protective bubble for United States-based equipment manufacturers to grow. Indeed, as the tariffs took effect, those few companies building Bitcoin rigs in America suddenly found an opening. Chief among them is a Silicon Valley start-up called Auradine.

Energy costs, margins, and competition

Even without tariffs, Bitcoin mining is a brutally competitive, low-margin business, and that has only intensified in 2025. Start with Bitcoin’s own design. The network undergoes a “halving” roughly every four years, cutting the block reward (the new Bitcoins miners earn) by 50%. The most recent halving in April 2024 slashed miners’ Bitcoin rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC, squeezing revenue per unit of computing power.

At the same time, network competition has grown fiercer as more miners join, and the Bitcoin algorithm adjusts to increase mining difficulty. This arms race, combined with occasional slumps in transaction fees, has steadily whittled down profit margins for mining operators.

Even though Bitcoin’s price has been rising in 2025, providing some relief, analysts note that many other factors are eroding mining profitability. “Fierce competition, a slump in transaction fees, and diminishing Bitcoin rewards… have whittled down margins for mining companies,” WIRED reports, summarising the challenge.

Above all, energy costs are the dominant factor. Electricity can account for 50–60% of a mining firm’s operating expenses. US miners have historically sought out regions with cheap power, ranging from hydro-rich Washington State to wind-powered West Texas. But the surge of new power-hungry industries is changing the equation.

Artificial intelligence data centres have emerged as a major new competitor for electricity and infrastructure. These AI operations are often backed by deep-pocketed tech companies and venture capital, and they’re willing to pay a premium for power and real estate. “Miners have always been scrappy buyers and vultures of the power grid. The AI companies are outbidding them, as they are just willing to pay more,” said Christopher Bendiksen.

In practical terms, that means some power contracts that might have gone to a Bitcoin mine are now going to a data centre instead, or utilities are raising rates knowing AI firms will pay. The US Department of Energy projects that by 2028, AI computing could consume as much electricity as 22% of US households—a stunning statistic that illustrates how much tighter the energy market could get for miners.

For miners, expensive electricity can quickly turn a profitable operation into a money-loser. Fred Thiel of Marathon has noted that a 5- or 10-percentage-point change in electricity rates has far more impact on a mine’s bottom line than a similar change in hardware costs.

Can the US lead Bitcoin mining?

All of this raises a pivotal question. Will Trump’s policies ultimately help or hurt US leadership in Bitcoin mining? The president’s vision of an all-American Bitcoin, mined on US soil with United States-made hardware, strengthening American economic and energy interests, is a bold nationalist gambit. It appeals to those who worry about US dependence on foreign technology and want to ensure the next generation of financial infrastructure is America-dominated.

In the long run, Trump’s tariffs may indeed spur some domestic manufacturing, as evidenced by Chinese firms localising production and startups like Auradine gaining traction. If the US can facilitate its own resilient supply chain for mining equipment and combine it with abundant low-cost energy, the country could solidify its status as a Bitcoin mining hub in the 2020s and beyond.

However, the current evidence suggests that Trump’s approach is struggling to deliver immediate results for miners. Thus far, the tariffs have introduced more instability than opportunity. US mining companies are pausing expansion plans and delaying hardware purchases while they wait to see how deeply costs will rise.

The initial 90-day suspension of the new levies has many in a holding pattern. But if and when full tariffs kick in, some firms may find it untenable to upgrade their fleets and could capitulate. The broader trend of miners diversifying away from Bitcoin or shifting overseas directly undercuts Trump’s goal of US dominance.

Ultimately, Trump’s dual objectives of onshoring the Bitcoin hardware supply chain and supporting a thriving US mining industry may require a more nuanced balancing act than tariffs alone can provide.

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