Oil prices slipped to a three-month low on June 15 after the announcements from the United States President Donald Trump and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, in which they declared Washington and Tehran were reaching an “initial deal” to end the three-month-long war and to resume maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures fell USD 3.65, or 4.2%, to USD 83.68 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate was at USD 80.75, down USD 4.13, or 4.9%. Both contracts fell to their lowest levels since March 10 on June 15 after tumbling more than 3% on June 12.
Trump said that while the Strait of Hormuz would be open “toll-free”, a US naval blockade of Iranian ports would also end. Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, on the other hand, said the draft deal called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.
The global energy market has lost millions of barrels of oil and gas supply since the beginning of the Iran war, which also saw domino effects like attacks on the Middle East’s energy facilities, apart from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime chokepoint through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies get transported.
“The geopolitical risk premium that had been built into crude is now being unwound quite aggressively as traders price in the prospect of restored oil flows,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, while interacting with Reuters.
Investors will also be watching cautiously how quickly Middle Eastern producers can resume oil production and exports following damages from the war and whether more ships will enter the region.
The extreme volatility of global oil prices, resulting from the Iran war, has drained liquidity from the market in 2026 at the fastest pace on record, with investors becoming increasingly cautious about committing cash to an asset that, for a month, became hostage to Trump’s daily social media posts on the “peace deal”. While a deal has been reached after days of flip-flops, the market is still expected to take a “wait-and-watch” approach.
As per the traders, Trump’s pattern of giving threats to Tehran through his Truth Social posts, only to assert later that a peace deal is imminent, as well as the difficulty in tracking real-world oil fundamentals, created a degree of fatigue among investors.
Liquidity, or how well matched the number of buyers is to the number of sellers, is a function of a number of factors, including traded volume and open interest (the number of Brent crude futures contracts that investors own). The latter has fallen by nearly 17% in 2026, the fastest rate since at least 2009, stated the LSEG data.
“While these uncertainties suggest upside risks to our forecast for Brent oil futures to reach USD 80/bbl by the end of the year, it’s worth noting that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz just need to reach 60%-70% of pre-war levels to return oil markets to pre-war oversupply expectations,” Vivek Dhar, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note.
As per Gharibabadi, a more expansive agreement would be negotiated during a 60-day ceasefire period.
E4 nations, which include the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy, have already announced their intentions to lift sanctions on Iran in response to the latter’s steps on its nuclear programme.
“Beyond the immediate price reaction, attention will now shift towards the pace of actual supply normalisation and compliance with the agreement. While the conflict may have come to an end and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may gradually return to normal, the damage already done cannot be reversed overnight. This includes not only any physical damage to oil infrastructure but also the economic strain endured by oil-importing economies that have faced elevated energy costs for months,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, while interacting with Reuters.